NB-IoT is still climbing
At present, the number of NB-IoT connections in my country has exceeded 120 million, and application innovation continues to deepen. Applications in fields such as water meters and gas meters have reached tens of millions, and there are millions of applications such as smart parking, smart street lights, and smart logistics. Fields are emerging.
Data shows that China Telecom currently has nearly 80 million NB-IoT users, ranks first in the world in the number of NB-IoT connections, and ranks first in the industry in NB market share. At the same time, China Telecom has also deployed the world's first remote multi-active NB-IoT device service platform in the field of IoT, which can provide services for more than 100 million IoT devices and ensure end-to-end business process security.
With the characteristics of wide coverage, low power consumption, low cost, and large connections, NB-IoT has become a mainstream technology in the field of cellular Internet of Things. The latest research data from market research organization CounterpointIoT shows that the number of global mobile IoT connections will exceed the 5 billion mark in 2025, of which NB-IoT will contribute nearly half.
In 2021, due to the large-scale application of NB-IoT, the production cost of chips will further decline. Even considering the recent shortage of chips and components, the overall price decline trend of NB-IoT modules will not change. With the deepening of intelligent urban management, the commercial deployment of NB-IoT will only further accelerate, which will lead to an increase in the utilization rate of NB-IoT base stations and the deployment of new base stations. However, it is only an optimistic estimate to expect that NB-IoT will have a "snowball" industrial effect after exceeding 1 billion connections. The main reason is that the application scenarios and access platforms of NB-IoT are still relatively scattered. From Metka Judging by the law, NB-IoT is currently in the accumulation stage of connection numbers, and the development inflection point has not yet arrived.
At the same time, NB-IoT also faces some challenges. Industry insiders believe that these challenges are reflected in three aspects: NB-IoT power consumption, network coverage, and business model.
One of the main advantages of NB-IoT is low power consumption. Currently, 2G modules are commonly used in the mobile Internet of Things. The power consumption of NB-IoT is slightly better than that of 2G, but it does not have a very obvious advantage when used in real-time at medium and high frequencies. However, the deep standby mode of NB-IoT The power consumption is similar to 2G power-down mode. Therefore, based on the current actual power consumption of NB-IoT modules, ten years of ultra-long standby time is unachievable. Therefore, in terms of low power consumption, the advantages of NB-IoT are not as great as expected. Therefore, the use of NB-IoT The motivation is not strong enough. In terms of network coverage, compared with 2G/3G/4G networks, NB-IoT's coverage and network quality need to be improved, which will also affect users' confidence in use. In terms of business model, even if the operator turns on the high-frequency service function, the annual NB-IoT tariff can be increased to 35~40 yuan. Although the ARPU value (average revenue per user) of the IoT business is increased, it will not affect the operator’s direct income. The contribution is still very limited.
LoRa powers indoor scenes
At present, there are more than 1 billion LoRa terminal access nodes worldwide. As the largest IoT application market, China accounts for nearly half of the number of LoRa node deployments. In some energy, public security, smart buildings, It is applied in industries such as electric power and military industry. Currently, LoRa technology is also being used in indoor scene applications, which will become the most anticipated market for LoRa.
LoRa first started abroad and has been applied in Europe, the United States and other countries, but its applications are relatively scattered. Compared with foreign countries, China started late, and the standardization of the LoRaWAN protocol is relatively poor, but it develops quickly, has rich applications, and is large-scale. As a technology similar to NB-IoT, LoRa's problems and challenges are mainly the lack of strong support from policies and operators. However, because LoRa has its applicable scenarios, the number of connections has been growing.
The problem of LoRa is serious fragmentation, which not only restricts the development of the LoRa industry, but also restricts the development of LoRa enterprises. Moreover, the current product richness cannot meet the needs of fragmented applications, and the market increment of existing domestic application fields is limited, which requires Find new application areas to expand the market. The power and household industries are currently turning to LoRa technology to solve problems.
From the perspective of the LoRa industry chain, compared with most other wireless communication technologies, in addition to its technical advantages, LoRa technology also has a rich and healthy industry chain ecology. It has now formed an ecosystem from LoRa chips, modules, A pattern in which gateways, terminals, platforms, system integrators, solution providers, Internet companies, telecom operators, etc. all participate.
Which areas have more opportunities?
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, IoT products such as non-contact long-distance thermometers, patrol drones, and epidemic prevention robots have been widely used in epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work and production. In 2021, these applications will be further upgraded. and will develop toward playing a role in healthcare. Forrester research predicts that the Internet of Things will enable active healthcare participation through wearable devices and sensors, which will be a major trend in IoT applications in 2021.
Forrester believes that consumers will have access to a greater variety of wireless connections in 2021. Not only 5G and mobile IoT devices, but Bluetooth, Zigbee and near field communications (NFC) are all solving similar IoT use cases. Forrester's report states. Interaction and active engagement will proliferate, such as wearable devices and sensors that can detect patients’ health conditions at home. Healthcare after COVID-19 will be dominated by digital healthcare experiences and will increase the effectiveness of virtual healthcare. The convenience of monitoring at home will spark consumer appreciation and interest in digital health devices as they gain a deeper understanding of their health. The price of digital medical devices will become more consumer-friendly.
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many patients to stay home or delayed necessary care, leaving chronic diseases uncontrolled and preventable diseases unattended. Medical institutions can use medical devices connected to the Internet of Things to improve their understanding of patient health and track the results of personalized medicine.
On the other hand, smart office utilization will also grow significantly, and Forrester expects at least 80% of companies to develop comprehensive strategies for future offices that include IoT applications to enhance employee safety and improve resource efficiency, such as smart lighting, power , energy, environmental monitoring and sensor-based space utilization, etc. Activity monitoring of high-traffic areas is necessary to prioritize site cleaning, manage congested areas, and modify office layouts to enable social distancing.