There is a great deal of concern about the future development of China's economy. China's economy still has to grow and develop, and we have to study clearly where the new growth points are. From now on, there are these two growth points:
One, all-round opening up
Opening up in the past has often been characterized by two phrases: expanding exports and attracting foreign investment. Expanding exports is to utilize the international market, and attracting foreign investment is to utilize international capital. At that time, we had just reformed and opened up, and it was right to choose this strategy. Because there was no domestic market at that time, we had to utilize the international market to expand exports. In the past, we were poor and lacked capital, so we had to attract foreign capital.
China's strategy has been in place for almost a couple of decades, but it is now encountering some resistance, so China must now move toward all-round opening up and let others ride on our "free ride". This kind of all-round opening up will certainly promote the further development of globalization.
Nowadays, academics divide globalization into three parts. The first was in 1750-1950, when the main way of globalization was colonization, driven by colonization. The end of World War II marked the end of globalization characterized by colonization.
Shandong, the busy port of Qingdao
The second globalization of human society was from 1950 to the present, and this time it was characterized by international trade. The WTO and the World Bank all arose during this period.
We only reformed and opened up in 1978, and had a strong latecomer's advantage. But the United States, as the initiator, had shifted its manufacturing outward, its domestic infrastructure was outdated, and workers' wages hadn't risen much in two decades. The United States took the lead in causing a wave of anti-globalization. Trump's rise to power is the inevitable result of anti-globalization.
The reason the West is a bit scared of China is our whole industrial chain. Five or six years ago I went to the United States to visit an economist, he said to me, you started out producing clothing, shoes, hats, socks, and then home appliances, home appliances and then automobiles, automobiles and then high-speed railroads, high-speed railroads and then IT, IT and then airplanes. You are the whole industry chain, and 1.4 billion people support the whole industry chain.
I estimate that human society may enter the third globalization, which is the global allocation of resources. Global allocation of resources can solve some of the shortcomings of the second globalization.
There are two aspects of resources for others to ride on the "free ride" of our resources. First, the huge domestic market. The Chinese people are getting rich, and the world was shocked by the scale of outbound travel of more than 100 million people last year. Opening up the market can boost China's economic growth in terms of consumption and supply, bringing new opportunities and development to China.
Police officers at the Qingdao airport border checkpoint clear customs for an outbound traveling family.
There will be a permanent import trade fair in Shanghai this year, and an export trade fair in Guangzhou, and accordingly import tariffs will be substantially reduced, including on commodities such as resources, technology and people's livelihoods.
Second, the huge excess capital. All-round opening of the service industry market, such as finance, education, health care and so on. In some areas, the upper limit of foreign shareholding is relaxed to 51 percent, and there will be no upper limit after three years. In addition, you can increase foreign investment, such as the "Belt and Road" to find a new outlet for Chinese capital.
China wants to lead the third globalization and promote the global allocation of technology, capital and labor.
Supply-side structural reform
The essence of supply-side structural reform is to find new growth-supporting industries for structural adjustment, which can't be simply understood as "three to go and one to drop", removing production capacity, removing inventories, removing leverage, and lowering costs. It is estimated that in the next seven years or so, there may be three industries to become the most important pillar industry to pull China's economic growth.
1. Strategic emerging industries
From the perspective of the next twenty years or so, strategic emerging industries mainly include eight points:
New energy -
Human society will definitely break out in the future of an energy revolution. New energy in recent years, technological breakthroughs are very big, five or six years ago when I found the research, technical route ideas are still very vague. But this year or two to take a look, the change has been great. I estimate that the new energy era does not have to wait until the distant future, may be a very fast thing. Last July I attended the Frankfurt auto show, the theme is called "elephant turn", many big manufacturers of prototype cars are basically new energy vehicles rather than traditional cars.
New materials--
Many industrial upgrades depend on material changes. The new materials field is going to grow a lot of black technology in the future, and it may all be made by small and medium-sized enterprises.
Recently in Guangdong research, they talked about one thing, a new materials science and technology park in South China, there are more than 400 private enterprises stationed. For example, now the biggest source of pollution is plastic bags, a company is ready to use soluble materials to produce film and plastic bags, after use buried in the ground for 24 hours will become carbohydrates. Now this soluble material cost a little higher, once the cost down, all plastic bags are made of soluble material, where is the pollution?
Bioengineering for life -
Bioengineering for life is extremely wide-ranging when it comes to hygiene, medical care, health, etc. I recently went to a lab where they told me that the future direction of human society will no longer be organ transplants, but organ reconstruction.
Information technology and mobile Internet--
There is still huge development in information technology and mobile Internet, and the prospects for both hardware and software are great.
Hardware, some key components we can not produce now, the country's annual imports of chips as much money as oil. I recently ran some research, I have a hunch that the innovation of hardware is about to be completed, once completed will be a huge market. And the end use of information, we and the United States has stood in the same starting line, some companies have even far more than them.
Energy saving and environmental protection--
If the wastewater and waste gas brought about by the industrialization and urbanization of human society cannot be treated, it is equivalent to not completing the industrialization and urbanization. We can handle general biological wastewater, but we have difficulties when it comes to chemical and hospital wastewater. The only way to realize energy saving and environmental protection in the future is to rely on technology.
New energy vehicles--
New energy vehicles to replace traditional cars is inevitable, not a distant future, is very soon.
Workers of a new energy automobile company in Qinghe county, Hebei province, are busy on the production line of electric cars.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE--
The era of artificial intelligence has quietly arrived, and some people say it is now the fourth industrialization: the first three were mechanization, electrification, and informatization, and now it is intelligence. China will vigorously promote artificial intelligence.
High-end equipment manufacturing--
We still have gaps in our high-end equipment manufacturing, and many medical equipment cannot be produced. Why do people have to run from county hospitals to provincial hospitals to see a doctor, because provincial hospitals have equipment, county hospitals do not. In the future, high-end equipment will be listed as a strategic emerging industry, to increase the development.
The eight strategic emerging industries, once developed, will bring us an incalculable amount of GDP each year.
2. Service industry
In the future, the service industry will become the second important industry to drive China's development. Services are population-based, and with our population approaching 1.4 billion, it is all the more important to develop it vigorously. Last year, for the first time, the contribution of our national consumption exceeded that of investment, and one of the important reasons for this is that the contribution of the service sector in consumption has risen sharply.
The next step is to continue to develop and divide the service industry into four major categories:
The first category, the consumer service industry. Including catering and commerce, elderly care and health;
The second category, business services. Including commercial services, family property management services, park management services, etc.
The third category, production services. Including technical services, design/outsourcing services, etc.
The fourth category, spiritual services. Including to meet people's spiritual needs, film and television, music, theater, tourism, leisure, entertainment, culture, publishing, sports and so on. The spiritual services industry provided us with 13 trillion dollars last year, and there is a very big prospect.
I estimate that there will be many new growth contributions and investment contributions in China's service sector in the future. Our country's opening up of the service sector to the international arena and the formation of the new immigration bureau is centered around this purpose.
3. Modern Manufacturing
Manufacturing is divided into traditional manufacturing and modern manufacturing. Where the production of private products (food and clothing), are called traditional manufacturing; production of public **** products called modern manufacturing. The traditional manufacturing industry gives us almost saturated support, but the public **** products are in serious shortage, the modern manufacturing industry that produces public **** products gradually rises to become the industry of support.
To vigorously develop the modern manufacturing industry, focusing on five points: first, aircraft manufacturing and spacecraft manufacturing; second, high-speed rail equipment manufacturing; third, nuclear power equipment manufacturing; fourth, extra-high-voltage power transmission devices; fifth, modern ships and modern marine equipment manufacturing. Once these five points are developed, the total amount of GDP provided to us every year is also quite huge.
Conclusion
The important driving force for our next growth will come from the supply-side structural reform, because the structural adjustment has to produce new supporting industries, and the development of these industries requires that China must have a technological discourse, and the technological discourse will influence and drive the development of related industries in China. (Excerpts, Wei Jie, director of the China Center for Economic Research at Tsinghua University)