2003 market price changes in the basic situation
1, the overall level of consumer prices rose by 1.7%. 2003 Baoji City, the consumer price index of 101.7, out of the situation in recent years has been declining, appearing to stop rising trend.
2, month by month, the trend of distribution for the "V" shape. 1-6 month consumer price index were 101.9, 101.5, 101.2, 101.5, 100.7, 99.8, in addition to April and May by the "SARS" epidemic. SARS" epidemic in April and May, some Chinese herbal medicines, proprietary Chinese medicine prices rose sharply to pull the total index rose, the other months were lower and lower trend, to reach the trough of the annual index in June and negative growth; July-December 100.4, 100.8, 100.8, 102.2, 105.2, 104.5, in addition to November because of the rapid rise in food and oil prices and the impact of the index rose for the year's highest rate of increase, the other months and month by month climbing trend.
3, quarterly, the trend is "U" shape. All quarters of the year than the index for the same period of 101.5, 100.7, 100.7, 104.0, showing two high and two flat trend, the second and third quarters of the annual index of the lowest point, the fourth quarter of the annual index of the highest point.
4, the classification of categories, eight categories of prices "five down three up". Compared with the previous year, food, health care, housing rose 7.9%, 2.7% and 1.8%, tobacco, alcohol and supplies, clothing, household equipment and maintenance services, transportation and communications, entertainment, education, cultural goods and services and other five categories of prices have declined to varying degrees, of which the largest decline is in the category of household equipment, a decline of 6.5%, and other decreases are between 1.5% -2.9%.
Analysis of factors affecting the market price changes
<a> food category is the direct cause of the rise in the overall level of prices
In 2003, food prices rose 7.9%, a direct impact on the total level of consumer prices rose by 2.71 percentage points, changing the situation in recent years continued to decline, and become a variety of prices in the leader. Food prices rose, mainly due to grain, oil, vegetables, meat and other prices.
1, food, oil prices all the way up. "Food for the first of everything, food prices are the base of the price of 100." Annual food, oil and grease price index rose 6.9% and 8.2% over the previous year. Especially since late October, rice, flour, oil prices rose sharply, rice per kilogram rose an average of 0.2 yuan, flour per bag (25 kilograms) rose up to more than 10 yuan, bulk oil rose about 1 yuan per kilogram, barrels of oil (5 liters) rose about 8 yuan per barrel, food and beverage areas tugging on the noodle, rice noodle per bowl rose by 0.5 yuan, semi-products of cut noodles rose by 0.40 yuan per kilogram, cooked products steamed buns also The price of cooked buns has also risen in disguise. As the price of food and oil rose, it also drove up the prices of foodstuffs related to this across the board. The main reason for the sharp rise in grain and oil prices is the reduction of crop planting area and the impact of natural disasters, so that the production of a general decline. 2003 Baoji City, the summer grain planting area than the previous year fell by 4.9%, a decline of 13.7% of the output, including a decline in the area of wheat by 5.2%, a decline of 14.1% of the output; oilseed area fell by 2.5%, a decline of 19.5% of the output; the fall in the area of grain fell by 5%, of which the area of corn fell by 5.5%. corn area down 5.5%. Coupled with the rainy and cloudy period during this year's fall sowing, part of the wheat missed the high-yield sowing period, and farmers have become even more reluctant to sell. From the national market situation, the main producing areas of grain and oil by the impact of natural disasters also caused a reduction in production, resulting in a wide range of market prices of grain and oil across the country. Grain and oil prices, from a historical perspective is a concentrated reflection of the situation of food production in recent years and the inevitable result of the role of the law of value, belonging to the downturn in recent years after the resumption of grain and oil prices rose. On the one hand, this is conducive to improving farmers' incentive to grow food and increase farmers' income; but on the other hand, rising food and oil prices have led to other related commodities to ride on the price hike, to the low-income residents of the city to increase a certain burden.
2, the high price of fresh vegetables. Annual price of fresh vegetables rose 36.2% over the previous year, of which in addition to a decline of 5.6% in June, the highest rate of increase in March, amounting to 74.3% in July and August also rose 12.9% and 22.4% respectively, other months are more than 30%. According to the survey, the impact of 2003 vegetable prices rose sharply factors: First, by the impact of changing weather conditions. After the Spring Festival, several "spring cold" widespread attack and severe drought, so that the vegetable field large areas frozen and inhibit the growth of vegetables. Climate change so that the amount of vegetables on the market significantly reduced, resulting in January-May vegetable prices have been relatively firm. Since the second half of the year, there have been many rainy and cloudy days and less light hours, coupled with the successive cropping of land in recent years has exacerbated the production of pests and diseases, which has had a significant impact on the amount of fresh vegetable production. Especially in late October, the real estate market supply of fine vegetables completed ahead of schedule, road vegetables delayed listing period, the distance between the stubble pull Ambassador real estate vegetable supply breaks and the price of one on the other, even in the high-yield period of edible fungi, but also due to other vegetable prices pulled and prices rose more. Secondly, the management links to increase the cost of rising costs. Baoji city's largest vegetable wholesale market in the People's Street, mainly to provide the transfer of fine vegetables market supply. As a result of the increase in 2003, a management link, so that a car of vegetables management fees as high as 800 yuan - 1,000 yuan, 2 times higher than the previous year. Third, transportation costs have risen. Transportation costs rose so that the trafficking of vegetables increased costs, freezing and rainy weather to the picking of vegetables, transportation also caused great inconvenience.
3, meat, poultry, eggs by the market supply and demand changes in prices. Baoji City District this year, the price of fresh eggs in the same period from January to August than has been hovering below the level, in March hit a record low since 88 years, an average of about 3.4 yuan per kilogram, the average price in June than the same period last year fell 12.4% in September began to stop rising in September and October than the same period last year, respectively, rose by 8.1% and 10.2%; but from the ring point of view , May began to climb out of the trough month by month. Annual fresh egg prices rose 2.2% over the previous year. Meat, poultry prices have been relatively stable since the beginning of the year, but after the summer, pork prices returned to the norm in previous years, appeared off-season, prices continue to rise. Especially after the lifting of the "SARS" epidemic, the catering industry full recovery, so that the market demand increased greatly, the annual price of meat, poultry and products rose 5.4% over the previous year.
< two & gt; industrial consumer prices are still declining trend
Due to the general oversupply of industrial consumer goods, buyer's market competition is fierce, clothing, household appliances, communication tools and other industrial consumer goods price cuts, discounts, promotions and other activities can be seen everywhere, resulting in the price of these goods are still in a downward trend. The annual price of alcohol and tobacco prices fell by 1.7% compared with the previous year, clothing prices fell by 1.5%, the price of consumer durables fell by 6.7%, the price of communication tools fell by 4.8%.
<three> gold prices, oil prices by the international market fluctuations
By the international market oil, gold price changes, Baoji city gasoline, diesel fuel prices compared with the previous year, respectively, rose 17.2% and 13.5%, liquefied petroleum gas prices rose 8.9% to gold, platinum jewelry-based jewelry prices rose 10.2%.
<4>"SARS" epidemic so that the price of Chinese herbal medicines rose sharply
By the "SARS" epidemic, the prevention of atypical pneumonia of a variety of Chinese herbs, disinfectants, Banlangen, antiviral agent prices rose sharply, resulting in the price of Chinese herbs and proprietary Chinese medicines. The prices of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines rose by 9.4% year-on-year, with the prices of Chinese herbal medicines rising by 25.5%.
From the 2003 market price trends and operating trends, prices in 2004 will still show a rising trend, mainly in: 1, agricultural prices will continue to run at a high level. Due to the long production cycle of agricultural products, affected by the market supply and demand, prices need a long process. 2004, especially in the first half of the price will continue to maintain the current level. 2, health care prices will slowly decline. Especially Chinese herbal medicine prices, with the "SARS" factors on the Chinese herbal medicine market impact of the weakening of its prices will be adjusted with the market gradually tend to be reasonable, but prices will still be running at a high level, the possibility of a momentary significant drop is unlikely to be. 3, the energy category of consumer goods prices will continue to rise. 4, by the impact of food, energy and other prices, the price of some industrial consumer goods. Related to this part of the industrial consumer goods prices will inevitably rise.