June 17, Tu Youyou team in the field of "artemisinin" research breakthrough sensational, became the catalyst for the day of the pharmaceutical stocks strong. This news also pulled the long-silent pharmaceutical stocks back into people's eyes.
In the A-share market, there has always been a "drink and eat medicine" argument. In the past, regardless of whether the market is a small drop, in the fall or a big fall, defensive plate inside, always less white wine and medicine. However, in the second half of April, this round of intermediate adjustment, white wine is still firm, medicine is down. 2019 year-to-date medicine index cumulative increase of 15.70%, performance is slightly worse than the CSI 300 22.41% of the increase; April so far Shenwan Pharmaceuticals and Biologicals Index fell by more than 10 percent.
There is too much negative news
1, first of all, let's talk about the recent bar. June 15, the Beijing medical consumption linkage comprehensive reform, following the drug "zero difference rate", medical supplies "zero difference rate "also gradually popularized in the country. Combined with the previous expectations about the inclusion of high-value consumables in the bandwagon procurement, the policy pressure on the field of consumables has increased steeply.
2, a little farther away, June 4, the Ministry of Finance website released a message that the State Ministry of Finance will be organized in June-July part of the Supervisory Bureau and the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government Department of Finance (Bureau) of the 77 pharmaceutical companies to start the financial verification work. This check focuses on the verification of sales costs.
3, the more distant some of the shortcomings is that we have long been familiar with the 4 + 7 city band purchasing, Chinese medicine drinks dragon dragonfly mine and so on.
In the medium and long term, in the direction of health care reform policy around the health insurance charge to promote the background, pharmaceutical stocks have opportunities?
In fact, similar to the band purchasing this "short", a little like the three public consumption of liquor, melamine in milk. Although the short-term impact on the industry as a whole, but also can stir up the clear, so that the real good company to stand out.
Industry growth momentum remains unchanged
For the pharmaceutical industry, the clichéd "population aging" is still its unchanging logic, that is, the certainty of the demand side is unchanged. It is predicted that the growth rate of health insurance expenditure will remain stable at around 10%-15% in 2018-2020, which means that the growth of the total pharmaceutical industry is certain.
By statistically analyzing the data of 285 listed pharmaceutical companies' accounts receivable and inventory, the growth rate of accounts receivable and inventory in the pharmaceutical industry has declined since the beginning of the first quarter of 2018 and 2019, combined with a significant improvement in the operating net cash flow, which fully demonstrates that listed pharmaceutical companies are beginning to focus on the quality of performance growth, and the industry has entered a benign The industry has entered into a benign development.
From the second half of 2018 to the present, the valuation system of the pharmaceutical industry has changed dramatically, and the PE of the Pharmaceutical and Biological (Shenwan) Index has fallen to a historical low. From the industry valuation situation, the current PE (TTM) of the biomedical index is 31.13 times, which is lower than the historical average valuation level. Among them, the four sub-sectors of pharmaceutical business, traditional Chinese medicine, medical services and medical devices are more below the historical average valuation level.
Summary
With the intensive introduction of the policy, the market on the band purchasing, high-value consumables price cuts and other policy landing has been fully expected, the current market continues to be the policy clearing stage, but gradually landing, is expected to usher in the policy shortcomings superimposed on the valuation of the switch of a new round of The uptrend.