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2019 January January 14 Catalog
? Cement supply-side reform continues, supply and demand game to explore regional opportunities (Northeast Securities)
? The capital market "pulling the bull's nose", grasp the "Chinese word" brokerage big opportunity (Tianfeng Securities)
? The new CES is full of highlights, AI, self-driving, 5G and many other points of view (Ping An Securities)
Driverless cars are intelligent cars that sense the road environment through the on-board sensing system, automatically plan driving routes, and control the vehicle to reach the predetermined target. At the end of 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formulated and released the "Action Plan for the Development of Internet of Vehicles (Intelligent Internet Connected Vehicles) Industry," to promote the integration of Internet of Vehicles (IOV) industry across all industries. On January 10, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei said that China will carry out 5G commercial promotion, and some areas will be issued 5G temporary licenses, with special emphasis on the network of cars, and in the future, China's road network should also be digitized and informationized, to build a large network system of cars, roads and people connected to each other. Tianfeng Securities pointed out that with the accelerated landing of 5G, unmanned driver will be gradually approaching.
Subdivision, unmanned need to sense, decision-making, implementation of the three levels of dozens of parts and components efficiently and stably work together in order to complete. The main products of the perception module are camera, LiDAR, millimeter wave radar, and high-precision map. The decision-making layer is biased towards software, which builds a corresponding model by reflecting back the information, and through analysis, develops the most suitable control strategy to drive instead of humans. The execution layer is mainly composed of three parts: electronic braking, electronic driving, and electronic steering. The entire driverless industry chain is mainly composed of OEMs, Tier1 (ADAS) manufacturers, and Tier2 (millimeter wave radar, electronic steering, electronic braking, etc.) manufacturers.
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the domestic LEVEL3 following the layout of the automated driving are more perfect, involved in the driverless perception layer of the company has completed the initial accumulation, the product is about to enter the batch supply stage. Among them, Huayu Automobile and Junsheng Electronics as a pioneer, the products have been successfully supporting the SAIC, Geely, Azure and other customers; and such as Desai Xivi, Huayang Group, Paulowne Technology and other latecomers have also gotten a number of car companies to the point of order, landing is imminent. The main products at the executive level are ESC (Electronic Stability Control), AEB (Emergency Autopilot System), EPB (Electronic Parking System), EPS (Electronic Power Steering) and so on. Top Group, Asia Pacific shares, Wanan Technology's first generation of products have been realized mass production, the new generation of products are also in the testing stage.
The cement industry continues to promote supply-side reform, while affected by multiple factors such as peak production, environmental production restrictions, mine management, etc., showing the characteristics of the off-season, since July, the cement plate relative to the CSI 300 has received the highest over 20% of the excess return, as of December 2018 also still maintains the excess return of more than 10%.
Northeast Securities pointed out that the cement plate market from 2016 to the present has experienced two stages, early 2016 to mid-2017, cement prices continue to rise, performance is gradually improving, valuation enhancement, the stock price rise performance and valuation **** the same drive, and then to date, although the cement price is still all the way up, but the valuation during this period Downward, on the stock price trip suppression. Important factors suppressing the valuation of cement on the one hand, the demand side of the pessimistic expectations of real estate investment and infrastructure boost vibration force confidence, on the other hand, the price of cement itself is currently in the history of the high, there are doubts about the future upside.
According to the statistics of digital cement network, in 2018, the national new ignition clinker production line **** 14 (including 1 technical reform project), the total new clinker production capacity of about 20.43 million tons, and the new clinker production capacity of 20.46 million tons in 2017 is basically the same, and the impact rate of the national production capacity of the total amount of about 1.1%. It is expected that the new ignition capacity in 2019 is mainly concentrated in the southwest and south China region. Digital Cement Network according to the current clinker production line under construction construction progress tracking, it is expected that in 2019 the new ignition clinker production capacity of about 25 million tons, of which 16 million tons in the first half of the year, divided into regions to see the two wide areas of the total of about 6 to 7 million tons, Yunnan and Guizhou provinces total of about 8 million tons, and the two wide and Yunnan and Guizhou regions ignition time more in the first half of the year, from the perspective of the impact rate of the capacity of Southwest China, South China The impact is greater.
Northeast Securities pointed out that China's cement industry in recent years, the pressure of new production capacity significantly reduced, but the problem of overcapacity still exists, the focus of the work of the clinker production capacity, so the elimination of backward production capacity, especially backward excess production capacity is particularly important. China Cement Association formulated the "cement industry to capacity action plan (2018 to 2020)" mentioned that three years to reduce clinker production capacity of 293 million tons, the closure of cement grinding station 540, grinding station number elimination ratio of 25%, so that the national clinker production capacity average utilization rate of 80%, the average utilization rate of cement production capacity of 70%, the clinker production capacity of the top ten enterprises to reach a concentration rate of 70%, cement capacity Concentration of cement production capacity of the top ten enterprises clinker production capacity concentration of 70%, cement production capacity concentration of 60%.
With the abolition of low standard cement, clinker demand and capacity utilization will be improved. According to Northeast Securities calculations, assuming that all P.C32.5 cement is converted to P.S.A32.5/P.P32.5/P.F32.5, it will lead to clinker demand growth of about 7%, and the clinker capacity utilization rate will be increased by about 6%; assuming that all P.C32.5 cement is converted to P.O42.5, and considering the equivalent strength of conversion, it will lead to clinker demand growth of about 12%, and the clinker capacity utilization rate will be increased by about 6%; assuming that all P.C32.5 cement is converted to P.O42.5, considering the equal strength of conversion, it will lead to the increase of about 12%, and the clinker demand growth of about 12%, and the clinker demand demand growth of about 12%. Clinker demand growth of about 12%, clinker capacity utilization rate increased by about 9%. The current capacity utilization rate in the north is generally lower than in the south, in the overall demand is not a significant decline in the premise of clinker overcapacity in the northern region will be alleviated, for the southern region, especially in the peak season, clinker supply will be more tight.
January 12, China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice Chairman Fang Xinghai emphasized the enhancement of equity financing, enhancement of the stock and futures market activity, the introduction of multi-short gaming tools, and promote the science and innovation board and pilot registration system as soon as possible. The Central Economic Work Conference has attached great importance to the reform of the capital market, Tianfeng Securities judgment is currently in the early stages of the improvement of regulatory policy, "the investment clock is pointing to the brokerage", brokerage stocks trend is good.
Tianfeng Securities firmly recommended large brokerage. Large brokerage firms have robust balance sheets, and some small and medium-sized brokerage firms such as Pacific are not representative of the industry in terms of impairment losses. The ratio of the size of financing funds below the close-out line/attributable shareholders' equity of large brokers is significantly lower than that of small and medium-sized brokers, while the ratio of credit/asset impairment accruals is much higher than that of small and medium-sized brokers.
January-December 2018 monthly financials show leading brokers are more robust relative to small and medium-sized brokers. Tianfeng Securities believes that the fundamentals of brokerage firms in 2019 to improve: capital market reform and policy correction + investment banking and direct investment business growth + financing costs downward + equity pledge business relief + concentration + stock market is at the bottom of the + high Beta. the average valuation of the securities industry 1.4x PB, the valuation of the large brokerage firms in the range of 0.9 to 1.4 times PB Ping An Securities analysis, 2019 CES main highlights are: ① Artificial Intelligence (AI): Artificial Intelligence is becoming the core of CES, AI has gradually infiltrated the life, life, production of intelligent applications; ② Internet of Vehicles / Automatic Driving: automatic driving and new energy vehicles have become a major hit at CES in recent years, major automakers will also show the latest advances in automatic driving technology; ② Automotive Networking / Automatic Driving: automatic driving and new energy vehicles have become a major hit at CES in recent years, major automakers will also showcase The latest progress in autonomous driving technology; ③ 5G communications: the shadow of 5G appeared in various locations at the show, and Qualcomm also announced that more than 30 5G devices will be available in 2019.
In terms of artificial intelligence, Ping An Securities believes that the current rapid development of artificial intelligence is mainly benefited from the overall improvement of three major elements: ① arithmetic power has been improved significantly, and the cost of computation has dropped significantly; ② algorithms have made significant breakthroughs, and deep learning algorithms have been widely used; and ③ massive data provide support for the algorithms to achieve and optimize. At present, the domestic artificial intelligence end-use products are abundant, computer vision, natural language processing, robotics and other technologies, are being y integrated with security, transportation, medical care, education and other traditional fields, in which automatic driving has become a key area in the field of artificial intelligence. On this year's CES, many car companies have released automatic driving concept models and related programs. 5G communication, human-vehicle interaction and other technologies are maturing and will also promote the development of Telematics, bringing more imagination to people's future driving experience.
Another highlight at this year's CES is 5G communication. Qualcomm said 2019 will be the "year of 5G", is expected to have more than 30 types of terminal equipment launched this year, the vast majority of which are smartphones, a number of 5G phones also appeared in the Qualcomm booth. Ping An Securities that, not surprisingly, in the first half of this year, 5G cell phones will be able to officially ship. In addition, Intel released the 5G era of "Snow Ridge", Snow Ridge is a new specialized for 5G wireless access and edge computing network system chip, Intel computing architecture will be introduced into the wireless access base station, and allows more computing functions in the network edge distribution.
Table 1 29 Companies with first-time buy ratings from agencies
Table 2 21 Companies with upgrades from agencies
Shennan Electric Co. Road last week released performance upward revision announcement, is expected to achieve full-year 2018 net profit of 672 million yuan to 717 million yuan, an increase of 50% to 60%, the performance of the sharp rise is due to the Nantong plant's capacity to climb the progress of the super-expected. It is understood that the planned capacity of the Nantong plant is 340,000 square meters per year.
CITIC Capital expects that the 5G macro base station PCB value volume in the 5G cycle peak close to 30 billion, communication base station PCB competition pattern is stable, the product technology threshold is high, the customer authentication cycle is long, the company is a segmented industry leader, the leading communications equipment vendors accounted for a high proportion of revenue, benefited from the performance of the 5G base station construction elasticity. At present, the company's communication customer demand is stable, 19-20 years at home and abroad 5G base station equipment orders are expected to exceed expectations, along with the Nantong plant capacity discharge, the company's revenue and gross margin is expected to continue to improve the performance is worth looking forward to.
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