A Tesla rumor puts the lithium battery industry in a state of ice and fire.
On February 18, according to Reuters, a participant in the negotiations between Tesla and CATL revealed specific details, saying that domestic Tesla will use cobalt-free batteries produced by CATL. Judging from the current technology, the only "cobalt-free" battery with practical value is lithium iron phosphate.
One stone stirred up a thousand waves. On February 19, lithium battery-related stock markets became polarized.
On the one hand, cobalt stocks fell sharply at the opening, with Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) and Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) both falling by the limit. On the Hong Kong stock market, the cobalt sector also fell collectively, with Jinchuan International falling by more than 12 and China Molybdenum falling by more than 10.
On the contrary, lithium iron phosphate battery companies such as BYD (002594.SZ) and Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.SZ), as well as German Nano (300769.SZ) and China Baoan (000009 .SZ), Xiangtan Electrochemical (002125.SZ), Fengyuan Co., Ltd. ((002805.SZ), Guanghua Technology (002741.SZ) and other lithium iron phosphate cathode material companies have been soaring, among which Xiangtan Electrochemical, Defang Nano, Fengyuan Co., Ltd. Waiting for multiple stocks to hit their daily limit.
On February 19, CATL stated to the test drive report that “CATL has the ability to provide appropriate and competitive solutions based on customer needs and bring value to customers. "As for the specific cooperation with Tesla, no reply was given.
A senior CATL R&D staff told the test drive report, "The cooperation between the two parties involves commercial secrets, and we are not aware of it at the moment. ”
On the same day, as of press time, Tesla has not given a clear response to this related issue with the test drive report.
As for whether domestic Tesla uses CATL lithium iron phosphate batteries, it is still unclear. It’s still an unknown mystery, but the industry has exploded.
On the one hand, the stock price of the investment market is polarized. On the other hand, due to the emergence of BYD’s blade battery at the end of last year, Tesla is now. Immediately afterwards, whether lithium iron phosphate can revive in the field of passenger cars has once again become the focus of discussion in the industry.
It is worth mentioning that at almost the same time, a Tesla insider revealed, Tesla will independently develop new batteries and is expected to announce specific information on battery components at the battery investor meeting in April, which will undoubtedly be another blow to the chaotic new energy landscape.
Although the above information needs to be further confirmed, Tesla’s series of operations have made the battery industry full of confusion.
On February 19, lithium battery analyst Wang Ke told the test drive report, “Station. From the perspective of the battery industry, Tesla will gradually transform from a huge battery demand side to a supply side, which will have a profound impact on the electric vehicle and power battery industry, and even bring about a reshuffle of the A-share battery industry. "
Lithium iron phosphate begins the battle for revival
Since January 2018, BYD, the largest domestic manufacturer of lithium iron phosphate batteries, announced that all its new energy passenger vehicles will use ternary batteries, phosphoric acid The dispute over the lithium battery technology routes between iron lithium and ternary lithium seems to have come to an end.
For a time, passenger cars were mainly based on ternary lithium with higher energy density, while passenger cars were mainly based on lithium iron phosphate. It has begun to become the most common knowledge in the industry.
However, a rumor about Tesla's battery technology change has suddenly changed the situation of both parties.
The stock prices of lithium iron phosphate-related companies have surged. Cobalt stocks, which are closely related to ternary lithium, once hit the daily limit. Behind Tesla's huge influence, whether lithium iron phosphate batteries really have a market opportunity is thought-provoking.
February. On the 19th, a lithium battery R&D engineer told a test drive report, "The new energy industry has changed too fast in 2019. In the first half of the year, spontaneous combustion incidents have been widespread, and the safety of lithium batteries has increased to unprecedented heights; in the second half of the year, subsidies have declined, and costs have been reflected in battery selection. The weight has increased significantly; with the improvement of supporting facilities, the weight of energy density that emphasizes bicycle endurance has decreased significantly. In order to survive, companies must always respond in time.
"
The market environment is changing, industry trends are changing, and technology choices will naturally change accordingly. The engineer said, "Lithium iron phosphate focuses on safety, longevity, and relative cheapness, while ternary lithium batteries The energy density is particularly prominent. Everyone knew that with the advancement of technology, lithium iron phosphate would have a second chance of development, but they didn’t expect it to be so fast. ”
Time changes and it is easy to use it in the spiral development of lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium. In fact, signs of the renaissance of lithium iron phosphate have long surfaced.
In 2019, CATL released a new module-less battery pack with CTP technology. Compared with traditional battery packs currently on the market, the volume utilization of CTP battery packs is increased by 15-20%, the production efficiency is increased by 50%, and the energy density of the battery pack can be Reaching more than 200Wh/kg.
More importantly, according to Guojun New Energy data, the cost of domestic lithium iron phosphate batteries is 0.65 yuan/Wh, which is far lower than the 0.85 yuan/Wh of ternary lithium batteries.
Whether it is from a technological breakthrough level or a cost level, CATL’s CTP batteries have balanced Tesla’s needs for cost and performance to a certain extent.
Coincidentally, in 2020 1. In August, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu revealed BYD's latest secret weapon at the 100-person meeting for electric vehicles:
According to Wang Chuanfu, the "blade battery" is a new generation of lithium iron phosphate battery with an increased volume specific energy density. 50, with the characteristics of high safety and long life. BYD "Han" will be the world's first model equipped with "Blade Battery", which is expected to be launched in June this year.
Byd and Tesla. Under the instigation of lithium iron phosphate, which has more cost and safety advantages, it is very likely to take this opportunity to gain a foothold and disrupt the existing pattern of lithium batteries. At the same time, Tesla's self-developed batteries will undoubtedly disrupt the battery industry. "X" factor.
Is the power battery "wolf" coming again?
It's no secret that Tesla wants to develop its own power batteries, but it has always been a big deal. It’s a bit small and there is no real progress. But this time, it seems to be serious.
Wang Ke told the test drive report, “From the information I have so far, Tesla’s self-developed power battery. The probability is high. On the one hand, Tesla’s ambition to control power batteries is well known. On the other hand, Tesla has indeed been in the battery field for a long time. ”
Judging from Tesla’s development history, Tesla has always sought help from others rather than itself.
For example, Tesla initially used many Taiwanese suppliers, but later felt that Technologies such as motor electronic control are too core and must be mastered by oneself, so the suppliers who used to provide core technologies have been downgraded to second-tier suppliers providing stators and rotors.
Now. , among the core components, only the power battery has failed to achieve self-research, and Tesla has long been dissatisfied with its power battery partners.
As early as the beginning of Model 3 mass production, Tesla. When delivery was pushed back and forth, Musk publicly blamed Panasonic's battery production schedule for the poor delivery. Subsequently, Tesla frequently caught fire, and the conflict between the two parties deepened.
Until early 2020, Tesla chose LG. , CATL as a new battery partner; Panasonic implemented in-depth cooperation with Toyota at almost the same time, and the two parties parted ways.
At the same time, Tesla’s battery layout gradually emerged.
In May 2019, Tesla acquired supercapacitor and battery manufacturing company Maxwell; in October of the same year, Canadian battery manufacturing company Hibar Systems appeared on the list of Tesla subsidiaries; in December, Tesla also Applied for a patent for battery technology; recently, foreign media reported that Tesla is building a battery cell trial production line at its factory in Fremont, California.
There are various signs that Tesla. Brand power battery cells have been put on the agenda. After improving the self-research of core components, Tesla has become one of the few new energy car companies in the world that has the entire industry chain research and development of core components.
Since Tesla's localization at the end of 2019, every move Tesla makes has caused huge changes in the new energy industry.
Tesla accelerates localization, and related parts and components boss companies are expected to rise; Tesla has included CATL as a supplier, and CATL once hit the daily limit, with its market value exceeding 350 billion. Nowadays, Tesla's technology trend has turned to lithium iron phosphate, and the lithium battery capital market is in a state of ice and fire.
Tesla’s impact on China’s new energy market may be much greater than imagined.
After the liberalization of new energy industry policies, there has been a cry of "wolf is coming" in the industry. Japanese and Korean power battery giants are making a comeback, and the wolf is coming; in 2020, joint venture car companies will focus on new energy, and the wolf is coming. Perhaps Tesla is the most ferocious wolf.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.