Currently, the pressure of rising prices has not yet been fundamentally alleviated, but from the trend of domestic prices of agricultural products, the trend of international commodity prices, the subprime crisis, the trend of changes in international monetary liquidity and the trend in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, China's control of price increases have a more favorable environment both at home and abroad. Price rises have a more favorable environment at home and abroad, price control policy effect in 2009 will be further apparent. At the same time, the subprime mortgage crisis on the real economy of the world countries continue to intensify the destructive effect, China's business difficulties in the situation has been from the export sector to the domestic demand for industrial conduction, from the coastal areas to the conduction of the interior, from small and medium-sized enterprises to the transmission of large enterprises, a number of regions and industries, the growth rate of the fall too fast, the risk of rapid economic downturn in the gradual increase. It is suggested that in 2009, "maintaining stable and relatively rapid economic development and promoting economic structural transformation and upgrading" should be taken as the primary policy objective of macro-control. The reason why "maintaining growth" and "promoting transformation" are listed as the primary policy objectives is that the total and structural contradictions in China's current economic operation are equally prominent, and the solution to the current economic difficulties requires not only a moderate relaxation of the total policy, but also, and more importantly, a restructuring of the economic structure through structural transformation and upgrading. More importantly, it is only through the transformation and upgrading of economic structure that we can reconstruct the new vitality of China's economic growth and regain the new international competitiveness of China's economy. The combination of "maintaining growth" and "promoting transformation" as the primary policy objectives is conducive to further unifying the thoughts and actions of the whole Party and the whole country in dealing with the complicated situation, better guiding the development enthusiasm of governments and enterprises at all levels to the implementation of the scientific concept of development, and preventing the development of the economy for the sake of "maintaining growth". The "guarantee growth" to return to the old road of crude development.
(2) Implement a proactive fiscal policy and give more play to the role of the market in allocating resources
It is recommended that a proactive fiscal policy be implemented in 2009. Different from the positive fiscal policy implemented in response to the Asian financial crisis, this time not only to expand government investment in construction, the government allocation of resources to focus on doing big things, but also to emphasize the allocation of resources through the market to promote the transformation and upgrading of economic structure. Through the tax cuts to reduce the cost of enterprises and the burden on residents, to enhance the enthusiasm of enterprises to invest and residents to consume.
Increasing financial support for structural transformation, it is proposed that the value-added tax (VAT) transformation reform be fully implemented nationwide in 2009 to promote the upgrading of enterprises' equipment and facilities. In the process of transitioning from production-based VAT to consumption-based VAT, it will stimulate an increase in investment, which will be conducive to capital formation and promote economic growth. According to our calculations using the CGE model, in the first year of the implementation of consumption-based VAT, the growth rate of total nominal investment increased by 2.25 percentage points, and total real investment increased by 1.16 percentage points, and the promotion of investment has been expanding year by year. The higher investment growth rate will lead to an increase in the output and economic efficiency of the whole economy, which can increase the nominal GDP growth rate by 1.22 percentage points, and the real GDP growth rate will increase by 0.86 percentage points, and this effect will remain basically stable in the next ten years. Model simulation results show that in the first year of the introduction of a consumption-based VAT, the employed labor force increases by about 2 million people. The VAT transition has a two-fold effect on employment; on the one hand, it makes firms increase their capital investment, which will reduce the demand for labor; on the other hand, it will bring about an increase in firms' output, which will lead to an increase in the employment of the labor force. The results show that the promotion effect of increased output on employment is greater than the substitution effect of increased investment on labor. It is necessary to establish a stable growth mechanism for financial investment in science and technology, increase support for public welfare scientific research institutions and public welfare industry scientific research, and support the revitalization of the domestic major equipment manufacturing industry and the development of national strategic industries. Carry out enterprise innovation risk investment pilot, for enterprise technology innovation to create a favorable policy environment.
It is proposed that in 2009, the central government issue long-term construction bonds or expand the scale of investment within the budget to 200 billion yuan, focusing on post-disaster reconstruction, national key infrastructure projects, energy conservation, emission reduction and structural upgrading and other industrial development projects, and support for the "Three Rural Areas" project, etc., by using bank matching loans, absorbing private funds, etc., to expand the national bonds. The government will use bank loans and private capital to expand the role of national bond investment.
(C) the implementation of flexible and prudent monetary policy, and enhance financial support for economic growth
2009 China's monetary liquidity situation there is greater uncertainty. Both because of the subprime crisis further deterioration of domestic financial institutions on the domestic economic situation and corporate profitability outlook is expected to turn bad, the widespread emergence of "loan shyness" phenomenon, while the international "hot money" a large number of withdrawal, resulting in China's credit market, the capital market and the money market, the volume of transactions has shrunk significantly, suddenly from a large amount of money to a large amount of money. Transaction volume has shrunk significantly, suddenly changed from excess liquidity to insufficient liquidity, enterprise production and operation activities of the serious shortage of funds; may also be because of China's economic performance is significantly better than other countries so that the international "hot money" continues to flow into our country, the continuation of our country has been the existence of the situation of the currency passive injection, resulting in excess liquidity in the banking system. Excess liquidity in the banking system. In the face of uncertainty, the implementation of tightening or expansionary monetary policy is not appropriate, so it is recommended that in 2009 the implementation of flexible and prudent monetary policy, the monetary authorities should be based on the actual situation of changes in currency liquidity, flexible adjustment of the statutory reserve requirement ratio and interest rates on deposits and loans, the growth rate of the broad money supply is controlled at 16% to 17%, the abolition of the credit quota management, the focus on strengthening the structure of the credit to guide the emphasis on small and medium-sized enterprises loans, while guiding the capital to the Small and medium-sized enterprise loans at the same time, guide funds to structural adjustment, independent innovation, energy saving and environmental protection and national bond project supporting tilt, to better play the unique role of monetary policy in "promoting transformation".
(D) increase the government's investment in protective housing, stabilize the real estate market
Real estate prices rose too fast in the past few years, beyond the affordability of urban residents, the adjustment is inevitable. Regulation of the real estate market to improve the supply structure and meet the demand for self-occupation as a guide, not only to promote the rational return of prices, but also to guard against the superposition of multiple unfavorable factors leading to excessive market adjustment. Improve the supply structure, increase the supply of land for low-cost housing, affordable housing and ordinary housing, increase the supply of sheltered housing and ordinary housing, and large and medium-sized cities should expand the government's investment in sheltered housing to improve the housing security system. Financial institutions should carry out risk assessment of real estate investment projects in the implementation, to ensure normal loans for ordinary residential and affordable housing and other real estate projects, to stabilize the scale of real estate investment, to ensure normal construction and completion of real estate investment projects in the implementation, to prevent the emergence of a large area due to the breakage of the capital chain, "rotten buildings" phenomenon. To allow listed real estate companies and other high-quality real estate companies to raise funds through the corporate bond market, to encourage mergers and acquisitions in the real estate industry. Previously introduced to raise the residential transaction tax instead of increasing the burden of home buyers, should be canceled in a timely manner. It is recommended to reduce the deed tax, stamp duty and land value-added tax for residents to buy their first home, and to give residents preferential interest rates for loans to buy their first home, so as to attract residents to enter the market in large numbers when housing prices fall back to a reasonable level.
(E) improve consumption policy, further tap the potential for consumption growth
To deepen the party's understanding of the importance of expanding consumption, the future of China's economy is bound to be the new growth point of the 1.3 billion people's consumption demand, the most important aspect of the structural transformation of the economy is the structure of demand from relying mainly on external demand to relying mainly on the upgrading of urban and rural residents' consumption. To increase the income of urban and rural residents by all means from the macro-income distribution, it is recommended to raise the deduction standard for salary income to 3,000 yuan, to exempt the dividends paid by listed companies in the securities market from capital gains tax, and to comprehensively clean up all kinds of taxes and fees levied on urban and rural residents, exempting them wherever possible, and reducing them wherever possible to alleviate the tax burden on low-income earners, and to increase the real disposable income of the residents. Financial expenditures should be skewed toward urban and rural residents, increasing government expenditures at all levels on public *** health and medical care, compulsory education, pensions, guaranteed housing, rural roads, and urban and rural consumer infrastructure, so as to effectively alleviate the worries of urban and rural residents. It is implementing a proactive employment policy, expanding employment in urban and rural areas, putting into effect policies related to the Regulations for the Implementation of the Labor Contract Law, and raising the minimum wage standard in all areas in accordance with changes in price levels. Increase investment in the construction of rural commerce and circulation systems and cultural service facilities, and improve the rural consumer environment. Improve the consumption tax system and guide residents to reasonable consumption. Vigorously develop tourism, culture, sports and other service-oriented consumption, and cultivate new consumption hot spots.
(F) improve foreign trade policy, to help export-oriented enterprises to tide over the difficulties
Suggested to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, weaken the RMB appreciation expectations, eliminate the subprime crisis on China's exports of the exchange rate transmission mechanism, to avoid the exchange rate to become the U.S. policy tool to transfer the crisis. After the worsening of the subprime crisis, developed countries will have more trade barriers in the future, trade protection measures will be used more frequently, and trade friction between China and foreign countries will further increase. For this reason, the Chinese government and enterprises should have the foresight to do a good job of coping with the measures, pragmatic and effective solution to the disputes that may arise in Sino-foreign trade. If necessary, they can also join hands with other relevant countries to resist, under the framework of the WTO, the possible practice of transferring the crisis to the international community through trade protection by developed countries. The different technological content and value-added content of labor-intensive products can be refined, and the export tax rebate rate can be further increased for the encouraged products in the textile and light industry. Focus on supporting the export of independent brand products and high-tech value-added products, raise the export tax rebate rate for electromechanical products with high technical content, increase credit support for foreign trade enterprises, and help enterprises to speed up the establishment and improvement of independent international marketing networks and after-sales service systems; small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises should be given certain support in terms of capital and technology to help them tide over the difficult times through technological upgrading. Continue to strictly control the export of grain, fertilizer, steel, coal and coke and other "two high and one capital" products. Efforts to expand imports of important resources, advanced technology and equipment and key components.
(VII) seize the favorable opportunity to rationalize resource and energy prices
Currently, the domestic price of agricultural products to gradually reduce the pressure of rising prices, the international oil and other commodity prices fell across the board, for our country to rationalize resource and energy prices, reform of resource and energy price formation mechanism provides a favorable opportunity. To address both the symptoms and the root causes, to address the root causes, determined to launch the timely reform of the price formation mechanism of refined oil products, speed up the pace of electricity price reform, and promote the formation of a reasonable electricity price mechanism. The main use of economic means to solve the current electricity and coal, refined oil, heating and other price-induced conflicts between supply and demand, and do a good job of electricity, coal, refined oil, heating and other supply security, from the supply side to protect the normal order of production and life. To further strengthen the demand-side management of electricity, curb unreasonable demand. Reform the resource tax and fee system, improve the system of paid use of resources and ecological compensation mechanism.
(H) rational use of foreign exchange resources, the integration of international resources for China to expand domestic demand used
China's foreign exchange reserves, but the relative lack of natural resources per capita, many resources of the high degree of dependence on the outside world, China's pre-international product pricing power is often in a passive situation. This financial crisis triggered by the global asset price adjustment, just for China to provide an opportunity for integration. Future expansion of China's domestic demand requires a huge amount of resources, and the developed countries this unrestricted injection of currency liquidity into the financial market so that China's foreign exchange assets have the possibility of long-term depreciation, we must seize the opportunity to foreign exchange currency assets more converted to strategic resource assets. Should be through the acquisition of oil resources, mineral resources, international enterprises have shares or even access to relative control to improve the reliability of China's resource security, enhance China's international pricing of important resources of the right to speak, the foreign exchange currency assets are more converted to physical assets, for China to expand domestic demand to provide long-term resource supply security.