Pharmaceuticals have been quiet for a long time recently finally had a wave of outbreak.
Data show that on October 12 - 20 of the seven trading days, 800 medical and health (CSI Medicine and Health Index) rose 12.38%, of which the 14th day of the day rose 7.91%.
However, many of our partners who hold pharmaceutical-themed funds are afraid that they still can't be happy.
Some people in the relevant platform on the message that: their pharmaceutical theme fund from the return of capital is still 35 points (as of 10-20), why is someone said to have returned to the capital?
This is actually quite normal.
Even if it's the same fund, getting on at a different point in time will result in different returns.
Then if you extend the scope to the same theme of the fund, heavy positions in the sub-track may be different or the same stock positions are high and low, then the performance of the big difference is even more normal.
In view of this, the next we will pick up, this wave of pharmaceutical rebound market, "blood" in front of what funds .
One of the logic behind the pharmaceutical rebound
Why did the pharmaceuticals suddenly rebound?
The reason for this, the market summarized three aspects.
First, policy warm winds blow frequently.
On October 12, the National Health Insurance Administration made a response to the proposal of "negotiated drug renewal", which highlights the new "simple renewal" rule in this year's national health insurance negotiations.
Back in September of this year, the NHI published its "Reply to Recommendation No. 4955 of the Fifth Session of the 13th National People's Congress". The Response mentioned that in the process of centralized banded purchasing, medical institutions determine the purchasing volume based on historical usage, combined with clinical usage and medical technology advancement. As the clinical use of innovative medical devices is not yet mature, the use of the volume is temporarily difficult to predict, it is still difficult to implement the banded approach.
......
The market generally interpreted this as saying that policies related to the pharmaceutical industry are easing.
Secondly,Pharmaceutical companies in the third quarter earnings forecast is not bad.
Choice data show that as of October 21, *** counting 48 pharmaceutical companies disclosed performance forecasts, pre-increase, slightly increase, continue to surplus for 44. One of the nine Ann medical is riding high, net profit rose more than 300 times.
Lastly is the valuation, two words: cheap.
From the valuation point of view, as of October 21, 800 medical PE valuation of 29.04 times, located in nearly 10 years since the 11.72% valuation quartile, equal to lower than the history of more than 88% of the time interval.
Of course, if you look at the long term, you will also find a reason why medicine is a "long slope thick snow" track.
What does it mean? Simply put, in the context of an aging population and increasing levels of consumption, the long-term outlook for the pharmaceutical industry is unquestionable.
Given so many good plus, brokers right now also actively run out of shouting, the general meaning is pharmaceutical plate continues to rebound at the time.
Second, 7 days up nearly 17%, the best performing active equity fund is it
After finishing the industry, and then the fund.
Many people think of Glenn when they think of pharmaceuticals.
But the fact is that the best performer, either within 7 days (Oct. 12-20, same below) or in a single day on the 14th, is not CEE Healthcare A.
Hardcore Fund Selection has screened out, based on the data, the active equity funds whose fund's No. 1 long position in the industry (2022-06-30) is Pharmaceuticals (CITIC), and which account for more than 30% of their net worth ratio, and whose size is higher than 100 million yuan (including common equity, biased hybrid, and flexible allocation),*** there are 149 (counting A share only).
Let's look at the single day of Oct. 14 first. The best performer on that day was the Genworth Healthcare Sector A, which returned 10.52%.
This fund was founded in August 2016 and has a latest (2022-06-30) size of $366 million.
From the fund's second-quarter report position, its top 10 long position concentration of 67.69%, mainly laid out the medical device stocks such as Wantai Biologicals, Ai Bo Medical, Bai Ren Medical, and medical service stocks such as Medicilon, Zhaoyan New Drugs, and Kameiying.
Medical equipment is one of the most dazzling performance in this round of pharmaceutical rebound in the segmentation track. Data show that in the seven days from October 12-20, the CSI medical equipment index rose 14.61%.
Performance-wise, Genworth Healthcare Sector A is down 22.03% so far this year (as of 10-20), ranking in the middle of the pack among similar funds. But its total return performance over the last 5 years, and since inception, is still good, ranking in the top of its category.
Next, stretching it out to 7 days, then the best-performing pharma fund is the Eversheds Healthcare sector, with an interval return of 16.72%.
This fund was launched in February 2016 and has a latest (2022-06-30) size of $287 million.
From the fund's second-quarter report position, the concentration of its top ten long positions is 53.74%, focusing on the layout of the chemical pharmaceutical sector of Huahai Pharmaceuticals, Tonghe Pharmaceuticals, Beida Pharmaceuticals, etc., as well as health care services of the Pharmaceuticals, Kanglong Chemistry, Nine Continents Pharmaceuticals, Medicine Stone Technology, etc..
It's worth noting that this is a quantitative fund, and its strategy is to combine qualitative and quantitative analysis to find high-quality listed companies in the healthcare sector.
In the second-quarter report, fund manager Zhou Sicong has said he continues to be optimistic about innovative medicines, traditional Chinese medicine, vaccines, testing, APIs, medical outsourcing services and other sub-sectors related to the epidemic.
Returning to Dreamwon, her Farmers Union Healthcare theme has also been a relatively strong performer in this rally, up 13.79 percent in seven days.
African Bank Hurley Healthcare Theme was founded in February 2015, with a latest (2022-06-30) size of $2.192 billion, and current fund manager Dream Round served until February 2021.
Tracing back, the "90" fund manager will be on fire because of a screenshot circulated online, screenshot shows that as of March 8, 2021, that is, just 12 days of Meng Yuan's tenure, the best fund during his tenure retracement of nearly 10%.
Now that more than a year has passed, Dreamland's total return (as of 10-20) of -39.30% is still at the back of the pack.
From the fund's second-quarter report position, the concentration of its top ten stocks is lower, 44.3%, lower than the average of 48.19% of the same category, heavy positions in a number of medical services stocks, such as medicine stone science and technology, Jiuzhou Pharmaceuticals, Boten shares, Pharmacopeia and so on.
As for Glenn's China Europe Healthcare A, it gained 10.11 percent in seven days.
Central Europe Healthcare A was founded in September 2016 and has a latest (2022-06-30) size of $32.586 billion.
Performance, as of October 20, Glenn nearly a year of poor returns and lost the broader market, but stretched out over time, nearly five years since the return of 122.90%, over the same period the CSI 300 fell 4.38%.
In the second quarterly report, Glenn said she is optimistic about the long-term core innovative drugs, innovative devices, innovation industry chain, medical services and consumer health care. For the short-term underperformance, she hinted that short-term market volatility is hard to avoid.
Third, my pharma fund has not yet returned to capital, what should I do?
In the face of this wave of rebound, many partners are asking: my medical fund has not returned to the capital, what to do?
Looking back, the pullback in the pharmaceutical sector has lasted a year. Data show that the 800 health care index in February 2021 hit a stage high after the beginning of the way down, which makes a lot of small partners in the hands of the pharmaceutical theme fund fell once more than 30%, 40% or even more.
The more you fall, the harder it is to get your capital back, naturally.
In the case of no position, the fund fell 25% up 33% to return to the capital, fell 30% up 60% to return to the capital, and fell 40% to rise 66% back to the capital ......
Therefore, the pharmaceutical sector has recently risen well, but many people on the hands of the pharmaceutical theme fund is still far from the return of capital.
The harsh reality has also taught many of my friends a lesson: the importance of buying a fund that matches your risk appetite.
Why?
Pharmaceuticals are indeed recognized as a theme worth holding for the long term, with little impact from economic cycles and stable demand.
But short-term market trends are anyone's guess, and as we've seen pharmaceuticals don't fall any less than other popular tracks.
Such ups and downs, if you can't afford it, then once you start is likely to end up "selling at the low point", resulting in a fact loss.
Specifically at the moment, if you have been in the car and are torn between how to deal with the hands of the medical theme fund is still losing money, may wish to think about the feelings before October.
If you feel nothing but torment, it may be more appropriate to "cut your meat on the high side" and reduce your position.
But if your position is not heavy and the volatility of the sector is still tolerable, then it may be worthwhile to continue to hold.