In order to adapt to the "new normal", in the field of industry investment, should pay attention to what can adapt to the "new normal" industry, to explore investment opportunities. The new normal is the new normal, the new normal is the new normal, the new normal is the new normal.
The connotation of the "new normal" is much more than the GDP growth rate down a few percentage points, the depth of the adjustment of the economic structure, the switch of economic growth momentum, marketization, factor reform, state-owned enterprise reform and other fundamental changes in the system are essential to it. Which industries will benefit from the "new normal" in 2015, bringing investment opportunities?
"New Normal" is not a total decline
Economy from high-speed growth to medium-high growth is the "new normal" of China's economy. 2015, China's economic growth will continue the downward trend, the annual economic growth target is expected to be adjusted downward to about 7%. adjusted downward to about 7%.
The cultivation of new growth points and the formation of a new development mode require a gradual process, and the domestic economy is still not strong in endogenous growth momentum. The adjustment of the real estate industry and the digestion of excess capacity in traditional industries will continue to be a
drag on economic growth. From the central economic work conference put "efforts to maintain stable economic growth" in the first place, the management more than ever focus on stabilizing growth and adjusting the structure of the balance between the transition and reform space at the same time, adhere to the bottom
management thinking. 2015, 7% economic growth rate or the minimum target.
This level of economic development market has adapted to and gradually accepted the "new normal". Medium-high speed growth is not medium-speed growth, and according to the "18th National Congress"
proposed by the 2020 goal of doubling the total economic output and the need to stabilize employment, the economy needs to grow at an average annual rate of between 7% and 7.2%. Positive structural changes have already occurred in the process of downward economic growth. The proportion of the tertiary industry
continues to increase, with the value-added of the service sector growing faster than that of industry, and the role of consumption as a driving force for economic growth continuing to grow. With the overall idea and framework of reform gradually becoming clearer, negative and positive factors have been offsetting each other, and the reform effect
and the economic "new normal" are gradually replacing the traditional cyclical logic as the main factors boosting market confidence. Under the new normal, reaching the economic goals mainly depends on new growth points and new driving forces.
The focus points for consumption, investment and export in 2015 are: ensuring product quality and safety, activating demand through innovative supply, and unleashing the potential of consumption with the right consumption policy.
Encourage infrastructure connectivity and investment in some new technologies, new products, new industries and new business models, innovate investment and financing methods, and remove barriers to investment; introduce at a high level and go out on a large scale, and step up the cultivation of new
comparative advantages. Due to the limited space for consumption and export growth, investment still plays a key role in stabilizing the economy, and it is expected that investment in 2015 will focus on new
and internationalized investment activities such as domestic infrastructure connectivity and foreign infrastructure investment. At the same time, the outward movement of domestic production capacity and liberalized trade driven by such investment activities will also provide new impetus for economic development (310328, fund bar).
In order to adapt to the "new normal", in the field of industry investment, we should pay attention to some of the industries that can adapt to the "new normal", to explore investment opportunities.
Prior to the bottom of the industry ushered in opportunities
Benefit from overseas economic improvement in transportation, foreign trade services and logistics industries, the domestic economy in the new growth point of high-end equipment and industrial upgrading.
In 2015, analysts expect that the overall recovery of the world economy is weak and difficult to have a fundamental change, but the growth rate is expected to pick up slightly. On the one hand, the U.S. economic recovery momentum is good, the unemployment rate continues to fall, GDP growth rate rebound; on the other hand, the European economy is gradually getting rid of the impact of the debt crisis, Japan's economy is also stabilizing. Although the European and Japanese economies did not grow significantly, but the deterioration of the situation is basically under control, since the fourth quarter, the European Union and Japan's manufacturing industry as well as the service sector PMI index remained above 50. Overseas economic improvement, China's export growth and foreign trade to form support, transportation, logistics and foreign trade industry is expected to benefit.
Although China's manufacturing industry is facing the pressure of overcapacity, but as a manufacturing country, China's manufacturing base and advantages should not be ignored. Industrial upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the export of high-end equipment, will be China's
Economic "new normal" under an important growth point, while the capital export strategy to promote the manufacturing industry to "go out" as well as the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry for China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry Provides a new development opportunity. On the one hand, the country focuses on the development of
"One Belt, One Road" and the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area and other
strategic deployments for opening up to the outside world to open up new markets and new ideas, intended to drive industrial output through the export of capital to give full play to China's advantages as a large country in the manufacturing sector, the advanced manufacturing industry ushered in a new demand, but also to help Dissolve the excess capacity of China's manufacturing industry
Manufacturing industry. On the other hand, with the development of new industrialization and the traditional industries to the middle and high end, the transformation of manufacturing industry to intelligence, specialization, customization and informationization will gradually speed up.
Wang Jianhui, an analyst at Capital Securities, said in an interview with Xiaokang-Caixizhi that since 2014, the country has significantly accelerated its progress in promoting industrial upgrading as well as industrial integration, and has successively introduced and deployed policies and guidelines for the development of the Internet, high-tech, and information technology industries, as well as for the integration of these industries with other industries. At the micro level, domestic enterprises in CNC technology and automation system integration has been a certain technical accumulation, with the development of the foundation. Involved in more industrial fields, focusing on the Internet of Things, new materials, 3D printing, robotics, intelligent industry and other sub-sectors.
Infrastructure benefited from national investment
Encouragement of the "new normal" under the new type of investment, and infrastructure connectivity related to construction, utilities and oil and gas pipeline network industry, as well as the Internet and energy-saving and environmental protection and other emerging industries is expected to strengthen investment.
On the one hand, the open mode of infrastructure connectivity has been officially opened. during the APEC meeting, accelerating the construction of the "Belt and Road" has been generally recognized by many countries in the Asia-Pacific region. in October 2014,
21 countries in the Asia-Pacific region have decided to set up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. In the initial stage of planning and implementation, the focus of construction will be on infrastructure to expand connectivity in the Asia-Pacific region and within China. Construction, transportation
Transportation, utilities, and oil and gas pipeline networks and other infrastructure construction industries will benefit significantly.
Development of infrastructure investment, although there is no obvious profitability effect in the short term, is in line with the principles of economic transformation and quality enhancement in the medium to long term. On the one hand, from a domestic perspective, the "Belt and Road", infrastructure
Infrastructure connectivity, as well as other regional strategies, focusing on economically underdeveloped, relatively weak infrastructure development in the region. Investing in infrastructure in these regions will help solve the problem of uneven regional development and economic structure
. On the other hand, developing infrastructure in rural areas and townships will lay a solid foundation for urbanization.
In the medium and long term, transforming the mode of economic development and boosting the endogenous impetus for economic growth will require continuously enhancing the supporting role of strategic emerging industries and the service sector, promoting the innovative development of industries, and fostering new points of economic growth.
The Internet industry has penetrated into all areas of economic development, to promote consumption upgrading, industrial upgrading and scientific and technological innovation play a vital role in the economic "new normal" to cultivate and tap the new, sustainable
Sustainable growth momentum of the important hand. The investment opportunities brought by the economic Internet industry can be mined from two perspectives. First, the construction and development of the Internet itself, including related infrastructure construction, equipment providers,
network optimization services, application product providers. Second, the Internet has fully penetrated into traditional fields, influencing and transforming several traditional industries in a subtle way. For example, online education, smart home, intelligent medical care, Internet of Things
network, Internet finance and mobile payment, and many other fields.
Currently, China's environmental carrying capacity has reached or is close to the upper limit, the development of energy-saving and environmental protection industry is both a passive choice under the constraints of resources and the environment, as well as an active choice to promote the formation of a new way of green, low-carbon and recycling development
Choice. Policy, that is, after the launch of the "Ten Atmosphere", "Ten Water" official release has been gradually approaching, soil and solid waste treatment in the field of top-level design policy is also in the pipeline, the policy continues to force will promote the environmental protection industry demand
Request. On the other hand, the introduction of market-based trading systems such as carbon emission rights and sewage rights will help private capital enter the environmental protection industry.
Industries with declining costs in focus
Costs, the decline in domestic interest rates and the fall in international oil prices have played a role in reducing the cost burden on highly indebted industries such as construction, real estate, power and utilities, as well as maritime and shipping; reform of the land system can improve the efficiency of the use of land, which in turn can promote the improvement of the efficiency of agricultural production and operation.
Interest rate cuts benefit industries. The central bank cut the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate on
November 21, 2014, showing the management's determination to guide the cost of financing down. The interest rate cut, as well as lower interest rates, will have
an effect on the highly indebted industry to ease the pressure of finance costs in 2015. Looking at the industry as a whole, the top five industries with gearing ratios all have gearing ratios of more than 60%, namely construction (80.5%), real estate (74.7%), electric power and utilities
(67.2%), iron and steel (65.4%), and home appliances (62.9%). The effect of lower interest rates will be more pronounced in terms of easing financial costs in the above sectors.
Crude oil price decline benefited the industry. since the second half of 2014, under the influence of the strong upward movement of the U.S. dollar as well as weak demand, the international crude oil price has continued to fall sharply, and the cumulative decline has exceeded 50%. From the perspective of
cost reduction, the shipping and maritime industry has seen the most significant improvement in earnings during the decline in crude oil prices. If the oil price slump is prolonged, it will also have a positive effect on boosting auto consumption.
Reform of the land system can both improve the efficiency of land use and promote the efficiency of agricultural production and operation. From the current policy progress, a new round of rural land system reform pilot curtain has been opened
Kicked off. in early December 2014, the central comprehensive deepening reform leading group in the seventh meeting of the consideration of the "on the rural land expropriation, collective management of construction land into the market, the views of the pilot reform of the home base system", mentioned
Out adhere to the nature of the land of the public ownership system does not change, The opinions on the pilot reform of the land expropriation, collective construction land market and homestead system put forward the three bottom lines of insisting that the nature of the public ownership of land will not be changed, the red line of arable land will not be breached, and the interests of farmers will not be damaged, and emphasized the need to promote the top-level design and categorized implementation of the three types of land reforms. The Central Economic Work Conference has also made the improvement of
rural land management right transfer policy, improve the land contract management right registration and certification work, and improve the open and standardized land transfer market as one of the main tasks this year. Land reform investment opportunities mainly include the following three
aspects: First, the smooth flow of land on the scale of agriculture, industrialization of the positive impact; Second, the breeding enterprises to benefit from the transfer of rural land and rural residents to accelerate the transfer of the scale effect gradually appeared; Third, the scale of agriculture has
helped promote the modernization of agriculture, the relevant plate has a valuation enhancement effect.
Thematic aspects of investment attention
M&A restructuring and state-owned enterprise reform is expected throughout the year; optimization of the spatial pattern of economic development strategy is expected to form a continuous regional concept plate hotspot.
The investment opportunities in the process of mergers and acquisitions and reorganization mainly come from two aspects. The first is the company initiated mergers and acquisitions, through mergers and acquisitions can be realized industry chain expansion or consolidate the industry position or diversification, enhance the company's profitability
level and anti-risk ability. The second is the company being merged and acquired, especially the high-quality companies in emerging industries, whose equity will get a higher premium once they are merged and acquired by other companies, and whose shareholders' background will be enhanced to help stabilize
the development of the company's business.
The investment logic of listed companies related to the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) mainly includes the securitization of assets of industrial groups, the integration platform of internal resources of the group, the modern management system to push up the efficiency of corporate management, and the reform of mixed ownership to enhance the profitability of
private enterprises. From the industry point of view, the state-owned enterprises to liberalize the competitive industry, mainly in the trade and retail, food and beverage, and culture and media industries; with a certain monopoly position of the public **** service areas, such as
such as transportation infrastructure and public utilities will also be partially liberalized. From the central and local perspectives, the main attraction of the central enterprise reform is the finalization of the pilot program in 2014 and the new investment
opportunities brought about by the extension of the pilot scope in the future.
Wang Jianhui suggested that the key point of local state-owned enterprise reform is to improve the securitization rate, which means that asset injections and mergers and acquisitions involving local state-owned enterprises will continue to increase in the A-share market. Overall, low-priced, low-valued state-owned blue chips have the driving force for valuation improvement and are worth focusing on.
Regional concept hotspot. Optimize the spatial pattern of economic development is one of the priorities of the economic work in 2015, but also in the context of China's current uneven economic development, tap the potential of China's internal economic growth, and improve the efficiency of resource allocation on all
fronts an important strategy. Management has made it clear that next year it will focus on implementing the "Belt and Road", Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Cooperative Development, and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, while continuing to implement the overall regional development strategies of western development, northeastern revitalization, and the rise of central China, and organically integrating the promotion of the healthy development of urbanization and the optimization of economic development space. In addition, the approval of Guangdong, Tianjin and Fujian free trade zones has opened up the imagination for more regions to enjoy this dividend.
2015 to regional development planning as well as reform measures will increase the promotion and deployment of regional concept plate hotspot is expected to become the investment theme throughout the year.
In 2015, the central government will study and put forward proposals on the formulation of the "13th Five-Year Plan". "Thirteenth Five-Year" is not only the core stage of the current government to implement the program of governance, but also China's economic restructuring and upgrading, and build a well-off society in all aspects of the important five years, "Thirteenth Five-Year" plan will be based on the "new normal The "13th Five-Year Plan" will be based on the "new normal" and point out a new direction for the development of various fields. "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" planning ideas gradually clear process, will provide the market with a new round of industrial investment
opportunity.