1 Pharmaceutical economic operation will continue to show steady growth
1.1 The natural growth of the population is the basic factor for the increase in the demand for medicines
In 2000, China's elderly (60 years of age or older) population is close to 130 million people, accounting for about 10% of the total population, and China has stepped into the ranks of the aging countries. In the future, the elderly population will grow at about 3% per year. By 2005, the total number of elderly people in China will reach 160 million, accounting for 11.52% of the total population; by 2025, it will increase to 280 million, accounting for 17% of the total population; and by 2050, it will be more than 400 million, accounting for 27% of the total population and will reach its peak. The elderly population currently consumes more than 50 percent of all medicines. Calculated on the basis of the current per capita medication level of 385 yuan for the elderly, in 2005, the total amount of medication for the elderly will reach 61.6 billion yuan, a net increase of 11.55 billion yuan over the 50.05 billion yuan in 2000.
1.2 The step-by-step improvement of people's living standard has greatly boosted the demand for medicines
In 1999, China's rural population was 870 million, accounting for 69.1% of the total population. At present, China's drug consumption level is still very low, in 1998 per capita drug consumption of about 80 yuan (less than 10 U.S. dollars), while the average per capita consumption of medicines in medium-developed countries reached 40 to 50 U.S. dollars a year, developed countries such as Japan's annual per capita consumption of medicines amounted to 447 U.S. dollars, France, 322 U.S. dollars, Germany, 256 U.S. dollars, Italy, 210 U.S. dollars. From this, we can see that with the development of the country and the improvement of people's living standard, China's drug consumption market will have a lot of room for development. During the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, the demand for rural drug consumption is likely to increase by 15%, i.e., from 12.5 yuan per capita to 25.30 yuan per capita in 2005, and the per capita level of drug consumption in 2005 will be one times higher than that at the end of the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" period, with total consumption increasing by about 110%. In 2005, the per capita consumption of medicines will be one times higher than that at the end of the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, and the total consumption will increase by about 11 billion yuan.
Based on the above data analysis, it is expected that by 2005, the national demand for drugs will reach 218 billion yuan, a net increase of 94 billion yuan over 2000, is expected to "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, China's average annual increase in demand for medicines may reach 12%.
2 New changes in the structure of drug consumption
2.1 The structure of medication is becoming more reasonable, the successive introduction of new policies in China's medical care to bring about new changes in the structure of demand for medicines
With the introduction of the new health care reform program, the momentum of the rapid growth of drug consumption will be controlled, and the effective use of pharmaceutical resources will be the people's conscious action. Good efficacy and low price will be the two factors that patients must consider when using drugs, therefore, good efficacy and low-priced drugs sales will increase.
2.2 Over-the-counter drugs will enter a stage of rapid development
Drug classification and management will bring changes in the structure of drug demand. Global non-prescription drugs are developing rapidly, with sales reaching 45.07 billion dollars in 1998, an increase of 7.5% over 1997. The United States now has more than 5,500 prescription pharmacies and as many as 750,000 over-the-counter pharmacies. The United States is currently the highest per capita consumption of non-prescription drugs in the country (in 1997, the United States per capita consumption of non-prescription drugs for 70 U.S. dollars); Denmark ranked second (per capita 69 U.S. dollars); Germany ranked third (per capita 65 U.S. dollars). China's non-prescription drug market sales are very considerable, has risen from 250 million U.S. dollars (equivalent to 1.910 billion yuan) in 1990 to 1.010 billion U.S. dollars (equivalent to 8.380 billion yuan) in 1994, an increase of more than three times in four years. 1996, China's sales of non-prescription drug market rose to 1.3 billion U.S. dollars (equivalent to 10.79 billion yuan), has become the world's According to preliminary estimation, the sales of OTC drug market in 2000 could reach 3 billion U.S. dollars, with an average annual growth rate of about 15%. However, at present, China's per capita consumption of OTC drugs is lower than the global per capita consumption of OTC drugs ($9.1), and with the deepening of the reform of the health care system, the growing awareness of people's self-medicine and the development of the vast rural market, as well as the implementation of the drug management system, China's OTC drug market will show a more powerful momentum of development. Therefore, China's non-prescription drug market has great potential and bright prospects.
2.3 Demand for drugs and disinfectants used in the prevention and treatment of new infectious diseases and common epidemics will increase dramatically
The emergence of new disease spectra has brought about a change in the structure of demand for medicines, which is mainly due to the emergence of new birth-causing, viruses, which jeopardize the lives of human beings. At the same time, common epidemics and the emergence of "new members of the family". At present, there are more than 10,000 kinds of influenza viruses recognized globally, which can be classified into A, B and C. In 1997, four cases of influenza A viruses appeared in Hong Kong, which was the first time found in the world. 21st century medical model will be transformed from therapeutic to preventive, and the suppression of new infectious diseases and common pandemics will become the key point of medical treatment in the 21st century. As a result, the demand for drugs used to treat and prevent new infectious diseases and common epidemics, as well as for disinfectant drugs, will increase dramatically.
2.4 Consumption of health care products will continue to grow
In the 21st century, with the continuous improvement of living standards, people's awareness of health care will be comprehensively improved, and the requirements of the lowering of longevity more and more strongly, people not only have the need for medicines, but also the need to lower the demand for knowledge; from the original passive use of medicines, and gradually shifted to the choice of their own medicines, and from the passive treatment of the gradual development to the direction of prevention and health care. The demand for medicines is not only for prevention, but also for knowledge. Therefore, the sales of drugs for disease prevention and health care will continue to grow. Due to the improvement of people's lives, some new changes have appeared in the market of health care medicines: Firstly, the consumption area is gradually expanding from the city to the countryside; secondly, the consumption object is mainly from the old age and children in the past, expanding to the young and middle-aged people and women; thirdly, the consumption choice is focusing on the recovery from the disease in the past, expanding to the seasonal and year-round health care consumption; fourthly, the purpose of the consumption is expanding from the prevention of disease to the anti-aging, fitness, beauty and other needs. Fitness and beauty and other needs; Fifth, the consumption shows obvious hierarchy, coastal open cities than the remote areas of the interior, living in affluent places than the relatively isolated, poor places; Sixth, the consumption of new, natural, good efficacy, is the new trend of today's people on health care products. The new changes in people's demand for health care products have greatly contributed to the development of the health care industry. According to statistics, China's current annual sales of health care products has been close to 50 billion yuan, and 15% to 30% growth, higher than the increase in major categories of medicine, but also significantly higher than the developed countries, health care products 13% growth.
China's new health insurance system and the "national essential drugs", "basic health insurance drug catalog" implementation, will have a significant impact on the restructuring of medicines, efficacy, low-priced domestic drugs will still occupy a large market share; modern biotechnology drugs, Ran Drugs, marine drugs will likely to become a challenge to the competition of conventional chemical drugs.
3 Drug prices are becoming more reasonable
In recent years, the phenomenon of high drug prices in China is still relatively serious, but in the next few years the phenomenon of high drug prices will be basically reversed. This is mainly because the production of similar varieties of relatively centralized, with a relative scale advantage, the cost of production has fallen, the price of drugs back to a reasonable level is also logical. Due to the reform of the new drug approval system, new drugs of similar varieties will be reduced, those with independent intellectual property rights of the new drug will be protected by patents, its price is higher than the general drug should be normal.
4 The rapid rise of natural drug development
According to statistics, the current global annual sales of botanical medicines (including traditional medicines in various countries) is about 14.5 billion U.S. dollars, of which Europe accounts for about half, Germany and France have the highest consumption of botanical medicines, *** accounted for 72% of the total market in Europe, of which Germany accounted for 50%. Americans used to cold-shoulder botanicals, in recent years, the mindset has changed, recognizing the value of botanicals to cure diseases. Therefore, in recent years, the United States has become one of the world's most important botanical medicine market, since the 1970s, the U.S. botanical medicine market is not only expanding, but also become the world's botanical medicine industry raw materials supply base. In recent years, Japan has been in the leading position in natural medicine research, vigorously developing botanical medicines and producing large quantities of proprietary Chinese medicines to explore the international market. According to the newspaper, only the Tsujimura "Shuntian" a year's output value is equivalent to the total annual exports of Chinese medicine products in China. South Korea has adopted the strategy of fist products, and in recent years, the export value of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines has been growing rapidly. Many countries in the world in the development of new drugs in the natural medicine. China has the richest natural drug resources in the world. According to the national survey of Chinese herbal medicine resources, there are 12807 kinds of Chinese herbal medicine resources in China, which has a broad development prospect. According to the survey data, China's current sales of traditional Chinese medicines accounted for the proportion of total sales of drugs, although the trend of steady increase, but only about 33%, chemical drugs are still in the absolute lead. With the recent years of natural medicine active ingredients extraction, separation, purification and structure of the continuous development and application of research technology, so that the natural medicine to obtain more rapid growth. Natural medicine as a plant from the "green medicine" has been more and more consumers favor, with the rise of the global trend of respect for nature, natural medicine will become one of the most popular drugs in the 21st century.
5 gradually expanding the scale of business
Currently, China's pharmaceutical companies, including listed companies, the overall scale is still very small, it is difficult to cope with the WTO accession to the competition with large foreign companies. With the deepening of enterprise reform, industry structure adjustment, 5 years later, a large number of listed companies as the main body of the large companies, large groups can be expected to stand out. They will be through the joint, mergers, reorganization, the realization of extraordinary convergence of resources, asset value and capital expansion, the formation of large foreign companies with the strength of the competition, and at home and abroad on the two big markets.
6 The structure of the pharmaceutical market continues to diversify and develop at multiple levels
In the context of international harmonization, pharmaceutical companies, in order to enhance their ability to survive, develop, and adapt, will get rid of the limitations of the current industry, and develop and consolidate the main business of the pharmaceutical industry while developing and diversifying into multiple levels of operation.
6.1 The economic structure of the pharmaceutical market is diversified
The domestic pharmaceutical market is dominated by the state-owned pharmaceutical economy on the premise of all types of collective economy, the shareholding economy, as well as "three-funded" and "cooperative" enterprises are constantly developing. Development, this diversified pharmaceutical economic structure, to the active pharmaceutical market has brought a favorable environment. The operators of the pharmaceutical market is also diversified, state-owned pharmaceutical business, collective, private, pharmaceutical technology and other, but still state-owned pharmaceutical business as the main body.
6.2 The composition of the pharmaceutical market is hierarchical
It includes: drug market-oriented, fully reflecting the law of value, the law of supply and demand, open market characterized by bidding; semi-open market based on pharmaceutical contracts; closed market based on the state plan; and free purchase and sale of retail market.
6.3 Diversification of the composition of the demand for medicines
The desire to purchase and use medicines is very high, and purchasers and sellers with financial support have a special preference for high-grade medicines and new medicines; the consumption of middle- and low-level purchasers and sellers still occupies a majority of the market share of medicines. In the direction of funds, buyers and sellers in the production, supply, marketing, research and use of different input proportion, constituting a new pattern of purchase and sale.
7 The number of enterprises has shrunk considerably
China's pharmaceuticals have long been trapped by the persistent problems of many enterprises, small scale, high cost and low efficiency. After joining the WTO, along with the intensification of market competition, some enterprises will be merged, reorganization, some enterprises will withdraw from the market, China's pharmaceutical market map will be re-divided. The result of this elimination of the weak and stay strong is the number of pharmaceutical companies to reduce year by year. According to experts predicted that the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" after China's pharmaceutical enterprises will be reduced by 25% to 35%.
8 pharmaceutical general agent, general distribution will continue to expand
Pharmaceutical industrial and commercial enterprises in the voluntary and mutually beneficial basis, through the contractual form of pharmaceutical general agent, general distribution, will become the direction of the development of business operations. This mode of operation in the increasingly fierce market competition today, not only for the cooperation of the two sides to bring a stable source of goods and sales market, and is conducive to close and stable business, business collaboration, thus forming complementary advantages for the orderly operation of the pharmaceutical market to create a good environment and conditions for the enterprise by the rough management to intensive management of the road to change. And the general distribution, general agent of the variety, quantity, scope will continue to expand.
9 market competition will gradually tend to intensify
At this stage of the pharmaceutical market, the competition has just begun, because there are still a lot of restrictions on foreign access to the field of foreign goods there are tariff barriers to entry. At this stage, foreign investment in the Chinese market can only be carried out in the form of joint ventures, cooperation, and there are restrictions on the proportion of investment; foreign similar drugs into the Chinese market is also due to high tariffs, resulting in high prices and loss of competitiveness. 5 years later, the above situation will change. The huge Chinese pharmaceutical market will attract large foreign companies to invest, China may become the world's major APIs and preparations production base; import and export trade in drugs will grow dramatically; drug prices in the phenomenon of disparity between China and foreign countries will be gone, the pharmaceutical market competition will appear more intense.
[ Market analysis: the pharmaceutical market to the crossroads, the competition will be more fierce ]
Just when the health care reform suffered questions and even criticism, the pharmaceutical market development seems to have come to a crossroads. November 8, by the China Medical News Agency and the China Association of the Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry co-sponsored by the China Association of Enterprises with Foreign Investment in the pharmaceutical research and development industry, hosted by the Committee. "Pharmaceutical enterprises to *** win high-level seminar," the China Pharmaceutical Business Association, vice president Zhu Changhao predicted: "Next year, the pharmaceutical market competition will be even more fierce."
Zhu Changhao said, last year is the pharmaceutical industry's most disastrous year, this year and the pharmaceutical sub-sector is the most severe year, but the current development of the pharmaceutical industry is still in disorder, ineffective competition. He also pointed out that the development of the pharmaceutical industry is greatly influenced by the policy side, the strong position of medical units in the pharmaceutical market is becoming more and more prominent, which brings many uncertainties to the development of the pharmaceutical industry, the pharmaceutical market
To this end, Zhu Changhao added that he had in 1998 to the State Food and Drug Administration to do an analysis of the development trend of China's pharmaceutical market report, predicting that "policy on the pharmaceutical market will gradually weaken the impact", but now it seems that "this judgment is wrong", and the strong position of medical units in the pharmaceutical market is increasingly prominent is also "abnormal ".
So, in Zhu Changhao's view, the policy changes in China's medical and health system reform how to promote the crossroads, China's pharmaceutical market how to accelerate the development of the crossroads, China's pharmaceutical enterprises life and death also came to a crossroads. The next step, how enterprises integrate resources with good channels, how to achieve optimal allocation of resources, how to play the advantages of the network, integration of corporate culture, will become the test of its success or failure of the mark.
When it comes to the development trend of China's pharmaceutical market in 2006, Zhu Changhao predicts that: the pharmaceutical economy will maintain a high development rate, but the competition will be more fierce; structural adjustment will be further accelerated, the enterprise, the market, the varieties of the structure will undergo greater changes; the concentration of the pharmaceutical market to further increase the pharmaceutical dichotomy is further accentuated; the overall price of medicines is low, and the policy of price reduction will still be continue for a period of time; the regional economy to further accelerate the development of regional leading enterprises gradually clear; the rural pharmaceutical market will have a greater development, to promote the rural drug market still need to take a multi-pronged approach.
Finally, Zhu Changhao reminded the pharmaceutical enterprises, in the whole industry into a fully competitive micro-profit era, the formation of their core competitiveness has become a business imperative. To find ways to make themselves in the market competition "left", that is "win". On the future profitability of pharmaceutical enterprises, he expressed an optimistic attitude and shocking: the existence of "high" drug prices, that the market demand; relative to the cost of production, the price of drugs is not too high, but still on the low side.
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