Virtual people
Virtual people, including robots and online avatars, will become a member of the workforce. Evans said: "Animated characters have the ability of speech recognition, and at the same time, they can convert words into speech to identify people they have met before." In 22, robots will surpass humans physically. IBM's "Blue Brain" project lasts for 1 years and will use hardware and software to create a human brain. Evans said: "They think that consciousness can appear in this brain within 1 years." ? In 225, the number of robots in developed countries will exceed the population; In 232, robots will surpass humans in intelligence; By 235, robots will completely replace human beings in labor. In the future, we will see more complicated and advanced incarnations. Evans pointed out that IBM's "Watson" is an example of virtual human. "Watson" can answer questions and give an accurate answer. ? In the future, patients can use virtual machines to replace network family doctors, and hospitals can also use virtual machines to improve the level of nursing and treatment. Augmented reality and gesture-based processing technology will enter classrooms, medical institutions and communication facilities to improve teaching level and service quality. He said: "The machine's' eyes' allow users to shoot Sudoku puzzles with their smartphones and then finish them immediately." ? Zettaflood
the data generated in 28 is about 5 exabytes, which is equivalent to 1 billion DVDs. Three years later, we produced 1.2 zettabytes of data, and 1 zettabyte is equivalent to 124 exabytes. Evans said: "This is equivalent to everyone on the planet tweeting for 1 years, or watching an hour of TV shows for 125 million years." Our preference for high-definition video content has contributed to this growth to a great extent. According to Cisco's forecast, 91% of Internet data will be video content in 215. Cisco's R&D and marketing mainly focus on the so-called "zettaflood", which requires greatly improving the data transmission capacity of the network, and we can't lose the chain when we watch the video. ?
cloud wisdom
a lot of zettaflood data will be stored in the cloud. Of course, most data can be accessed through the cloud, not just through the private network. According to Cisco's forecast, by 22, one-third of the data will be accessed through the cloud. Global cloud service revenue is increasing by 2% every year, and IT companies will spend more than $1 trillion on innovation and cloud processing in 214. This money is enough to create another Google. Evans said: "Now the cloud technology is advanced enough to help us communicate through real-time language translation, improve our knowledge by visiting powerful supercomputers, such as wolfram's Alpha, and improve our health by using IBM's Watson and other computing platforms in new ways. Our communication methods are far more diverse than before. " ? The computing power given to terminal devices by cloud technology can improve our communication ability through real-time translation. At present, Android phones have the function of voice search, which can pass the user's questions to Google Cloud for processing, and then pass the search results to users. Evans said: "We will see more intelligent communication methods, and information based on context and location will appear in large quantities." ? With the help of always-on devices, the Internet can analyze the existing information to a greater extent. The information will be sent to a private sensor to know a person's sleep and transfer the call to voice mail. If you know that the user is in a car with a speed of 6 miles per hour (about 96 kilometers per hour), the sensor will realize that this is not the time to answer the video call. Of course, by that day, we may have got on the Google driverless car, and chatting in the car will be free. ?
The Next Generation Internet Evans takes his home as an example of the speed increase. Since 199, the performance of the Internet has increased by 17, times, and there was only one telnet connection in 199. Now, Evans has 38 always-on connections and more than 5M bandwidth, which is enough for telepresence, watching movies online and playing games at the same time. He thinks that the speed of home network will increase by 3 million times in the next 1 years. Most people in the industry will focus on 4G and 1G. ? At present, a new generation of Internet is taking shape. CERF said that a new protocol is needed to create an interplanetary network, which can transmit data over a long distance without being affected by waiting time. Evans pointed out that a multi-megabit network using lasers is being developed. The early work put forward the concept of quantum network technology based on quantum physics. This technology involves quantum entanglement. No matter how far apart, two particles will be entangled. If one is charged, so will the other. Quantum network is expected to become a reality in a few decades. ?
the world is getting smaller and smaller? With the help of always-on connectivity, social networks have the ability to change our culture, just like the Egyptian revolution that gave birth to the Arab Spring. The influence of social networking sites will spread rapidly among different cultures. A smaller world means faster communication speed. Evans said: "In the recent earthquake in Japan, the tweet of Japanese residents were sent to their followers before the US Geological Survey officially issued tsunami warnings to Alaska, Washington, Oregon and California." The capture, dissemination and consumption of information will be upgraded from "timely" to "real time". This change will have a faster impact on culture.
6. Solar Power Generation With the continuous growth of population, Evans estimates that there will be a big city with a population of 1 million every year in the next 2 years. More effective urban power supply mode will become an inevitable choice, especially solar power generation. Evans said: "Solar power alone can meet our energy needs. In order to meet the current global energy demand, it is necessary to build 25 super solar farms, each covering an area of 36 square miles (about 93 square kilometers). The area of forests felled every year is 17, square kilometers. " He pointed out that this super solar farm can be completed in just three years. ? The progress of related technologies will improve the efficiency of solar power generation and make it more economical. In June, researchers at the University of Oregon demonstrated a novel, affordable and less influential way to "print" solar panels with inkjet printers. ? 7.3D Printers The weight of bicycles printed by scientists with nylon is reduced by 65%, and more things will move from "entity" to "virtual". Nowadays, more and more people download e-books and movies instead of buying books and DVDs. 3D printing technology allows us to make anything from food to bicycles at once, which is strikingly similar to the copy machine in Star Trek. Evans said: "3D printing or additive manufacturing is a process of fusing materials according to 3D model data, usually printing layer by layer." ? Because of the layer-by-layer printing method, everything from toys to cars to living structures can be printed, which is no different from those made in the traditional way. Some people point out that 3D printing may face legal challenges. Evans said: "In the not-too-distant future, we can print human organs." At the Technology Entertainment Design Conference held in Long Beach, California, USA in March, Dr. Anthony attalla of Wake Forest University Institute of Regenerative Medicine printed a proof-of-concept kidney model on the spot. This is not a living organization, but it is still a great breakthrough. ?
8. everything network? We have exceeded a threshold, and the number of things connected to the Internet exceeds the global population. The next generation Internet protocol IPv6 supports almost unlimited connectivity. According to Cisco IBSG's forecast, the number of things connected to the Internet will reach 5 billion in 22, which is equivalent to more than 6 Internet devices per person on earth. Many users in developed countries have three or more devices connected to the Internet, such as PC, smart phone, tablet computer and Internet TV. Evans said that sensor networks will be popular in the future, using low-energy sensors to collect, transmit, analyze and distribute massive data. ? This sensor is based on Zigbee, 6LoWPAN and Z-wave standards, and can provide services to users in a predictable and amazing way. Zigbee is implanted with intelligent household appliances and intelligent instruments, and vint cerf applies 6LoWPAN to his wine cellar climate monitoring system. Z-Wave is the foundation of Verizon's smart home automation service. ? Now, more creative applications are springing up. Sparked, a Dutch startup, implanted sensors into cattle ears to monitor their health and whereabouts. In addition, merchants also implant sensors into shoes, asthma inhalers and other drug delivery devices and medical exploration devices. There is even a tree with a large number of sensors installed in Sweden, which expresses its emotions and thoughts through the "translation engine" developed by Ericsson. ?
9. More advanced medical technology and equipment Evans, a medical robot, said, "Pacemakers are nothing new." In the next 1 years, medical technology will become more advanced with the improvement of computing power, and medical equipment will also be miniaturized. Devices like nano-robots and the ability to cultivate replacement organs from patients' own tissues will become more common. He said: "The dream of ultimate integration is the brain-machine interface, which finally allows patients with spinal cord injury to live like normal people." Now, we have developed mind-controlled video games and wheelchairs. Software developed by Intel can scan the brain, understand other people's thoughts, and then predict their next move. ?
1. Human or Borg? Stephen Hawking, a new wireless bionic hand developed by Scots, said that human beings are entering an evolutionary stage of self-design. With the medical technology reaching a new height, human beings will have a series of tools to improve their abilities. Evans listed the following examples: In July 29, Spanish researchers discovered the substance behind "never forgets anything". ? In October 29, Italian and Swedish scientists developed the world's first artificial hand with feeling. ? In March, 21, retinal transplantation helped the blind to recover their vision. ? In June 211, Texas Heart Research Institute developed a "rotating" heart with no pulse, no blockage and no failure. ? The early application of these technologies can help to repair pathological tissues or brain damage, and ultimately help humans realize their dream of "self-design". In the future, humans can use a lot of technology to repair, improve or strengthen their bodies and turn themselves into Borg people. Ray Cruzville, a futurist, is an advocate of this idea. With the development of related technologies to a certain extent, humans and machines will merge and become a new species. Cruzville described this idea as "singularity", and according to his prediction, this dream will become a reality before 254. Evans is not sure about the singularity, but even more skeptical about Cruzville's prediction of 254. At Singularity University in Mountain View, California, Evans searched for seemingly reasonable data, and he thought that we were moving in this direction.