The first stage: 65438+1July 2, 1997, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system, which triggered a financial storm sweeping Southeast Asia. On the same day, the exchange rate of Thai baht against the US dollar fell by 17%, and financial markets such as foreign exchange were in chaos. Under the influence of the fluctuation of Thai baht, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have become the targets of international speculators. In August, Malaysia gave up its efforts to defend Ringgit. The Singapore dollar, which has been strong, has also been hit. Although Indonesia is the latest country to be "infected", it is the most seriously affected. 10 year 10 in late October, international speculators moved to Hong Kong, an international financial center, aiming at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. Taiwan Province authorities suddenly abandoned the exchange rate of the new Taiwan dollar, depreciating by 3.46% a day, which increased the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong stock markets. 1October 23rd 10, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1 2 1 1.47 points; On the 28th, it fell 1, 626,5438+0.80 points and fell below the 9000-point mark. Faced with fierce attacks from international financial speculators, the Hong Kong SAR Government reiterated that it would not change the current exchange rate system, and the Hang Seng Index rose to 10000. Then, 1 1 in mid-June, a financial storm broke out in South Korea in East Asia. 17 In June, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar fell to a record 1 008: 1. 2 1, the South Korean government had to seek help from the International Monetary Fund, which temporarily controlled the crisis. However, on 65438+February 13, the exchange rate of Korean won against the US dollar fell to 1 737.60: 1. The Korean won crisis has also hit the Japanese financial industry, which has invested heavily in South Korea. 1997 a series of Japanese banks and securities companies went bankrupt in the second half of the year. As a result, the Southeast Asian financial crisis evolved into the Asian financial crisis.
The second stage: 1998, Indonesia's financial turmoil resumed. In the face of the worst economic recession in history, the prescription prescribed by the International Monetary Fund for Indonesia failed to achieve the expected results. On February 1 1, the Indonesian government announced the implementation of the linked exchange rate system with a fixed exchange rate between the Indonesian rupiah and the US dollar to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. This move was unanimously opposed by the International Monetary Fund, the United States and Western Europe. The International Monetary Fund threatened to withdraw its aid to Indonesia. Indonesia is in a political and economic crisis. On February 6/kloc-0, the exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar fell below 10000: 1. Affected by this, the Southeast Asian currency market once again set off waves, with the Singapore dollar, Malaysian dollar, Thai baht and Philippine peso falling one after another. It was not until April 8 that Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement on a new economic reform plan that Southeast Asian currency markets were temporarily calm. 1997 The financial crisis in Southeast Asia put the Japanese economy, which is closely related to it, into trouble. The exchange rate of Japanese yen dropped from 1 15 at the end of June 1997 to 1 USD at the beginning of April 1998. In May and June, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen fell all the way, once approaching the mark of 150 yen 1 US dollar. With the sharp depreciation of the yen, the international financial situation is more uncertain and the Asian financial crisis continues to deepen.
The third stage: 65438+1At the beginning of August, 1998, international speculators launched a new round of attacks on Hong Kong in the face of the turmoil in the American stock market and the continuous decline of the yen exchange rate. The Hang Seng Index has dropped to over 6 600 points. The Hong Kong SAR Government retaliated, and the HKMA used the Exchange Fund to enter the stock market and futures market, absorbing Hong Kong dollars sold by international speculators and stabilizing the foreign exchange market at the level of 7.75 Hong Kong dollars 1 US dollar. After nearly a month of hard work, international speculators suffered heavy losses and failed to realize their attempt to use Hong Kong as a "super ATM" again. While international speculators lost in Hong Kong, they lost in Russia. 17 On August 7th, the Russian central bank announced that it would expand the floating range of the ruble against the US dollar to 6.0 ~ 9.5: 1 during the year, and postpone the repayment of foreign debts and government bonds. On September 2, the ruble depreciated by 70%. This led to a sharp drop in the Russian stock market and foreign exchange market, which triggered a financial crisis and even an economic and political crisis. The sudden change of Russian policy has greatly hurt international speculators who have invested huge amounts of money in Russian stock market, and has led to the overall violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets of American and European stock markets. If the Asian financial crisis was still regional before this, then the outbreak of the Russian financial crisis shows that the Asian financial crisis has gone beyond the regional scope and has global significance. By the end of 1998, the Russian economy was still in trouble. 1999, the financial crisis is over.
There are many reasons for the financial crisis from 65438 to 0997. Chinese scholars generally believe that it can be divided into direct trigger factors, internal basic factors and world economic factors.
The direct trigger factors include: (1) the impact of hot money in the international financial market. At present, there are about $7 trillion of international capital flowing around the world. Once international speculators find out which country or region is profitable, they will immediately attack the currency of that country or region through speculation to make huge profits in the short term. (2) Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand and expand financial liberalization on the other, which provides opportunities for international speculators. For example, Thailand deregulated the capital market at 1992 before the financial system was straightened out, which made the short-term capital flow unimpeded and provided conditions for foreign speculators to speculate on the Thai baht. (3) In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries have used foreign exchange reserves for a long time to make up for their deficits, resulting in an increase in foreign debt. (4) The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of more short-term and medium-term debts, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the domestic foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to make up for it, the devaluation of the country's currency is inevitable.
Internal basic factors include: (1) the high growth rate of overdraft economy and the expansion of non-performing assets. Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to maintain the speed, these countries turn to foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the poor economic development, by the mid-1990s, some Asian countries were unable to repay their debts. In southeast Asian countries, the bubble blown by real estate only brought bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, because it is too easy for large enterprises to obtain funds from banks, once the business conditions of enterprises are not good, the non-performing assets will expand immediately. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets in turn affects the confidence of investors. (2) The market system is immature. First, the government excessively interferes with the allocation of resources, especially the loan investment and projects in the financial system; The other is that the financial system, especially the supervision system, is not perfect. (3) The defect of "export substitution" mode. The "export substitution" model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. However, this model also has three shortcomings: first, when the economy develops to a certain stage, the production cost will increase and the export will be restrained, resulting in the imbalance of international payments in these countries; Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual extrusion; Third, the gradual progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and it is impossible to maintain competitiveness simply by relying on the cheap advantages of resources. These countries in Asia have not solved the above problems after achieving rapid growth.
World economic factors mainly include: (1) the negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization makes the economic ties of countries around the world closer and closer, but its negative effects can not be ignored, such as the intensification of interest conflicts between nation-States, the enhancement of capital mobility, and the difficulty in preventing crises. (2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and monetary system are unfavorable to third world countries. In the field of production, high-tech products and high-tech itself are still produced in developed countries, and the technical content of products is gradually declining to underdeveloped countries. Least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In the field of exchange, developed countries can buy primary products at low prices and monopolize high prices to promote their own products. In the field of international finance and currency, the whole global financial system and system is also beneficial to financial powers.
The financial crisis has a far-reaching impact, exposing some deep-seated problems behind the rapid economic development of some Asian countries. In this sense, it is not only a bad thing, but also a good thing, which provides opportunities for developing countries in Asia to deepen reform, adjust industrial structure and improve macro-management. Because of the arduous task of reform and adjustment, it will take some time for these countries to fully restore their economies. However, the basic factors of economic growth in developing countries in Asia still exist. After overcoming internal and external difficulties, there is great hope for the improvement and further development of the Asian economic situation.
1997 1998, the Asian financial crisis, is another major event that has a far-reaching impact on the world economy after the world economic crisis in the 1930s. This financial crisis reflects that there are serious defects in the financial systems of all countries in the world, including many mature financial systems and economic operation modes that people think are selected through historical development. This financial crisis has exposed many problems, which need to be reflected. This financial crisis has brought us many new topics and raised the issue of establishing new financial laws and organizational forms. This book attempts to do research in this field. The central issue of this book is how to get rid of the century-old economic problems brought about by the money supply system formed by various countries and the debt derivative mechanism formed between enterprises under the new situation, when the paper money standard system has not been realized after the monetary system reform at the beginning of this century, including: (1) corporate debt burden, bank bad debts, frequent financial and debt crises; (2) Excessive social money supply, heavy banking business and increased difficulty in macro-control; (3) The government has difficulty in tax collection, and the financial crisis is intertwined with the financial crisis; (4) Inflation and social economy are intertwined, bubble economy occurs from time to time, economic fluctuations are frequent, and economic growth is often hindered; (5) Lack of enterprise funds brings operational difficulties, increases the bankruptcy rate and frequent enterprise merger activities, reduces the stability of enterprises, increases unemployment, and is not conducive to economic growth and social stability. (6) Unequal international monetary relations have brought a heavy burden to most countries in the world and caused many international economic problems. The deepest reason for the above problems is that the monetary system is not perfect and the new mechanism of inter-enterprise trading activities under the condition of socialized mass production is not fully understood. The idea of this book is to establish the authoritative intermediary system of enterprise transaction settlement-the national enterprise transaction intermediary settlement system, liberate the debt chain between enterprises, eliminate the bad debt base between enterprises and banks, thus avoiding the occurrence of debt and financial crisis, reducing the harm of inflation and bubble economy, and promoting stable economic growth. In this process of innovation, national tax revenue and fiscal expenditure will also be innovated to reduce the occurrence of fiscal deficit. At the same time, it will also produce the innovation of enterprise system, reduce the bankruptcy and merger of enterprises and enhance the stability of enterprises. In addition, it will also innovate international settlement methods and reform the use of international currency. This process is not a simple treatment of economic problems, but a correction of serious defects in the paper money system, an innovation in the money supply and circulation system, and a major change in the financial system. Moreover, this change has brought many adjustments to the economic operation mechanism.
The direct impact of the Asian financial turmoil on the economy
1. The stock market value has dropped by 20% to 50%.
During the period from 1997 10 to 1998 10, all Asian countries and regions, except China, faced a sharp decline in their stock markets. Japan and Taiwan Province Province decreased by about 20%, and the rest all exceeded 40%; Malaysia fell by more than 50%. It is really shocking that the state and local assets have lost more than 40% in a short period of time.
The value of the foreign exchange market has also depreciated.
After the financial turmoil, the currencies of various countries and places have been lowered in succession. Except for the linked exchange rate, the currencies of other Asian countries and regions (except China) have depreciated by 30% to 80%. Indonesia's depreciation rate is as high as 340%. These have caused a huge blow to the overall asset value.
3. After depreciation, the entrance and exit will not rise but fall.
Some policy makers, especially international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, believe that devaluation will help import and export competitiveness and stimulate economic recovery. But the opposite is true. The forecast of 1998 shows that all countries and regions have negative growth except India. Exports are expected to drop by 5% to 10%. And the entrance is greatly reduced. With the exception of Taiwan Province Province and Hongkong, which only dropped by 6% to 10%, the other declines all exceeded 12%. Thailand and Indonesia have significantly reduced by 30%. It shows that depreciation may not increase exports, but reducing imports can only delay exports.
4. The economic prospects have all experienced considerable negative growth.
As a result, the economies of Asian countries and regions suddenly changed from high-speed growth to negative growth. With the exception of China, India and Taiwan Province, no one is spared. South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand estimate negative growth of 6%-8%; Indonesia may experience a significant negative growth of 18%.
Unemployment is getting worse and worse.
When the overall economy shows negative growth, the unemployment problem will definitely worsen; In all countries and regions affected by the financial turmoil, the unemployment rate has more than doubled over the previous year. Table 5 shows that except for Taiwan Province Province and Singapore, which can be kept below 4%, the others are all above 5%. It is estimated that the unemployment rate in South Korea, the Philippines and Indonesia has soared by more than 10%.
6. Wages and real estate prices have fallen.
Due to the large increase in the number of unemployed people, the supply in the labor market exceeds demand. Employers took the opportunity to reduce wages and costs. For example, wages in Hong Kong are generally lowered by 1-20%. At the same time, due to the weakening of consumption power and poor sales market, users cannot afford high property prices or rents. As a result, real estate prices and rents have also fallen. The situation in Hong Kong is particularly severe, with house prices falling by 30%.
The direct impact of the Asian financial turmoil on social security
1. The return on investment of social security funds has suffered huge losses.
Retirement security, especially the provident fund system in the form of personal accounts, has accumulated huge social security funds; The relevant authorities must try to preserve and increase the value of investment. However, investment often carries great risks, especially in the stock and exchange rate markets, where the value fluctuates greatly. The emergence of the Asian financial turmoil has led to a sharp drop in the stock market and foreign exchange market, which will cause great losses to many social security funds. Try to see the situation in Hong Kong here.
Since Hong Kong has decided to develop a mandatory private provident fund, the possible impact will be analyzed here. First of all, we find that the global financial turmoil happens almost every ten years. The return on investment must be analyzed regularly, and it cannot be estimated by a certain peak period out of context. For example, the last stock market crash was 1987, so it is not suitable to use 1983 to estimate it. Only after the stock market crash, invest in another big stock market crash, for example, in 1997, can we estimate the real and definite return on investment more accurately.
The current draft of the Mandatory Provident Fund condones the high-risk investment strategy and allows 100% of assets to be invested in the stock market. Even if 100% of the assets were invested in the stock market in the last year, it is only calculated by the impact of the current financial turmoil in Hong Kong (if the situation in Southeast Asia is used, the disaster will be even greater). Once there is a problem, it will be serious.
In the investment cycle of the past ten years, the average annual return rate of private pension funds in Hong Kong is only 6% (assuming a stock loss of 30%). This estimate is lower than the average annual inflation rate of 8.8%. In other words, the high-risk investment strategy of the draft MPF is easily affected by the financial turmoil.
In response to 1997, the MPF Office only lost 7% of its investment return; However, referring to the asset changes of Hong Kong listed companies 10 family, it can be seen that most of the losses of 1997 are between 30% and 50%, which shows that the author's estimation is accurate and reliable. In other words, the high-risk investment strategy of private MPF can't withstand the impact of the financial turmoil, which has caused great losses to the public.
If we use the prudent investment strategy of the Land Fund (that is, 30% stocks, 40% debt stocks and 30% cash in the bank), even if we encounter the negative impact of the same financial storm, the average annual return rate of the cycle from 1988 to 1997 is roughly estimated to be 9.5% (assuming a stock loss of 30%). In other words, compared with the average annual inflation rate of 8.8%, it can still maintain its value and increase its value less. However, according to the latest settlement at the end of June 1998, it is difficult to preserve the value of land funds. This shows the lethality of the Asian financial turmoil. I believe that most countries in Asia that adopt the provident fund system will suffer heavy losses in their funds, which will seriously weaken their ability to give back.
2. As the number of unemployed people increases, the number of employees who pay fees decreases.
Due to the Asian financial turmoil, the unemployment rate has risen sharply, and the unemployment rate in most countries has reached 10%. This means that employees with110 can't pay the fees, and their employers' fees will be lost accordingly. Then the total payment must have lost the110 fund of that year. If these conditions continue for three years, the situation will be even worse. Because the estimates of most countries rarely predict that the unemployment rate will reach 10% or more, this will cause actuarial bias of the whole social security fund and even affect its financial stability.
3. Wages decrease and contributions decrease.
Employees who avoid unemployment are likely to have their wages reduced by their employers. Due to the economic recession, the number of unemployed people is increasing, and employers will take the opportunity to reduce wages to reduce costs and increase profits. When wages drop, naturally, under the condition that the contribution rate remains unchanged, the contributions of both employees and employers will decrease accordingly, resulting in a decrease in the total amount of social insurance. Of course, this will affect its financial stability.
4. The difficulties of enterprises have increased, and the write-off and refusal to pay have increased.
Due to the economic downturn, many enterprises will close down, lay off employees, reduce their salaries or move out. In this way, the payment and payment of enterprises will be reduced. Other enterprises barely maintain their operations, but it is difficult to give consideration to employee benefits, so they cut employee benefits. Of course, social security benefits bear the brunt: voluntary enterprise pensions and medical insurance will be cancelled or cut; The social security plan stipulated by national legislation may not be able to cope; The proportion of non-payment will increase accordingly, which will directly affect the financial stability of social security funds.
5. The number of unemployed people has increased, and the financial burden of unemployment insurance and social assistance has increased.
With the increase of the number of unemployed people, the number of people who naturally receive unemployment insurance benefits increases, which directly increases the expenditure of unemployment insurance benefits and leads to an increase in financial burden. In addition, because unemployment insurance generally only provides protection for 6 months to 1 year, people who are still unemployed after receiving it can only turn to social assistance. Examples of western countries can be seen; For example, in Britain and the Netherlands, the unemployed receive 40% to 60% of the total social assistance. At present, the unemployed in Hong Kong receive social assistance, accounting for more than 65,438+00% of the total number of social assistance cases, and it is developing to the situation in the West. This has imposed a financial burden on the government.
Enlightenment of Asian financial turmoil on the development of social security
1. Social security funds should not invest in the stock market.
Judging from the analysis results in Table 1 to Table 6, investing in the stock market is extremely risky. Even if the investment in the stock market is limited to less than 30% according to international practice, the consequences will be the same as those of the Hong Kong Land Fund, which will be unbearable to the financial turmoil and lead to losses. So social security funds should not invest in the stock market. Recently, the illegal practices of secret hedge funds in the United States have also exposed their shortcomings and risks, resulting in losses of more than 1000 billion US dollars, which has had a chain effect on the international banking system and led to the intervention and rescue of the US government. I believe that if there is no other better supervision method, this hidden and dangerous speculative group will continue to manipulate the financial market behind its back every day. For social security funds, it is really inappropriate to take these risks, so as not to harm the welfare of the insured.
2. Social security funds should be invested in social services and capital construction, which can not only preserve value, but also create employment opportunities.
Instead of investing in the stock market, social security funds can be invested in social services and capital construction. It is not only stable, but also has great cross-border economic benefits. At present, many Asian countries do not provide enough services to meet the needs of different goals according to policy planning. Therefore, we can take this opportunity to speed up the development of social services to meet the needs of society, thus creating employment opportunities, hiring people and providing services immediately.
The biggest advantage of investing in social services to increase employment opportunities is that it can provide employment opportunities for many low-skilled middle-aged people. Under normal circumstances, it is more difficult for middle-aged people with low skills, both men and women, to compete with young skilled people for employment opportunities. At the same time, it is more difficult for these elderly people to receive technical training and upgrade their skills. Community services, such as personal care, housekeeping, home maintenance and other convenience services, are quite suitable for middle-aged unskilled people. Therefore, it is necessary to establish these social services.
On a higher level, the development of social services such as public housing, education and medical care will create more employment opportunities, solve unemployment and reduce poverty. Let's illustrate this argument in the case of Hong Kong.
At present, more than 6,543,800 people have applied for public housing. If the Hong Kong SAR Government insists on building 50,000 public housing units every year, it will greatly reduce the waiting list and shorten the waiting time; And can meet the future population growth of Hong Kong, reaching 8 million people. In addition to meeting the housing demand quickly, its employment creation and functional effects are remarkable. Building public housing can bring business to the construction industry and hire construction workers; When people move in, they need to decorate and design, add household appliances, household items, sundries and so on. This will produce chain economic benefits, make the whole sales industry and department store industry prosper and naturally increase employment opportunities. Large shopping centers in public housing areas will increase the development of retail industry.
Similarly, in order to improve the quality of education, it is necessary to build and increase existing primary and secondary schools. At present, the staff office is very crowded, and it is difficult for teachers to give full play to their ability to help students. At present, the teacher-student ratio is too large, so it is necessary to reduce the number of students in each class to increase teachers' concern for students.
Similarly, improving medical facilities has the same effect. Nowadays, newspapers often report that hospital beds are insufficient and canvas beds are often needed; Hospitals are understaffed, especially nurses and nursing staff. It is necessary to increase the number of regional hospitals and recruit more medical staff to maintain and improve the service quality. Building more hospitals, increasing medical technology and equipment and hiring more people will help create more employment opportunities.
Therefore, the overall development of social services can not only improve social work services, education, housing and medical facilities and services, but also meet the needs of the public and bring more employment opportunities.
Perhaps policy makers will ask: What economic benefits can investment in social service construction bring? And take the construction of "affordable housing" in Beijing as an example for analysis. The supply target of "affordable housing" is low-income families in cities. I hope they can spend 20% to 30% of their family income to buy such a suite within 10 to 20 years. And to Beijing lots near Beijing suburban counties: 2,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan per square meter can buy commercial housing. According to the cost price 1997 stipulated by the Beijing municipal government, the buildings in the suburbs around the city are about 1450 yuan per square meter. Calculated by a small room of 50 square meters, the cost is 72,500 yuan. If it is paid in 25 years, it will be paid to 240 yuan every month on average, just like paying rent, accounting for 20% of the average income of a family of three 1200 yuan at present. If it is set at 25% and the middle and lower classes contribute to 300 yuan every month, then there will be 60 yuan or 20% of the profits. It can be seen that investing in social service infrastructure can preserve and increase value, and also bring related social and economic benefits.
3. We should give priority to basic security and maintain a low level of social security.
Due to the Asian financial turmoil, the market value of the stock market has decreased. I believe that many social security funds have lost more than 20%. What's more, it will affect the financial integrity of the fund. Therefore, the amount of social security should be maintained at a low level to ensure basic needs; It should not be excessively expanded to protect the middle class. This will keep the social security fund stable, even if it is hit by the financial turmoil, it will ensure sufficient financing, and there will be enough funds to provide social security payments for people with basic needs. In other words, before or even after the completion of the reform of the world financial system, I am afraid that many hidden organizations, such as long-term capital management hedge funds, will take the opportunity to speculate. The policy of "maintaining a low level of social security to protect basic needs" should become a long-term national policy and should not be revised. Even if the national economy is booming, it is not appropriate to raise the level of the guarantee amount. On the one hand, it can avoid sudden damage such as financial turmoil, and at the same time, it can use rich resources for social service-oriented social security. On the other hand, it can maintain citizens' work motivation and will not dampen their work enthusiasm because of the high level of social security.
4. Unemployment insurance should not be established, resulting in financial burden.
Whether unemployment insurance should be established is often a controversial issue in policy changes. However, after the Asian financial turmoil, its sequelae obviously led to a large number of unemployment. Except for Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan Province, the unemployment rate can still be kept below 5%, and most other countries and regions are close to 10% or above. It will be an astronomical figure to provide basic unemployment insurance for so many unemployed people. In the case of economic downturn and heavy losses, it will be a heavy burden for the government to take out this money at once. Therefore, it is appropriate to formulate a sound social security policy to avoid setting up unemployment insurance. In order to protect the unemployed, social assistance can be used to provide a minimum living guarantee to ensure that they will not fall into the social safety net. This social security arrangement will be more suitable for dealing with crises such as financial turmoil.
In fact, generally speaking, the unemployment insurance arrangement in western countries is to provide unemployment insurance benefits for the unemployed for six months to 1 year. If they can't find a job by then, they can only transfer social assistance relief by applying for a means test to solve their basic living problems. Therefore, it is not necessary to provide transitional unemployment insurance for the unemployed with certain asset savings if the basic living security is the mainstay.
Even in China, which has not been hit by the financial turmoil, providing unemployment insurance benefits to all involuntary unemployed people, including those middle-class unemployed people with certain asset savings, will cause many sequelae.
(1) Unemployment insurance finance is prone to deficit. 1986 since the establishment of unemployment insurance, the unemployment insurance expenditure of 1992 has reached the sum of all the years due to the increase in the number of unemployed people; The unemployment insurance expenditure of 1994 is 1.2 times that of the previous seven years; In some areas, it is difficult to make ends meet. The remaining funds can only maintain the basic life of 2 million people for one year, but it is predicted that from 1995 to 2000, due to the bankruptcy and dismissal of enterprises, the number of employees will reach180,000, with an average of 3 million. It may not be enough to increase the unemployment insurance fund by 10 times (Guide to the Implementation of Re-employment Project in China, 1998).
(2) There are various expenses under the name of the unemployment insurance system, including medical expenses, funeral subsidies, relatives' pensions, production self-help fees, management fees, etc., which are difficult to supervise and audit. Therefore, it is suggested to set up a social supervision organization composed of representatives of employers, workers, trade unions and public organizations, and its effectiveness needs to be confirmed.
(3) At present, the scope of application is limited to state-owned enterprises. If it is extended to various enterprise systems and breaks the boundaries between urban and rural areas, it will bear more responsibilities than hundreds of millions of people, including 654.38+0.2 billion township enterprise employees. It is doubtful whether it can be done.
A more feasible way is to provide a "safety net" for the unemployed with the minimum living security system to ensure their basic living needs. Relevant resources can be used as re-employment service funds to provide vocational training subsidies, encourage people to improve their skills, prepare for changing jobs, find jobs and help themselves in production. This is better than setting up unemployment insurance. In fact, at present, China's national policy also puts the relief function of unemployment insurance in the first place. Therefore, it is more direct and effective to choose the minimum living security and vocational training subsidies (for a detailed analysis, please see Hong Kong Labor Relations and Social Security by Mo Taiji and others, China Labor Publishing House, 2000).
5. Determine the poverty line as the safe level of social assistance.
Without unemployment insurance, there must be a suitable social assistance system. However, many social assistance systems have changed with political disputes, and failed to effectively provide an appropriate level of protection to meet the needs of those who are most unable to help themselves. A more well-founded approach is to choose an appropriate method to formulate an official poverty line as the basic security fund of the social assistance system, and to become the last line of defense of society in the form of a social safety net to protect citizens. This will effectively take care of those who need help most and ensure social stability and maintain good law and order.
refer to
1 Li, editor-in-chief, 1998, The Second Shock Wave-From Southeast Asian Financial Storm to Global Economic Revolution, Guizhou People's Publishing House.
2 Jiang Jianqing, editor-in-chief, 1998, Review of Overseas Financial Trends, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Press.