(I) Conversion ratio method
The conversion ratio method in human resource forecasting is: firstly, estimate the number of front-line production staff (or salespersons) required by the organization based on the enterprise's production tasks (or volume of business), and then estimate the number of supporting staff such as secretarial, financial and human resource management staff based on this quantity The number of staff is then estimated.
The purpose of the conversion ratio method is to convert an organization's business volume into a need for personnel, which is a suitable method for short-term demand forecasting. The conversion ratio method assumes that the labor productivity of the organization is constant.
There are two drawbacks to this method of forecasting:
One is that estimates need to be made with respect to the amount of business growth over the planning period. The current growth rates of business per capita and productivity are precisely estimated
The second is that this method of forecasting takes into account only the total amount of employee demand and does not consider the structure.
(ii) Personnel Ratio Method
When using the personnel ratio method, the key business indicators should first be calculated for the company's history, and then the number of various types of personnel required should be calculated based on predictable variables.
There are major limitations to its application.
(C) Trend extrapolation
The trend extrapolation method is also known as the time series method, which extends the future from the past.
Trend extrapolation is usually concerned only with the direction or that part of the human resources issue in question that can be quantified. The reliability of its predictions is closely related to the length of historical and current information, and the length of the extrapolation period.
(D) regression analysis
Regression analysis is based on the cause and effect relationship between the development of things to predict the future development trend of things, it is the study of interrelationships between the variables of a quantitative prediction method, also known as the regression model prediction method or cause and effect method.
(E) econometric modeling method
Econometric modeling method is the company's staff demand and the main factors affecting the demand for the relationship between the form of mathematical models, according to the model and the main factors of variables to predict the company's staff demand.
This method is more complicated and is generally used only in large companies with a good management base.
★Trend extrapolation and regression analysis are essentially econometric modeling methods, with the following differences:
A. Trend extrapolation is the simplest method, with only one independent variable, the time variable.
B, regression analysis is also simpler and does not take into account the interactions between the different independent variables;
C, econometric modeling method integrates a variety of factors and takes into account the interactions between the factors.
(F) Gray predictive modeling
Gray predictive modeling is also the essence of econometric modeling, the difference is that the econometric modeling method of data integrity has a very high requirement, while the gray predictive modeling method can contain both known information and unknown or non-deterministic information on the system for prediction.
Gray predictive modeling method features:
Gray process of data randomness, chaotic, but orderly and bounded, that is, the process of the data set implies the potential law.
The algorithms for prediction using the gray system are complex and require the use of specialized software for calculation.
(VII) Production Model Method
The production model method is based on the enterprise's level of output and total capital to make predictions, which is mainly based on the Douglas production function:
(VIII) Markov Analysis Method
The main idea of Markov Analysis Method is to find out the pattern of the organization's past personnel changes by observing the changes of the number of people within the enterprise in the past years.
★(IX) Staffing Quota Analysis [5 methods Multiple Choice]
A, work quota analysis method
B, job staffing method
C, equipment caretaker quota staffing method
D, labor efficiency staffing method
E, proportional staffing method
(X) Computer Simulation Method
Computer Simulation method is the most complex of the methods of human resources demand forecasting a method. Human resource management practitioners should choose to use according to the actual situation, should take as many methods for forecasting.
Precautions
Precautions for human resource demand forecasting methods:
1. Both the conversion ratio method and the mathematical model method are based on the relationship between existing or past organizational business volume and employees, and are suitable for forecasting the needs of employees with the **** same characteristics. The accuracy of this method of forecasting depends on:
A, the strength of the relationship between the two
B, the accuracy of this method of refining the relationship
C, the extent to which it will continue in the future. (Persistence)
2. Qualitative methods of human resource demand forecasting are predicated on the premise that the functional relationship is constant, but this is often unrealistic and therefore needs to be corrected using the subjective judgment of managers.
(1) The decision to improve the quality of a product or service or to enter a new market will affect the need for new personnel and the ability of the existing staff of the enterprise and other characteristics, when only quantitative analysis is not enough.
(2) Increases in the level of production technology and improvements in management practices can reduce the need for personnel, which is difficult to reflect in quantitative analysis.
(3) The financial resources at the disposal of the firm in the future will constrain not only the number but also the quality of new employees, because financial resources constrain the salary level of employees