The main listed companies in the industry: At present, the main listed companies in the domestic intelligent pension industry are Yanhua Intelligence (002178), Wanda Information (300168), YiHuaLu (300212), Kangtai Medical (300869), JiuAn Medical (002432), Ainon Pension (870925), GuanXin Software (834376) and so on.
The core data of this article: demographics, market size, pension model, competitive landscape
Industry Overview
1, Definition
Intelligent Pension, also known as Smart Pension, refers to the fusion of the application of healthcare electronics, Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, mobile Internet and other information technology and products, the collection of human body signs, the home environment and other data, and the realization of a new era of healthcare. Information interconnection and analysis and processing among families, community medical institutions, health care institutions, and professional medical institutions, to provide intelligent, personalized and diversified products and services to meet the increasingly urgent needs of the people for health care and old age.
According to the "Smart Healthy Aging Products and Services Promotion Catalog (2020 Edition)" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) and the National Health Commission (NHC), China's smart healthy aging products mainly include: wearable health management devices, portable health monitoring devices, self-service health testing devices, smart aging monitoring devices, and family robots in five major categories. Intelligent health care services mainly include: chronic disease management, home health care, personalized health management, Internet health consulting, life care, information technology in nursing institutions six categories.
2, industry chain analysis: the industry chain is long, involving many industries
According to the forward-looking analysis, the upstream of the service chain of the intelligent elderly Internet of Things, cloud services and other advanced technology supply; intelligent equipment, chip, sensors and other core parts supply, as well as caregiver training and pension financial services; which advanced technology and intelligent equipment core parts supply is the main difference between the smart elderly The traditional part of the elderly.
The midstream of the industry chain is a variety of intelligent senior citizenship products and service providers, and the downstream is the three major types of senior citizenship demand market, namely home care, community care and institutional care.
Industry development history: a late start, has entered a stage of rapid development
Domestic intelligent senior care industry started relatively late. 2007, the China Construction Industry Association Intelligent Buildings Branch Vice President Hu Liming published "new digital home-type solutions for the elderly community," put forward the "digital old age;" 2010, the academic community began to use the "digital old age". In 2010, academics began to use the concept of "information-based elderly care"; in 2011, the concept of "technology-based elderly care" appeared; in 2012, the National Office for the Elderly for the first time put forward the concept of "intelligent elderly care". The concept of "intelligent elderly" was first proposed by the National Office for the Elderly in 2012.
Based on the current technological and economic conditions, 2015-2017 is the incubation period for the industry. During this period, regulations, policies, standards and innovation systems and a credible trading environment adapted to the senior care industry will be gradually established, and many enterprises will continue to push forward.Around 2018-2020 will be the advancement period of the industry. During this period, all kinds of enterprises adapted to the smart senior care industry will be basically established, innovative smart senior care service models will continue to emerge, and the investment and financing market will be very active. The important turning point for the development of the smart senior care industry is around 2021. after 2021, the intangible market size based on the network will gradually approach the traditional tangible market size, and the smart senior care industry will enter a rapid development stage at this time.
Industry policy background: policies continue to support the long-term benefit of the industry
Population aging trend in the context of the central level has introduced relevant policies to promote intelligent aging, September 17, 2011, the State Council issued the "China's aging development" Twelfth Five-Year Plan "proposed: to speed up the construction of the information system of the home elderly service, to do a good job of home elderly service, the construction of the information system, the construction of the home elderly service. The State Council issued the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of China's Elderly" on September 17, 2011, proposing to accelerate the construction of the information system for home care services, do a good job of piloting the information platform for home care services, and gradually expand the scope of the pilot.
Since then, in the "Opinions on Accelerating the Development of the Elderly Service Industry" and "Implementing Opinions on Encouraging the Participation of Private Capital in the Development of the Elderly Service Industry", the word "elderly service informatization construction" has been mentioned in a number of policies.
In 2013, the National Committee on Aging set up the "National Intelligent Pension Expert Committee" for the development of China's intelligent pension service business and industry to navigate the pulse; in 2015, the State Council issued the "Actively Promoting the "Internet Plus" Action Guidelines", which explicitly mentions that the "Internet Plus" is the most effective way to promote the development of pension services. In 2015, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Actively Promoting the "Internet Plus" Action", which clearly put forward the goal and task of "promoting the development of the intelligent health care industry". 2017 released the "Action Plan for the Development of the Intelligent Health Care Industry (2017-2020)", which put forward the need to accelerate the development of the intelligent health care industry and plan the relevant objectives.
In 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MOCA) and the National Health and Health Commission (NHHC) released the Action Plan for the Development of the Smart Healthy Aging Industry (2021-2025), which proposed to further promote the development of the smart healthy aging industry and set out the relevant targets. These favorable policies and information mean that smart aging has begun to rise to the level of national strategy.
Industry development status
1, the proportion of the elderly population continues to rise, the "silver economy" is booming
-- deepening of the degree of aging of the population, the health of the residents concerned about the rise
From population From the perspective of age composition, in recent years, China's population aged 15-64 years has continued to decline, and the proportion of people aged 65 years and above has been growing year by year, aging of the population continues to aggravate. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the proportion of China's population aged 0-14 years old was 17.9%, the proportion of the population aged 15-64 years old was 68.6%, and the proportion of the population aged 65 years old and above was 13.5%.In 2021, according to the preliminary statistical data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in the "Statistical Bulletin on the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China for the year of 2021", the preliminary statistical data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that By the end of 2021, the proportion of people aged 65 and above in China exceeded 14%, reaching 14.2%, and the aging of the population continued to deepen.
People's attention to health insurance is rising. In recent years, China's health insurance premium income has been maintaining a growth trend, 2011-2020, China's health insurance market premium income rose from 69.2 billion yuan to 817.3 billion yuan, especially in 2020, the new Crown Pneumonia epidemic accelerated the development of the health insurance market industry, 2020 health insurance income growth rate of as high as 15.67%. 2021, China's health insurance revenue raised again to 844.7 billion yuan, reflecting China's growing concern for physical health.
-- Growth in the number of senior care institutions and rapid growth in the consumption demand of the elderly
In response to the growing trend of aging, China has been increasing the construction of senior care institutions and upgrading their quality in recent years, and the level of senior care services has continued to improve. Over the past five years, the construction of senior care institutions in China has seen rapid growth. By the end of 2021, there were 39,800 senior care institutions providing accommodation in China, and the number of beds in senior care institutions providing accommodation reached 5.016 million.
Note: The caliber of the statistics of nursing institutions and beds before 2018 is the service institutions for the elderly and the disabled, and the service institutions for the elderly will be counted separately from 2019.
According to a survey by the National Network of Middle-aged and Elderly People, 45 percent of elderly people in Chinese cities have savings deposits, and the balance of elderly people's deposits exceeded 17 trillion yuan in 2016, with a per capita deposit of nearly 80,000 yuan. It is expected that by 2020, the total pension of the elderly will exceed 7 trillion yuan. in 2016, the market consumption demand of China's senior recreation industry was over 5 trillion yuan. However, according to incomplete estimation, the products provided for the recreational life of the elderly in 2016 were between 500 billion and 700 billion yuan, with continued strong demand but insufficient effective supply. With the increasing supply of recreation industry, the market consumption demand of China's elderly recreation industry will reach about 20 trillion yuan in 2030.
2, China's intelligent senior care industry model analysis
--Currently, "9073" is the main, "community" and "home". The "home" model has a lot of room for growth
Currently, there are two types of elderly care models in China, namely "9064" and "9073". Among them, the "9064" model was proposed by Beijing, that is, 90% of the elderly in the socialized service assistance through the family care of the elderly, 6% of the elderly through the government to buy community care services for the elderly, 4% of the elderly in the elderly service institutions centralized elderly. Another model of old-age care implemented in China is the "9073" model, which was first put forward by Shanghai in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, i.e., 90 per cent of the elderly are cared for by their families, 7 per cent enjoy community-based old-age care services, and 3 per cent enjoy institutionalized old-age care services. The model was first proposed by Shanghai in the 11th Five-Year Plan.
Referring to the experience of Japan and the United States, in the payment system and the construction of old-age pension gives our country a lot of inspiration, taking into account the current situation in our country, the future model of old-age home care may become the mainstream trend, the community old-age pension and institutionalized old-age pension will become an important supplement. At present, China's main pension model for the "9073" model.
According to the "Report on the Demand for Elderly Services in Chinese Cities (2021)" released at the end of 2021, 52.9% of urban residents are willing to choose to age in place, and the proportion of the willingness to age in place has dropped significantly, while the proportion of community-based and institutionalized elderly care demand has increased to 26.5% and 20.6%, respectively.
--Home-based, community-based and institutionalized
In home-based aging, smart devices and technology products are aids for family members. Since aging at home is the main mode of aging service in China at present, the market demand for aging at home is huge, which leads to the market demand for smart aging at home products is also particularly high. And with home care as the target market of the smart home care industry low threshold, the possibility of commercialization success, easy to drive the whole industry chain, so in a position of priority development.
China's elderly care industry is based on the home, community-based, institutional support, the three modes complement each other and influence each other.
3, the rapid growth of the market size of the intelligent elderly industry
In recent years, with the aggravation of China's aging population, began the development of the silver economy, China's intelligent elderly industry development direction is further clarified, and the industry scale is expanding. According to the 2019 White Paper on Smart Pension Industry released by the Internet Industry Research Institute of Tsinghua University, the market scale of China's smart pension industry in 2014 was 0.17 trillion yuan, and the scale of China's smart pension industry in 2020 exceeded 4 trillion yuan, which is growing rapidly. Foresight combined with the penetration of intelligent senior care in the overall senior care market over the years for preliminary calculations, China's intelligent senior care industry market size in 2021 or 4.57 trillion yuan.
Industry Competition Pattern
1, Regional Competition: Demonstration Enterprises Concentrated in Economically Developed Regions
Three national ministries and commissions announced five batches of *** counting 203 intelligent health care demonstration enterprises, it can be seen that most of the provinces of China have developed a smart pension pilot, but these pilots are generally concentrated in the city rather than the rural areas, and the development of the pilot of the better Mainly concentrated in Beijing, Shandong, Shanghai and other developed regions, the central and western regions of the development of intelligent elderly late start, low degree of significant characteristics.
2, corporate competition: information technology companies accounted for the highest
Three national ministries and commissions announced five batches of *** counting 203 intelligent health care demonstration enterprises, including 76 information technology companies and 37 medical science and technology companies, occupying half of the entire market.
In the intelligent healthy aging demonstration enterprises, information technology companies accounted for the highest proportion, amounting to 38%, mainly due to the following advantages of information technology companies: (1) strong independent research and development capabilities, providing a strong impetus for the sustainable innovation of the enterprise; (2) the advantage of a wealth of information resources, providing professional and high-quality intelligent services for the senior living industry; (3) mature senior living products, services and systems, capable of market-oriented promotion and operation. that can be marketed and operated; (4) clear operation mode and profit model, basically realizing sustainable development.
3, product competition: the largest number of intelligent testing equipment shortlisted
In September 2020, after local recommendations, expert review, etc., the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National Health and Health Commission formulated the "Intelligent Healthy Elderly Products and Services Promotion Catalog (2020 Edition)", in which the shortlisted products of the Intelligent Healthy Elderly Products Promotion Catalog list of products a **** there are 118 pieces, and there are 20 subcategories, of which the smart rehabilitation equipment and smart testing equipment as well as community self-help experience equipment have the largest number of shortlisted products, which are 21, 14 and 10 pieces, respectively.
Note: As of June 2022, the official has not yet released the 2021 version of the Catalog for the Promotion of Smart Healthy Aging Products and Services.
According to the Catalogue for the Promotion of Smart Healthy Aging Products and Services (2020 Edition), of which there are 120 types of service a***s and six sub-categories on the list of the Catalogue for the Promotion of Smart Healthy Aging Services, the number of shortlisted services in home healthy aging services and life care services, as well as informatization services for elderly institutions is the largest, with 39, 23 and 18 pieces respectively.
Industry development prospects and trend forecast
1, the intelligent elderly market size will be a full outbreak
2, the intelligent elderly industry, the four major development trends: humanized, ageing, combined with the offline, medical care
The application of Internet technology can assist in the overall elderly care industry, to provide a more personalized and targeted services, but at present, China's intelligent elderly industry Part of the products and services can not meet the diversified needs of the elderly, product polarization is serious and other issues such as the development is still inadequate.
With the accelerated aging of China's population, the intelligent pension industry will be humanized service products, health management combined with offline, medical care and other directions, the establishment of integrated management of the product structure and service system.
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "China Intelligent Aging Industry Market Outlook Forecast and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report" by Juniper Networks Research Institute.
What is the outlook for smart aging?
1.
Intelligent aging is a new aging mode that uses information and communication technology as a tool to connect various service systems and provide aging services for the society. Compared with the traditional family pension, community pension and institutional pension, the "smart pension" mode has its unique advantages, which also makes the potential of "smart pension" to get the attention of all parties.
What is the stage of development of the smart elderly?
With the aggravation of aging and the rise of the "silver economy", the state strongly supports the background of the pension industry, the smart pension industry ushered in a good period of development. At present, China's pension is mainly China's pension industry to home-based, community-based, institutional support, the three modes complement each other, each other's influence. In the future, intelligent aging will be assisted by intelligent hardware and intelligent platform, from "help the old" to "use the old" and "filial piety" burst.
Wise ageing is still at the stage of "helping the elderly"
It is generally believed that "wise ageing" was first proposed by the British Life Trust, also known as the "all-intelligent elderly system". With the continuous development of technology, the connotation of this concept is constantly expanding. According to the definition of the Action Plan for the Development of the Smart Healthy Aging Industry (2017-2020), smart healthy aging refers to the sensor network system and information platform for the elderly at home, the community and the elderly institutions, and on this basis to provide real-time, fast, efficient, and low-cost, IOT, interconnected and intelligent aging services. There are three main aspects of its specific meaning, namely, intelligent help for the elderly, intelligent use of the elderly and intelligent filial piety.
Judging from the current technical and economic conditions, 2017 and before can be categorized as the cultivation period of the smart elderly service industry. During this period, regulations, policies, standards and innovation systems and a credible trading environment adapted to the senior care service industry will be gradually established, and many smart senior care service enterprises will continue to push forward.Around 2018-2020 will be the growth period of the smart senior care service industry.After 2020, the size of the intangible market based on the network will gradually approach the size of the traditional tangible market, and it is expected that the smart senior care service industry will enter the industry explosion period at At this time to enter the industry outbreak period, at the same time, the wisdom of the elderly will also be from the simple "help the elderly" to "use the old" and "filial piety" direction burst.
Wisdom pension market pattern is basically established
(1) From the policy side, 2019 is the first year of the policy of wisdom pension. According to forward-looking incomplete statistics, in 2019, national and local governments*** counted more than 70 relevant smart aging policies enacted, compared with only about 50 in 2018.
(2) From the demand side, in 2019, China's elderly population over 60 years old has reached about 254 million people, accounting for 18.1% of the national population, and according to the relevant data of the General Report on the Study of National Strategies to Cope with Population Aging, China's population aging has entered a stage of rapid development, presenting a large absolute scale, rapid development speed, significant aging, uneven development, fluctuating It is characterized by a large absolute scale, rapid development speed, significant aging, uneven development and large fluctuations. In the coming period, China's demand for senior care services presents the development trend of both total quantity and quality, which will bring great opportunities and challenges for the development of China's intelligent senior care industry.
(3)From the competition side, the market is still in the stage of incremental killing. According to forward-looking statistics on the three batches of intelligent senior care demonstration enterprises, the demonstration enterprises include 50 information technology companies, accounting for 43%, followed by 24 senior care service companies and 20 medical technology companies. According to data released by YEEO in May 2019,*** there are 31 companies involved in the smart elderly care industry. By organizing forward-looking statistics among them, there are 12 listed companies focusing on the construction of intelligent senior care service platforms, and the vast majority of businessmen are cutting into the intelligent senior care service industry by cooperating with government departments (such as the Civil Affairs Bureau) to provide comprehensive solutions.
(4)From the technology side, general-purpose technology includes simple positioning, human-computer interaction, etc., while functional positioning includes vital signs monitoring, monitoring of abnormal behavior of the elderly, blood glucose monitoring and other technologies; intelligent hardware technology includes wearable devices, portable monitoring equipment, self-service testing equipment, guardianship equipment, home service robots, etc., service system platforms are dominated by technologies such as big data, cloud computing, 5G, mobile Internet and so on. mobile Internet and other technologies.
(5) From the mode of view: from the analysis of the mode of operation, China's implementation of the "9073" is mainly based on home care, supplemented by community care. From the service mode analysis, the main medical care mode, supplemented by cultural tourism mode.
(6) From the end of the system: the policy system and investment system has completed the "warm-up" work. Product innovation in the technical system is being established, the China Association for the Elderly released the "Demand Side Perspective on Elderly Consumption and Willingness to Demand Research Report" in April 2019, pointing out that at present there are more than 60,000 kinds of senior products in the world, and there are more than 40,000 kinds of Japanese products, which account for more than 2/3 of them, and only more than 2,000 kinds of self-help products have been developed in our country.
China's elderly care model to the home community as the mainstream
Entering the 21st century, with the continuous improvement of the market economic system, social welfare unemployment has also been a significant development. The country has promoted the policy of socialization of social welfare, the original model of old-age service in constant change to survive, at the same time, a variety of new forms of old-age service such as sprouting out of the ground. Senior care services can be divided into three main categories, home care, institutional care and community care.
As of the end of 2019, the number of elderly people aged 60 was 253.88 million, according to the "9073" pattern of senior care services, the number of community-based senior care in China should be around 17.77 million, according to the "9064" pattern of senior care services, there is also a "9064" pattern of senior care services.
According to the "9073" pattern, the current number of people in China's community nursing care should be about 17.77 million, and according to the "9064" pattern, there are also about 15.23 million people.
According to the "Dynamics of Intelligent Elderly Research", "intelligent elderly" can be categorized into three modes, namely, intelligent home, intelligent community, and intelligent institution, according to the spatial location. Intelligent aging is also an important part of the smart city construction, "triple-network integration" to support the implementation of intelligent aging services, "smart city" in the application of big data to complete the demand for services, the use of technology to support the realization of multi-window multi-disciplinary service resources. Effective docking of multi-window and multi-disciplinary service resources is realized with technological support. At present, all over the country has actively launched the exploration of the use of modern information technology to provide community home care services.
According to China's "9073" pension service planning, 90% of the elderly should be aged at home, 7% of the elderly in the community, 3% of the elderly in the pension institutions, intelligent pension focus is also mainly concentrated in the community aged at home.
Intelligent equipment and aging platform is the core innovation of intelligent aging
Intelligent aging industry chain is long and involves many industries, and its smooth development requires the cooperation of the government, enterprises, society, community, family and other aspects. In recent years, the government has increased its support for related technology enterprises as well as smart elderly products and services through various preferential policies, such as purchasing services and venue support; at the same time, it has cooperated with service intermediaries, big data enterprises, Internet enterprises, as well as related social organizations and research institutes through service outsourcing and other means to give full play to the professional strengths of the main bodies of elderly care supply and carry out collaborative innovation.
According to the forward-looking analysis, the upstream of the service chain of intelligent senior care includes intelligent equipment, senior care platform, caregiver training, senior care finance, housekeeping services, cultural life, etc., among which the intelligent equipment and senior care platform are the parts that are most different from the traditional senior care.
The core problem of China's institutional and community care is that it is difficult to weigh the operating costs and service quality. Both community and institutional care involve huge construction costs in the early stage, while the later operating prices and services are not proportional to the experience of the elderly will be affected. Our country to home care as the core of the main reason is also to reduce the construction costs involved in the early part of the old age, but the elderly at home in the presence of imperfect monitoring.
The monitoring problem of home care, the cost of community care and institutional care, intelligent equipment and information platforms can be alleviated to a certain extent.In June 2019, Zhejiang Chunxitang "Internet +" intelligent pension project landed, the use of intelligent terminals + intelligent pension platforms to create a nursing home without walls. The government issues free smart devices for eligible low-income, solitary, empty-nest, and elderly people through the form of pension service subsidies and government-purchased service projects, etc. The smart pension expert Ai Zhaohang has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Tsubaki Xitang, and with the project, it provides smart terminal equipment - Ai Zhaohang's small whale smart care bracelet, S3 smart watch, and Ai Zhaohang's remote smart care medical blood pressure. The intelligent terminal equipment is the entrance to the service, with the intelligent health care service information platform, to build a unified and open pension service system, through the effective operation of the platform service resources, to create a "nursing home without walls".
Intelligent hardware with personalization and diversification as the direction of development
In February 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly with the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National Health and Family Planning Commission*** issued the "Action Plan for the Development of Intelligent Healthy Aging Industry (2017-2020)", which puts forward the need to enrich the supply of intelligent health care service products. For different application environments such as family, community, and institutions, the development of health management wearable devices, portable health monitoring equipment, self-service health testing equipment, intelligent elderly guardianship equipment, and family service robots, etc., to meet diversified and personalized health and aging needs. Intelligent hardware industry can focus on the development of state-supported intelligent health care service products.
Wisdom of the elderly platform around the healthy life, happy life and peace of mind
Today's wisdom of the elderly platform has become a popular trend in the elderly, wisdom of the elderly platform using the Internet of Things, the Internet, the mobile Internet technology, intelligent call, cloud technology, GPS positioning technology and other information technology, to create
"system + service + elderly + terminal" wisdom of the elderly service. The future of the smart elderly platform for the elderly to provide superior pension services, the elderly's physical state, safety and daily activities to effectively monitor, all-round to meet the needs of the elderly in all aspects of life, health, safety, entertainment and so on.
Wisdom of the elderly industry scale will exceed 4 trillion
In recent years by the domestic information technology industry and the health of the elderly industry in-depth integration of the stimulus, according to China's industrial economic information network, according to statistical estimates, China's intelligent health of the elderly industry scale of nearly 3.2 trillion yuan in 2019, the compound growth rate of the last three years more than 18%, is expected to 2020, the scale of the industry will exceed 4 trillion yuan. Trillion yuan.