From the 2023 GDP target, the value of the 31 provinces ranges from 4% to 9.5%. Among them, the highest is in Hainan Province, the lowest is in Tianjin, and the other provinces are mostly concentrated in the range of 5 percent to 6.5 percent, with 6 percent being the majority.
In order to realize this year's economic growth target, key work arrangements for 2023 have been deployed around the world, with expanding effective investment and promoting consumption remaining key words. Many places emphasize the full expansion of effective social demand, to restore and expand consumption in a priority position, more than twenty provinces clearly put forward the fixed asset investment growth target this year. The direction of investment, infrastructure construction is still in an important position, manufacturing investment is also expected.
The central economic work conference held at the end of last year, the economic work in 2023, we should start from the strategic overall situation, from the improvement of the psychological expectations of the community, boosting confidence in development, the outline of a good job. A number of experts analyzed that for the economic trend in 2023, the market optimism is expected to continue to strengthen. Provinces put forward the expected target of economic growth to convey the determination and confidence to fight the economy and accelerate the economic rebound. All over the "stable growth" in a more prominent position, focusing on economic construction, will strongly support the national economy stabilized recovery.
All over the struggle for economic
At present, there are 24 provinces announced the 2022 economic growth rate, have realized positive growth, 22 provinces and municipalities announced the 2022 GDP growth rate in real terms specific values, the range of 2% to 5%, of which the highest for the Jiangxi Province, the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the lowest for the Chongqing Municipality, Guizhou Province, Guangdong Province, are expected to be about 2%. In addition, Beijing and Hainan Province only pointed out that in 2022 to achieve "positive growth", did not announce the specific value.
From around the GDP target announced this year, most provinces target higher than last year's economic growth. Among them, Hainan for about 9.5%, Tibet for about 8%, Jiangxi, Xinjiang for about 7%, Anhui, Ningxia, Hunan, Hubei for about 6.5%. Chongqing was more than 6 percent, Gansu and Henan were 6 percent, and Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Fujian, Hebei, Sichuan and Guizhou were about 6 percent.
As the nation's economic center, Shanghai's GDP is expected to grow by more than 5.5 percent in 2023. Gong Zheng, mayor of Shanghai, explained that this is both realistically possible and takes into account the need for development and the balance between near and far. He pointed out that Shanghai is undertaking a series of major national strategic tasks, and the spillover-driven benefits are being released at an accelerated pace.
"Last year we introduced a large number of policies to stabilize growth and promote development, and the policy effect continues to show; coupled with objective reasons such as the low relative base last year, we have enough support and confidence to achieve this goal." Gong Zheng said, "We hope that through reasonable growth in volume, we can create better conditions for fuller employment and more stable prices, further boost market confidence and stabilize social expectations."
Guangdong, the top economic province, has set a target growth rate of 5 percent this year. An article published in the Nanfang Daily, ""Above 5%" is a growth target that "can be reached by jumping up"," pointed out that, compared with Guangdong's "14th Five-Year Plan" economic growth target, this year's growth of 5% or more can win the initiative for the work that follows. To win the initiative for the later work, to ensure the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" average annual growth of about 5% of the target; against the "economic province to take the lead" mission to bear, but also the need to Guangdong's economy of the "in "better support the national economy of the" stability ".
Zhejiang Province also set a 5% growth target. Zhejiang Daily said in an article that this comprehensive consideration of a number of factors. First of all, to see the current development situation, anti-epidemic policy optimization and adjustment, not once and for all, in anticipation of the flow of people, logistics and business flow more smooth at the same time, we should see the economic and social development is facing an unprecedented new situation; secondly, the impact of the epidemic for three years can not be ignored, the basis of economic recovery is not yet solid; finally, to benchmark the international development trend, from the point of view of the experience of overseas, and gradually out of the epidemic, the consumption environment Gradually improve the general direction is certain, but by the epidemic rebound and residents to strengthen the awareness of self-protection, short-term consumption is still under pressure.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that by the impact of the epidemic in 2022 exceeded expectations, by the end of the year, the difficulties faced by various places are very prominent, coupled with the impact of the internal and external complex environment, in such a basis to set the regional 2023 economic work objectives, more reflect a bottom-line thinking. The growth rate is expected to target a downward revision from the previous year, but also around the economic difficulties faced, combined with the analysis of their own conditions to make a prediction.
Pang Ming, chief economist and head of the research department of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, told China Business News that the establishment of higher GDP growth targets in some provinces shows that the current economic operation has maintained the recovery and stabilization trend, and also reflects the determination of the all-out effort to spell out the economy. With the orderly implementation of measures to optimize the prevention and control of the epidemic and the continued promotion of a package of policies and successive measures to stabilize the economy in full force and effect, all departments and regions are seizing the window period, opportunity period, and the period of attack to sprint, and it is expected that this year's economy will see an obvious, comprehensive and positive improvement.
Expanding effective social demand with all-out efforts
The Central Economic Work Conference, held at the end of last year, pointed out in its deployment of economic work in 2023 that it would be necessary to "focus on expanding domestic demand," and mentioned that "restoring and expanding consumption should be prioritized. ".
First Financial combed through the publicized key work arrangements for 2023 around the world and found that consumption and investment are still the key words. The key to economic recovery in 2023 still lies in making every effort to expand effective social demand, especially actively expanding domestic demand, Pang Ming said. The economic work in the next phase is expected to be supported by the fundamental role of consumption and the key role of investment to stabilize the confidence of market players and the expectations of the residential sector.
Shanghai proposed to enhance the fundamental role of consumption in economic development. Put the recovery and expansion of consumption in a priority position, deepen the construction of international consumption center city. Fujian clearly, in-depth implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, stabilize and expand automobiles, home appliances and other bulk consumption, and encourage the development of new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, green building materials, such as rural action. Hebei proposed to do everything possible to expand domestic demand, increase the catering, accommodation, retail and other industries to help.
Sichuan clear, enhance the role of domestic demand on economic growth, including vigorously promote consumption to restore blood, accelerate the construction of world famous, globally renowned world important tourist destinations, and continue to increase investment in projects, speed up the construction of modern infrastructure, and release the potential for investment in new urbanization. Shandong will vigorously promote the restoration and expansion of consumption in the first place, and will be implemented this year, "Shandong consumption boost year" action.
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said consumption is the ballast of the economy and plays a fundamental role in economic growth. In 2023, when the global economy is likely to fall into recession and external demand will shrink further, the role of domestic demand, especially consumption, will be more prominent.
Yao Yang, director of Peking University's National Development Research Institute, suggested that it is still necessary to focus on promoting consumption in 2023. In the past few years, especially in 2022, consumption is low, it is easy to rebound on the basis of a low base, coupled with the people's desire to consume held back for three years. 2023 consumption will become the main focus of stabilizing the economy.
UBS Securities expects consumption growth to be close to 6% to 7% on the premise that GDP growth will be around 5% in 2023. Excess savings will be an important factor driving consumption in 2023. The main reasons for dampening consumption over the past three years have been limited service-related consumption scenarios and lack of consumer confidence. With the recovery of offline scenes and the rebound of confidence, consumer savings return to normalization, part of the excess savings will be converted into consumption, bringing about 10% consumption growth, which will be released this year or next year.
Multiple places clear investment plan this year
From around the government work report, more than two dozen provinces clearly put forward this year's fixed asset investment growth target.
Beijing said that this year to maintain the momentum of rapid growth in important areas of investment, investment in fixed assets in the whole society last year to step up to 800 billion yuan on the basis of continuing to maintain a good growth trend, and strive to achieve an increase of more than 4%. Zhejiang proposed, the implementation of expanding effective investment "thousand trillion" project, to ensure that the completion of major projects in 2023 investment of more than 1 trillion yuan, driven by fixed asset investment growth of more than 6%. Henan plans to start 100 major projects of about 10 billion yuan in four major areas, such as industrial transformation and infrastructure, and strive to complete investment of more than 2 trillion yuan in 2023.
Investment direction, infrastructure construction is still in an important position. Chongqing strives to reach an annual infrastructure investment growth rate of more than 11%; Xinjiang is clear that it will innovate to establish a diversified infrastructure investment and financing system, and promote the construction of transportation, energy, water conservancy, urban construction, new infrastructure and other areas, while promoting the start of construction of a number of railroads and highway major infrastructure projects.
Yang Chang, head of the policy group and chief analyst of the Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, told China Business News that from the perspective of the expenditure law, infrastructure investment is still the focus of expanding investment. From the field point of view, including aerospace power, ocean power, basic farmland renovation, and the sinking of high-quality medical resources are all expected to become the focus of infrastructure investment.
Manufacturing investment is also expected. Shanghai clearly will promote a number of leading, driven, demonstrative and good high-level industrial project landing; Jiangxi put forward the manufacturing base to re-engineer the action plan, the implementation of about 3,000 industrial enterprise technology reform projects; Guangdong will support 9,000 industrial enterprises to carry out equipment renewal and technological transformation, the new promotion of more than 7,000 enterprises "small upgrades
Chuanzhou, Guangdong will support 9,000 industrial enterprises to carry out equipment renewal and technological transformation, and newly promote more than 7,000 enterprises to "small-scale upgrading", and accelerate high-end, intelligent and green transformation.
Chuan Cai Securities pointed out that this year, infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will continue to bear the burden of stabilizing investment and promoting growth. Digitalization and intelligence, carbon neutral and green development is the key direction of China's manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading, high-end manufacturing transformation and upgrading will bring a lot of equipment renewal and transformation needs. The future is still likely to increase support for high-end manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation, manufacturing investment to a certain extent will undertake the task of bottoming out the economy. In the current stable growth policy vigorously driven by the new and old infrastructure areas to join forces to help China's stable and healthy economic development.
Provincial economic growth targets for 2023