I. The elderly population is ushering in a total peak, and the degree of aging is deepening.
There will be two growth peaks in the elderly population aged 65 and above. The first growth peak will be in 2018-2022, mainly due to the first "baby boom" births in new China, which will enter the aging period during this time; the second growth peak will be in 2027-2038, which will be the period of aging. The second growth peak will be in 2027-2038, when the "baby boom" born after the "Great Famine" enters the aging stage.
Second, the structure of the elderly population is changing, and the phenomenon of aging is becoming more and more prominent.
The aging population is divided into low-age people under the age of 80 and high-age people over the age of 80. 2019-2038 is mainly the growth of low-age people, and the low-age people account for about 2/3 of the aging population. from 2041 onwards, the number of high-age people grows rapidly, and the percentage will also increase rapidly.
From demographic dividend to population aging:
China's aging is characterized by an important background, that is, more than four decades since the reform and opening up, the working-age population has continued to increase, and the total dependency ratio has continued to decline. The total dependency ratio refers to the proportion of elderly people and young children (0-14 years old) in need of support to the working-age population, in other words, how many elderly people in need of care and children in need of support a working-age population has to support.
Just in the early stages of aging, overall, the ratio of dependent children has declined, but the proportion of elderly has begun to rise. In terms of population trends, starting from 1960 to 2049, the total population will peak around 2029 and start to decline thereafter.
But our working-age population peaked as early as 2012 and has now been declining for several years. As a result, the dependency ratio has already begun to rise, i.e. the number of people to support per working person is rising.