According to the investment strategy and referring to the profit index of industrial enterprises, the year-on-year growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises has rapidly climbed to nearly 20% in July and August, because the constituent stocks of industrial enterprises and non-financial listed companies overlap to some extent, and the historical value of profit growth rate of the two companies has almost maintained a similar trend; Therefore, under the guidance of high-frequency indicators such as the profits of industrial enterprises, the profits of non-financial A-shares will keep accelerating in the third quarter.
According to the consistent and comparable caliber (that is, the sample of the profit calculation value in the third quarter of 2020 is the listed company that has already announced its profit), the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of non-financial A-shares' net profit in the third quarter of 2020 is 22. 1%, and the single-quarter net profit growth rate is 35.2%. (Note: The measured samples here are listed companies that have published the performance forecast of the third quarterly report. Due to the limited samples available, there is a certain deviation between the measured value and the real value. The performance of the small and medium-sized board and the Growth Enterprise Market continued to improve, and the performance of the main board began to show signs of accelerated repair.
It is expected that the profits of major industries will be improved to varying degrees.
From the perspective of profit improvement and sustainability, the profit improvement of the manufacturing sector in the middle reaches is the most obvious. The industries such as electrical equipment, mechanical equipment and automobiles have continued the trend of rapid profit growth since the second quarter, and the production and sales of important industrial products such as photovoltaics, excavators, heavy trucks and passenger cars have maintained a high year-on-year growth rate.
Secondly, the profit growth rate of TMT plate has been further improved, mainly because the electronic and media plates have brought more profit increments.
Performance of drugs (medical devices, etc.). ) and the consumer service sector maintained a steady improvement trend, and the post-cycle consumption of real estate such as home appliances and light industry manufacturing began to release performance. It is expected that the profit rebound of the resource products sector will be relatively weak, and the upward price of some products will support the improvement of performance.
It is worth noting that, with the continuous efforts of countercyclical adjustment, the public utilities sector has performed outstandingly since the second quarter, and it is expected that it will maintain a high growth in the third quarter.
Third, areas with good quarterly performance and high industry prosperity-
1. All sectors of public utilities have achieved good results, and the income and profit of electricity (raw material cost reduction), water affairs (precipitation enhancement) and environmental protection projects (infrastructure projects) have increased relatively well.
2. The new energy sector with more photovoltaic and wind power enterprises has continued the trend of good performance since the second quarter.
3. Automobile industry chain: the production and sales of passenger cars and new energy vehicles bottomed out, and the profitability of the plate rebounded rapidly in the third quarter. Fundamentals of automobile manufacturers and parts companies in the upstream of industrial chain (such as tires, precision devices, engines, etc.). ) have improved to varying degrees.
The profitability of the consumer electronics industry accelerated in the third quarter.
5. The prosperity of heavy trucks, construction machinery and other sectors that benefited from the landing of infrastructure projects continued to rise.
Main industries: midstream manufacturing > TMT, medicine, consumption > resources, financial real estate.
It is expected that the profits of major industries will be improved to varying degrees. From the perspective of profit improvement and sustainability, the profit improvement of the manufacturing sector in the middle reaches is the most obvious. The industries such as electrical equipment, mechanical equipment and automobiles have continued the trend of rapid profit growth since the second quarter, and the production and sales of important industrial products such as photovoltaics, excavators, heavy trucks and passenger cars have maintained a high year-on-year growth rate. Secondly, the profit growth rate of TMT plate has been further improved, mainly because the electronic and media plates have brought more profit increments. Performance of drugs (medical devices, etc.). ) and the consumer service sector maintained a steady improvement trend, and the post-cycle consumption of real estate such as home appliances and light industry manufacturing began to release performance. It is expected that the profit rebound of the resource products sector will be relatively weak, and the upward price of some products will support the improvement of performance.
It is worth noting that, with the continuous efforts of countercyclical adjustment, the public utilities sector has performed outstandingly since the second quarter, and it is expected to maintain a high growth in the third quarter, mainly due to the relatively good growth in revenue and profit of electricity (raw material cost reduction), water affairs (rainwater increase) and environmental protection projects (infrastructure projects).
Good performance and upward prosperity: new energy/infrastructure industrial chains such as automobile industry chain/public utilities/photovoltaic wind power.
Automobile industry chain
The domestic automobile industry has gradually picked up, and the production and sales of passenger cars and new energy vehicles have bottomed out. The profit of the A-share automobile sector rebounded rapidly in the third quarter, and the automakers and parts companies in the upstream of the industrial chain (such as tires, precision devices, engines, etc.) basically improved. ) have improved to varying degrees.
Since the third quarter, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have also increased rapidly, and the corresponding battery sector has performed relatively well. New energy vehicles are one of the few industries with clear growth space. Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council adopted the development plan of new energy automobile industry to encourage the development and innovation of automobile operating system and power battery.
Background: Since July, the A-share automobile sector has continued to rise. Stimulated by the unexpected "Golden September and Silver 10", the superimposed valuation increased, and some analysts shouted that "automobile investment is not going to the midfield, but just beginning".
Since the second half of the year, the auto market in China has been recovering continuously, and the sales volume in September was higher than expected. "Golden September and Silver 10" is colorful.
In terms of sectors, according to the data of China Automobile Association, the total automobile sales in China in September was 2.565 million, up by 12.8% year-on-year. As of September, automobile production and sales have increased for six consecutive months, of which the sales growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months.
The most striking thing is that under the background of the support policies for new energy vehicles being introduced in various places after the epidemic, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both reached a historical record in September-136,000 vehicles and138,000 vehicles were completed respectively, up by 48% and 67.7% respectively year-on-year and 28.9% month-on-month.
Haitong Securities believes that according to this trend, the sales structure and industry structure of the automobile industry are expected to continue to be optimized in the future, and electrification and intelligence will continue to contribute. It is predicted that the automobile industry will still be "better than the market" this year.
Huachuang Securities believes that automobile investment has not yet reached the midfield, but has just begun to officially kick off. During the National Day, the overall sales situation of China automobile market was good. Since the outbreak, the overall sales volume has shown an obvious warming trend, and it is expected that the profit of plate will recover greatly in the third quarter.
Considering that the total profit growth rate of automobiles above designated size reached 78% and 38% from July to August respectively, Huachuang Securities expects that the automobile sector will produce the third quarterly report that exceeds expectations, which will promote the further repair of market expectations.
New energy sources: photovoltaic and wind power.
Photovoltaic and wind power enterprises have concentrated more new energy sectors, continuing the trend of continuous improvement in performance since the second quarter.
Wind power: The industry as a whole has maintained a rapid development trend, the construction of wind farms has been accelerated, the production capacity of the industry has been improved, and the upstream and downstream demand of the industrial chain is strong. The profit growth rate of some companies in the wind power equipment sector in the third quarter further expanded compared with the growth rate in the second quarter, and even doubled in the first three quarters.
Photovoltaic: Since the second half of this year, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a situation of rising volume and price. On the one hand, the relative shortage of supply side has prompted the prices of silicon materials, silicon wafers and photovoltaic glass to rise sharply; On the other hand, the third and fourth quarters are the peak season for overseas photovoltaic demand, and the number of photovoltaic exports has also remained at a high level, so the performance of photovoltaic listed companies is also more eye-catching.
Background: The leader put forward that "the peak of carbon emission in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060" is China's solemn commitment to the international community.
However, at present, the proportion of fossil energy power generation in China's power structure is still very high. The proportion of electricity in China's primary energy consumption is less than 30%. The road to carbon neutrality is very difficult.
For this reason, the Beijing Declaration on Wind Energy issued by the 2020 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference held in June 65438+1October 65438+April proposed that in order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, it is necessary to set up a space for wind power development in line with the national strategy of carbon neutrality in the Tenth Five-Year Plan: to ensure that the annual installed capacity is increased by more than 50 million kilowatts.
After 2025, the annual installed capacity of wind power in China should be no less than 60 million kilowatts, at least 800 million kilowatts in 2030 and at least 3 billion kilowatts in 2060.
The declaration also stated that governments should increase their support for key technical fields such as offshore wind power and provide necessary policy support for building the most cost-effective wind power.
Faced with the "three highs" characteristics of offshore wind power (high investment cost, high subsidized electricity price, high construction technology and high risk), there are two views in the industry: one is that offshore wind power can achieve parity in 2022; Another view is that offshore wind power parity will take at least five years.
A-share wind power sector rose sharply.
Infrastructure industrial chain: heavy trucks, construction machinery, etc.
Construction machinery: Since the fourth quarter of last year, the approval speed of infrastructure projects has increased rapidly. Under the background of continuous countercyclical adjustment in the first half of the year, the approval of infrastructure projects has further increased, and the completion of infrastructure investment has also recovered rapidly. With the continuous landing of downstream infrastructure projects, the demand for core products such as lifting machinery, concrete machinery and excavators has increased substantially, especially the sales growth of excavators has remained at a high level, and the prosperity of construction machinery has continued to rise, and its performance improvement is very certain.
Heavy trucks: under the countercyclical adjustment of infrastructure, the unit price and sales volume of heavy trucks have increased beyond expectations. In the medium and long term, the growth center of the industry has a high probability of moving up, and the corresponding leading enterprises will have the opportunity to increase the volume and price of core products.
Background: Driven by infrastructure demand, the sales of heavy trucks exceeded last year, and the sales of excavators surged by 65% in September.
GF Securities pointed out that the continuous recovery of medium and long-term loan data since the second half of the year reflects the substantial improvement of the credit status of entity enterprises, which means that there are two main paths to actively boost the downstream equipment side.
(1) Construction machinery with infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing as its downstream;
(2) The field of generalized automation equipment driven by manufacturing capacity expansion and capacity replacement.
The recovery of medium-and long-term loan data of enterprises in this round began in September of 20 19, and has been going on for 12 months now.
This trend is reflected in the construction machinery related to infrastructure. The cumulative sales volume of heavy trucks in June 5438+10-September exceeded last year, and the sales volume of excavators in June 5438+10-September increased by 32% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 25 excavator enterprises included in the statistics in September sold 26,000 excavators, up 65% year-on-year; Among them, there are 23,000 sets in China, up 71%year-on-year; 3,436 units were exported, up 3 1% year-on-year.
From June 5438 to September 2020, * * * sold 237,000 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 32%; Domestic 2,654.38+0.3 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 33%; It exported 24,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22%.
According to the First Commercial Vehicle Network, the sales volume of heavy trucks in September was136,000 vehicles, up 63% year-on-year, and the previous value was 78%, up 4.7% month-on-month. In 2020, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy truck market from June to September (1.22 million vehicles) has successfully exceeded the annual sales volume of last year (1 1.7 million vehicles).
Huabao Securities said that the domestic economy continued to recover and the growth rate of freight volume rebounded. In September, domestic freight volume increased by 4.8% year-on-year. Superposition and overload control, road freight continues to recover, tractor demand is strong, and the heavy truck market is highly prosperous.
GF Securities said that the growth rate of medium and long-term loans of enterprises is one of the forward-looking indicators of the demand for construction machinery, and the fast-growing medium and long-term loans provide a solid foundation for the subsequent demand for construction machinery, and the prosperity of construction machinery industries such as excavators and trucks is expected to continue to improve.
Public utilities: environmental protection projects, thermal power and hydropower.
All departments of public utilities have achieved good results. For the environmental protection engineering and service sector, under the continuous efforts of countercyclical adjustment, according to the national online approval platform for investment projects, the investment in infrastructure project approval doubled in the first half of the year, and about 60% of the investment went to water conservancy, environment and public facilities management. Therefore, some companies in the field of environmental protection engineering and services say that the increase in the number of project operations has greatly increased their operating income.
The profitability of thermal power and hydropower industries has also improved significantly. The former mainly benefits from the lower price of raw coal, thus increasing profits, while the latter benefits from more rain and increased power generation.
consumer electronics
In the third quarter, the profitability of the consumer electronics sector accelerated. Due to wearable smart devices, the third and fourth quarters are often the peak season for the sales of consumer electronic products, and the sales of wearable smart devices (such as headphones) and smart phones have maintained rapid growth.
Chemical industry: compound fertilizer, pesticide, integration of refining and chemical industry, plastics and rubber.
Since the beginning of 2020, the prices of agricultural products such as corn, rice and wheat have risen to varying degrees, and farmers' willingness to plant has increased, which has promoted the recovery of demand for compound fertilizers and pesticides.
Since the second quarter, the refining and chemical business has continued to recover, some companies have the competitive advantage of refining and chemical integration, and the production and sales of leading enterprises have further improved.
Plastic, rubber and other sub-industries have also achieved good performance growth, mainly due to the gradual recovery of the automobile industry, and the sales of corresponding materials and other products have resumed growth.
Building materials: glass, consumer building materials.
Under the influence of the previous production capacity contraction and the recovery of downstream industries such as automobile real estate, the price of glass has continued to rise since the third quarter, and the increase in sales volume and price has promoted the profit margin of enterprises.
Benefiting from the reduction of cost pressure and the improvement of real estate completion, the fundamentals of consumer building materials sector further improved in the third quarter.
In the third quarter, cement prices showed a slight upward trend. At present, the national cement price index has returned to the level close to the same period last year. Due to factors such as the rainy season interfering with construction, it is expected that the profit growth rate in the third quarter will slow down compared with that in the second quarter, that is, the profit growth rate in the cement industry in the third quarter will slow down to single-digit growth.
Medical biology: medical instruments, chemicals and biological products.
Affected by the epidemic situation in COVID-19, the demand for medical and protective products increased sharply, especially in the third quarter, when the overseas epidemic situation was not effectively controlled, some companies that could produce medical and protective products (mainly medical devices and chemicals) had sufficient orders at home and abroad, and the sales volume and profit margin of the company's products maintained rapid growth. If effective progress is made in vaccine research and development, it may be difficult for enterprises that rely on the production of medical supplies to maintain a high profit growth rate.
In the third quarter, the profit growth rate of the biological products sector remained high. Since the beginning of this year, the number of vaccines listed in pneumonia vaccine and rabies vaccine has increased rapidly, and the income of the corresponding vaccine listed companies has been strongly guaranteed.