The U.S.-China trade sparring continues.
At the China Development Forum held on March 24, the trade war between China and the United States and the whole world has attracted a lot of attention.
Since 2018, China-US economic and trade relations have been characterized by "black clouds pressing down on the city". From imposing restrictions on imports of photovoltaic products and large washing machines, to levying taxes on imports of steel and aluminum products, to announcing the results of the 301 investigation and announcing high tariffs on imports of about 60 billion U.S. dollars from China, the U.S. trade protectionist measures against China have become more and more intense.
What exactly does the US want?
To date, the United States has more than 120 times raised the 301 investigation "big stick". One of the most well-known is the use of the 301 investigation to force Japan to make substantial concessions on the issue of auto trade. Has played a small role in this matter, it is today's U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer.
Scholars have analyzed that the United States now moves with the same year, are to 301 investigation as a means of deterrence and intimidation, as a means of pressure on other countries to force each other to make concessions.
At the High-Level Forum on Development, the U.S. move was "disliked" by the participants.
Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, said U.S. policy was "dictated by the erratic ideas" of current President Donald Trump, a worrying policy despite the fact that there are a number of advisers aiding the president. "The United States has kind of lost its way."
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary David Summers also sputtered that the logic of the current U.S. administration's policies is "hard to understand." What makes great power relations great, he said, is respecting each other's dignity and traditions and cooperating on ****same concerns. China and the United States are fully capable of working together to build a better world, but "it's unlikely to **** win a trade war if it's an eye-for-an-eye fight."
"I don't believe a trade war will solve the problem, it's useless to fight a trade war," said BlackRock Group CEO Lawrence K. Fink. Fink called on Trump to "look at the financial markets and listen to the markets": both China and the United States have benefited from globalization, and more importantly the world needs a stronger China and the United States, and does not want to see a trade war break out between the top two economies.
What can China do?
From official statements, China is ready for a trade war. Cui Tiankai, China's ambassador to the United States, said China does not want to fight a trade war with any party and is still trying to avoid one. But if someone insists on fighting, we will firmly counterattack. China will not succumb to any threats, coercion and intimidation, we are considering all options and will take all necessary measures to safeguard China's legitimate rights and interests.
Chen Deli, director of the Department of Treaty and Law of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said in an interview recently that China is fully prepared to firmly defend its legitimate interests, and these response measures will be "comprehensive". China will pay close attention to the progress of the U.S. 301 investigation of China, "once the interests of the Chinese side is damaged will be resolute".
While actively defending its rights and preparing for war, China will also continue to expand opening up at its own pace and pace, and push forward the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment.
In the 2018 government work report, China has made clear its intention to build an international first-class business environment, fully liberalize the general manufacturing sector, expand opening to the outside world in areas such as telecom, healthcare, education, pension, and new energy vehicles, and pledged to strengthen intellectual property protection.
Analysts say China has shown a strong determination to expand opening up, which will bring more development opportunities to the world.
Lou Jiwei, former minister of China's Ministry of Finance, said one of the successful experiences of China's reform and opening up is its openness to fully accept international rules and embrace globalization, with the pace of opening up gradually accelerating. Today, "China's direction is clear: national treatment plus a negative list, following that direction."
In the view of overseas scholars, China should also try to clarify outside misunderstandings.
Steven Roach said Trump claimed that the U.S. trade deficit with China was as much as 500 billion U.S. dollars, but the real figure is 375 billion U.S. dollars, and this is calculated based on the value added in China, and the actual situation is 40 percent lower than this, may only be 250 billion. "This is a big problem that China has not done a very good job of explaining to the world. China should explain the facts, and the role China plays in global trade and value chains better to the world."
Where is the US-China trade war headed?
In fact, this is not the first time that the United States has conducted a 301 investigation against China. Public information shows that in 1991 and 1994, the U.S. on China's intellectual property rights had two special 301 investigations, which were eventually resolved by agreement.
In addition, in 1991, the United States launched a 301 investigation into China's market access barriers, a year after the two sides reached an understanding. 2010, the United States launched an investigation into China's clean energy policy, and China's subsidies to the manufacture of wind power equipment enterprises to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism to request consultations. Following the consultations, China removed the subsidies.
So, what about this time? Will it be war or peace?
"I don't know the answer," said Pascal Lamy, former WTO director general, of whether the series of tariffs the U.S. has put in place right now will make everyone renegotiate or destroy the entire trading system, "both interpretations so far have merit."
He noted that the United States, India and other economies do have "different views" on the current trading system, but "it would be a very big risk if, because of these grievances, the whole trading system is destroyed or no longer stable." There is a need for improvements in the multilateral trading system, including further opening of markets, better implementation of disciplines on investment, subsidies and so on, "but all of these must be achieved through negotiations."
Of course, ending up in negotiation and consultation is a happy outcome for all. After all, the world's top two economies to start a trade war, not only the impact of the economy of China and the United States, the world can not afford.
In the words of Summers, the United States will be China as an enemy is not correct, the fate of the U.S. economy depends largely on external factors, it is impossible to do it alone. "A trade war, like a nuclear war, has no winners."
It is worth noting that on the morning of March 24, Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the ****, Vice Premier of the State Council, Director of the China Finance Office, and the leader of the Chinese side of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, was invited to have a phone call with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, saying that the Chinese side is ready and has the strength to defend its national interests, and that it is hoped that the two sides will maintain rationality **** the same efforts to safeguard the overall stability of China-US economic and trade relations. The two sides agreed to continue to maintain communication in this regard.