The industrial chain in Ferrous lithium phosphate involves upstream raw materials such as phosphoric acid, ferric phosphate and lithium carbonate, midstream cathode materials such as Ferrous lithium phosphate, downstream lithium iron phosphate batteries and whole vehicles, and the back-end market also includes dismantling, step utilization and wet recycling of waste lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In 219, the sales volume of new energy vehicles decreased negatively due to the sharp decline in subsidies. It is predicted that the subsidies for new energy vehicles in China will no longer decline in 22, but the pressure of reducing the cost of bicycles still exists. Lithium iron phosphate battery has a greater advantage than Sanyuan in terms of cost and has once again entered the market. This paper mainly expounds the recovery logic of lithium iron battery in the power field, emphasizing the application advantages of lithium iron battery in the field of low-end passenger cars and the active exploration of some enterprises in this regard.
the performance of the battery is determined by the material performance level. As a kind of lithium battery, lithium iron phosphate battery (LFP battery) has obvious advantages and disadvantages: low cost, high cycle times, poor low-temperature performance and low energy density. The special index data determines that the share of LFP battery in new energy vehicles is gradually eroded by ternary batteries with higher power density and energy density. At present, the installed capacity is mainly concentrated in passenger cars and special vehicles, and the installed capacity share in passenger cars is low. However, with the drastic change of subsidy policy, the direction of pursuing high energy density of ternary batteries has encountered cost resistance. Under the pressure of cost reduction, finding other batteries to replace ternary batteries is the idea that car companies have always adhered to. LFP battery, which is 1%-15% cheaper than ternary battery in price, has become one of the schemes that car companies consider in low-end passenger cars.
The cost of LFP battery is 1%-15% lower than that of ternary battery, and the difference is mainly reflected in the material system of the two batteries. In the ternary battery system, the battery accounts for 4% of the whole vehicle cost, and the ternary cathode material accounts for about 3% of the battery cost. The content of cobalt, nickel and manganese in ternary cathode materials is high, although the price of cobalt has dropped from the highest point of 68, yuan/ton to 28, yuan/ton, plus nickel manganese salt, lithium carbonate/lithium hydroxide materials and processing costs, the price of ternary materials ranges from 12, yuan/ton to 18, yuan/ton. The LFP cathode is mainly composed of iron phosphate and lithium carbonate. At the lower price of the two, the final price of the LFP cathode is only 41,-45, yuan/ton. In addition, LFP battery mainly uses dry separator, and its price is lower than that of wet separator for ternary battery. Finally, it is reflected in the battery price. The cost of LFP battery can be .55 yuan /Wh, while the cost of ternary battery is about .65 yuan /Wh. The price difference between them will exist for a long time because of the price difference of cathode materials. Overlapping the pack link, the absolute value of the price difference between the two is about .15 yuan.
In 219, subsidies for new energy vehicles fell sharply, and local subsidies were cancelled, resulting in a 7% drop in average bicycle subsidies. In absolute terms, the amount of subsidies for mini-cars and small cars has plummeted from 4, to 5, yuan to less than 18, yuan, which will reduce the cost of low-end passenger cars in the next 2-3 years.
Ferrous lithium phosphate has great advantages over ternary batteries in cost. From cathode materials, to battery system, to the whole vehicle, and even the whole use process. The cost reduction path comes from the continuous decline in the price of materials and the improvement of the technological level of iron-lithium batteries. Take a small car with 4 kWh of electricity as an example. The ternary battery costs about 4, yuan and has a battery life of 35 kilometers. The price of lithium iron phosphate battery is 32, yuan and the battery life is 3 kilometers. Sacrificing the theoretical cruising range of 5 kilometers (the actual cruising range is reduced by 2-3 kilometers) can bring about 8, yuan of cost reduction space to car companies.
On the user side, the average annual use cost of the lithium-iron model is about 43 yuan lower than that of the ternary model in the whole life cycle. Therefore, we believe that the low-end models will switch from ternary to lithium iron, which is the goal orientation of both car companies and consumers.
From the new car recommendation catalogue of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 22, the matching proportion of lithium iron batteries in passenger cars will obviously rise. The latest recommendation catalogue shows that the matching proportion of lithium iron batteries in passenger cars has exceeded 2%. Among them, the modified models of SAIC Roewe ei6 plug-in, Roewe eRX5 plug-in and MG MG6 plug-in are also determined to be replaced with lithium iron phosphate batteries. This is a brand-new change in car companies' understanding of iron-lithium batteries. Compared with ternary batteries, iron-lithium batteries save costs and have little impact on performance. The plug-in hybrid car itself has a charge of about 15 degrees, and the battery weighs 12 kilograms. It is exchanged for lithium iron from ternary. Under the same capacity, the battery gains only 1 kilograms, and the cruising range affects about 5 kilometers, but the cost decreases by 3, yuan. We expect that this trend will continue to strengthen in 22, and the matching of iron and lithium in passenger cars is expected to speed up.
In the great process of the development of China's automobile industry, independent automobile enterprises have always been in a passive situation, but some models have still become the magic cars in the mouth of ordinary people. The word "magic cars" is used because they stand out from the fierce competition in the automobile market and create a sales myth and high-quality reputation. The China-made magic car headed by Wuling Hongguang has left a deep impression on consumers because of its high quality, low price, unbreakable driving and low cost, and Wuling Hongguang is also known as the "magic car in autumn".
Wuling Hongguang, an A-class MPV model owned by SAIC-GM-Wuling, was launched in 21 and positioned as a minivan. Wuling Hongguang's perfect balance between power and economy, as well as its performance in handling and safety, have subverted people's traditional impression of commercial vehicles. Since its listing, the car has occupied the top spot in the MPV market segment for seven consecutive years, with a monthly sales of 82,5 vehicles at its peak. In 219, Wuling Hongguang sold a total of 375, vehicles, ranking fourth in domestic automobile sales and second in independent models, second only to Haval H6. By the end of 219, the cumulative sales volume of Wuling Hongguang series vehicles was as high as 4.5 million. Strong user accumulation, excellent word-of-mouth feedback and high cost performance are important factors for the continued best-selling of Wuling Hongguang series vehicles.
in addition, wuling glory, another special purpose vehicle owned by SAIC-GM-Wuling, also achieved a sales volume of 16, vehicles in 219, ranking seventh in the sales list of independent vehicles in 19 years. Daweike wuling glory launched its first model in 28, aiming at minivan, which can be used for both business and goods.
in 212, wuling glory was upgraded in an all-round way, in which the length of the whole vehicle was extended to 449mm, the width and height were 1615mm and 19mm, respectively, and the original 7 seats were upgraded to 9 seats, which provided more space. After three generations of changes, wuling glory has now extended several versions, such as V, S, extended version, single and double row and small card.
independent car companies are the main force of electrification, but the electrification rate of top1 independent models sold in 219 is relatively low, and only three models have corresponding electric vehicles for sale. Autonomous car companies have not effectively used the high sales volume and high word-of-mouth effect of hot-selling models to explore the electric market. On the one hand, the pure telephone based on the oil car platform will have certain disadvantages in battery life; On the other hand, the competition between gasoline and electric vehicles on the same stage is also one of the considerations for car companies. We believe that car companies are more willing to launch new cars based on pure electric platforms to hit the market, but the new platform does not mean new brands, and the penetration effect of hot-selling brands in the consumer market is obviously better than that of new brands.
in the second half of 219, SAIC-GM-Wuling started the electrification process of related popular models, with Wuling Hongguang and Rongguang as the leading cars, both of which entered the 326th batch of new car publicity list issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Both of them will launch high and low endurance versions of pure electric vehicles, which will be subdivided into multi-function version and transport version. From the point of battery matching, Wuling Hongguang high endurance version is equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, and the battery parameter is (335V/125Ah), which is equivalent to 41.88KWh. The low battery life version is equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery by Guoxuan Hi-Tech. The parameter is (323V/15Ah), which is equivalent to 33.92KWh of electricity. Wuling glory is exclusively equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery by Penghui Energy. The battery parameter of the high battery life version is (368V/113Ah), which is equivalent to 41.58 kWh, while that of the low battery life version is (314V/113Ah), which is equivalent to 35.48 kWh.
following the announcement of the new car, two magic cars quickly entered the recommended catalogue of the Ministry of industry and information technology. According to the 11th batch of recommended catalogues in 219, the wuling glory model has a high endurance version of 31 kilometers and an energy density of 131 Wh/kg; The low endurance version is 26 kilometers and the energy density is 126Wh/kg. The wuling glory model has a high battery life version of 41.6 kWh, with a battery life of 3 kilometers and an energy density of 125 Wh/kg; The low battery life version is 35.4 kWh, with a battery life of 252 kilometers and an energy density of 125Wh/kg. This plug-in brand Guangxi Automobile's Wuling van has a cruising range of 27 kilometers, which is supported by lithium iron phosphate battery provided by Penghui Energy.
SAIC-GM-Wuling launched three brands and accumulated 1 models of pure electric vehicles on the basis of Wuling Hongguang and Rongguang fuel vehicles. In addition, in the field of passenger cars, SAIC-GM-Wuling will soon launch low-end passenger cars such as E3/E3L, which is expected to open up the penetration space of small cars. We assume that the sales penetration rate of Wuling Hongguang and Rongguang models is 2%, and the E1/2 increment and E3 new models are superimposed. The transformation of Shangtongwu electric vehicle is expected to drive the increment of iron-lithium battery to exceed 5GWh.
in the post-subsidy era, the acceptance of iron-lithium batteries by car companies has been greatly improved. Iron-lithium batteries are not only widely used in low-end passenger cars, but also appear in high-end models. In the mid-to-high-end field, BYD took the lead in launching the latest blade battery, adopting the Ferrous lithium phosphate route, with the highest system energy density of 16Wh/kg. The modified battery was applied to its high-end model Hanshang, with the actual energy density of 14Wh/kg and the maximum battery life of 65 kilometers, which is the biggest breakthrough in the battery life of iron-lithium models.
in a nutshell, the so-called "blade battery" is a large battery with a length of more than .6m developed by BYD. It is a long battery solution, which is arranged together in an array and inserted into the battery pack like a "blade". Lengthening the battery cell involves improving the integration efficiency of the battery pack. The improvement is mainly reflected in the space utilization rate of the power battery pack, and the volume energy density can be increased by 5%; The weight and energy density have also improved. On the other hand, the two sides of the long battery cell are directly connected with the shell, which can ensure that the battery cell has a large enough heat dissipation area and can conduct the internal heat to the outside, thus matching a high energy density. Reflected in the cost, the cost of the blade battery is about 1% lower than that of the traditional structure battery, which can effectively save the battery cost.
ternary battery began to squeeze the share of lithium iron battery in 216. In the field of passenger cars, ternary battery quickly replaced lithium iron, and the installed share gradually increased. In the field of special vehicles, the installed capacity of ternary batteries has also increased greatly, while in the field of buses, ternary batteries have not been released due to policy reasons. In the whole year of 219, the installed capacity of power batteries in China reached 62GWh, the installed capacity of passenger cars was 42GWh, the installed capacity of passenger cars was 14.55GWh, and the installed capacity of special vehicles was 5.4GWh Passenger cars have become the main areas to drive battery installation. Therefore, the share of Sanyuan has rapidly increased in the total installed capacity, reaching 4GWh, with an installed capacity of 65%, an increase of 1GWh； compared with 18 years; However, the installed capacity of iron-lithium battery is only 2GWh, and the installed capacity has been growing bottleneck for three consecutive years, and the installed share has dropped to 32%.
Based on the change from subsidy to cost orientation, we are firmly optimistic about the continuous improvement of the supporting facilities of iron and lithium in the passenger car field. The recovery of iron and lithium in the application of new energy vehicles is a long-term process, and its share in power installed capacity will maintain a stable proportion. From the perspective of a single model, the production and sales scale of the electric version of wuling glory/Hongguang Shenche is expected to reach 1, vehicles, and the contribution installed capacity will reach 4GWh；; In the long run, we expect that 5% of A vehicles, 3% of A vehicles, 1% of A-class vehicles and 3% of plug-in vehicles in China are expected to be equipped with LFP batteries. Based on the sales forecast data of various vehicles in 22, the installed capacity of LFP batteries will reach 1 kWh, the installed capacity of iron and lithium will reach 3.37GWh, and it will reach 36GWh and 42.6GWh in 221-222 respectively. With the low-end models of global mainstream car companies also turning to LFP batteries, we believe that in the long run, the incremental space of LFP batteries in the field of new energy vehicles is more considerable.
Ferrous lithium phosphate's industrial chain involves the upstream raw materials phosphoric acid, ferric phosphate and lithium carbonate, the midstream cathode material Ferrous lithium phosphate, the downstream Ferrous lithium phosphate cell and the whole vehicle, and the back-end market also includes the dismantling, step utilization and wet recycling of waste lithium iron phosphate batteries. From the perspective of industrial concentration and enterprise purity, the business of cathode and battery factory is relatively pure and is the first choice for investment.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited: the share of lithium iron battery is the first, and the passenger car with power
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is the absolute leader in the battery link, and Sanyuan and lithium iron battery are in parallel. Of the 32GWh installed capacity in 219, 21GWh is ternary and 11GWh is lithium iron. Lithium iron batteries are mainly used for buses. Since the second half of 219, the company has started to provide lithium iron batteries for passenger cars. This time, providing lithium iron batteries to Tesla is expected to further establish the company's industry position in the field of lithium iron segmentation. In terms of ternary batteries, the company has established cooperative relations with many mainstream car companies at home and abroad, and set up battery factories in Europe. In the future, the company is expected to benefit from the explosion of electric vehicles in Europe to further consolidate its market share, and the high-growth logic is expected to continue to be honored.
penghui energy: a low-cost player focusing on LFP power battery
the company is a small and beautiful comprehensive supplier of all-round lithium batteries, which is involved in the fields of consumption, power (including light power), energy storage and power tools. In terms of power battery, the company has been deeply bound to SAIC-GM-Wuling for 19 years, providing 6% of battery support for Baojun E1/2 series, and has won the exclusive support for Shangtongwu wuling glory pure electric vehicle. In 219, the installed capacity of power batteries was .7GWh, ranking the top 1 in China. In the power battery business, the company has shifted its focus to lithium iron batteries, and at the same time, it has supplied standby power for tower base stations in the energy storage sector, and actively expanded the European energy storage market. In the future, the company will benefit from the explosion of battery demand such as power, 3C digital and energy storage, with strong profit elasticity.
german nano: the market share of LFP cathode materials is the first, and the low-cost scheme cannot be copied.