In 2004, in the face of some unhealthy and unstable factors in the operation of the national economy, the Party Central Committee and the State Council timely introduced a series of macro-control measures, effectively avoiding local problems from evolving into global problems and avoiding economic ups and downs, the annual GDP growth rate of 9.5%, realizing a sustained macroeconomic Rapid and stable macroeconomic growth.
In the first half of 2005, China's economy continued to develop in a good direction, and macroeconomic regulation and control achieved obvious results: on the one hand, the excessively rapid fixed-asset investment in certain areas has been brought under control, and the weak agricultural production, especially food production, has been developed more rapidly, and the momentum of inflation has been curbed; on the other hand, while the unhealthy and unstable factors of the economic operation have been curbed, the The national economy has continued to maintain a good momentum of faster growth and greater vitality; investment, consumption and net exports have remained relatively strong, and the intrinsic impetus for economic growth has remained strong. On the whole, various economic indicators in the first half of 2005 basically operated within a reasonable range. GDP growth in the first quarter was 9.4%; it is expected that GDP growth in the second quarter will not be less than 9%. It can be considered that the current economic operation has turned into a stable growth stage.
Specifically, the effect of macro-control is mainly manifested in the following aspects.
1. The growth rate of investment has dropped significantly compared with the same period of the previous year, and the effect of macro-control is obvious. Statistics show that from January to May 2005, urban fixed asset investment of 197.19 billion yuan, an increase of 26.4% over the same period last year, down 8.4 percentage points. From the perspective of the three industries, the secondary industry grew by 32.1% year-on-year, a drop of 15.7 percentage points from the same period of the previous year; the primary industry and the tertiary industry grew by 27.5% and 22.6% year-on-year, respectively, an increase of 15.8 and 5.1 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. The decline in investment growth and changes in the structure of investment growth highlight the positive effects of macro-control.
2. Consumption growth is stable, and residents' income keeps growing. In the first four months of this year, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 197.75 billion yuan, an increase of 13.3%, accelerated by 2 percentage points compared with the same period of the previous year. in May, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 489.9 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8% compared with the same month of the previous year. from January to May, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods rose year-on-year, and dropped slightly compared with the previous year. In the first quarter of this year, the per capita disposable income of urban households was RMB 2,938, an increase of 11.3% over the same period of the previous year; after deducting the factor of price increases, the actual increase was 8.6%. Farmers' per capita cash income of 967 yuan, after deducting the impact of price factors, an increase of 11.9% in real terms, the growth rate than the same period last year, an increase of 2.7 percentage points. The relatively large increase in residents' income ensured a steady growth in consumer demand and strengthened the impetus for endogenous growth of the economy.
3. The gap between CPI and PPI growth has gradually narrowed, and upward pressure on prices has slowed. In May this year, the total level of consumer prices (CPI) rose 1.8% over the same month last year, with urban areas up 1.4% and rural areas up 2.4%. Compared with April, the total consumer price level decreased by 0.2%. cumulatively, from January to May, the total consumer price level rose by 2.4% compared with the same period of the previous year. By category, food prices rose 2.8% in May compared with the same month of the previous year, non-food prices rose 1.2%, consumer goods prices rose 1.2%, and prices of services rose 3.6%; the consumer price index rose at a reasonable rate, and the target of controlling CPI at 4% for the whole year can be realized.From January to May, the price index of production materials (PPI) rose 8.2% compared with the same month of the previous year, 7.5%, 5.1%, 5.7%, 5.7%, falling back more significantly. At present, the phenomenon of upstream and downstream price divergence has eased, which is more favorable for economic restructuring. However, the inflationary pressures that may be formed by cost-push, rising service prices, and rising international crude oil prices are still not to be taken lightly.
4. Fiscal and monetary credit remain stable. From January to May this year, the national financial income of 13541 billion yuan, an increase of 156.9 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 13.1%; the national financial expenditure of 958.5 billion yuan, an increase of 126.3 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 15.2%; the national financial income and expenditure, income is greater than expenditure of 395.6 billion yuan. While maintaining a good momentum in increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, various financial and tax reforms have been actively promoted, financial support for the "three rural areas" has continued to increase, policies and measures to alleviate the financial difficulties of counties and townships have been actively implemented, and key expenditure items such as employment and social security, education and health have been further safeguarded. The growth of monetary volume remained stable; at the end of May, the balance of broad money supply M2 was 26.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.6% year-on-year, and continued to remain within the range of 13% to 15%, which was basically in line with the economic growth. Deposits and loans of financial institutions grew steadily, with savings deposits increasing by 970.5 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 145.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and loans increasing by 737.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 97.6 billion yuan, with a widening of the deposit gap.
5. Total foreign trade continues to expand. From January to May this year, the total import and export amounted to 522.8 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. In part of the international price of commodities and the low level of the dollar and other factors, strong export growth, exports of 276.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 33.2%; by the impact of crude oil, steel, automobiles and other products, imports of imports slowed down, imports of 246.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 13.7%. Import and export offset, a surplus of 30 billion U.S. dollars. And the same period last year for the trade deficit of 9.2 billion U.S. dollars.
6. Some structural problems in economic operation have improved. Agricultural production is in good condition, and agricultural production and farmers' income continue to increase. in 2005, the area under grain cultivation nationwide is estimated to be 1.558 billion mu, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year. Among them, the area planted with summer grain was 395 million mu, an increase of 4.8%, reversing the situation of seven consecutive years of decline. The structure of industry investment has seen new changes. Since the beginning of this year, investment in bottleneck industries such as coal, electricity, oil and transportation has continued to strengthen. Statistics show that in the first five months of this year, coal mining and washing industry investment of 19.3 billion yuan, an increase of 82.8%; oil and gas mining investment of 40.4 billion yuan, an increase of 31.5%; oil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry investment of 19.8 billion yuan, an increase of 20.2%. And some overheated industry investment continues to be controlled.
Two, the current economic operation of the problems needing attention
Economic growth after the transition to a period of stability, the main problem faced is the increase in uncertainty about the direction of change in the relationship between economic aggregates. Macro-control should prevent both a rebound and the problem of excessive fall.
1. Prevent a rebound. First, the investment rate and investment growth rate is still high. from January to May, the investment growth rate reached 26.4%. Although compared to the same period last year, 34.8% has a large drop, but this is built on the basis of the previous year's high-speed growth, the scale of investment is still very substantial. From this year's published data, the social investment in fixed assets growth rate in addition to a slight decline in January to March, basically maintained a higher trend month by month, there have been signs of rebound.
Second, the upper reaches of the industry's larger profit margins, a certain attraction to investment. January to May this year, the country's industrial enterprises above designated size realized profits of 496.8 billion yuan, an increase of 15.8% year-on-year growth than the same period last year fell 27.9 percentage points. But the upstream industry profit space is still large, there is a certain attraction to investment. 1 ~ May, coal, oil, ferrous metal mines, non-ferrous metal mines, non-metallic mines, such as mining profits are still a large year-on-year growth, respectively, reached 88%, 71.8%, 35.6%, 149.7%, 51.6%. Among them, the profit of the oil mining industry rose month by month, from a growth of 62.7% in the first quarter, to 69.8% in January to April, and then 71.8% in January to May. Rising prices of upstream products were the main reason for the expansion of its profits.
Thirdly, the higher savings rate and gradually increasing bank deposit differentials provided the financial conditions for the investment rebound. On the financial side, although the fiscal policy has shifted from expansion to stabilization, it is still characterized by a certain degree of expansion. 2005 will continue to issue a considerable amount of long-term construction bonds, and the fiscal budget is still arranged for a deficit of 300 billion yuan, so the direction of the use of fiscal funds needs to be strictly controlled. On the financial side, in recent years, the RMB deposit gap of financial institutions has been on an upward trend, and the growth rate of the gap has increased markedly since February this year, with an increasing deviation from the long-term trend line relative to that since January 1997. in May, the gap had exceeded 7.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 40% over the same period of the previous year, and 21% over the end of the previous year, and 5.8% over the month of the previous year. The huge deposit gap in the commercial banking system and the continuously rising ratio of the deposit gap to the loan balance reflect the fact that a large amount of funds in China's commercial banking system have not entered the real economy through the commercial banking system, and the commercial banks need to find a way out for the excessive surplus funds. In addition, a large amount of private capital continues to accumulate, the growing power, but also for the investment rebound to create the conditions.
Fourth, the enthusiasm of local governments to develop the economy is still very high, with the intrinsic power of investment rebound. Although the increase in fixed asset investment has fallen, but many places to increase investment, the impulse of the project is still strong. This year's agricultural land to construction land plan for 4 million mu, around the amount of land application is 3 times the plan, the pressure of investment expansion is still very large. In real estate development investment, the local government's interest drive is also one of the factors that may rebound.
2. Prevent an excessive fallback. At present, the risk of excessive fallback, mainly CPI changes below the expected level, corporate profit growth rate fell, losses expanded. But the price level of the means of production is still high, the possibility of deflation is unlikely.
First, from the industry, the downstream industry loss expansion. January to May this year, the country's industrial enterprises above designated size realized a decline in profit growth, which on the one hand is the previous stage of blind expansion of some industries; on the other hand, energy and raw material prices continue to rise the cost pressure brought about by the rapid rise. It is worth warning that the loss of industrial loss-making enterprises above designated size has a tendency to increase month by month: the loss of 91.7 billion yuan from January to May, an increase of 56.1% year-on-year, the growth rate of 10 percentage points higher than from January to April, higher than the first quarter of nearly 20 percentage points. At the same time, industrial enterprises finished goods funds and accounts receivable have been running at a high level. at the end of May, industrial enterprises above designated size, finished goods funds of 1124.1 billion yuan, up 19.4% year-on-year; net accounts receivable of 235.51 billion yuan, up 15.5% year-on-year. The growth rate is almost unchanged from the previous months.
From January to May, profits in the petroleum processing and coking line of industries fell sharply and posted an industry-wide loss, with a net loss of 1.03 billion yuan. At the same time, chemical fiber, transportation equipment manufacturing, building materials, electric power, electronic communications and other industries have also seen a decline in profits or losses. Since the situation of poor price transmission between upstream and downstream products is difficult to fundamentally change in the foreseeable period, downstream enterprises have borne a great deal of pressure. If this pattern continues for a long time, it will be unfavorable to the economic operation.
Second, from the industrial side, the service sector lacks vigor. While industrial growth has clearly exceeded the long-term average, the service sector is still lagging behind. In the first quarter of this year, the value-added of the service sector grew by 7.6 percent, which is not only lower than the long-term average of 10 percent, but also lower than the lowest period since the reform and opening up of the 1998-2002 average growth level of 8.2 percent.
Thirdly, from the perspective of foreign trade, the increasing trade friction has a certain negative impact on exports. Since the beginning of this year, trade friction has gradually heated up, and anti-dumping cases have increased rapidly. China has been the country that has encountered the most anti-dumping measures from abroad for nine consecutive years, and by the end of 2004, it had been subject to more than 600 anti-dumping prosecutions of various kinds. At the same time, 25 of our export products have been subject to anti-dumping measures, making us the country with the largest number of anti-dumping measures. Trade friction has begun to form a substantial constraint on China's export expansion.
Fourth, the possible negative impact of RMB exchange rate changes. At present, the yuan is facing increasing appreciation pressure, the upward adjustment of the yuan exchange rate may lead to a rather complex effect. In terms of its negative impact alone, it may lead to a reduction in exports and increased pressure on employment, and also create downward pressure on the macro-economy.
Three, policy orientation
Economic growth into a period of stabilization, to maintain the supply and demand relationship of the general balance, to maintain the sustainability of macroeconomic control policies, stability, and strive to lengthen the new round of economic growth in the stabilization period, is the current macroeconomic control of the important goal. At the same time, the current macroeconomic situation should be seized at a favorable time, and strive to promote the reform of some key areas and key links.
1. Implementing the various macroeconomic control measures that have been put in place to keep the main national economic indicators within a reasonable range for as long as possible. At present, there is no need to introduce new measures to curb economic overheating, nor should we rush to introduce major measures to stimulate the economy. It is necessary to grasp the direction and strength of macro-control and to implement the macro-control measures that have been put in place, so that the main national economic indicators will remain within a reasonable range for as long as possible. The implementation of prudent fiscal and monetary policies should adhere to the principles of differentiated treatment and keeping pressure. In accordance with the requirements of promoting structural adjustment and realizing the "five integrations", the budgetary funds and long-term construction bonds should be arranged to strengthen the weak links in economic and social development.
After economic growth turns into a period of stabilization, in response to the problem of increasing uncertainty about the direction of change in the relationship between economic aggregates, the economic situation should be closely tracked, and close attention should be paid to the problems that may arise, especially the first signs of a rebound or an excessive fall in the two aspects of the economy, so that the first signs of tendency can be detected in a timely manner, and targeted fine-tuning measures can be taken to prevent any major imbalance in the economic aggregates.
2. Pay more attention to the role of the market, and better combine the market's regulating role with timely and moderate macro-control. As China's socialist market economic system is still in the process of further improvement, therefore, in the macro-control inevitably need to combine the use of market and administrative means. In the current round of macro-control, administrative control measures have played a positive role. But if too much reliance on administrative means, it will cause market distortion. In the current macro-control has achieved obvious results, should pay more attention to the use of economic and legal means, reduce administrative means, pay attention to better play the role of market regulation.
3. Seize the current macroeconomic stabilization period of favorable timing, and strive to promote the reform of some key areas and key links. To seize the current macroeconomic stabilization period of favorable timing, efforts to promote the reform of key areas, in order to maintain stable and sustained rapid economic development to lay a good institutional foundation, enhance the ability of economic growth and stability of economic operations. Reform is not in place, the system is not perfect, the mechanism is not sound, is China's economic and social development of many contradictions and problems arising from the important root causes; such as not to speed up the institutional reform and system innovation, to eliminate the institutional, institutional shortcomings, the economic operation of unstable, unhealthy factors, "the root cause of the disease" will be there, the recurrence of old illnesses is possible. In this sense, in order to consolidate and develop the achievements of macroeconomic control, it is necessary to address both the symptoms and the root causes, pay more attention to treating the root causes, and make greater efforts to eliminate the soil that breeds instability and unhealthy factors. At present, efforts should be made to achieve substantial breakthroughs in some key areas and key links. For example, deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises and enhancing the control, influence and driving force of the state-owned economy. Implement the State Council's Opinions on Encouraging, Supporting and Guiding the Development of the Individual, Private and Other Non-Publicly Owned Economies to promote the development of the non-publicly owned economy. Steadily push forward the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, and improve the public *** financial system. Actively promote the reform of the investment system and establish the main position of enterprises in investment activities.
4. Practical measures are being taken to stimulate consumer demand, and caution is needed in adjusting policies that have a boosting effect on final consumption. At present, economic growth is overly dependent on investment-driven situation needs to be changed urgently, and efforts to expand consumer demand is a long-term task of macro-control. In addition to efforts to increase the income level of the population, the creation of an environment conducive to increasing the consumption of the population is also an important aspect of expanding consumer demand. At present, in the process of implementing the structural macro-control policy of "keeping pressure on", when it comes to the final consumer demand to promote the role of the policy to be adjusted, we need to be cautious and prudent, in order to prevent the long-term adverse impact on consumer demand.
5. On the premise of adhering to a prudent monetary policy, we will maintain moderate growth in the money supply and pay attention to giving full play to the effectiveness of monetary policy. From January to May this year, the year-on-year growth of money supply and loan size in each month declined to varying degrees. With the fiscal policy shifted from active to prudent, it should be based on the change of the actual situation, on the premise of adhering to the prudent monetary policy, pay attention to maintain the moderate growth of money supply, in order to meet the demand for money for economic growth, and give full play to the macro-control role of the monetary policy