"In the second quarter, the weight of active equity funds holding positions in the biomedical sector has been very low, and I did not expect the third quarter to further reduce." A pharmaceutical investor helplessly told the first financial reporter.
As of the end of the second quarter, public equity holdings of pharmaceutical and biological positions relative to the CSI 300 overweight has been reduced to 1.5 percentage points, the lowest level since the third quarter of 2009.
Unexpectedly, this figure was further reduced to 1.24% in the third quarter. According to a number of industry insiders, the tumbling stock price caused by the rumors of collection is undoubtedly an important reason for the lack of confidence in the sector by public funds.
But with the bottoming out of biomedicine and the improvement of fundamentals, some pharmaceutical researchers and pharmaceutical fund managers seem to have regained their confidence: "The proportion of public equity positions in biomedicine in the fourth quarter may have increased."
Collective procurement rumors triggered the stock price diving
Huaxi Securities data show that, after peeling off the impact of the industry up and down, it can be clearly seen that the third quarter active equity funds in the defense industry, real estate, transportation and computers and other industries on the net increase in holdings of the most obvious, the increase in holdings of 0.79%, 0.59%, respectively, 0.56% and 0.40%, while in the pharmaceutical and biological, non-bank financial, power equipment and food and beverage industries on the most reduced holdings, reduced holdings of 0.78%, 0.77%, 0.49% and 0.48%, respectively.
China Post Securities data show that active equity funds in the third quarter of 2022 position in pharmaceutical and biological proportion of 8.75%, down 1.81 half a point from the previous year. Excluding pharma funds, the position was 4.04%, down 1.80 percentage points from a year earlier.
At the end of September 2022, pharmaceutical stocks accounted for 7.93% of the total market capitalization of A-shares. The pharmaceutical sector is still overweight (1.24%, down 0.26 percentage points compared to the second quarter), supported by sector funds, but has been significantly underweight after deducting pharmaceutical funds.
"In the past, public funds for biomedicine configuration ratio are more than 20%, these two years public funds for biomedicine plate is not cold, the new issue of the fund tends to look at some of the wind type of industry, such as new energy." Zuo Jianming, general manager of Xiaoyu assets, told the first financial reporter.
Public funds on pharmaceutical stocks allocation hit a new low, behind the continued downturn in pharmaceutical stocks.
Tonglian data show that as of the close of business on Nov. 4, 431 stocks in the CITIC Tier 1 pharmaceutical sector so far this year have fallen by an average of 6.76 percent.
To "medicine thatch" Hengrui Medicine (600276.SH), for example, despite the recent rebound in stock prices, but as of the close of business on November 4, since this year, the cumulative decline in its share price still reached 17.31%, losing the broader market.
On the evening of October 19, Hengrui medicine released the third quarterly report shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved operating income of 20.199 billion yuan, an increase of 4.05%; attributable to shareholders of listed companies, net profit of 4.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.21%; attributable to shareholders of listed companies, deducted non-net profit of 4.149 billion yuan, an increase of 0.19%. In terms of single-quarter data, the company's third-quarter revenue was 6.901 billion yuan, down 14.84% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 1.54 billion yuan, down 3.57% year-on-year; and deducted net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 1.502 billion yuan, down 4.87% year-on-year. The company has had two consecutive quarters of year-on-year net profit decline.
For the reasons for the decline in performance in the third quarter, Hengrui Medicine did not make a detailed explanation in the third-quarter report. The half-year report showed that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of this year was about 2.668 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.21%, a record low increase since 2003. Since 2018, the company has entered the national centralized band purchasing of generic drugs *** There are 28 varieties, 18 varieties were selected, and the average reduction in the selected price was 72.6%, which caused greater pressure on the company's performance.
Another leading pharmaceutical company Changchun High-Tech (000661.SZ), whenever rumors of centralized purchasing appear, the company's share price is going to fall.
For example, in mid-August the market rumors, Zhejiang Province, drugs and medical supplies centralized volume purchasing office announced the "Zhejiang Province, the third batch of public medical institutions centralized volume purchasing documents" (draft). Although the specific procurement varieties have not yet been announced to the public, but there are market rumors that the centralized procurement of chemical drugs and biological drugs in two groups, including biological drugs include human growth hormone (recombinant human growth hormone).
While, as the domestic growth hormone leading enterprises, Changchun High-tech quickly on August 18 in the interactive platform responded that: "At present, the relevant documents for the solicitation of opinions, the company has not received the relevant formal notice; for the growth hormone set of procurement, from the existing Guangdong Union set of procurement, has not been negatively impacted on the company's sales of growth hormone products, at the same time, the company will follow up according to the final policy to further improve the quality of growth hormone. The company will follow up according to the final policy to further enhance the company's products, market coverage."
But August 18 Changchun High-tech shares or sudden dive, the day directly stopped, closing at 202.1 yuan / share. As of the close of trading on November 4, the company's shares closed at 174.69 yuan / share, a cumulative decline of up to 35.44% this year, significantly underperforming the broader market.
Fourth quarter biomedical position or increase
In mid-September, Haitong Securities held the 11th Pharmaceutical CEO Forum, Haitong Pharmaceuticals and Haitong International Pharmaceuticals Group, chief analyst Yu Wenshen, said that the current position of public funds in the pharmaceuticals stocks has been the lowest in history, the institution will increase the position of the pharmaceuticals, mainly depends on two points, one is the policy is warming up, and the other is the policy will be increased. One is whether the policy is warming up, and the second is whether the plate has a new main line.
The National Health Insurance Bureau on June 29, 2022 announced the "negotiated drug renewal rules". According to Haitong Pharmaceuticals Yu Wenxin team analysis, the vast majority of the renewal of the negotiation price cuts between 0 to 15%, is relatively mild. Price reductions for new entrants to the health insurance may be relatively large, and will need to take into account initial pricing and each company's strategy.
Yu Wenxin said: "Looking back to the time when there was no NHI, newly launched drugs may not be able to enter the health insurance for 5 or 8 years. Health insurance negotiations are through the drug price reduction in exchange for the release of volume, which is the reason why companies are willing to drugs into the health insurance. We believe that on the existing basis, there will be clearer rules for price negotiation in the policy in the future. We also believe that the final offer in the health insurance negotiations in November this year will be a price reduction acceptable to the market."
"We don't have to talk about 'collective purchasing', any procurement has to assess the relationship between volume and price." Yu Wenshin said the market growth logic for dental implants lies in the increase in penetration rate. "In 2021 there will be 4 million dental implants in China***. Assuming that each elderly person planted 5 teeth, then a *** is 800,000 elderly people received dental implants. However China may have 300-400 million elderly people in the future. If the price of each dental implant drops from more than 10,000 to 3,000, isn't it possible that the dental implant market has room for 10-fold growth? So the impact of centralized procurement is not as big as the market thinks, the focus is on which companies can find the opportunity in this."
Experiencing a continuous adjustment in stock prices, the A-share pharmaceutical industry sector since October finally ushered in the bottom rebound.
Pharmaceutical index (CN6046.SZ) rose 7.87 percent in October, the first time in three consecutive months after the decline recorded a single-month increase. As of the close of trading on November 4, the index so far in November accumulated gains of 5.49%. The first financial reporter noted that, with the pharmaceutical sector market at the end of the third quarter began to start, since October part of the funds began to flow. Among them, there are the previous main investment in new energy fund managers from the second quarter onwards gradually to the pharmaceutical sector position.
Oriental Wealth Choice data show that Zheng Chengran management of the GDF Xinxiang, Han Guangzhe management of the Golden Eagle national emerging, Yao Zhipeng management of the Harvest environmental low-carbon three funds, for example, the above three funds at the beginning of the pharmaceutical position are less than 1%, but in the first half of the pharmaceutical continued to fall when the choice of the bottom.
The end of the second quarter, Guangfa Xinxiang medicine position reached 20%, the fund in the first quarter of this year, the top ten positions are also mainly in the new energy track, and at the end of the second quarter, its top ten positions in the list of stocks for the first time Tongze medical (600763.SH) and Changchun High-tech (000661.SZ) figure. In addition, the fund also new into the Aier ophthalmology (300015.SZ), Zhifei biological (300122.SZ) and Puli Pharmaceutical (300630.SZ), and significantly increase the position of Iwu biological (300357.SZ), which Aier ophthalmology is ranked as the fund's thirteenth largest position.
At the same time, the Golden Eagle national emerging pharmaceutical position reached 10% at the end of the second quarter, Harvest environmental low-carbon pharmaceutical position also reached 8% at the end of the second quarter.
In addition, there is Zhou Keping management of Huaxia Renaissance, Sun Wei management of Minsheng Gayin Strategy Selection, at the end of the second quarter than at the beginning of the year have increased their positions in the pharmaceutical industry position of nearly 7 points.
"After this wave of gains, the proportion of public equity positions in biomedicine may have increased in the fourth quarter." A pharmaceutical industry brokerage researcher told the first financial reporter.
"There are some changes in the fundamentals of the pharmaceutical sector, some institutions want to take the medicine to do winners and losers, part of the previous main consumer and value stocks of large institutions also want to rely on the medicine this wave of the market to do a rebound." A private equity institution investment director told the first financial reporter.