"Value Firm" has always emphasized that the third-party test is a good track, but not many people listen to it, everyone's mind put Buddha Still at the end of the epidemic, the epidemic benefited from the stock hit, Dean financial garbage, gold domain shareholders to reduce the holdings of the negative news, making, this track was smashed out of the gold pit and dare not enter.
Whether you enter, vive advanced, engaged in investment for so many years, to be honest, truly is the first time to see so "perfect" track.
Being in the medical industry, I realize how big the market space is, and it never ends. However, now the drugs and devices are facing the collection, but all the varieties that are targeted by the collection, is the classic prisoner's dilemma, there is no limit to the low price, so that the collection of varieties of track born into the "garbage".
Really, the word "garbage" is not an overstatement, such as coronary stents, "Value Firm" guessed that the meaning of the Medical Insurance Bureau should be cut from 10,000 to 2,3,000, the enterprise is also a little bit of money, to remove the intermediate links, you are good, I'm good, everyone is good.
But the MPS did not think of that, the collection of play is equal to the creation of a prisoner's dilemma, in which the enterprise, only desperately cut the price of this road can go, and so, raw price cut to the ankle.
In the future, but all the varieties of collective purchasing, see do not have to look at, who benefit, who reversed, who won, sorry, too much effort, too hard to get through, this kind of thing, this kind of money, left to the smart people to earn, the "value of the firm" to see the point of certainty.
Third-party testing, then, is the certainty of certainty.
Health insurance to control costs, good, third-party testing is to help health insurance to save money, the country as early as eight hundred years in advocating, just this progress was previously very slow, it does not matter ah, the new crown makes a lot of previously uncooperative hospitals are forced to cooperate with third-party testing, cooperation is a large real incense scene, the future of the naked eye, the cooperation between the two sides will be increased, mutually beneficial.
In terms of hospitals, do not have to personally spend money to get a lot of tests, outsourcing can earn a fortune; in terms of patients, due to the same test samples are more, the combined cost can be lower than in the hospital end to do, a good thing, the only bad thing is that you have to pay out of pocket, but for those who have commercial insurance, or the ability to afford it, it is definitely a great thing. In the future, if you can accept out-of-pocket expenses, you can enjoy good service and good medical care, and if you can't accept out-of-pocket expenses, the health insurance will give you protection for basic medical care; in terms of the health insurance, it doesn't cost me any money, which is a great thing!
Especially the implementation of DRGs, third-party testing takeoff, into the countdown, not clear DRGs students, please take a look at this article: better than technology and new energy vehicles, ICL, the next 10 years, one of the best track
In addition to the rapid development of this industry itself, the very unique advantage lies in the oligopoly, in the prospectus of the gold domain medicine. In the prospectus of Goldcorp, it is clearly written: considering the requirements of third-party medical testing for test quality and operational efficiency, the future of China's third-party medical testing market may continue to show an oligopoly pattern.
As the title of the previous article: one of the best tracks, the pattern is very clear.
At present, for the industry leader Golden Medical, "Value Firm" has written many times, we also basically accepted, Dean Diagnostics as the industry's oldest two, many people are still skeptical, so today, we once again pondered Dean.
In fact, the market, many organizations and V have put Dean with the gold domain in the various financial indicators to make a simple comparison, so as to conclude that Dean is not as good as the gold domain, so hasty conclusion, "Value Firm" is not recognized.
You have to go back in time to see why Dean's finances are so bad.
Dean started out as an agent of Roche Diagnostics, unlike Goldcorp, which went down the third-party lab path early on. Backed by Roche, in fact, Dean the agent has been doing well, but only a small agent is bound to be no future, see the opportunity of the third-party laboratory, Dean began to march downstream.
At the beginning, Dean's entry was also very solid, until 2015, the company is in a very good financial position in the high-speed growth period. A very obvious point, Dean's most complained about accounts receivable, is from 2015 onwards deterioration, and then with the gold medical "financial" gap will be wider and wider.
Let's rewind to 2015 and see what happened.
In fact, Dean's boss is a super bullish person, in a detailed analysis of the rise of overseas LabGrop and Quest three-way labs, Chen's boss y realized that the third-party diagnostics is an oligopoly of the market, the nature of the industry has determined that the late entrants do not even have to drink soup.
But, and foreign private clinics, private hospitals, many very different point is that China's public hospitals are too strong, each of the public hospitals have the urge to do big and strong laboratory, originally, the country in the early years out of the private hospitals let fly to run a period of time, they are basically free-range, but the natural attributes of the capital profit-making, so that the Putian system of hospitals are emerging in endlessly, and all of this, all of which strengthens the All of this has strengthened the country's determination to make public hospitals bigger and stronger.
Therefore, the company does not intend to simply do third-party test outsourcing, but want to do the whole industry chain through the new business.
That is: both agent and pure outsourcing and cooperation with the hospital **** build laboratory model, so as to seize the industry high point .
The idea is very good, but it is very difficult to realize, for this reason, the company a **** three aspects of the layout:
First of all: investment in the integration of domestic high-quality IVD product agents (selected basically Roche agents, the company knows them well), through the acquisition of these channels, in fact, the company opened the channel to the local tertiary hospitals, thus realizing the full range of hospitals at all levels in the province. The company has realized the omni-channel layout of hospitals at all levels in the province.
Secondly, the company has accelerated the layout of the third-party laboratory nationwide.
Third, the company began to cooperate with hospitals to build laboratories.
Each of the above is particularly burning money, so Dean's balance sheet began to rapidly deteriorate, the market once thought the company crazy, this stock price, are not broken bones, is to the rhythm of death.
It can be said that the company broke its comfort zone, through three years of extremely rapid deterioration of the balance sheet, for a future.
Starting in 2019, the company's debt situation began to improve, and now the company's majority shareholder's own bar has come down.
In this year's three-quarterly report conference call, the company itself said: Mr. Chen in addition to Dean did not have any other industry, 15 years of fixed increment are Mr. Chen pledge to borrow money to participate in the 18 years of the stock price fell too much on the face of a lot of pressure, and 18 years of fixed increment pledging rate is also too high by the regulation of the criticism, so behind the back of the consideration of the need to reduce the pressure of Mr. Chen's financial leverage, at present, it should be is considered to be to a relatively safe level.
Such a crazy, it does bring returns, and, this new crown, is simply a godsend, due to the perfect layout of the national laboratory, the integration of the industrial chain through, so that the company's new crown detection efficiency is very high, during the period, the company's profits rose sharply, although from the three quarterly report, the company's liabilities further deteriorated (because of the pressure of a large number of new crown receivables) accounts, settled at the end of the year, and more than Dean went to see Goldcorp, too).
Unsurprisingly, with the 2020 annual report, Dean's debt performance improves at a very fast pace, and a clear signal is that cash flow has improved at a very fast pace in the last two years.
The company itself also spoke in the conference call in the third quarter of this year: Liabilities are mainly brought by the previous acquisition of channels, the future is certainly a slow decline, the magnitude depends on the gradual replenishment of working capital .
So, this time the new crown is simply God's help to the company, so that the company made a big profit and significantly alleviate the company's debt.
Remember what The Value Firm said about Mennion Health earlier? At that time, we said that the business of the United States is a bit like a small three, because he is and public hospitals to grab business, health check this piece, is every hospital will not give up the fat meat, so the United States is basically the customer of the private sector.
But Dean and Goldfield are different, they are and hospital cooperation **** win, especially Dean, go simply industrial chain + platform road.
According to the company's own plan, by 2024, the company wants to realize that the service segment (i.e., lab revenue) will reach 60% of the entire company, with agency products dropping from 64% to 30%, and self-produced products to reach 10%.
Once this goal is reached, it means that Dean will fully surpass Goldcorp, and for the time being, this goal is not impossible, because after several years of catching up, Dean's ICL labs are already one more than Goldcorp's, and as of this year's third quarterly report, Dean owns 38 labs (not counting CRO labs in cooperation with TIGER), and 29 of them have achieved profitability.
In the same period, Goldcorp had 37 labs, 31 of which were profitable.
Then by the end of this year, Dean is likely to be more than 30 to achieve profitability, to 2021, the probability of all achieve profitability, and once Dean to achieve profitability, change the status quo "a few big cars pulling a small car" model, in the integration of the advantages of Dean, profits may be more flexible than the gold domain.
In fact, Dean and Goldcorp, in the view of the Value Firm, are particularly good, only that they are on completely different paths, standing in the present point of view to say that who's path is absolutely correct that is certainly not possible.
In our view, both are in the huge track of three-way labs, and the industry competition pattern is clear, the only uncertainty is who will be the boss, so it is entirely possible to bet on both.
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