In fact, the degree of dependence on foreign trade is a "double-edged sword", its increase and change on the one hand, China's more proactive participation in the international economy, improve China's economic status and influence, on the other hand, also for China's economic development has brought new risks and impacts. In general, as China's foreign trade continues to grow, the continued growth of foreign trade dependence will bring different degrees of impact on foreign trade and domestic economic development. These effects are:
1. Foreign trade friction intensified
Since the scale of China's exports continue to expand, China's exports suffered a marked increase in foreign anti-dumping and safeguard measures investigations. During the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, the number of anti-dumping cases filed in China were: 55 cases in 2001, 51 cases in 2002, 47 cases in 2003 and 57 cases in 2004. 2005, China's foreign trade friction has entered a "high incidence" period. In 2005, China's foreign trade friction even entered a "high incidence period", and has been repeatedly subjected to anti-dumping investigations by the United States, the European Union, India and other countries and regions. China has become the country that suffers the most anti-dumping investigations in the world. In addition, anti-subsidy, green barriers, technical barriers and other issues have become some other countries and regions to deal with my domestic
products of the way. It can be seen that the development of China's foreign trade and the increasing dependence on foreign trade has made China's foreign trade has inevitably entered the era of international economic friction.
2. Impact on national economic security
Energy, mineral resources, certain key equipment and parts and components of the high degree of dependence on imports is easy to make the country's economic lifeblood subject to others. Once the international economy fluctuations, the domestic economy is bound to have some difficulties. At present, China's oil dependence on foreign countries is about 35%, according to expert estimates, by 2020, China's oil dependence on foreign countries will reach 60%, a large part of China's oil supply will rely on international supply. How to effectively reduce China's dependence on foreign countries for important strategic resources is an important problem that we need to pay serious attention to and solve. In addition, at present, China's imports are mainly manufactured goods, of which capital products and high-tech products occupy a dominant position, which reflects the high dependence of China's domestic industries on international high-tech and capital goods, and the relative lagging behind of China's domestic industries in scientific research and development. With the growing number of imports of important strategic materials, key products
and technologies, the impact of imports on national economic security will be further increased.
3. Impact on the development of domestic industries
China's high foreign trade dependence is mainly manifested in the export of labor-intensive products on the comparative advantage. Therefore, textile and clothing, footwear, toys and other products have been China's bulk export commodities, but these industries have actually appeared in the situation of supply exceeds demand, and the continuous expansion of this low value-added industries is not conducive to China's domestic industrial structure upgrading and upgrading, and increase the difficulty of realizing the goal of improving the competitive advantage of foreign trade. The rising dependence on foreign trade highlights the irrational development of China's industrial structure, the development of tertiary industry is still lagging behind the reality.
4. Deteriorating terms of trade
China's exports are mainly labor-intensive products, and imports are mainly capital- and technology-intensive products. Generally speaking, the price elasticity of supply and demand is higher for the former and lower for the latter. This asymmetric price elasticity of supply and demand leads to the fact that in the import of capital- and technology-intensive products, China's dependence on imported products is greater than the dependence of other countries on China's supply. Especially in recent years, China's large imports of energy and a variety of resource products, the price elasticity of demand is relatively low, that is to say, regardless of what happens to the international market price changes, China's demand for imports will maintain a certain level of growth, and our country is a large country, once a large number of imports, but also caused by the rise in the international market price, which not only exacerbates China's dependence on overseas products such as energy, but also deteriorate Terms of trade to reduce our economic welfare.
I over the current dependence on foreign trade in a situation where it is more reasonable, this issue to be studied by experts and scholars. (The subject could be the subject of a doctoral dissertation:)