I'll give you some simple examples:
(1) Americans bought a house counted once the GDP, but also according to the price of the house discounted into the monthly rent, the amount of the rent and then counted once the GDP. its logic is: you rent out the rent, do not rent out the same as if you rent to yourself, don't accidentally, so blow up.
If the U.S. median house price is $500,000, the annual rent of $30,000, the U.S. has 100 million households (families non-rental), the U.S. a year of false increase of 3 trillion dollars in GDP.
(2) The United States is the calculation of the investment method, China is the calculation of the output method, that is to say, the Chinese inputs have not yet been outputs are not considered to be GDP, but the United States counts.
(3) Because investment generates debt, so the U.S. debt is also counted as GDP, China's GDP does not count debt.
(4) China's large number of stall economy, small-scale catering, night market is not counted in the GDP, but you know how powerful the night beer around you.
To summarize: if China uses the US algorithm GDP is more than 32 trillion dollars, 50% higher than the United States; if the United States uses China's GDP algorithm is only 70 trillion yuan, 30% lower than China.
Every country's GDP statistics are different, and if the Americans think it's real, then it's real. If we were to follow the U.S. way of counting, I'm afraid we would already be the top GDP country.
The U.S. GDP calculation method is not as exaggerated as India's, but it is still relatively pompous. Our calculation is output-based, the old U.S. is investment-based.
Let's say, the same production of 10 million of the plant, which used the steel, cement, decoration are counted to the head of the manufacturer, the use of the party will not be re-calculated GDP. but the United States is different, the 10 million of steel and equipment, if not purchased, it will only be counted once, but you buy as a factory investment, then the 10 million should be included in the GDP statistics. The category. So the same 10 million output value, we only count 10 million, people counted once when they leave the factory, and again when they invest. So this number is not real for us, but it's a legitimate way of calculating the number of people in the world.
In addition, the United States in the consumer side of the statistical coverage is relatively large, basically no "fish out of water", and our market economy is almost not calculated, such as stalls, stalls, small stores, online stores, these consumer side are not included in the GDP statistics, and even taxes are not.
If calculated in the U.S. way, our GDP would have to be at least 30-50% steeper. After all, the market is a multi-trillion dollar market, and with the duplication of industrial and investment-based calculations, it's a safe bet that we'll be able to overtake the United States.
But Japan in the 90s, because the size of GDP makes the old U.S. feel a huge threat, suffered a multifaceted economy downgrade. That seems to be the stock market and property market triggered by the crash, but in fact the pushers behind the scenes are clear is the old U.S., dared not dare to say just.
So later, including Japan, many powerful countries have learned smart, the economy is pragmatic, are the main statistical scope of the compression, as long as you are happy with the old United States, you are willing to how to count how to count, you want to be the boss of you when, in fact, their respective pounds of how much everyone understands themselves.
The U.S. Gdp is real, the income generated in the market activities, are real Gdp, whether it is the income of lawyers, or medical or education income, are real Gdp. increasingly automated, intelligent manufacturing future will make more and more people from the manufacturing industry to the service industry. We in China will also shift our economic center of gravity to the service sector in the future. This is the way to go! The difference between us and the US in the future is that most of our manufacturing will not be outsourced to other countries, there will be some international division of labor, but we will own the core technology. The GDP share of healthcare and education will not be as high as in the US, because education and healthcare are public **** products that do well and are abundant in China and the government won't let her set the prices so high. Lawyer GDP in China is even more unlikely to be as big as in the United States, the law is not as detailed, lawsuits are not so many, Chinese people are not as much as Americans, non-legal ways of adjustment are many! Chinese people eat, play, entertainment, shopping, socializing, travel, parenting, honoring the elderly, and holiday spending are all different from the rest of the world. gdp structure distribution will also have Chinese characteristics!
The U.S. three industries accounted for more than 80% of GDP, one or two industries and accounted for less than 20% of the proportion of GDP, three industries accounted for a proportion of GDP so high only the U.S. can do because of the dollar hegemony, the U.S. only need to print money to buy the products they need, only to desperately buy overseas goods to more output of U.S. dollars, and only more output of U.S. dollars in order to maintain U.S. dollar hegemony, and for this reason, the trade must be Deficit in order to export the dollar, so the United States only need to print money do not need to produce their own products, only military and high-end industries to maintain military and technological leadership, but also must encourage domestic consumption, which must be implemented in the country to encourage high income to encourage more consumption in order to export more U.S. dollars, the United States of America, such a high-consumption type of country is built on the basis of the hegemony of the dollar in other countries can not be replicated in other developed countries of the West high income is occupied at the high end of the industrial chain, as well as the high income of the Western countries. Income is to occupy the high end of the industrial chain, as well as the population is small, rich in resources, and even rely solely on the export of resources can live well, Japan and South Korea is to rely on the advantages of occupying the middle and high end of the industrial chain of large quantities of exports to support the domestic economy and people's high incomes, so in order to become a high-income countries, a rich export of resources, one rely on the export of medium and high end products, China relies on the export of low and medium-end products can only support the middle and low incomes, China wants to improve the people's Living standards, improve people's income, can only industrial upgrading, China's industrial upgrading into the high-end industry chain, will inevitably impact on the interests of the West and Japan and South Korea, and will even challenge the interests of the United States, especially China's leading in the 5G, if China's 5G monopoly in the world, the future world will certainly belong to China, so the United States is anxious to must be suppressed in China, the United States has adopted a variety of despicable, shameless and nasty tactics for this purpose. It is very clear that if China occupies the middle and high end of the industrial chain, the end of the United States will come.
The figures should be real, but the calculation method is a bit different from ours. As an example, it is easy to understand, in our country now please family nannies have a certain scale, indicating that people's living standards in the improvement, but also shows that people's employment mode diversification, but in our country families pay for nannies are not counted in the GDP, while in the United States such expenditures are to be counted in the GDP, on that lawyer's fees, the United States a year of lawyers will be the cost of creating a country of more than one trillion dollars in GDP. The GDP of more than a trillion dollars a year, and our country's annual legal fees about $50 billion or so, from these simple data can be seen in the United States and China's GDP composition of the difference, but also from these data in the real experience that we are the world's manufacturing center of such a real thing.
You see the U.S. GDP figures are so high, you may think there is water! But let's note one thing - Accumulation, comrade.
Capital accumulation, technology accumulation, resource accumulation, knowledge accumulation.
The old U.S. is a country that has completed industrialization for more than a hundred years, experiencing several industrial revolutions, and in the later period, it is guiding the industrial revolution. The landowner's family really has a surplus of food.
In ancient times, we did have a glorious past, but the accumulation of agricultural society and industrial society is not a concept. The so-called 19th century Chinese GDP how high those are not reliable, agricultural society wealth accumulation efficiency to check much, most of the resources are to be consumed, and the same time has entered the industrialization of the European countries can not be compared. European and American scholars have come up with historical comparisons, what ancient China's GDP ratio what, are estimated, with the logic of the industrialized era to reverse or measure, said China's mid-Qing Dynasty than the European strong what, that belongs to the Guan Gong war Qin Qiong, other people say even if we can't lie to ourselves, backwardness is to be beaten by the slogan of the sea did not forget.
The industrialization of China, stumbling, late than the West for a hundred years, late, not just the problem of technological backwardness, but you can not get so much room for action, the market initiative, technological dominance has been occupied, and even ideological hegemony.
What to do, continue to focus on development, solve their own problems, do not drift.
Always asked why China is so involution, is the same, you are the latecomer, there is no premium space, the first to live in, in search of space and opportunity, either like most areas, lying flat Ren mock, the people to fend for themselves, the elite to fight for the developed countries or the world's empire of the bed ticket to enjoy the order of the others, and then pay a sum of the order of the tax - your investment, technology, and discriminated against as a second-class citizen are all part of the order tax.
Order is expensive. If you don't believe me, build your own safe zone and see.
Some people say that the U.S. manufacturing sector is hollowed out, which is not entirely true, the U.S. is only hollowed out at the low end of the manufacturing sector, and he has been pursuing high-yield industries, including manufacturing, which has contributed to his technological advances, and also had the side effect of causing an unprecedented boom in his financial sector.
Secondly, the role of the U.S. dollar is very large, the dollar is the world's major currency in circulation and reserve currency, this characteristic determines the issuance of U.S. dollars, the U.S. debt level ceiling is very high, far more than the average country, he has the world's productive capacity for the endorsement of his liabilities. So the U.S. government is not afraid of excessive debt levels, even if the collapse, unless you do not use the dollar or the consequences of the collapse is also a global economic crisis to bear, North Korea, Iran or become the biggest winner.
Again, the United States has a mature financial market, no matter how many problems, in the world for financing, the United States is the best choice, which means that the world economy, the results of development, the United States is bound to share.
Compared with our country, our road is still very long.
The scale of high-tech manufacturing is still very small, the key technology has not been industrialized, most of the low-end manufacturing industry absorbs a large number of employed people, there is no world currency plus, there is no financial industry woolgathering all over the world, our country can not be a large number of labor capacity is not high enough to transfer the population to the tertiary industry to go, our country there is still a long time in the future to have to maintain the scale of the low-end manufacturing industry, construction industry, agriculture to Stabilize employment stabilize prices stabilize currency. It is exports, investment.
Blindly expanding the tertiary industry is not good, finance, software, design, etc. is also the tertiary industry, but the labor force labor capacity requirements are high, and, although they create GDP, but the contribution to daily consumption is very small.
China and the United States of America's GDP accounting method is different, the United States of America's GDP is the expenditure method of accounting, expenditure method of GDP = consumption + investment + government purchases + net exports.
And China is based on the production method + income method of accounting, this and China's stage of development, tax system and so on are related. So the GDP of the two countries can not be compared directly with the data, need to be fully integrated measure.
The accounting method of the United States determines that its residents' consumption + government expenditure is the main component of GDP, the United States has been the world's first consumer power, for example, in 2017, the United States total retail sales of consumer goods was 5756.4 billion U.S. dollars, the U.S. GDP of 193,621 U.S. dollars in 2017, accounting for 29.73% of the proportion of GDP.
For example, U.S. consumer spending in the second quarter of this year, "an annualized decline of 34.6%", mainly because of the epidemic makes a lot of residents to "reduce the design activities", tightened spending. So you can see that US GDP fell as much as -30%+ in the second quarter of this year, so you can see its relevance!
In addition, the U.S. is the largest exporter of services, the volume of U.S. trade in services in 2017 was about 1.319 trillion U.S. dollars, so although the U.S. net exports of goods trade is negative, but the net exports of trade in services can be pulled up a lot.
And its goods imports are mainly used for domestic consumption, so the larger the goods imports, the higher the domestic consumption, is complementary.
Another component of the expenditure method: investment. Is the U.S. doing less of this? Although it seems that the United States of America's infrastructure investment is not as good as our country, but the United States of America's high construction costs, overseas investment. Coupled with the huge annual military investment in the United States, this is not small on the GDP pull up. 2017 China, the United States and Russia military spending, the United States up to 700 billion U.S. dollars, China invested more than 120 billion U.S. dollars, Russia about 60 billion U.S. dollars.
The United States of America's manufacturing outflow, but armament manufacturing is still basically in the country, this part of the input and output generated by the GDP can not be underestimated. Plus the extended benefits generated by its arms exports and so on.
And our country is a developing country, or manufacturing-based, emerging service industry has not been long, so the GDP accounting is still based on the production method and the income method, manufacturing and extension of the industry accounted for the proportion of the national economy is still very large. So the concept of our people still think that manufacturing is the source of GDP.
But the United States, as a developed country, is the main part of the national economy driven by consumption, technology export and various types of investment.
In summary, you asked about the massive outflow of U.S. manufacturing, the U.S. GDP is still as high as 20 trillion dollars, the number of real? From the U.S. GDP accounting method, it is true, but the accounting method is different between China and the United States!
U.S. GDP is also considered real, just different statistical methods, the United States to take the expenditure method of accounting GDP, so that the U.S. GDP may appear to be higher.
1, the algorithm of the U.S. GDPThe United States as a whole uses the expenditure method of GDP calculation, from the calculation method, the U.S. GDP may be relative to China, the number may be a little larger.
U.S. GDP algorithm: GDP = Personal Consumption + Private Investment + Government Consumption + Government Investment + Net Imports and Exports
The table above is the composition of the U.S. nominal GDP in 2019, in trillions of dollars. According to the composition of U.S. GDP 2019, U.S. GDP 2019 reached $21.428 trillion, of which personal consumption accounted for $14.563 trillion, or 67.96% of GDP, private investment reached $3.744 trillion, or 18.32% of U.S. nominal GDP composition in trillions of U.S. dollars GDP 2019, unit trillion U.S. dollars GDP, and government consumption was $3.019 trillion, accounting for 14.78% of GDP, and government investment was $0.735 trillion, accounting for 3.6% of GDP.
2. China's GDP Accounting MethodsChina's GDP statistics method is to use the production method. China uses the production method of accounting for GDP, relative to the United States, the number may be smaller, GDP is the sum of the value added by the various sectors of the national economy.
The formula is as follows: GDP = value added = total output - intermediate consumption GDP = the sum of the value added by each industry
China's use of the production method of calculation, it is necessary to account for one, two, three industries, and then summarized into our GDP, so that the data may be a little smaller than the United States.
3, the U.S. GDP statistics may be largerThe United States uses the expenditure method to account for the U.S. consumer market in 2019, the total volume of 5.7 trillion U.S. dollars, that is, the entire U.S. population total **** spent 5.7 trillion U.S. dollars, but the U.S. in the calculation of the GDP, personal consumption but reached 14.563 trillion U.S. dollars. But China's consumer market also reached 5.4 trillion dollars, but when China calculates GDP, our consumption may be a relatively small percentage.
And the U.S. to buy a house is freehold, listen to this quite beautiful, but every year is required to pay property taxes, and in the statistics of the GDP, not only to buy a house needs to be counted in the GDP, and even if they live, but also need to be counted as a "virtual rent", which accounts for a piece of the U.S. GDP of about The first is that it's not a good idea to have a good time, but it is a good idea to have a good time.
But in China, virtual rent is not counted, and even the rent of many actual rental houses may not be counted in the GDP.
China also has a lot of night market stalls, the individual economy, and a lot of underground economy, which may not be counted in the GDP. But all of these are probably counted in the GDP in the United States.
So, overall, the US GDP statistics are probably bigger.
ConclusionIn summary, the United States uses the expenditure method of calculation, the U.S. GDP statistics are very detailed, the project is very much, so it may appear to be larger, the United States reached $ 20 trillion, which is also considered to be the real data.
U.S. GDP figures are real? Should be sure, the figures are real, but the manufacture of this string of figures, about 30% is not made by people, or not one, two, three industries in the human physical intellectual labor manufacturing, but by a machine or a number of machines, this is what machine can create more than 3O% of the GDP? Yes, it is a money printing machine, accurately, is the Federal Reserve through the printing of money by the U.S. government through the issuance of debt in the form of buying, and then put Can only print more money to issue more national debt; according to rough calculations, the United States in the first half of the total GDP of about 8 trillion U.S. dollars, but the printing of money to issue debt amounted to 2.4 trillion, reaching an unprecedented proportion of 3O%, in accordance with the United States of America's current epidemic situation, the second half of the debt will only be more than not less; it can be said that, the United States of America this year (do not rule out the next three to five years) of the GDP, there is a 7O% of the society of the public to create a wealth, but there is a 30% of the wealth of the people. The Federal Reserve is printing money out of thin air, which is probably the real GDP of the United States.
If the "U.S. money printing machine" into a story, told to the Chinese children to listen to, the children will certainly shout: wow! The American people are really happy, rely on the printing machine can let the American people live a happy life without food and clothing ......; said children's words are reckless, in fact, it is really such a thing, the current United States, is able to rely on the hegemony of the dollar status, through the printing of money to let the U.S. people to live a happy life; but this is just a short-term, unsustainable, if the U.S. money printing machine If the U.S. money-printing machine has no scruples and prints a large amount of money for another three to five years, then it can be said with certainty that the U.S. catastrophe is coming; of course, it is not a new crown disaster, but an economic catastrophe; if the U.S. goes to this step, then it will be a subversive catastrophe.
The manufacturing exodus will certainly have an impact on GDP, but it will not be absolute. China and the United States GDP is calculated in different ways, output-based and investment-based calculation of GDP is a big gap, but said that the United States 20 trillion U.S. GDP has a false, is groundless.