After the news that Apple’s first electric car, Apple Car, will be released in September next year, it quickly triggered a butterfly effect and caused a sizable earthquake in the capital market.
On December 22, Apple and its supply chain stocks collectively rose. Apple once rose nearly 5% and closed up 2.85%; the stock prices of semiconductor, chip, and optical component suppliers also rose collectively, among which Lumentum Holdings rose 9%, and Skyworks, Cree, Qorvo, and Jabil rose about 2% and 2% respectively. %, 1.8%, 1%.
At the same time, new energy vehicle stocks fell collectively, with Tesla falling 3.8%, and Ideal, Xpeng, and NIO falling about 6%, 5%, and 4% respectively. ?
In a nutshell, it has set the automotive supply chain on fire and frustrated new energy car companies. As a core component of new energy vehicles, power batteries are deeply affected. In particular, it was revealed that Apple Car may be equipped with Apple's own breakthrough lithium iron phosphate battery technology, making lithium iron phosphate the focus of the industry for the Nth time in 2020. Previously, BYD released the "Blade Battery", and Tesla, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz all turned to lithium iron phosphate batteries, which has caused the popularity of lithium iron phosphate to surge several times and the installed battery capacity has also increased significantly. Data shows that from January to November this year, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 35% of the power batteries. Apple has joined the fray and put its weight on lithium iron phosphate, which will undoubtedly add another fire to lithium iron phosphate batteries.
The collective "defection" of automobile OEMs
A few days ago, according to people familiar with the matter, Apple's car-making project, which has been silent for a long time, is currently focusing on overcoming autonomous driving systems and battery technology. Among them, in terms of batteries, Apple is studying the "MONOCELL" battery design and considering using lithium iron phosphate (LFP) as a material to improve battery safety, increase vehicle mileage and reduce costs.
As a global technology giant, Apple’s decision will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the power battery industry, ushering in a new era for lithium iron phosphate batteries that were severely neglected in 2018 and 2019. Highlight moment.
Why is it called a “new highlight moment”?
Because lithium iron phosphate batteries have received good news many times in 2020: not only BYD, the second largest power battery manufacturer in China, has released a "blade battery" with high energy density and long endurance ( Also known as super lithium iron phosphate batteries), many car companies have also "changed sides" and switched to using lithium iron phosphate batteries again.
Tesla’s Model 3 model (standard range version) equipped with cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries began delivery in October this year. The 336th batch of "Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Product Announcements" released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in August showed that models such as Hongguang MINI, Baojun E100, BYD Tang, and BAIC EU5 have all been equipped with lithium iron phosphate versions.
In addition, SAIC Group has launched the Roewe Ei5 equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, and Great Wall has also launched a lithium iron phosphate version of the Euler Haomao model. It is reported that Xiaopeng, Changan, JAC Volkswagen, Dongfeng Fengshen and other car companies are applying for passenger cars equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries.
And traditional multinational car companies have not let go of lithium iron phosphate. Previously, Volkswagen China acquired 30% of the shares of domestic power battery manufacturer Guoxuan Hi-Tech for about 5.24 billion yuan, taking a fancy to Guoxuan Hi-Tech's lithium iron phosphate technology.
On the other hand, BYD has also reached agreements with Changan Automobile, Dongfeng Motor, Li Auto, Toyota Motor, etc. to supply "blade batteries" for the electric vehicles of these OEMs. Even Mercedes- Mercedes-Benz also plans to equip "blade batteries" on mid- to low-range models.
The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has surged
The collective "defection" of many OEMs has put lithium iron phosphate batteries on the road to reversal in 2020.
As the mainstream of the power battery industry, until 2017, lithium iron phosphate batteries still accounted for 50% of the installed capacity of power batteries (ternary lithium batteries accounted for only 45%).
But by 2018 and 2019, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery installed capacity dropped rapidly to 39% and 32%, and in the first quarter of 2020, only 23% remained.
However, the share of ternary lithium battery installed capacity has rapidly increased to 58% and 66% in the past two years, and climbed to a peak of 76% in the first quarter of this year.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries, once the darling of the market, have gradually been abandoned by new energy passenger vehicles and can only be seen in commercial vehicles and low-speed passenger cars. This change stems from the shortcomings of lithium iron phosphate - low energy density, which results in short vehicle cruising range and brings great inconvenience to car owners, so it is shut out of the passenger car market.
However, the ternary lithium battery that has been promoted in the past two years has continuously exposed a series of problems: poor safety and stability, high cost, short life, energy density has almost reached the ceiling, and it is difficult to obtain. breakthrough. In particular, safety issues have become a fatal flaw of ternary lithium batteries. From time to time, electric vehicles equipped with ternary lithium batteries have been exposed to spontaneous combustion and explosion accidents during charging, causing a certain amount of panic among consumers.
In this case, lithium iron phosphate batteries with good safety performance, long cycle life and improved energy density have been re-examined. This is also a key factor why many OEMs have switched sides to ternary lithium batteries and switched to lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Under the combined influence of BYD’s “Blade Batteries” and OEMs such as Tesla, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has soared rapidly.
Data show that in the second and third quarters of this year, the share of lithium iron phosphate in the total installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 29% and 34% respectively; the installed capacity from January to November accounted for 35% .
Among domestic OEMs, the one with the largest increase in demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries is SAIC-GM-Wuling (mainly installed on Hongguang MINI EV). The installed capacity in the first nine months of this year is the same as that of the whole of last year. More than 7 times, the demand for BYD and Changan Automobile has also surged. Demand will grow significantly in the future
The great reversal of lithium iron phosphate batteries has just begun.
First of all, looking at the overall situation of the global new energy vehicle industry, next year will usher in a new turning point.
In the Chinese market, with the help of favorable policies, the new energy vehicle market has re-entered an explosive period. The China Automobile Association predicts sales of 1.3 million vehicles this year and is expected to increase by 30% to 1.8 million vehicles next year; in In the European market, the government has adopted a "carrot + stick" energy transition policy to vigorously promote new energy vehicles, driving the sales of new energy vehicles to continue to rise; in the United States, the election of Biden, who pays attention to environmental protection and advocates the development of clean energy, as the new president will accelerate the development of new energy vehicles in the United States. Electrification of the automotive industry.
In other words, in several major markets around the world, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will see a significant increase, and the demand for power batteries, which are core components, will also increase significantly.
As the "darling" of the power battery industry, lithium iron phosphate has an opportunity to flex its muscles.
Looking at the domestic new energy vehicle market, among the existing pure electric models, the top-selling Tesla Model 3, BYD Han, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, and Euler Black Cat all use iron phosphate Lithium batteries, these vehicles are representatives of high-end, mid-range and low-end electric vehicles respectively, and the sales volume next year will most likely continue to lead.
At the same time, Changan, SAIC, BAIC, Great Wall, Chery, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz have all turned their attention back to lithium iron phosphate, and will launch more new models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries in the future.
Power battery suppliers are also very aware of current affairs and have begun to adjust the manufacturing ratio of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. Especially CATL and BYD are clearly leaning towards lithium iron phosphate.
BYD, which adheres to the lithium iron phosphate technology route, has not only replaced all of its models with "blade batteries", but "blade batteries" will also be installed on more electric vehicles of other brands in the future. CATL is also adjusting its production lines to supply the growing demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries for the domestic Tesla Model 3.
Now, the upcoming Apple car will also choose the lithium iron phosphate route, which will undoubtedly make the fire of lithium iron phosphate batteries even more intense, causing more automobile OEMs and power battery suppliers to turn their attention to it. As for lithium iron phosphate, it is expected that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries will increase significantly in the future, and the price of raw materials will also rise accordingly.
With the continuous increase in popularity and the rapid increase in battery installed capacity, it is not impossible for lithium iron phosphate to once again become the mainstream technology route for power batteries.
Based on the analysis of various securities firms, the following listed companies in the field of lithium iron phosphate are worthy of attention:
Cathode material suppliers: Defang Nano, Betterry, Xiangtan Electrochemical; Power battery Manufacturer: CATL, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Penghui Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.