May 12, Wenchuan, Sichuan Province, a 7.8-magnitude earthquake, this earthquake also shook the A-share market: Whether it was yesterday's stock market softened at the end of the day, or 66 listed companies affected by the earthquake today, suspension, Shanghai and Shenzhen opened sharply lower, are a true reminder of the stock market suffered a significant tremor. So, how will the earthquake affect the market? Most organizations believe that the earthquake has a mixed impact on listed companies, the market will have a certain impact in the short term, but will not change the medium-term upward trend of the stock market.
66 listed companies suspended
Wenchuan earthquake yesterday afternoon has been an immediate impact on the stock market. After the opening yesterday afternoon, the stock index rose all the way up, but by the earthquake news, the Shanghai Composite Index softened at the end of the day.
This is only the market's first reaction to the earthquake, today, 66 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets by the earthquake began to suspend trading.
The two markets also jumped under the double impact of the earthquake and the reserve ratio adjustment, the Shanghai index rebounded in the early morning under the concept of post-disaster reconstruction stocks active, but constantly sent back to the disaster report so that investor confidence has been hit by a certain blow, coupled with the financial stocks by the negative impact of the collective low, dragging the market low shock finishing.
Tourist speculation in the post-disaster reconstruction plate
While the two stock indexes opened sharply lower today, but the market's tourists actively speculate in the post-disaster reconstruction of the plate, pharmaceuticals, cement, building materials, iron and steel after the disaster benefited from the plate throughout the day at the top of the plate gainers.
Which, the pharmaceutical plate rose more than 6%, the two cities stopped the vast majority of stocks are pharmaceutical stocks and cement stocks. Pharmaceutical plate stopped non-ST shares nearly 40, nearly half of the shares rose more than 5%. Cement plate also stopped more than half of the shares.
In stark contrast, the two cities of insurance stocks fell sharply, the three major insurance stocks, in addition to Ping An (44.690,0.85,1.94%) suspended, the remaining two insurance stocks have suffered a heavy blow, China Taipao (21.470,0.52,2.48%) fell 7.18%.
A few happy and a few sad
Dongfang Securities believes that the post-disaster reconstruction will boost the demand for cement in Sichuan Province and the surrounding region, which is expected to cause regional cement prices to rise. At present, Sichuan's A-share cement listed companies are mainly ST Shuangma (000935) and Sichuan Jinding (6.320,0.07,1.12%) (600678) two, such as the production has not been affected by the two companies benefited the most. In addition, the surrounding cement listed companies will be enhanced sales, such as located in Hubei Huaxin Cement (17.990,0.81,4.71%), sales in Chongqing in 2007 reached 910,000 tons, market share of 3.1%, affected by the disaster, its sales area will be able to be extended to the interior of Sichuan Province. Gansu Qilianshan (11.940,0.10,0.84%), Shaanxi Province, ST Qinling, Conch Cement (31.370,1.17,3.87%) can also be favorably affected.
And the insurance sector is always the first to be hit when a major disaster strikes.
Shenyin Wanguo released an analyst report on May 13, saying that the earthquake will cause the market to worry about the rise of insurance claims, resulting in pressure on insurance companies' share prices. Shenyin Wanguo believes that all three A-share insurers will be affected to varying degrees, and that the impact will be felt by China Taipao, Ping An and China Life (31.500,0.74,2.41%) in order of magnitude, taking into account each company's existing business scale and market capitalization. However, concerns over current results could lead to excessive price declines in insurance stocks under pressure, which would be a buying opportunity, and it's advisable to keep an eye on subsequent casualty and especially property damage data.
Qilu Securities believes that listed insurance companies will have a negative impact in the short term, which will have a greater impact on the investment psychology of the real estate industry. For the earthquake area and the spread of the performance of listed companies in the infrastructure, transportation, tourism and hydropower industries will have a greater impact. And the pharmaceutical industry, machinery-related industries, construction and building materials industry will have to pull a certain role.
CITIC Securities (19.780,0.47,2.43%) suggests that investors choose to focus on short-term attention to the rescue of medical and construction of disaster areas related to industry sectors, including medicine, cement, machinery, steel. Short-term avoidance of local raw materials, equipment, production capacity, market damage is more serious industries, such as tourism, food and beverage, chemical industry sectors related to the affected areas.
Medium-term uptrend will not change
Wenchuan earthquake on the stock market in the end how big is the impact? Comprehensive major investment banks and research institutions published on the 13th assessment report, it can be seen that most institutions believe that the earthquake on the market in the short term will have a certain impact, but will not change the stock market medium-term upward trend.
Wu Chunlong, chief strategy analyst of CITIC Construction, said the Wenchuan earthquake will not have a greater impact on the overall stock market, and in general, the incidental events will not have a sustained impact.
Guoxin Securities believes that sudden disasters for the market constitute a short-term impact is inevitable, and the reserve requirement ratio upward austerity policy together with its negative impact amplifies the pessimism of the market, which, the more central issue is the impact of the disaster may be further raised prices; but Guoxin Securities adhere to the relatively optimistic attitude of the market situation in the second quarter.
Qilu Securities said, as the earthquake disaster on the regional economy of the region has a huge negative impact, but the national economy as a whole and the performance of listed companies is relatively limited, so it will not change the main running trend of the securities market.