Zambia's Key Economic Indicators and Forecasts
2000
2001
2002
2003e
2004f
2005f
Real GDP Growth (%) 1
3.3
5
1.4
7.1
5.2
5.1
Fiscal balance (% GDP)1
-5.9
-7.94
-4.19
-1.79
-3.4
-3.2
Annual inflation (%)1
30.1
18.7
26.7
17.2
18
17.4
Exchange rate (ZMK/US$)2
4158
3830.4
4334.4
4645.5
4850
4900
Exports (FOB,USD billion)1
7.46
8.84
9.16
11.17
10.50
11.50
Imports (FOB, $ billion)1
9.78
12.53
12.04
13.88
13.00
14.00
Balance of trade ($ billion)1
-2.32
-3.69
-2.88
-2.71
-2.50
-2.50
Current account ($ billion)2
-5.97
-7.30
-6.49
-6.27
-4.50
-4.50
Foreign exchange reserves (ex-gold, $ billion)2
2.45
1.83
4.51
2.48
3.50
3.75
Foreign debt (billion dollars)1
63.1
72.7
64.9
62.7
65.0
65.0
Note: 1. e/f=BMI estimates and forecasts; 2. Data sources: 1 Central Bank of Zambia, 2 IMF
Since independence, Zambia has been a mono-economy heavily reliant on copper, cobalt, and other non-ferrous metals mining, especially copper, which, even in the 1990s, when copper production and exports were declining, and the world price of copper was gradually going to a low ebb, the value of the country's copper mining output still accounted for a significant portion of GDP. Mining still accounts for about 10% of GDP, more than 50% of export value, and 9% of the employed population. in 2002, of Zambia's US$920 million in export earnings, exports of traditional products, mainly copper, cobalt, and other minerals, amounted to US$690 million, accounting for 75% of the total. Considering the pulling effect on the upstream and downstream industries, including building materials, chemical industry and other manufacturing industries, roads, electricity, telecommunications and other infrastructure construction, and even mining supporting education, medical care, community development, etc., in fact, the mining industry's contribution to Zambia's national economy is far greater than this. since 2004, the international market price of copper has risen and has remained at a relatively high level, Zambia, a copper-producing country is even more rare opportunity. The mining industry, which is the backbone of the economy, has begun to grow out of its languishing situation. With the recovery of the Zambian economy, the Zambian mining investment has become a hot spot again.
I, copper resources
Zambia's copper resources is a northwest-oriented copper belt, 200-250 kilometers long, 65 kilometers wide, Zambia - Congo copper belt is the world's largest sedimentary copper deposits. 2002, Zambia's copper reserves have been proved to be 1.2 billion tons of copper reserves, the average grade 2.5 percent in 2002 in Zambia. In 2002, a new copper mine with reserves of 480 million tons was discovered in the Lumwana area of the North-Western Province, which is said to be one of the largest undeveloped copper mines in the world, jointly explored by Equinox Resources Ltd. of Australia and Phelps Dodge of Canada, and is currently seeking cooperative investment partners*** for development. However, geologically, the mine does not yet have mature development conditions, and because the ore body contains irregularly distributed uranium, it has radioactive contamination, which involves the regulatory issues of the International Atomic Energy Agency. According to another source, Zambia's copper reserves were 2 billion tons in 2004, but are yet to be further explored.
Zambia was once one of the world's most important copper producers. 1964 Zambia's copper production of 697,000 tons at the time of independence, accounting for 13% of the world's total production, reached a peak of 740,000 tons in 1969, and gradually declined. since the second half of the 1990s, Zambia's copper production has declined to an annual output of 300,000 tons of copper production in the world has also declined to account for the proportion of only about 2%.
Zambia's major copper mines and their reserves
Mine (country of subsidiary)
Reserves (million tons)
Grade (%)
Statistical time
Konkola (multinational)
100
4.33
2001
Chibuluma (South Africa)
8.3
3.50
2001
Nchanga (MCA)
121
3.76
1988
Nkana (Canada)
323
2.21
2001
Chambishi (China)
33.5
2.55
2001
Luanshya (India)
53.4
2.37
2001
Mufulira (Canada)
39
3.16
2001
Kansanshi (USA)
24.2
2.90
1988
Resource: Zambia Ministry of Mines and Development (MMD)
With the completion of the privatization of all mines in March 2000, investment increased and production gradually resumed, with output rising year on year. in 2003, Zambia produced 349,817 tonnes of copper, with exports reaching a 10-year high of 329,564 tonnes, valued at US$655 million, or 57.6 per cent of the total exports of US$1,137 million. from the second half of 2003 onwards, the price of copper rose rapidly. The average price on the London Metal Exchange reached US$3,000 per ton in March 2004, and although it has fallen since then, it has remained at a relatively high level of US$2,800-3,000 per ton. Stimulated by this factor, Zambia's copper production continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2004, reaching 196,302 tons, up 23.4% from 159,030 tons in the same period of the previous year. Exports amounted to 192,798 tons and US$485 million. the average price on the London Metal Exchange reached US$3,300 per ton in early 2005, further stimulating investment in copper mining.
Zambia's copper production and exports (tons)
2001
2002
2003
2004 (Jan-June)
Production
298,150
340,367
349,817
196302
Exports
296926
349000
329564
192,798
Source: Zambia's Ministry of Finance and National Planning, Bank of Zambia report
After the open-pit mines and the rich seams have been mined out, the production of developed The decline in Zambian copper production and the consequent reduction in its contribution to economic development is inevitable, given the inevitable decline in production from mines and Zambia's lack of the huge financial resources needed to develop deeper and newer mines. Taking Konkola Copper Mines, the largest mine in Zambia, as an example, its most potential resource is the deep mine development project (KDMP), which is estimated to have 100 million tons of copper ore with a grade of 4.33%, and has a mining life of about 20 years. in January 2002, the former largest shareholder of Konkola Copper Mines, Anglo-American Plc, announced that it was withdrawing its investment, and the Zambian government started to work on the development of the mine. to withdraw its investment, and the Zanzibar government set out to find a new strategic investment partner with the main aim of developing the Concora Deep Mine project, requiring investors to put in at least $600 million in start-up capital.
In terms of the current economic situation, without the support of foreign investors, Zambia to revitalize the copper mining industry has a certain degree of difficulty in the foreseeable future, it is difficult to return to the 1960s and 1970s production level. But from the perspective of the development of the world economy, Zambia will remain one of the main sources of copper, with a more important strategic position.
Two, cobalt ore resources
Zambia's cobalt and copper associated, concentrated in the north and northwest of the Copperbelt Province and Northwest Province. According to the 1997 report of the United States Geological Survey, Zambia's cobalt resources are about 540,000 tons.
Because of the former Zambia United Copper Mining Company's lack of investment capacity, in the 1990s, Zambia's copper and cobalt production fluctuations are quite large. In recent years, cobalt production has basically stabilized at 3,000-4,000 tons, accounting for 15-20% of global production. in the first half of 2004, mines concentrated on copper mining, cobalt production was affected, with an output of 1,080 tons, a decrease of 32.5% compared with 1,600 tons in the same period of the previous year.1 -May, cobalt exports were 995 tons, down 24.4 percent from a year earlier.
Zambia's cobalt production and exports (tons)
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004 (Jan-June)
Production
3986
3913
3202
1080
Exports
4721
4016
3374
995*
Source: Ministry of Mines Development, Zambia; Quarterly Report of the Bank of Zambia
Third, Other Metals
In addition to copper and cobalt, Zambia also has non-ferrous and ferrous metal mineral resources such as lead, zinc, iron, manganese and nickel.
Lead and zinc: proven lead and zinc ore reserves of about 5 million tons, the average grade of zinc is 25%, lead is 10%.
Iron: mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the country, with estimated reserves of about 900 million tons, containing 50% iron, of which there are 190 million tons of proven reserves in the Mumbwa area of the Central Province, and there are two rich mines with grades above 62%. Zambia's iron ore so far undeveloped.
Manganese: most of the manganese ore in Zambia is of low grade and small value, and the manganese ore of industrial value is in Mansa, Luapula Province, which, according to the information of 1985, has reserves of 1.5 million tons with a grade of 60-70%.
Nickel: occurs south of Lusaka, the status of the resource is unknown. in July 2004, an Australian mining company Albidon invested 1.5 million U.S. dollars to begin geological exploration for nickel in this area.
Four, gemstone resources
Zambia has more types of gemstones, amethyst, citrine, emerald, tourmaline, garnet, aquamarine, diamonds and so on. However, most of the gemstones are mined by small private enterprises with small scale and low processing level, and most of the gemstones are traded through informal channels, so the statistics are very poor. The Zanzibar government intends to set up a gemstone exchange to bring gemstone trading into the formal market.
The EU-funded Private Sector Development Program (PSDP), which began in 2000, provides long-term credit support and technical cooperation to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), including financing for gemstone mines to purchase equipment. 2003 also saw the program sponsor Zambian gemstone miners to participate in international gemstone fairs in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, China. In July 2004, the World Bank provided Zambia with a $28.15 million loan for the Economic Development and Diversification Support Project, which aims to develop the gemstone, agriculture and tourism sectors.
V. Other non-metallic and industrial minerals
Zambia also has a rich variety of other mineral resources, such as apatite, limestone, graphite, barite, marble, coal and so on.
Apatite: It is widely distributed in the east, center, north and Lusaka. According to the information in 1985, the proven reserves are: the Eastern Province of Chilembwe (Chilembwe) has reserves of 1.5 million tons, grade 15% P2O5 degrees (buried depth of 50 meters); the Northern Province of Nkombwe (Nkombwe) has reserves of 1.6 million tons, grade 8% P2O5 degrees; Lusaka's Rufunsa (Rufunsa) has reserves of 2 million tons, grade 3 The reserves at Rufunsa in Lusaka are 2 million tons grading 3% P2O5.
Limestone: Lusaka's Chilanga to Kafue between the wide distribution, but reserves, grade and other information is not known. There is only one cement factory in Zambia at present, the product is in short supply and the market price is high (about 110 USD/ton). A number of enterprises are interested in building a cement plant in Zambia and have sent their staff to inspect the site, but due to the lack of information on the reserves, grade, physical and chemical analysis of the limestone mine, it is necessary to invest in exploration first, so there has been no substantial progress yet. In addition, the Ndola Lime Mine, which is being tendered for privatization, has a proven limestone reserve of 19 million tons, which can be mined for 40 years. The mine had its first privatization tender in 2002, which failed because there were no qualified bidders. The mine is 150 kilometers from the Kembashi copper mine, and a cement plant is envisioned in plans for the Kembashi Industrial Park.
Coal: Zambia's coal resources are mainly in the Southern Province. Mamba Collieries (Maamba Collieries) is the only state-owned coal mine in Zambia in mining, the thickest coal seam up to 10 meters, the average thickness of 5.5 meters, reserves are estimated to be 78 million tons of coal, coal quality is excellent; but due to poor management, insolvency (debt of 7.5 million U.S. dollars). The government intended to privatize the company, but both privatizations, in 1997 and 2001, failed when the acquirer withdrew again. The Government is currently commercializing the mine and hiring new management, while still seeking investment partners. The government has also indicated that it would consider assuming part of the debt if a new investor is interested in acquiring the mine. In addition, my private company Kolan invested more than 700,000 U.S. dollars to operate a coal mine in the southern province, with an annual output of nearly 100,000 tons, and has established a good sales channel, Chilanga Cement Factory, Mulungushi Textile Factory and so on are the company's regular customers. From the point of view of its reserves, Zambia's coal mining resources can basically meet its needs.