I. Introduction
1, China's total population is about 1.4 billion!
2, January 1, 2019, the National Health Commission held a press conference, at which Wang Haidong, director of the Department of Aging and Health of the Health Commission, pointed out that at present, China is in the stage of rapid development of population aging, and as of the end of 2018, the population of elderly people aged 60 years old and above reached 250 million. He said that the health condition of the elderly in China is not optimistic, as China's per capita life expectancy was 77.0 years in 2018, but according to research, China's per capita healthy life expectancy is only 68.7 years. The proportion of older people suffering from more than one chronic disease is as high as 75 percent, and there are more than 40 million disabled and partially disabled older people, so the demand for health services for the elderly is very urgent. -------- The average life expectancy of men is about 66 years old, and that of women is 74 years old; the future statutory retirement age: 65 for men and 60 for women! Series Report No. 10". The report shows that in 2018, the per capita housing floor area of urban residents was 39 square meters, an increase of 32.3 square meters from 1978; the per capita housing floor area of rural residents was 47.3 square meters, an increase of 39.2 square meters from 1978.
2. Introduction to Liaocheng
Liaocheng is located in the northwest of Shandong province, bordering Dezhou and Hebei in the north, Heze and Henan in the south, Jinan and Tai'an in the east, and Hebei province in the west, with a total population of about 6 million people, and the jurisdictions of Dongchangfu district, Linqing city, Yanggu county, Xin county, Chiping county (now self-appointed as Chiping district), Dong'a county, Guan county, and Gaotang county.The GDP belongs to the official data, which is of little significance for reference. GDP is official data and not of great reference significance, so it is omitted. The official average wage is 5,400 yuan per month (2019), the first or second last in the province in terms of economic development and strength. Unofficial survey data salary income between 2500-5000 yuan (most do not have social insurance). Consumption potential is insufficient and life is stressful! Belong to the standard fourth-tier cities.
1. The house prices in Liaocheng are analyzed in December 2019 as a point in time for numerical comparison, using the urban area or within the Dongchangfu district as a reference. The price of new houses in the old city (called price) is generally about 11,000, and the second-hand houses are also about 11,000, and the price of new houses and old houses is basically the same. The new city development zone or "high-tech zone" part of the area of the new house price is basically about 12,000, the old house is about 0.9 million, the new house and the old house price gap is large. But overall the real transaction price than the price can be lower than 0.2 million or so, the real transaction price distribution and then 0.8-0.95 million between, in line with the normal distribution. Then look at the rental price, because the rental price can best reflect the real development level of the region's real estate. Downtown to 130 sq ft - 150 sq ft house, the highest monthly rent will not exceed 2,000 yuan, turnkey the general trend of the price of about 1,200 monthly rent. Development Zone rent is even lower, basically maintained at 1000 below, especially some of the better location of the relocation of the basic housing and then 600 yuan or so. The rent to sale ratio is very low! This means that the growth momentum of housing prices is seriously weak! If Liaocheng maintains high prices and continues to go up, then renting is the wisest choice.
2. The number of existing houses in Liaocheng. The new north ring - east ring - south ring - west ring Counterclockwise rotation within the area for statistics. There are already more than 400,000 units of all housing units completed, under construction, commercial and collective in nature. The largest community in the region is the Alcadia group housing building, estimated housing another 40,000 units or so, can be called the largest steel coffin area within the city of Liaocheng - slum area.
3. The holders and consumers of real estate in Liaocheng. In addition to the developers, the holders are mainly scattered and sporadic family housing investment, part of the invisible speculators, and a small part of their own residential use. Liaocheng City District to officials, businessmen and businesswomen own up to 80% of the number of houses, a section-level, deputy division-level cadres, on average, owns more than 4 sets of houses, the average departmental cadres, on average, owns more than 8 sets of houses, key positions in the leadership and special power sector cadres, families own more than 10 sets of houses! And the masses of workers are generally maintained at the level of 1 or 2 sets of affluent housing between the level, which already includes the inheritance of housing.
And the real need to buy a house is the consumer population is mainly married and other rigid, improved housing! These people are also the so-called real estate leeks, need to developers regularly harvest! But leeks do not grow high, the trend of yield reduction is serious.
4. The composition of the price of housing. House by the price of land + construction costs. Liaocheng is currently the second most expensive land for 500 million acres (Liaocheng Cinnamon Garden), the first most expensive 877 yuan an acre (Liaocheng Xiangsheng real estate). Construction and safety costs are generally controlled within 1200 yuan / square meter! Multi-story houses have to control the construction cost of 900 yuan / square meter. The construction and safety cost here is the construction and installation company to get the winning price (including taxes and profits), plumbing, electricity, heating and even medium decoration cut in line with national standards of quality prices. In practice, combined with jerry-built illegal subcontracting, the cost can be reduced by 200-400 yuan / square meter! The real construction cost 1000 yuan / square meter (high-level), 600 yuan / square meter (multi-storey). Then calculate the land price discounted to the floor price; Xiangsheng Golden Scale House of Xiangsheng real estate in Liaocheng City, for example, his floor price of up to no more than 3,000 yuan / ㎡! The theoretical cost of Xiangsheng's high-rise buildings is also about 4,000 yuan again! Theoretical cost of the other location of the building will be less than 3800 yuan! But the asking price is more than 10,000 yuan, the surface profit is 163%. In order to profiteer, can't not mention another concept: public stalls. Because the current national law on the public stalls do not have a clear requirement, so the public stalls is the development of a piece of cloth to hide! Use it to cover up the dirty and naked fraud! Shandong Province's public stalls are famous throughout the country, Liaocheng's public stalls are the most famous in the whole of Shandong: big, very big, oversized! Xiangsheng Jinlin House as an example, his house public spread is not too outrageous, high-level basic and then between 24%-29%, multi-storey housing public spread and then about 15%. What are these public stalls, only know that there are evacuation buildings, elevators, etc., in fact, there are property rooms, gates, and even underground civil engineering will be counted in the public stalls. In addition there is a public share of the gods: planning map. Developers first 10,000 square meters of planning, in reality, also covered 9,000 square meters, and then find the government departments non-get a 12,000 square meters, and then this 2,000 square meters apportioned to the public share of each household, resulting in some 170 houses The actual use of the building area of 110 square meters, 140 square meters of the set of less than 90 square meters!
In reality, a 30-story high-rise building of a class of false public sales proceeds can offset the building's construction component! All said the true cost of the building is also the price at which the developer purchased the land!
Additionally, the developer's purchase price of the land is also false, which has been an open secret of the local government's land finance! For example, the developer to 800 million mu of the price of land, the government public record, etc., in fact, most of the cases is the government only require the developer to pay to 50% -70% can, or full payment and then return to the developer or to gratuitous allocation of other land and other compensatory measures to make up for the developer.
Summary, Liaocheng developers of the building cost is actually in the 2000-3000 a square foot of the real cost.
Some people may argue that labor, cement and steel have all gone up, so how can costs not go up? I do not refute, please read carefully the above mentioned, doubts since the solution.
5. The official environment of real estate in Liaocheng. In a word: the government and the developers want the buyers to become the receiver! Regardless of whether the buyers are speculators or just demand or other, etc., the local government (LG) and developers (LM) hope that the buyers will always pay to buy a house, LG and LM will always collect money to cut leeks. Only in this way, real estate will never fall, even if it sells a few houses a year, it will not collapse!
Local governments and developers will always be profit ****siblings. There are two major pieces of evidence: First, the wages of migrant workers, contractors and project payments will always be owed or even nothing, the government function will not be seriously and responsibly dealt with; this phenomenon and then reduce the cost of the developer's construction; Second, the buyers were cheated by the developer, the government part of the same will not be seriously and responsibly dealt with the developer sincerely, even if it is the developer to do the sky is angry and people complained about! This behavior then help developers to obtain illegal benefits without due discipline!
Local governments, through the power vested in them by the people, are selectively interpreting laws and regulations to induce people to spend money on high prices. For example, the division of the school district housing, zoning close to the school, specific requirements for work social security, residence permit, real estate license, etc., seemingly formal, but in fact in the abuse of power to use the so-called "formal procedures or means" required to be in the "informal and lawless social environment" in the masses. It can be imagined that the masses are very hurt! It can be imagined that the masses are very hurt! For example, Liaocheng, how many enterprises can be in accordance with the "Chinese People's **** and the State Labor Contract Law" to pay social security, how many workers received unfair treatment complaints and even arbitration, the functional departments seriously and responsibly to implement the law, the actual protection of workers?
6. The developer's follow-up to the art of sucking money. The latter property service is another means for developers to knock on the bones and suck on the marrow. Instead of "property service", it is "bloodsucking service". Liaocheng new house property fee is not moving is 1.5 yuan - 1.8 yuan - 2 yuan, basically in 1.8 yuan or more, but also according to the purchase of the floor area to pay, the real payment of property fees and accounts never open to the owners. Owners only need to know "the payment of property fees" on the line, the other owners have nothing to do with the property company is of course also the developer-controlled company is the owner of the grandfather, the grandfather to provide services owners dare to say bad? Public **** electricity, elevator fees, lighting fees, garbage fees and so on a wide range of names and need to pay separately. With an example of the property fee profiteering, if a high-rise building, floor area of 30,000 square meters, sold to 33,000 square meters, 300 households, the property fee of 1.8 yuan / m / m / month, the other costs of a household of 600 yuan / year; payment rate of 85%, the building a year of property income = 1.8 * 33,000 * 12 * 0.85 * 600 * 300 * 0.85 = 759,000 yuan. Because the warranty of the house is usually 5 years, which is borne by the building builder, so the first five years of the property will only bear a little health and security fees can be. In addition, the district can also generate revenue through advertising, a rough estimate of the building can generate a minimum of 60,000 yuan a year. Then the building's property income can reach a minimum of 820,000 / year, and the building's construction cost of 32 million yuan. 30 years will be able to earn back the construction cost through the property, in practice, the property only needs 25 years of time for the developer to earn back the construction cost!
7. Illegal sales in public **** areas. Typical case is the underground human defense engineering facilities. Human defense works are owned by the state, usually used by the owners, the most widely used is the parking space. Because it involves property law, contract law, special laws on human defense, as well as the specific interpretation of the local government's human defense management department does not make sense, resulting in a certain amount of confusion. Therefore, the developer thinks it is their own, can be bought and sold at will, or disguised trading. But the human defense parking space can not handle property rights, most of the whole component has been counted in the whole building, paid by all the owners, so the actual judicial cases in the human defense parking space only the right to use, the right to use all the owners *** with all the property can be commissioned according to the owners' committee to manage and collect the appropriate management fee, the income for the community. But the developer na, began to disguise the sale or blatant sale, Liaocheng parking space is generally in the 60,000-120,000 ranging from the general human defense parking space will be configured according to the proportion of 0.6-0.8, then the building is equipped with a minimum of 180 parking spaces, a parking space sold for $ 100,000, then a minimum of $ 18 million in illegal gains!
Three, Liaocheng real estate predicament
The above mentioned Liaocheng real estate how the profiteering, compared to readers have some understanding. But why are so many people talking about the developers are not good na? The reason for this is that the local government does not strictly enforce the relevant laws and regulations!
The law clearly stipulates that the first approval after the construction, the first funds in place and then start. But in reality, are building while submitting materials, or even build first after the approval of the report, or simply do not report, love to do what you want! In the end, it is not possible to apply for a real estate license, so that the buyer to bear! In addition, the developers simply do not have the funds, are through the so-called black relations won the bid, at the same time through bank loans and private loan sharks to obtain funds to pay the down payment of the land premium first ah, and then ask the construction side of the advance construction, empty gloves and white wolf! Local governments and businessmen operate together, the national construction law has become a piece of paper! The builder also has no money, in order to win the bidding will have to agree to the developer's requirements. Constructor also big package, also began to loan usury to obtain start-up capital, in most cases and then transfer the risk, began to illegal subcontracting subcontracting, appeared two packages of three packages of four packages, etc., and so on, until the hands of the real construction personnel has been no less than 8 packages! Each link in the middle began to renege on the debt, there is a contractor, workers are owed project payments and workers' wages, this is the construction ecosystem in Liaocheng. It is also the political ecosystem of the construction industry in the country.
Four, Liaocheng in the next ten years, the trend of housing prices analysis.
Liaocheng housing prices will also rise ，，，， continue to rise. The responsibility and the pusher is the local government! The local government and developers joint show, encouragement and oppression of the people to make hard to buy a house, increase the purchase of the atmosphere of the environmental pressure, but just do not increase the purchasing power! I boldly estimate that in 2025 the average price of the Liaocheng City District housing prices can reach 18,000 / square meters, the actual transaction price of not less than 15,000 / square meters, but 2025-2030 will gradually return to 2.5-3.5 tons of wheat prices / square meters. 2025 is the inflection point of the real estate industry in Liaocheng City, but also the first inflection point. Later there will be a new inflection point, all the inflection point is the inflection point of the decline
Then some readers will ask, the local government to grasp the local administrative power and inside information, developers are also rich and wealthy people, do they not know these risks? I'm not sure if it's a good idea for me to be here, but I'm not sure if it's a good idea for me to be here. Undeniably, they do hold political resources, but the law of economic development is not any external forces can interfere without authorization? Local governments and developers are now in a dilemma! On the one hand, local governments want to achieve political results, and construction and development is the simplest and most prominent way of development: simple, brutal and quick results. On the other hand, as long as the construction of China's urbanization does not stop, developers will have the environment to earn huge profits.
Liaocheng this place, the people in addition to planting vegetables, except for part-time work, trading steel, no other way of survival. Public prosecutors and lawyers studying medicine can get a salary of more than 10,000, other institutions and state-owned banks, state-owned electricity, petrochemicals and other monopoly industries can be more than 7,000 or so wages, these good units of the excellent class of people is to buy a house of good leeks, but also in the future developers focus on harvesting leeks.
V. superfluous.
In the next few years, property taxes will begin to be fully collected. This is a policy marker for the end of urban development. Land finance shifts to property taxation.
Additionally, there are several types of real estate that will be uninvestable in the future:
1. Shops. Stores in the current market have no investment value, and developers are adding the foreseeable gains of the next 50 years to the selling price. The number of stores is increasing every year, almost every neighborhood, every new building all supporting a number of stores, but with the population growth and consumption capacity in the gradual decline, which has resulted in high prices and the masses of the contradiction between the lack of consumption capacity. What's more, the stores of foreign provinces and cities are sold in Liaocheng, free of charge to accept to see the house. There is also what hosting and so on, is simply a typical Punjabi scam. This contradiction is also a typical contradiction in the context of China's comprehensive well-off society, but also a typical socio-economic contradiction under the new situation of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
2. apartments. Apartments are everywhere a pit. All over the country are selling apartments, apartments in Hebei to Shandong to sell, and publicity is to stay in the major well-known internationally renowned hotel hosting, if this is really the case is that you take the money developers with your money to sell the building to other people, you only get even the interest is less than the profit. Moreover, in many cases, these publicity are deceptive, simply can not be realized.
3. Sea view. A "concept house" that locals wouldn't live in for nothing. In a nutshell, it's a rip-off.
3.