From the perspective of potential economic growth capacity, the potential economic growth level of an economy is determined by the improvement of natural resources, capital accumulation, labor force in quantity and quality, and the allocation and efficiency of production factors such as capital and labor force. Judging from several factors that determine the potential economic growth, in recent years, with the substantial increase of investment, the speed of capital accumulation in China has increased rapidly, and the growth rate of capital stock has increased from the average annual rate of 1 1.5% since the reform and opening up to about 12.8%. The growth rate of total factor productivity is close to the average annual level of 3% since the reform and opening up, and the construction of domestic infrastructure and major projects has been significantly strengthened. Bottlenecks such as coal, electricity and oil transportation have been significantly eased, and the supply capacity supporting economic growth has become more relaxed. The potential production capacity is about 10.5%, which is higher than the average potential growth rate of 9.5% in the 28 years since the reform and opening up.
Judging from the actual economic growth factors, the international and domestic environment will still be conducive to the rapid economic growth of China next year.
First, although the international oil price continues to fluctuate at a high level, the monetary policies of major economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe are tightening, and the growth rate of the world economy will slow down, the world economy will maintain steady growth in 2007. According to the predictions of the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other institutions, the world economy will increase by about 4.9% in 2007, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than that in 2005 and still higher than 1.990-2000. The growth rate of world trade volume reached about 7%, and the growth momentum was good; Transnational direct investment continued to pick up, the scale of mergers and acquisitions expanded significantly, and the focus shifted to controlling strategic industries and markets; Generally speaking, the development of the world economy is conducive to the sustained growth of China's foreign trade and the stability of the scale of foreign investment. At the same time, China's rapid economic development has become an important driving force for regional and even global economic development.
Second, new breakthroughs have been made in the reform of key areas and links in China, and the institutional and institutional environment for economic development has gradually improved. In recent year, comprehensive rural reform with township institutions, rural compulsory education and county and township financial management system as that main content has made progress, the strategic adjustment of state-owned economy has achieved results, the joint-stock reform of state-owned commercial bank has taken important steps, the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has been implemented smoothly, the share-trading reform of listed companies has been steadily promoted, the pace of government function transformation has been accelerated, and the price reform of resource products has made progress. These reforms will promote the economic development of China.
Third, China is still in the stage of rapid economic development driven by the accelerated upgrading of consumption structure and industrial structure. The process of industrialization, urbanization, marketization and internationalization has been accelerated, and the vitality of endogenous economic growth oriented by economic system reform and structural upgrading has been further enhanced, basically forming a virtuous circle of upgrading urban consumption structure, upgrading industrial structure, enhancing independent investment ability of enterprises, increasing employment, accelerating urbanization process and further upgrading consumption structure. The supporting capacity of infrastructure and basic industries to economic development will be further improved, and the bottleneck of coal, electricity and oil transportation will be basically eliminated in the medium term.
Fourth, China will continue to maintain the continuity and stability of macro-control policies, implement prudent fiscal policies and monetary policies, strengthen the coordination of fiscal policies, monetary policies, industrial policies, land policies and environmental protection policies, and comprehensively use economic, legal and necessary administrative means to reasonably control investment growth, raise consumption levels, and alleviate the imbalance of international payments.
Considering the above factors, China's economy will continue to maintain a high growth trend in 2007, and the national economy is expected to grow by 9.5%- 10%. Although it is lower than the potential economic level, it is still in the stage of prosperity in the economic growth cycle.
2. The total social supply and demand are basically balanced, and the price level has risen slightly.
In 2007, China's economy as a whole will show a pattern that the potential production capacity is greater than the actual economic growth rate, and the overall price level will not rise sharply, and there will be no deflation.
First of all, although the grain output reached more than 980 billion Jin in 2006, and the grain supply and demand were basically balanced, the international grain price rose steadily, and the minimum grain purchase price would support the market grain price to a certain extent, and the grain price was basically stable.
Secondly, the state will continue to improve the price mechanism for the effective utilization of resource products and environmental protection, and rationalize the prices of resource products such as land, oil, natural gas, coal, electricity and fresh water, which will increase the production cost of its downstream products and raise the prices of some means of production products.
Third, the service price will still be the main driving force for the rise of consumer prices. Some important service prices in China, such as education, culture, tourism and medical care, are all regulated or guided by the government, and the pressure of price increase has not been completely released.
Fourth, liquidity in the banking system's surplus will push up prices. In the final analysis, inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Since the beginning of this year, due to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, more RMB has been passively invested in foreign exchange, and the broad money supply has maintained a rapid growth of about 17%. According to the relationship between money supply and nominal income and prices, the current money supply will support the price increase next year. It is estimated that the consumer price will increase by about 65438 0.5% in 2007, which is basically the same as that in 2006.
3. The role of economic growth in promoting employment has been enhanced, and the employment pressure has continued unabated.
In 2007, the surplus of total labor force and structural shortage will coexist, and the pressure of total employment will continue to increase. In 2007, about 25 million people in cities and towns in China needed employment, and the urban labor force increased by120,000, including 3.9 million college graduates, 2.7 million secondary vocational school graduates, 265,438+million junior and senior high school graduates who did not enter higher education that year, more than 500,000 retired soldiers and 2.6 million rural laborers. Moreover, with the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization, a large number of rural surpluses have emerged. It is estimated that in 2007, about100,000 new jobs will be created, and about 2 million laid-off and unemployed people will be re-employed. The total number of unemployed people in cities and towns has increased, and the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns has reached about 4.6%.
4. Foreign exchange reserves continue to increase, and the trend of RMB appreciation will not change.
On July 2, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. The smooth implementation of the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism has laid a foundation for the further improvement of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and the transition of RMB exchange rate to a reasonable and balanced level.
Balance of payments theory, asset market theory and purchasing power parity theory are the main theories about exchange rate determination. First of all, judging from the purchasing power, since 1994 implemented the managed floating exchange rate system of RMB, China's economic growth rate is about 9.8%, which is 2.5 times that of the United States, 5.5 times that of Japan and 4.8 times that of the European Union. The inflation rate is lower than that of the United States and the European Union, and the growth rate of labor productivity in China is much higher than that of the United States, Japan and Europe, which means that the purchasing power of RMB is increasing relative to the US dollar, Japanese yen and euro. Since the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism last year, the RMB has appreciated by 5.7% against the US dollar and 10% against the Japanese yen, but it is still depreciating against the euro, the British pound and the Korean won, and the nominal effective exchange rate of the RMB is basically stable, so the current RMB exchange rate level is still underestimated. Secondly, from the perspective of international payments, domestic foreign exchange supply is obviously greater than demand, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves is too large. The trade surplus of goods in 2007 will remain at150 billion dollars on the basis of exceeding170 billion dollars in 2006, and the direct investment projects will still maintain a large surplus, reaching about 50 billion dollars. By the end of 2007, China's foreign exchange reserves will increase by about $250 billion on the basis of the increase of about $250 billion in 2006, reaching 65,438+. Third, from the perspective of interest rate parity, the spread between China and the United States has decreased, and the pressure of RMB appreciation has increased. Since June 2004, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points for the seventh time in a row. By the end of August 2006, the federal funds rate reached 5.25%, the highest level in four years. Since the second quarter of 2006, the American economy began to slow down, and the current interest rate hike cycle in the United States is coming to an end. Although the monetary policies of Japan and the euro zone will be further tightened, with the two interest rate hikes of RMB in 2006 and the difference in price level, the actual spread between China and the United States, Japan and the euro zone has narrowed, and the pressure of RMB appreciation has been increasing. On the whole, the trend of RMB appreciation in 2007 will not change.
5. Consumer demand grew steadily and the consumption structure continued to upgrade.
There are many favorable factors for the rapid growth of consumer demand in 2007.
First of all, farmers' income has maintained rapid growth for three consecutive years, and the rural consumption structure has been steadily upgraded. In 2006, the per capita net income of farmers increased by 6% on the basis of 6.8% and 6.2% in 2004 and 2005 respectively. The rapid growth of farmers' income plays an important role in changing farmers' income expectation and expanding consumption expenditure. At present, the second consumption structure upgrade of rural household appliances has expanded from coastal areas to more and more inland areas.
Secondly, the income of urban residents continues to increase, and the consumption of middle-income class shows an increasing trend. The adjustment of civil servants' salary structure in 2006 will improve the income level of civil servants, help expand the income of the middle class, and tap their development and enjoyment of consumption potential.
Third, the gradual improvement of the social security system is conducive to expanding immediate consumption. The national financial expenditure pays more attention to improving the social security system, and has introduced more stringent measures to stop arbitrary charges in education and the difficulty and high cost of medical treatment, popularized the new rural cooperative medical system, and improved the compulsory education policy. With the continuous improvement of various social security systems, residents are constantly optimistic about their future expectations, and consumer demand will continue to be released.
In 2007, consumption growth also faced some unfavorable factors. First of all, due to high real estate prices and regulatory policies, housing consumption continues to be suppressed. Second, due to the rising price of agricultural materials, the effect of state subsidies on increasing the income of grain farmers is weakened, and it is more difficult for farmers to continue to grow rapidly. It is predicted that the retail sales of social consumer goods will increase by 13% in 2007, and the actual growth will be about 1 1%, and service consumption will pick up.
6. The growth rate of investment declined steadily, and the investment structure was further improved.
In 2007, the pressure of investment rebound remained high. First of all, the investment under construction is too large. In 2006, the investment scale of projects under construction reached more than 30 trillion yuan, equivalent to the workload of three years in that year; Secondly, the internal mechanism of investment expansion has not changed. In some places, investment growth is still an important indicator of performance appraisal. In some places, big projects are linked to performance appraisal, and creating a good atmosphere for the 17th National Congress will also increase investment. Third, the source of funds is relatively loose. In recent years, the benefits of enterprises have improved, the profits of industrial enterprises have increased substantially, and the investment funds of enterprises are very abundant. The rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves and excessive RMB foreign exchange will also increase the level of money supply and abundant credit funds. However, on the whole, in 2007, China's fixed assets investment will show a steady decline in the rapid growth. First, the central government's control over investment in fixed assets will not be reduced. The state will continue to focus on controlling new construction projects, insist on strictly controlling the two gates of land and credit, and strictly enforce market access thresholds such as environmental protection, technology and safety to prevent investment demand from rebounding again. Second, the problem of overcapacity in some processing industries still exists, and the profit growth rate is not high, which will inevitably reduce the willingness of enterprises to invest and restrict the investment expansion of some industries; Thirdly, with the intensification of trade frictions and the adjustment of processing trade policies, the pace of foreign businessmen's transfer of processing industries to China has slowed down, which will have a certain inhibitory effect on fixed assets investment next year.
Based on various factors, in 2007, the investment of the whole society increased by 22%, which was 5 percentage points lower than that in 2006.
7. The export growth rate has slowed down, and the trade surplus is still large.
From the perspective of exports, the slowdown of the world economy and world trade has brought some negative effects to China's exports. Huge foreign exchange reserves and huge trade surplus will become the main problems facing the sustainable development of China's foreign trade, and the trade friction situation facing China is even more severe. The adjustment of RMB exchange rate mechanism and RMB appreciation will affect the export growth in 2007. Measures to restrict the export of "high energy consumption, high pollution and resource products" will also have a restraining effect on China's export. However, after years of development, China's export product structure has been continuously upgraded, and the competitiveness of export products has been significantly improved. In addition, in recent years, investment has formed a huge domestic processing and production capacity, and the competition in the domestic market has obviously intensified, forcing enterprises to strive to expand exports. In 2007, China's exports will continue to grow rapidly. From the perspective of imports, the overall shortage of energy, raw materials, advanced technology and key equipment will promote the gradual recovery of import growth, and the appreciation of RMB will increase the demand for imported products. Comprehensive analysis shows that the growth rate of imports and exports will reach about 15% in 2007, and the trade surplus will be about150 billion US dollars, so the pulling effect of net exports on GDP growth will be weakened.
8. Implement a prudent fiscal policy and adjust the focus of fiscal policy.
China's economy has developed steadily and rapidly for four consecutive years. The key to maintain this good development momentum is to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies. At the same time, in the face of problems existing in economic development, such as excessive investment growth, fragile agricultural foundation, and prominent social development problems, the focus of fiscal policy is to appropriately reduce the fiscal deficit, narrow the issuance scale of long-term construction bonds, optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, and support the construction of new countryside and the development of social undertakings on the basis of vigorously increasing revenue and reducing expenditure. First of all, increase support for the construction of new socialist countryside, promote farmers' income and enhance their consumption power. Secondly, increase the financial investment in compulsory education and public medical care, reduce the excessive burden of residents' education and medical care, and appropriately raise the minimum living security level in urban and rural areas. Thirdly, the national debt project funds and the investment in the central budget are mainly invested in key infrastructure projects during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, which is conducive to expanding the consumption of urban and rural residents. In 2007, the fiscal revenue increased by about 15%, the central fiscal deficit could be stabilized at about 250 billion yuan, and the scale of issuing national long-term construction bonds was 50 billion yuan.
9. Fine-tune monetary policy in a timely and appropriate manner to stabilize the growth of money and credit.
The basic goal of monetary policy in 2007 is to comprehensively use various monetary policy tools, strengthen liquidity management, reasonably control the total amount of money and credit, keep prices basically stable, and alleviate the contradiction of unbalanced international payments. At the same time, further optimize the credit structure, moderately control investment growth, and actively expand consumer demand. We will continue to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, and actively explore and expand the channels and ways of using foreign exchange reserves. Flexible use of open market operations to hedge foreign exchange holdings, and strive to maintain a moderate total liquidity in the banking system, reasonable structure and basically stable money market interest rates; Guide commercial banks to treat the loan needs of different regions, different industries and different enterprises differently through credit policies, ensure the reasonable and normal capital needs of enterprises, and continue to increase loan support for rural and small and medium-sized enterprises, especially some growth enterprises; On the basis of constantly improving the personal credit system, we will vigorously develop personal consumer credit business. It is preliminarily predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of broad money will reach about 16%, that of narrow money will reach about 16%, and the scale of new loans will be controlled at about 3 trillion yuan.
10, to speed up the system reform and improve the implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development's system and mechanism guarantee.
Reform is the driving force of development and the fundamental guarantee of scientific development. The main task of the current reform is to focus on the transformation of government functions and strive to promote the reform of the administrative management system. It is necessary to fully implement administration according to law, further reform the administrative examination and approval system, straighten out the relationship between the government and enterprises, institutions and market intermediary organizations, and effectively transfer government functions to economic regulation, market supervision, social management and public services; Further deepen enterprise reform with the focus on straightening out property rights relations. Continue to promote the strategic adjustment of the structure and layout of the state-owned economy, intensify the reform of wholly state-owned enterprises and monopoly industries, and promote the diversification of investment subjects and property rights. Further improve the supervision and management system of state-owned assets and speed up the budget system of state-owned capital operation; Focusing on promoting the construction of the public finance system, we will continue to deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system. It is necessary to improve the central-local financial transfer payment system and straighten out the financial management system below the provincial level. Steadily promote the tax reform, unify the income tax rate of domestic and foreign-funded enterprises, reform the resource tax system, and levy fuel tax in a timely manner to create conditions for the transformation of value-added tax and the implementation of property tax; Deepen the reform of the financial system with the focus on improving the corporate governance structure and optimizing the financial structure. It is necessary to consolidate and deepen the reform achievements of state-owned commercial banks, promote the transformation of policy banks into development banks, and steadily develop small and medium-sized financial enterprises of various ownership systems; Focusing on improving market functions, we will promote the reform of the price formation mechanism of important resource products and production factors. Further rationalize the prices of water, electricity, coal, oil and land, establish a price formation mechanism that reflects the scarcity of resources and the relationship between production supply and demand, and vigorously rectify and standardize the market order. (The author is the deputy director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center)