Since the implementation of reform and opening up in China, the economy has sustained rapid growth. From 1979 to 2004, the average economic growth rate of China was 9.6%. In 2004, 2005 and 2006, it was as high as 10. 1%, 9.9% and 10.7% respectively, which was much higher than the world average annual growth rate of 2.8% in the same period. In 2006, China's GDP reached 20.94 trillion yuan, ranking fourth in the world. In 2006, the per capita GDP exceeded $2,000. This growth rate is unique in the history of human economy. ?
First, the theory of economic growth?
Smith, the originator of classical economic theory, believes that there are two ways to promote economic growth: one is to increase the number of productive labor; The second is to improve labor efficiency. Of the two ways, the improvement of labor efficiency is more important, and the improvement of labor productivity mainly depends on the degree of division of labor and the amount of capital accumulation, so division of labor and cooperation and capital accumulation are the basic driving forces to promote economic growth. Ricardo believes that the long-term economic growth trend will stop under the law of diminishing returns. Malthus believes that population growth and output growth are not synchronized, and economic growth expressed by per capita output will be limited by population growth, which depends on per capita income. Outside the economic system, policies should be adopted to limit population growth from exceeding economic growth. It can be seen that classical economists have pointed out the motives of economic growth: capital, technology, land and division of labor, and also noticed the particularity of natural resources in growth. ?
/kloc-in the second half of the 0/9th century, the neoclassical economic growth theory represented by Marshall rose. Marshall believes that the increase of population, wealth (capital), the improvement of intelligence level and the introduction of industrial organizations (division of labor and cooperation) will improve industrial production and promote economic growth. The overall influence of these factors on manufacturers' production is increasing income. Therefore, economic growth is associated with income increase. Schumpeter used the concept of "innovation" to explain the economic development of capitalist society. He believes that innovation is a new combination of production factors realized by entrepreneurs, including introducing new products, adopting new production methods, opening up new markets, obtaining new resources and establishing new organizations. Based on Keynes's "effective demand" theory, Harold and Thomas independently established the theory of economic growth, that is, Harold-Thomas model. The key assumption of this model is that labor and capital can't replace each other. Under the condition that the savings rate and population growth rate remain unchanged and there is no technological progress and capital depreciation, it is concluded that the economic growth rate is G=s/v, where s is the savings rate and v is the ratio of capital to output. The conclusion of the model is that the economic growth rate increases with the increase of savings rate and decreases with the increase of capital-output ratio. Solo, Swan, Meade and Samuelson put forward the neoclassical growth model, the core of which is three assumptions about the nature of the total production function, namely, the constant scale income, the diminishing marginal income of production factors and the substitutability between production factors. Solow's growth model holds that the process of economic growth is embodied in the process of capital accumulation, and the factor that determines capital accumulation is the rate of return on investment. Under the condition of constant scale income, per capita income only depends on the ratio of capital to labor. Only when this ratio keeps rising can per capita income continue to grow. On the other hand, the rate of return on investment is equal to the marginal rate of return on capital. Like per capita income, the marginal return of capital depends only on the ratio of capital to labor. Due to the existence of the law of diminishing marginal returns of factors, the marginal return of capital will decrease with the increase of the ratio of capital to labor. Solow and others also pointed out that the decisive factor of economic growth, in the long run, is technological progress, rather than the accumulation of capital and the increase of labor force, so Solow's growth model can not guarantee long-term sustained economic growth. ?
In the middle and late 1980s, the new theory of economic growth began to take shape, which was marked by two landmark papers: Increasing Income and Long-term Growth by Romer 1986 and On the Mechanism of Economic Development by Lucas 1988. Romer put forward a competitive balanced growth model, which has spillover effect, the return of material output decreases and the return of new knowledge production increases. He believes that factors of production should include four aspects: capital, unskilled labor, human capital and new ideas. Among them, new ideas are the main factor of economic growth. Lucas constructed the theoretical framework of endogenous growth based on three models: material capital accumulation and technological change, human capital and specialized human capital. He brought human capital into the economic growth model as an independent factor, combined Schulz's human capital with Solow's technological progress with a more microscopic and quantitative analysis method, regarded the accumulation of human capital as the decisive factor of long-term economic growth, and internalized and materialized it into personal and professional human capital. He believes that only this special and specialized accumulation of human capital is the real source of growth. ?
Second, an analysis of the factors that promote China's economic growth?
All kinds of economic growth theories have their own characteristics and limitations. We must combine theory with practice to analyze China's economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, the sustained economic growth in China is the result of various comprehensive factors, mainly in the following aspects:
1, institutional factors. Institutional factors are the environmental factors of a country's economic growth. Smith first saw the importance of institutional factors, and the new economic growth theory also discussed the "soft" dynamic factors of the system. System is one of the main endogenous variables of economic growth. Kuznets believes that the development of production depends on technological progress, and the role of technological progress depends on the adjustment of corresponding systems and ideologies. Institutional factors are more decisive for China's economic growth in recent 20 years. During this period, China experienced four institutional innovations: from 65438 to 0978, the household contract responsibility system was gradually implemented in most rural areas of China; Since 1980s, the state has implemented the policy of supporting and protecting the development of non-state-owned economy. 1992 began to establish a modern enterprise system; The continuous reform of property right system since 2003. The market-oriented economic system reform has produced unparalleled institutional effects, rapidly liberated and developed productive forces, and made China's economy enter an unprecedented golden growth period after the founding of the People's Republic of China. ?
2. Consumption factors. Consumption is the main driving force to promote economic growth. China has a vast domestic market and huge growth potential, which is the main reason for China's sustained economic growth. Before 1984, China was in the stage of consumption expansion, and the basic feature of residents' consumption was to solve the problem of food and clothing. People have a strong demand for almost all kinds of necessities, which is concentrated in the plane expansion under the original consumption structure. After 1984, China residents began to enter the stage of quality affluence with the pursuit of consumption quality and grade as the central content. This stage is characterized by the continuous decline of Engel's coefficient. In 2005, the Engel coefficient of urban residents in China was 36.7%, and that of rural residents was 45.5%. Among residents' consumption, the proportion of food, clothing, household equipment, supplies and services decreased, while the proportion of medical care, transportation, communication, education, culture, entertainment and residence increased. Among them, the proportion of transportation and communication consumption increased the fastest, followed by education, cultural and entertainment services and housing. In recent years, residents' demand for high-priced consumer goods such as cars and houses has gradually increased. Consumption has become the basic force of industrial structure upgrading and national economic structure transformation, and plays a decisive role in China's economic growth. For example, in the 1980s, the average contribution rate of consumption to GDP was as high as 68%. After the 1990s, investment and external demand increased rapidly, and the role of consumer demand declined, but consumer demand still played an important role, reaching an average of 55%. ?
3. Investment factors. Economic growth must have an increase in capital. In economic growth, the general rule is that investment is greater than the increase of population, that is, the increase of per capita capital. In the initial stage of economic growth, the contribution of investment is relatively large. Many economists regard capital accumulation as 10 ~ 15% of national income as the premise of economic take-off, and regard increasing capital as the primary task to realize economic growth. Under the current specific national conditions of China, investment is the main driving force of the "troika" of economic growth. Investment includes government investment, private investment and foreign investment. For a long time, government investment has been the main body of investment in China. The government has greatly promoted economic growth through macro policies such as infrastructure construction and the issuance of national debt. Private investment in China is also on the rise. Judging from the current data, excluding foreign investment, government investment accounts for less than 20% of the total investment, and private investment accounts for more than 80% of the total investment, nearly half of which is non-state-owned economic investment. With the improvement of personal income level, the corresponding improvement of private capital accumulation ability, the improvement of financial system and the expansion of private financing channels, private capital began to expand rapidly. Foreign investment is growing at a high speed. In the past 20 years, China's foreign investment has increased from less than $654.38+billion in the early 1980s to $60.6 billion in 2004, an increase of more than 60 times in 20 years. Domestic investment is closely related to savings, and the high savings rate for many years has played an important role in maintaining a high investment growth rate in China, thus supporting the rapid economic growth. ?
4. Trade factors. Trade is an important factor of economic growth and the inevitable result of social division of labor and production development. All kinds of economic growth theories attach great importance to the promotion of trade to economic growth. From 65438 to 0978, China implemented the open policy, gradually breaking the fragmentation caused by regional restrictions and local protection, and gradually forming a unified and open domestic market. The allocation of resources throughout the country has greatly improved the efficiency of resource utilization and promoted economic development. China's foreign trade has significantly changed and improved in quantity and quality. Under the guidance of the strategy of "winning by quality" and "prospering trade through science and technology", China's foreign trade export has achieved extraordinary growth for more than 20 years, forming a large number of export commodities, with more than 7,000 products exported abroad. Over the years, China has introduced a large number of foreign advanced technologies, which has promoted the technological transformation and structural adjustment of many industries. The growth of foreign trade not only stimulates the total social demand and promotes economic growth, but also enables a large number of enterprises to learn to abide by international economic practices and pursue efficiency and profit in participating in international competition, thus prompting the country to further reform the economic system, improve the legal system, change government functions and change macroeconomic management methods to meet the needs of opening up. ?
5. Knowledge factor. Knowledge is the driving force to promote economic growth, and it is also a special factor in the new economic growth theory. According to the new economic growth theory, knowledge has no materiality and can be copied, used and disseminated. With the expansion of the scale of use and the expansion of the market scope, the value of knowledge increases in proportion to the scale, even at a higher proportion; "New knowledge, new ideas" can rearrange the existing resource allocation, existing system settings, existing production processes and so on. , thus improving labor productivity. Economic growth is produced from the application of this "new idea": making the production process from inefficient to efficient, making the products from ordinary to novel, and making the system that does not stimulate people's enthusiasm extremely efficient. Since the reform and opening up, China's technological innovation system (including technology introduction and technology transformation) has been greatly developed. In recent years, China's economic structure is in the upgrading stage, and the development of scientific research has provided new growth points for economic growth. Especially now, vigorously developing high-tech industries has provided new development space for national economic development. Before 1990s, the contribution rate of technological progress to China's economic growth was low, and it was negative between 1979~ 1982 and 1989~ 1990, but it increased obviously after 1990s, and the contribution rate of technological progress was higher than 30% after 1992. ?
6. Human capital factor. Lucas' new economic growth theory regards human capital as the decisive factor of long-term economic growth, and holds that only the accumulation of specialized human capital is the real source of growth. The practice of economic development at home and abroad proves that human capital is the most fundamental and potential factor to promote modern economic growth. Increasing the investment and accumulation of human capital will contribute to the cultivation and development of high-end talents and increase the contribution of knowledge elements to economic growth. The increase of human capital is mainly the improvement of labor quality, including the increase of labor quantity. The improvement of the quality of the labor force is the improvement of the cultural, technical and health level of the labor force. Human capital is the unity of quantity and quality of labor force. In the early stage of economic growth in 1980s, China achieved great success by relying on labor-intensive industries. With the development of education, the quality of the labor force has also been greatly improved. At present, there are more than 50 million workers with college education in China, and the gross enrollment rate of universities reached 19% in 2004. Since the reform and opening up, the contribution rate of labor input in China's economic growth has been relatively stable, with the exception of 1990, all below 20%, and since the 1990s, all below 10%. This shows that the accumulation of human capital in China is not enough and needs to be further explored. ?
Based on the above analysis of the six factors that promote China's economic growth, we can draw the following conclusions: First, China's economic growth is the result of the combined action of comprehensive factors, which requires us to carry out macro-control on the economy from a strategic height and a far-sighted perspective; Second, various factors have different forces on China's economic growth in different periods and fields, which requires us to pay attention to the concrete analysis of specific issues in macro-control and make timely and appropriate structural adjustments. Looking into the future, after nearly 30 years of rapid growth, China's economy is still in the stage of steady growth. Judging from some long-term factors, China still has the conditions and potential to maintain rapid growth in the first half of the 20th century. This is mainly reflected in China's high domestic savings rate, high growth rate of foreign investment, high growth rate of human capital and total factor productivity, favorable conditions for joining the World Trade Organization, huge business opportunities for rural urbanization and small town construction, and broad market, all of which provide broad space for economic growth.