If you can't figure it out, St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov recently launched a project that can release your imagination.
"The government plans to turn some closed car factories in St Petersburg into teaching sites." Governor Beglov announced at a meeting of St. Petersburg National Ocean Technology University that "students from technical colleges can practice there in the future."
However, it is not a word to regard industrial parks as educational venues. It depends on the negotiations between the government and car companies. Imagine whether it can land.
There are three companies in St. Petersburg, Toyota, Nissan and Hyundai. At present, one company has accepted the government agreement, but Governor Beglov did not disclose which one.
"This will be the first such project in Russia."
Governor Beglov's words make people think: Will there be the second, third and fourth such projects in Russia?
The answer is:
There will probably be. Western sanctions have led to the outflow of car companies, but the factory is still there, and such a large-scale asset cannot be idle.
Since Putin ordered military action against Ukraine, Russia has been sanctioned more than 5,532 times, surpassing Iran in one fell swoop and becoming the country with the most sanctions in the world.
Seven major Russian banks were kicked out of SWIFT, and the export of semiconductor technology, aerospace technology and even medical products to Russia was restricted to varying degrees, although the Geneva Convention clearly stipulated that medical services were not subject to sanctions.
After "overthrowing" Russia, it was necessary to set foot on the land of thousands of feet, so Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake was labeled as "poisonous weeds". The American people spontaneously poured vodka into the sewer; Even when a country is sanctioned, every cat and tree in that country bears the original sin. The International Cat Federation prohibits its national institutions from breeding or raising Russian blue cats, and the "Turgenev Tree" is prohibited from participating in the "European Tree of the Year" selection; I wonder if one day Mendeleev's periodic table will also be the target of sanctions.
Under repeated sanctions, it is not certain that Russia has lost some vitality. Anyway, Russia's automobile industry is half dead.
Manufacturer: It is difficult to cook without rice.
Manufacturers first felt the unbearable weight of the war, and even AvtoVAZ, Russia's largest automobile company, was overwhelmed.
AvtoVAZ was privatized in the 1990s, and 20 16 became a subsidiary of French Renault. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Avtovaz stopped production due to the shortage of spare parts and lost its French partner Renault. After the nationalization in May last year, the company began to produce Rada, but the large-scale layoffs still exposed the shrinking trend of the company.
In the month when it was nationalized, AvtoVAZ proposed that the company would pay a one-time payment as compensation, and hoped that the workers in the Izhevsk factory would voluntarily resign, because the company would concentrate more production activities in the togliatti main factory 600 kilometers away, although according to insiders, the togliatti factory was already a "broken toy".
But in any case, it is good news to be able to resume work compared with those factories that have completely stopped working in Russia.
Such as the modern St. Petersburg factory.
In June 5438+10 this year, Zheng Xianzhe, the head of the purchasing department of Hyundai Russia Branch, took the word "anxiety" to work all day.
"We are trying to start work every day." The company has also repeatedly negotiated with relevant departments of the Russian government, but the resumption of production and work is still far away.
In fact, in August last year, the delivery volume of the modern St. Petersburg factory was zero. Without production, the St. Petersburg factory became a bottomless pit for burning money. At first, Hyundai was unwilling to give up this huge market, and monitored the dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in real time, expecting to resume normal operations as soon as possible.
Unfortunately, Hyundai, Nissan, Toyota and other car companies all got the same script: stop production, wait and see, lay off employees, transfer factories and evacuate the Russian market.
In March this year, the negotiation of selling the modern St. Petersburg factory has come to an end, and there has been another crack in the Russian automobile market.
Car companies piled up and left, and the entire auto market fell into an unprecedented collapse. On February 1 day of this year, Reuters's data showed that in 2022, Russian automobile production decreased by 67% year-on-year. Last May was the time when Russian automobile production dropped the most, which actually reached 97%. The last time the auto market entered the ice valley was when the Soviet Union just disintegrated.
Only after more than two months of war, the output plummeted, and the negative effects of decoupling from the West were transmitted too quickly.
Talking about one reason is really complicated. Russian supply chain has a serious tendency of long-term external dependence; Western sanctions against Russia prohibit or complicate the import of key auto parts; Russia's infrastructure is backward; Russian auto companies use real-time inventory management to improve efficiency ... n The reins twisted by more than one straw are enough to strangle the Russian camel, even if it doesn't die, it can at least temporarily suffocate him.
Factory worker: How can there be finished eggs under the nest?
The wheel of war ran over the Russian automobile market. Although the manufacturer lost sales, profits, assets and market, the workers in the garage clearly heard the sound of broken bones.
Mikhail, who worked in Antoinette, received only two-thirds of his original salary, like all the workers in the company, during the suspension of production in Antoinette.
AvtoVAZ's monthly salary was originally 47,000 rubles, but it dropped to about 30,000 rubles after the production was stopped, while the normal salary of Samara where Mikhail lived was about 40,000 rubles.
In order to make a living, michal had to do odd jobs to earn extra money, because "factory workers have little savings, and most people live on salaries."
Miihar has undertaken some work for the local government, such as dismantling old public facilities, mowing grass, digging flower beds and painting fire hydrants. , reward 13800 rubles every 40 hours.
"Local authorities organized these jobs to slow people out of the city, while others served as food couriers." Some people are loading and unloading goods, and those with taxi driver's licenses take driving a taxi as a part-time job.
Although life is getting harder and harder than before, Miihar feels blessed by God because he has only two children and can eat potatoes for dinner. Although he has no bread, more importantly, he has no loan to pay back, which is good.
Colleague Alexander Kniazev's situation is obviously not as good as his. Alexander Kniazev survived the suspension of production, but lost his job when he returned to work.
He was a member of AvtoVAZ and was fired when he transferred production to togliatti's factory.
"They don't need so many technicians anymore", so the company gave the workers two choices. First of all, the company will pay a severance payment of 200,000 rubles when they leave their jobs. Second, stay in the Izhevsk factory and continue to sweat profusely in the workshop of stamping body parts.
"This is a choice between bad and bad." Alexander Kniazev said that he chose to leave the company and intended to find the next position.
But the job is not so easy to find.
Although Alexander Beglov, the governor of St. Petersburg, once said that after car companies from "unfriendly countries" leave St. Petersburg, companies from "friendly countries" will make up for their shortcomings.
But it's easier said than done.
"Car factories are designed to produce specific models of cars, and cannot be simply modified or modified by another company to produce cars. The sentence "China's current models are far from those in the 2000s" not only smashed the cake painted by Governor Beglov, but also shattered many people's illusions.
What's more, under western sanctions, the disposable income of Russians has decreased and the middle class has shrunk. Even companies from "friendly countries" can hardly justify spending a lot of money to build production lines for such a market. Then how can a man like Alexander Kniazev have so many jobs?
As a result, countless Russian "Alexander Kniazev" had to choose between "bad" and "not bad", and then faced the choice of "starving to death or starving to death".
Joining the army is one of the few ways to get rid of poverty in Russia at present. Although it is not very attractive, it is a way out in a desperate situation, and many car factory workers did think of this way out.
Mikhail said: "One day I talked to other factory workers about Ukraine after the shift change. Many colleagues' savings are running out. They joked that they would soon' fight' according to the contract. "
"They said,' If they are killed, at least their children will get 7 million rubles.' But this is just' humor', just like when a person is hysterical, they are scared, but they are laughing. "
However, the absurdity lies in the fact that the workers in the automobile factory are about to lose the last piece of bread in their mouths, but last June, official data showed that the unemployment rate in Russia was at the lowest level in history, at 3.9%. Based on this, Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov refuted any suggestion that the war caused the unemployment rate to rise sharply.
3.9% of the data is obviously inconsistent with reality. Ruben Enikolopov, an economics professor at Moscow Institute of New Economics, pointed out that the plight of the automobile industry was covered by "hidden unemployment", and workers were not fired, but took indefinite vacations.
"In Russia, due to the particularity of the Russian labor market such as vacation practice, the economic crisis will not lead to large-scale unemployment." Enikolopov said.
Indeed, on February 24 last year, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Volkswagen, Nissan, Hyundai, Mitsubishi and other enterprises suspended their business in Russia and gave workers two-thirds of their statutory wages. Half a year after the end of the war, according to the statistics of Reuters, the outflow of automobile enterprises has caused more than 14000 Russian automobile workers to take vacations.
As the war continues, the future of these workers is full of uncertainty.
In the past few decades, the Russian automobile industry has been regarded as a beacon by many foreign investors, and this industry once became one of the largest "employers" in Russia.
According to Russian government data, in 2020, the automobile industry employed about 400,000 people and indirectly supported about 4 million workers. Now that the building is about to collapse, I wonder how many workers will become crushed ants.
This situation must be controlled, so sergey sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, announced on his blog that Renault's Moscow factory would be used to produce "Moscow" cars.
"The foreign boss decided to close the Renault Moscow factory, which is his right, but we can't let thousands of workers lose their jobs." In addition to the closure of automobile factories and the unemployment of workers, there is another problem that needs to be solved urgently in the Russian automobile market-"even if cars can be produced, it is difficult to find people who can afford them."
An unaffordable car
Anton, who works in a big Russian company, is a big fan of European cars.
After saving enough money, he finally snapped up a second-hand Skoda in February last year at 65438+.
Although the price of this used car is 2.5 million rubles, which is nearly 6.5438+0 million higher than that of a year ago, he still took out the money without saying anything.
The stock of second-hand European cars in the Russian market is already very tight. Anton can grab a second-hand European car with a low mileage, which makes him feel lucky.
Anton said: "The new car is only the patent of the rich now, unless it is LADA or other domestic cars." If he wants to buy a brand-new Skoda, he will have to spend another 1 10,000 rubles, which is simply not the price he can afford.
The soaring price of new cars has brought a wave of speculation in the auto market: people who have the ability to buy cars are crazy, just to resell them to others to earn a wave of price difference after the price rises.
Therefore, Dmitry Popov, an automobile expert and expert of St. Petersburg Traffic Management Bureau, had to stand up and say, "Now we must keep calm and see how the market will develop in the next three or four months. There is no need to buy a car crazily. The price of this car has doubled, it will not go up again, and it is likely to rebound. "
Of course, not everyone buys a car for investment. Some people just panic. Who knows if it will be more expensive if they don't buy it today? And there are many people in Russia who are loyal to European cars like Anton. They placed orders overnight just to grab a few European cars left in China.
The price of new cars is scary, and cheaper used cars have become consumers' first choice.
According to the data of the analysis organization Autostat, in 2022, the expenditure on new cars in Russia decreased by more than half, and the sales volume decreased by 58.8%. Spending on used cars increased by 65,438+04%, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total car sales, while in 2026,5438+0, the proportion was still 55%.
However, the fiery heat of used cars is difficult to save the overall downturn of the Russian auto market.
Last year, Russia's inflation rate reached 1 1.9%, the actual disposable income of Russians decreased by about 1%, while the average selling price of new cars increased by 17% to 2.33 million rubles, and that of used cars increased by 32% to about 900,000 rubles.
As a result of the superposition of the two, the overall expenditure on new cars and second-hand passenger cars in Russia decreased by more than 15% in 2022.
The outflow of car companies, sharp drop in output, shortage of spare parts, rising tariffs, expensive logistics, soaring car prices, avalanche of sales and the collapse of the auto market naturally alarmed Putin in the Kremlin.
He has repeatedly urged the Russian government to find ways to control the price of cars. Perhaps the government can really come up with the countermeasures to reduce the price of cars quickly, but consumers have to worry about the difficulty and expensive repair of cars in the short term.
For example, this person below.
Fix the car? Difficult!
One day in April last year, when a Skoda engine in gadzhiev cracked, his heart sank.
After the Russian-Ukrainian war, repairing cars became a matter of burning money. Even if most people can find auto parts, they can't afford them.
Gadzhiev was about to cry: "I'm in an awkward position. Repairing a car is not necessarily cheaper than buying a car. " And the accessories will take months to arrive, but he can't wait that long.
Gadzhiev owns a fleet of four cars, which he rents out to taxi drivers to maintain his comfortable life in Moscow. If we really wait a few more months, gadzhiev will undoubtedly suffer great losses.
So gadzhiev posted on the public forum to find accessories.
After that, he received dozens of phone calls, some of whom claimed to be "parts dealers", and they vowed to promise.
This article comes from the author's automobile commune, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.