Since we have been talking about vaccines for so many days, we must not miss Fosun. When it comes to COVID-19 vaccine, who has the fastest awareness and action speed must be Fosun.
However, things have developed to this day, and the result is a bit unexpected. Several domestic manufacturers who have developed their own products, whether the technical route is inactivation, recombinant protein or adenovirus vector, have already gone on the market, and they have all acted as agents early. It seems that both Fosun's mRNA and Kangtai's adenovirus are a little late.
Here, let's interpret the director's views on Fosun mRNA vaccine.
According to the previously published COVID-19 vaccine production capacity data, Sinopharm Group's production capacity can reach 3 billion doses this year; Kexing Zhongwei exceeds 2 billion doses; Kangxinuo is expected to reach 700 million doses this year and zhifei will produce 500 million doses this year; The annual inactivation capacity of Kangtai is 200 million doses, which can be increased to 600 million doses. The output of the Academy of Medical Sciences will reach 500 million to 654.38+0 billion doses.
In other words, the annual production capacity of China COVID-19 vaccine can reach 7 billion this year. Whether it is enough or not, at least, domestic vaccines are not as urgent as before, and can even be exported to other countries.
In this context, Fosun's vaccine is somewhat inferior. First of all, his vaccine is imported, and the price is relatively expensive, 698 yuan/needle. As we know, at present, COVID-19 vaccines in China are all purchased by the government. In the past, inactivation 100 was more than tens of dollars (inactivation cost was slightly higher than recombinant protein).
Dozens of dollars is enough to buy vaccines. The director thinks that the country should not have much incentive to purchase several hundred dollars/piece of vaccine. Moreover, Fosun is an agent, and the quantity is not guaranteed. Suppose many residents got the first shot and didn't get the second shot, then the calf was finished.
It should be extremely difficult for Fubitai to be listed as a kind of vaccine purchased by the government. But because it has been widely inoculated overseas, its safety and effectiveness are very good. Therefore, the director believes that Fosun's Fubitai is likely to become a self-funded second-class vaccine.
Then some friends may ask, will anyone fight like this? Isn't the government's free seedling fragrant? Why play self-broadcasting?
Remember that you don't represent the whole world, remember what we said before? Adults developed by zhifei use the tuberculosis vaccine on the market. The treatment of tuberculosis is a combination of four antibiotics for at least half a year. These four drugs, the basic version, are free and can be obtained from relevant medical staff (after all, tuberculosis is an infectious disease).
However, if it is free, it is natural to pay for it. When you get the free TB medicine, the medical staff will recommend it to you. Do you want to use this medicine? It is better to absorb. The price is xxxx.
Fosun's vaccine, as the most advanced technology, still has many advantages compared with domestic inactivation and recombination. What's more, it is now recognized by academic circles that COVID-19 will become the flu. People who have been vaccinated this year are likely to be vaccinated with new vaccines next year until COVID-19 is completely eliminated.
Then the Miao benefits of Fosun will naturally be highlighted, especially those who want to go abroad, even if the guarantee rate is 1%, they may be willing to pay this money.
What's more, Fosun also has the agency rights in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. In June 5438+this year 10, Fosun's seedlings were approved for emergency use in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, China. In March this year, they were also used in government vaccination programs in Hong Kong, China and Macau, China. Up to now, Hong Kong has purchased 7.5 million doses from Fosun, 400,000 doses from Macau and 6.5438+million doses from Taiwan Province Province, and Fosun has sold 6.5438+079 million doses.
Moreover, Fosun can learn from Kangtai and provide Pfizer with production capacity. We must know that many countries such as Africa have not seen the shadow of Miao, and domestic production capacity is guaranteed, but globally, it is still insufficient.
Therefore, you can't kill Fosun with one shot. It's not necessarily that Fu, who he represents, is so desperate this time.
Besides, do you remember Kangtai we talked about before? Although Kangtai's AstraZeneca adenovirus vector vaccine has the same problem as Fosun at present (getting up early and catching up late), in fact, compared with the income that this proxy vaccine can earn, the director thinks that Kangtai's technology of obtaining AstraZeneca adenovirus vector vaccine is more important.
Similarly, this is part of Fosun's money-making for this mRNA vaccine, and more importantly, it has obtained the exclusive technology for developing this vaccine in China. In May this year, Fosun announced the establishment of a joint venture with BioNTech to realize the localized production and commercialization of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, with an estimated annual output of 654.38+0 billion doses. If COVID-19 cooperates well, it is very likely that both parties will cooperate with other R&D products of Company B in the future.
Watson's future imagination is largely supported by the transfer of mRNA technology obtained by ABO cooperation, but the background and accumulation of ABO are still much worse than that of German company B..
Fosun, not surprisingly, COVID-19 Vaccine is only a test of its first entry into the vaccine industry, and it will inevitably attack the vaccine industry on a large scale in the future.
MRNA technology is a platform-based technology. If you master this technology, you can make many vaccines quickly and efficiently, and even use this technology to develop anti-cancer drugs.
We can look at the R&D assembly line of basic mRNA technology of Company B:
The fastest mRNA vaccine in China is Fosun, and its technology is imported. However, the fastest CAR-T therapy in China is Fosun.
On June 22 this year, Fosun Kate CAR-T therapy, a joint venture between Fosun and Kate Company (whose father is Gilead), was successfully launched. This is the first CAR-T therapy in China. As for what CAR-T is, interested friends can learn about it through the portal. The value company has already told you before, so I won't repeat it here: Hengrui Pharma's great opportunity! The new nuclear explosion product PD- 1 is expected to be released soon! And risk early warning
Like mRNA, Fosun not only obtained the agency right of this therapy in Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, but also obtained the corresponding technology transfer. In 2020, the global sales of this therapy will be 563 million US dollars (about 3.66 billion yuan) and it will show an increasing trend, while the domestic lymphoma population is already very large.
Therefore, Fosun is expected to make good profits through its first-Mover advantage.
In this therapy, Fosun's only competitor at present is Wuxi Junnuo (a joint venture between Wuxi PharmaTech and Junnuo Company), and Wuxi Mingjia's products have also been declared for listing, and it is not surprising that they were approved in the second half of this year.
In fact, a careful look at Fosun's pipeline has laid out many cutting-edge technologies and products, either through acquisitions, joint ventures or self-research. In short, the technology and products of the basic first echelon will be laid out.
Now the mRNA, CAR-T therapy, the former Da Vinci surgical robot, do the re-sharpening of medical beauty equipment. ....
Normally, you don't pay attention to it. When something was stirred up by the market, well, the market suddenly found that Fosun had already been laid out, so the market value of Fosun was rising.
Why?
In fact, the essence of Fosun is a first-class medical investment fund in the skin of medical enterprises.
At least, the director himself knows this. From this perspective, we can understand Fosun's layout. At the forefront, he has a layout; Internationalization, he has been doing it (after all, he wants to buy and sell from buy buy Global); No matter whether he can contribute income now or not, he will do it as long as the future is expected!
On the one hand, good things are constantly bought in buy buy and become their own; On the one hand, companies that can't fully hold shares, and those that can't help their existing companies in the future, sell and sell (for example, they made a lot of money by selling simcere's equity before); On the one hand, do self-research, on the other hand, do agency; While actively introducing, I went crazy to sea.
Good things are collected and become better through their own operations. If it can produce synergy with other enterprises under its control, it can be retained, but it cannot be produced by itself or completely controlled. You can sell it then.
We can see that the main driving force of Fosun's performance growth simply reflects the changes in the domestic pharmaceutical industry.
Many years ago, the company's growth depended on pharmaceutical circulation (logistics), distribution and generic drugs; Gradually developed into generic drugs and medical devices (medical circulation has completed his mission); In the past two years, the innovative drugs laid out by the company in its early years have been gradually realized, and the main growth in the future should be innovative drugs+medical devices (the days of generic drugs driving growth are basically over); In a few years, the company's long-established medical services will really break out, and perhaps it will become innovative medicine+medical services to be responsible for growth. ...
But it is precisely because of Fosun's layout like a first-class medical fund that his growth has never been steady, and even there will be repeated or no growth in the middle. Therefore, his shareholding experience is quite poor, which can be said to be a roller coaster.
When the market is in a bad mood, you will see that Fosun is not pleasing to the eye everywhere, and feel that he has this and that, which is not specific; When the market sentiment is high, you will feel that Fosun is good everywhere, or that he has this and that, which is so forward-looking!
However, even if he rides a roller coaster repeatedly in history, the bottom is always lifted up. From this perspective, regardless of the sustained and steady growth of income, Fosun will actually be longer and more risk-resistant than the Hengrui model.
The essence of Fosun is a first-class medical investment fund, which can be understood as a first-class investment fund composed of a group of people engaged in the medical industry as fund managers and researchers, and investing with the mentality of being an industry.
Only in this way can we better understand Fosun's messy business and dozens of subsidiaries. You can also better understand whether you are suitable for Fosun. Different investors and companies suitable for him are different.
Good companies need good prices and higher certainty of income. What kind of price is a good price? The value firm team spent several months polishing the simple learning course of enterprise valuation, which is very practical. In particular, the research strength of enterprises is not deep enough, and valuation cooperation is needed, so we should seize the opportunity.