Simply put:
1, now the financial market can be simply understood as a bull market, structural bull market, with the core assets of the bull market, for those who dabble in hot spots, the performance is not outstanding stock is not, do not look at the index can be up, but investors in the hands of the stock may not be able to win the index.
2, the bull market is also divided into stages, the bull market in the early financial, technology and other sectors have been the first to go out, really to the middle of the time will usher in most of the stocks of the general market, but here we need to remind investors is that the current round of the bull market and the past may be really different, junk stocks, ST shares may not be the day of the turnaround. So to recognize the status quo, embrace the hands of high-quality stocks can be steadily profit.
3, even if the bull market, the bull market also need to retrace, and retracement is not very gentle, so the risk of still need to pay attention to the point, do not think that the bull market to come can hold the stock does not move, if you do not do a good job of swinging the same will profit back to the vomit or even to the loss, the bull market losses are also more serious, at any time you need to fear of the market, more than a calm, to maintain a prudent is still needed.
4, investment is a discipline, to stand firm in the financial market, it will need to pay, do not think that the bull market do not have to pay to sit back and enjoy the benefits, learning is still more important, to be able to do to learn, to learn, to keep abreast of the times to be able to.
I don't think it's a medium-term bull market, but a short-term liquidity flood rally .
Liquidity flooding will give rise to asset bubbles, in the face of the epidemic shock, the global central bank opened the monetary policy easing, China's central bank is no exception, only the wording is different, after the New Year, cut the quota to release 1.75 trillion yuan of funds, as well as a variety of structural easing, the LPR one-year interest rate down 30 basis points, and a variety of structural lending interest rates down the fiscal subsidized loans.
Huge liquidity who can guarantee not to enter the property market stock market, the property market rose stock market rose, everyone earns liquidity flooding bubble money, rather than the development of listed companies.
A stock and U.S. stocks there is a difference, that is, the positive stock market policy accompanied by IPO refinancing reduction in volume, behind the financial support for the real economy financing, which will bring a lot of medium- and long-term negative impact, that is, the impact of the release of restricted shares, some of the garbage companies on the scene.
Short-term everyone can enjoy the bubble, provided that the seat belt is tied, good risk management, medium and long term need to be particularly cautious, once the monetary policy turn, asset bubble burst, investors will face embarrassment, recently saw a news, also exports to domestic sales, I am a little more cautious about the aftermath of the market,
Definitely a big bull market! As of today, 14 consecutive days of turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen over a trillion dollars!
Knowing that the 2015 bull market, the highest only 21 consecutive days of volume over a trillion!
From the market demand, the GEM registration system has not yet been implemented, objectively also need a good atmosphere; Kechuan plate has just had a demonstration effect, but also need to add firewood help, this time if anyone falls off the chain, I'm afraid that is going to fall into the blame.
The economic cycle downturn, superimposed on the epidemic, itself let the peak of some of the difficulties, favor is superimposed on the oversized rainy season, flooding and river flooding again, pain in the neck, think of the upper head and what trick?
This perspective, the need for a financing market, the enterprises low-cost access to direct financing, the first to the immediate difficulties to go through, some of the bubble, a bit of garbage, but what is the harm ?
The process of the bull market is a series of twists and turns, and often those who have not experienced it will be scared by the sudden decline, and then look at it again in a few days, as usual!
Board rotation, what does it say?
Structural bull market since the beginning of last year to the present, pharmaceuticals, new technology, white wine consumption, new infrastructure are basically beaten to a high level, coupled with a sudden round of burst volume since July cattle, the above plate believe that the old oil mixed market (public fundraising, private equity lobbying) is really can't get down .
This month, the entire market new funds will be conservatively estimated to be hundreds of billions of dollars, the major funds eyeing the pillow, waiting for the day. The first thing you need to do is to get your hands on a new pair of shoes or boots.
Of course, it is not yet up, or up not much of the plate, only to grab in front of others have the bottom position, after the market, whether up or down to not be passive, but also to be able to swim in the breeze.
Moreover, the fund has a time limit for building a position, just as the market has come to a "dugout" type of adjustment, in the sense of reason, should do a great job.
The rotation in the bull market, to offer the old stockholders a limerick:
financial head, technology leading, drinking and eating medicine, infrastructure energy, car pulling the house run, coal flying color dance, public sweeping tail!
Note: Finance includes brokers, trusts, insurance, banks, and participation in financial tickets
Technology includes electronics, information, software, communications, intelligence, and the Internet
Drugs include pharmaceuticals, medical care, and medical equipment
Energy includes petroleum, natural gas, thermal energy, nuclear energy, and electric power
Color includes non-ferrous metals and other mining
Public including environmental protection, water, high speed, and other operations have fixed charges
This paragraph speaks to the characteristics of the bull market rotation.
Now is to take drugs and drink has been on the head, science and technology, the old leading, rushed to the financial building materials to pull the room to run, the military and industrial station media fly color dance.
Not to the end, but the low valuation rise opened the curtain!
The current market, and the previous rounds of bull market is still different.
Everyone long the current attitude towards the stock market is really need, and do not want to go back to the old way: "a release on the crazy, a grasp on the death" . So long bull, slow bull is more in line with the expectations of everyone long.
And mainstream public and private equity, star chiefs, so far there is still disagreement.
Last week there were people shouting that the bull market flag straight into the 4000, at least until the first half of next year, the weekend there were people shouting out the bubble emerged, the old folks run, the edge of the fight to withdraw.
Buy in disagreement, sell in agreement! We still have different opinions, often the market is still in the chaotic period, and when all the voices are shouting "bulls invincible" when, on the contrary, we have to prick up the ears, a high degree of vigilance.
The volume of the two markets for 13 consecutive days more than a trillion, the current state can only say: the need to obey the big picture, the long bull slow bull on the road; the bull two stage when the plate rotation to find underestimated.
Annual Theme Tips:
Pulling the momentum of the economy, superimposed on the southern floods, building materials infrastructure plate is the top priority! Today's plate leader has been on the board for the first time, and the previous this plate is limited, relative to the popular plate, or have the space to make up
As long as the financial market heavy financing light investment, there will never be a bull market.
In the brokerage-led financial stocks after a continuous surge, the A-share market was completely ignited. The Shanghai index stabilized at 3300, the Shenzhen Composite Index and the GEM continuously hit new highs, turnover hit 1.5 trillion, retail investors lined up to open accounts, brokerage trading software rare downtime.
As most stock investors, the current market is certainly full of doubts, why is it so good today? Now in the end is not a bull market? The next index should be how to go? Bull flagship brokerage stocks can still chase? White want to open an account on the car? The following answers to the above questions, the views in the text are for reference only, do not have investment advice.
1. July 6 why the index rose so well?
The Shanghai index rose 5.71%, pulling out a rare big sun line, the reason for this, the brokerage, banking and insurance three major banking sectors can not be faulted.
From the industry sector gains, banks, insurance, brokerage firms have risen more than 9%, able to outperform the Shanghai index of the board very few, the vast majority of them are dragging the index behind. Therefore, if you do not hold financial stocks, out of the "independent market" to lose the Shanghai index is normal.
In fact, the financial stocks led by the brokerage firms have surged for three consecutive trading days, Saturday, although not open, but the "bull market" atmosphere in the stockholders continued to ferment, today's emotional catharsis, the main force to follow the trend, set off a wave of financial stocks stopped. In addition, bank-led financial stocks in the valuation of pharmaceuticals and food and beverage sectors compared to the really underestimated, the recent rise is the long-term low valuation of financial stocks to repair.
2. Is it a bull market or not?
As we all know, the brokerage is the flag bearer of the bull market, but whenever the bull market comes, the brokerage will rise first.
We do an analysis of the rising market of the brokerage sector in recent years:
(1) The brokerage sector at the end of 2014, the beginning of 2019 and the present time there have been three waves of clearly rising market.
(2) the current market brokerage plate has risen with the beginning of 2019 that brokerage market, but in the momentum of brokerage plate three consecutive large sun line is clearly better than in 2019.
(3) Everbright H shares rose more than 30%, A shares can not rise in place in one step because of the stopping system, the brokerage sector 99% to go up! The probability of rising more than the beginning of the 2019 market.
(4) the current brokerage sector and the end of 2014 that round of the market in the momentum and the technical side is more similar to the brokerage stocks every day stop, investors dare to ask not dare to buy. But the difference is that at the end of 2014 there is a strong expectation of the reform of the bull, the current epidemic under the economic recovery whether there is uncertainty about the difference in expectations.
(5) The brokerage market leader at the end of 2014 is CITIC Securities, the current round of the leader is Everbright and China Merchants, these two rounds are the real deal, that round of the brokerage market leader at the beginning of 2019 is CITIC CIC, led by the sub-new brokerage, due to the incomplete unblocking of the pull up will not need too much money.
From the above analysis, the brokerage has to go up, under the leadership of the financial stocks of the Shanghai index rose to 3600 points is very likely. What is the bull market? In the eyes of most investors, the rise of the SSE is called the bull market!
In fact, from the beginning of 2019 to the present, the oscillation pivot of the GEM and SZCI has been raising, the GEM has risen from 1200 points to 2500 points now, and has been a bull market for a year and a half. However, in the eyes of investors, due to the lack of power of the SSE index, the impression of the stock market has been the Shanghai index repeatedly hit 2900 points.
The plate differentiation is also very strong, including medicine, liquor, food and beverage plates have actually long been out of the counter-intuitive market. Only in the financial real estate and other heavyweight drag, the Shanghai index has been pressed to the ground friction.
In summary, now is the bull market!
3. How should the index go next? The first thing you need to do is to get a good deal on a new product or service.
From a technical point of view, the Shanghai index has no resistance above, the probability of soaring all the way to the former high 3587 points, may also be a small technical adjustment after pulling up to the former high pressure. 3587 points is a clear former high pressure, but if the financial stocks can maintain a strong market, there is a breakthrough in the possibility.
The rise of the SZCI index in the continuous small positive line into a continuous medium positive line, today a large sun technical surface there is a stage of suspicion of the top.
For those who have already entered the brokerage stocks and bank stocks, congratulations, certainly earned money. It is not difficult to operate, as long as the continuous rise, do not put a huge amount of decline, do not appear more than a week of horizontal lag can be held patiently. Once the signs of the top, financial stocks switch to lagging plate performance can be small votes, such as the current market under the wood furniture plate, a lot of stocks did not go up, low valuation and fundamentals are guaranteed.
For those who have not yet entered the brokerage stock friends here do not recommend chasing high, for the brokerage industry, there is no big good, this rise will not be like the white wine plate as "irreversible", the current rise in brokerage stocks has become a theme and the technical side of the game, the future probability of a high point of the plate after a sharp decline. Short-term chase high once a sharp decline, no one can accurately give hold or cut meat recommendations.
For the bank stocks is a test of the ability to choose stocks, the fundamentals of the bank stocks is better than the brokerage, there is fundamental support, but some small and medium-sized banks have problems with the quality of the assets, a round of upsurge in the future trend or differentiation. Today, China Merchants Bank stopped, faith powder to turn, to China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, led by high-quality bank stocks worth in-depth study.
4.
Now we can't tell whether 2020 will be a bull market like 2015 and 2007, and we can't accurately judge whether the current is a general bull like 2015, or whether it will be out of the fundamentals-based structural bull like the U.S. stocks. As an investor, we should not and cannot miss such a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity! Such a bull market, encountered 3-5 times in a lifetime, is enough.
The safe choice is: full position against the upside risk, and pick stocks against the downside risk!
As a mature investor, what we need to consider now is not whether to enter the account, but how to have enough margin of safety, selecting high-quality listed companies that can get excess returns. Even if there is a decline in the future, you can have enough confidence in the hands of the stock, and face it with ease, rather than fleeing in haste and bear the pain of cutting meat.
And nearly 1-2 months soared over the stocks, or has overdrawn the future upside, at this time, I am afraid that the bulls are difficult to act, or for the main force to provide better conditions for the shipment, should not be our choice.
The stock market to get excess returns in two ways, the first is a low price from the "fools" to buy stocks, and then a reasonable price to sell to the smart people; the second is a certain price to buy stocks, and then sold at a high price to the "fools". There are so many articles in the market that teach you how to make money the second way, but the first way is probably safer because the market is bound to get smarter in the long run.
Firmly optimistic about the future development of the market, if you have to define the market in terms of bulls or bears, there is no doubt that now is the bull market.
Only the bull market is also divided into many kinds, there is a structural bull market, there is a big bull market, the big bull market is like 07 and 15 years.
Moreover, bull markets are also phased and cannot suddenly explode all at once. Now in the early stage of the bull market, the early stage of the bull market performance:
1, retail investors are still wavering, skeptical mindset mostly.
2, the majority of retail investors are still set.
3, the overall valuation and price of white horse blue chips is quietly moving up.
4, the local theme of the leading stocks appeared to rise doubling effect, and is not an individual phenomenon, and even appeared to rise ten times the individual stocks.
5, loose money, the market is not short of money.
6, the policy from the good real estate slowly shifted to the good capital markets.
First take 3600 say, but I look at the size of the funds coming in this time, theoretically can be pushed up to 3800, 3400 which fell more than 200 points, I think 4000 is not a big problem