2, according to the integrity of the industrial system to calculate, China has 39 industrial categories, 191 in the category, 525 small categories, become the world's only United Nations Industrial Classification of all the industrial categories of the country, the United Nations Industrial Classification of all the industrial categories listed can be found in China. If a manufacturing manufacturer can complete the supporting work with a half-hour phone call in China, it may take half a month to get it done in other countries.
Next is the United States, specific data I've seen before and can't find it now, but it should also account for about 94%, then Russia, the European Union, and Japan barely counts for one (mainly civilian manufacturing systems).
3, the role of the complete industrial system is mainly embodied in the external competitiveness and national defense military force.
In foreign trade competition, a more complete industrial system can reduce the cost of production of industrial support, conducive to the production of high-quality and low-priced products to strengthen the competitive advantage of domestic products in international trade. Due to the impact of globalization, many raw materials, semi-finished products, products, etc. imported from abroad than domestic production, so maintain a completely 100% industrial obvious unnecessary, but will increase the cost of products. This is the reason why the industrial systems of countries other than China are not absolutely complete.
The greatest value of a 100% industrial system is in war, where it is possible to produce all war products independently without being held hostage by foreign countries. In a war between a small country and a large country, the large country can destroy the small country with a few cutting-edge products, but in a war between large countries, the gap in cutting-edge technology is not so large that one side is completely helpless to resist, so at this time, the ability to produce large quantities of rapid production of mid-range weapons is more relevant than the slow production of a small number of expensive high-end weapons, an example of which can be seen in the tank wars between Germany and the Soviet Union.
Since the end of WWII, the world has been about white dominance, monopolizing the largest amount of global resources and profits, and China is an outlier in this international system. There is a saying in the *** Producer's Party that "if you seek peace through struggle, peace will survive; if you seek peace through concession, peace will die". China has not only and the United States and the Soviet Union two military conflicts and even wars, and even encountered the Soviet Union and the United States to formulate *** with the partition of China, so the danger of the death of the country at all times strangled in China's neck, an absolute integrity, not to seek outsiders of the industrial system, has become China's most realistic choice.
Of course, by now, a complete industrial system is still of great value to China, and is important for China's industrial upgrading. Even for various criticized high-precision products, many of China's technological capabilities are ranked among the top few in the world. Lagging behind and advanced, depending on with whom to compare, not to mention China's technology to catch up, mergers and acquisitions so fast.
Why is a complete industrial system so important to a country. This is because if the industrial system is dependent on the outside world, then that country's entire economic system is at risk of being severely damaged in a conflict.
Let's take a simple example, North Korea has not always been so miserable, in the past North Korea used to have a higher standard of living than both China and South Korea. Then the Soviet Union collapsed, the EEC collapsed, and North Korea couldn't get enough oil, machinery parts, or technology, so petroleum-based agriculture collapsed, and the system of mechanization collapsed into what it is now. Of course, North Korea is a small country, it is not enough to house a complete industrial system by itself. That's one advantage China has as a large country.
Don't look at the fact that China still needs to import a lot of things (such as chips), but if it did get cut off from the supply, China could still produce low-end chips for use, albeit with lower yields, higher power consumption, and slower speeds, which would still be enough to support the industrial system.
So the significance of a complete industrial system in terms of national security is very significant. No matter which country wants to threaten that country, they don't have the ability to bring down the country's economic system just through a trade embargo. This puts a country in a favorable position in an international conflict.
From an economic development standpoint, because a country has a more complete range of industries, when a foreign country invests, it is easy to find local manufacturers, greatly reducing the cost of producing products (importing parts from foreign countries not only involves paying shipping costs, but often tariffs as well). This has forced a large number of industries to stay in China even though labor costs are already significantly higher than in many developing countries (of course, the well-developed infrastructure is also a major reason for this).
So a complete industrial system is not only good for national security, but also a great aid to economic development.
And China's earliest complete industrial system was built on 156 projects aided by the Soviet Union. This made it possible for China's own economic system not to collapse even if it was at war with the Soviet Union and the United States at the same time.
The world now has a complete industrial system, I am afraid that only China, the United States, the European Union, Russia is more reluctant. Japan counts as half, and is more severely limited by natural resources. Among them, the United States and the EU are the strongest, basically in all fields can reach the world's leading level. China's level of basic materials, precision instruments, electronics, etc., although usable, but really poor. Russia's degradation is more serious.
The fact that the US doesn't produce a lot of things isn't that it can't. It's just unprofitable to produce. It still has the specific technology. The US is still capable of restoring relevant production capabilities at the moment of necessity.
Specifically, the existence of the Batumi. The arms embargo that began in the late 1980s. The US banned Intel from exporting XEON processors to China the other day. Oh, there are actually embargoes under the free market.
Manufacturing. It is said that after a certain five-axis came out, the price of foreign products directly cut down. Moreover, the domestic five-axis is said to be all kinds of brown.
But this thing is worse than 100 years, that is, others eat meat you drink the northwest wind. Difference of 60 years is that others eat meat you drink leftover soup. Difference of 10 years, you still drink soup, but people can only follow the soup.
This is something that can not be rushed, just consume it. To do a good job to continue to lose money for decades of determination. Look not at their own products to earn how much, but the price of imported products can be waist cut again and again.
Then cite the communications industry, talk about the switch. 15 years ago, a board 200,000. 10 years ago, 100,000. This is normal technological progress. But please note that not the technology used more NB. are mature technology for more than a decade. But when people have a monopoly on technology, they can reduce the price by half only in 5 years.
But the most pitiful is the deflector plate, just an iron plate, used to fill the empty slot, guide the airflow, control the temperature of the equipment. 35 U.S. dollars a piece. 1 pound weight. Still not stainless steel 。。。。 Years without price reduction. Can you say this is good technology? But people monopolize the switch technology, other brands they do not recognize, you dare to install their own, they do not warranty the entire machine.
10 years ago, domestic switches began to have mid-range and high-end products. bugs super. But the price is low, so since some small cities began to use. Used 3 years, stabilized some of the failure rate is Europe and the United States products 1 ?. This result came out, imported switch prices began the process of diving.
100,000 boards, 5 years later 10,000, and then 5 years. Many European and American factories have gone out of business and disappeared 。。。。
As for that $35 dollar iron board? Give it away for free. Later it was made clear that it was actually fine without the iron plate, so don't match it ......
That's the reality. It's not whether one's product is exquisite or not that matters. Rather, it's one's ability to make the foreigner honestly lower the price.
The latecomers are sad and can only hold back. The so-called win-win situation. In fact, it is a beautiful lie.
At first the backward ones were incapable, people said 10,000 on 10,000. Later the backward have some ability. People said I let 5000, your products do not come out to rob the market 。。。。 Well, win-win 。。。。
We used to have a low level of national industry. Cement plant mill with reducer, when foreign reducer sold 10 million dollars, the domestic reducer can not develop a stable product. Wait until after the localization, foreign large reducer has basically withdrawn from the domestic market. Because the domestic may only three million. Similarly the whole system of various equipment prices have come down. Then there is the great development of the domestic cement industry, and then to today's cement prices have almost dropped to the price of cabbage. Then the cement industry developed greatly, and then Sinoma International, the world's largest cement engineering general contractor's technology accumulation, created today's Sinoma International's overseas general contracting business accounted for eighty percent of its own business. In turn, the cement industry in Africa and Southeast Asia has grown tremendously. Can you imagine five years ago when there were not many cement factories in Africa, only cement importers? So it's great to hear people say that China is a crusher of the developed world. European life is not out of thin air, when the Chinese people can not build things, they can sell five dollars for fifty dollars, has it ever occurred to you to work all your life, of which eighty percent is given to Europe and the United States to feed them can be a leisure vacation. It allows them to have a face that hasn't been bullied.
Or reducer industry. Look at how Europe and the United States to the gentleman's heart of the heart of the small man. 2005 Siemens merger and acquisition of a company, for the giant is no big deal, 1.2 billion euros in acquisitions, said big not big, said small not small. But it had a profound impact on the pattern of the world gearbox industry. The acquired company is called Flanders, is the first chair of the speed reducer industry. After being acquired by Siemens, Siemens filled the gap in this area. But it was a terrible thing for GE, which has extensive competition with Siemens in many fields. Especially in the field of wind power, the key part of the wind power host is the speed reducer, and before GE is mainly with Flanders to buy, and GE and Siemens in this field is the most direct rival. These two are an American giant, a German giant, and Flanders is also a German company. Even if they don't cooperate with each other, it doesn't affect the cooperation between GE and Flanders. The end of the story should be that everyone goes to a happy life together. GE's most direct response is to find a company in China to cooperate, cut off cooperation with Flanders because they are afraid of Siemens in the key time to card their own necks, so cultivated a Chinese enterprise, just a few years to make this enterprise from the value of more than a billion into tens of billions of dollars level, the wind turbine host shipments of the world's first. International giants know that being stuck in the neck must not be, I was thinking, so many industries in China were attacked by the Chinese found that the original foreigners made so much money, such examples are too numerous to mention, many people still look at the foreigners with a kind of innocence, should I say stupid or naive?
You think manufacturing is something you can buy with money? Is it something you can buy when you want to?
What I want to say is that a kind of instrument, if there is no domestic, then foreign products will be sold to you at double the price. The only way to produce a truly competitive domestic product is for them to drop their prices dramatically without fail.
The inability to industrialize means the need to purchase at high prices on the international market, facing technological blockades and bans on exports at any time.
The inability to industrialize means that the huge domestic purchasing demand ends up just fattening a group of buyers, and only the top group of our engineering students can join the international high-precision enterprises to get a high salary, and the others can only be miserable to join the OEM.
To give examples of familiar industries, and a rough discussion.
1, IC industry localization.
Whether precision machine tools, CNC machine tools and other basic industries, or missiles, radar, ships, aerospace and other cutting-edge industries, all need integrated circuits as the core. In the early 1980s, 8086 chips need to be imported, that time the country only how much foreign exchange? By exporting textiles and handicrafts, exporting furniture and other foreign exchange, and then spend a high price from the international market to buy 8086/8088 such a negligible cost of the chip, and high-end chips are often blocked by the Batumi, this sour, simply let people can not stand.
The Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Microelectronics, Tsinghua Institute of Microelectronics, Fudan Institute of Microelectronics and a number of microelectronics, the main work is to deal with the implementation of the technology blockade of the mainstream manufacturing technology of the microelectronics industry in China by many countries, at that stage, microelectronics, the main work of the Institute of the development of integrated circuits in the production process. In short, when a microelectronics institute made 0.6um integrated circuit production process, we will show to the United States and the United States of America and Ba unified a message: our country has mastered this technology, your country if you continue to block the 0.6um process of chip exports to our country, or to sell high prices to our country, then the despicable country will take five years to develop and produce their own, and no longer imports of your country's chips. So the U.S. empire's industry associations will lobby Congress to authorize the opening of exports of this product to China.
Now China is still importing a lot of chips, but on the one hand, the mid-range and lower chips can definitely be made domestically, and only the high-end chips are imported.
To tell you a story, we do analog integrated circuits and RF circuits, if you want to borrow some important foreign chips, how to do? We will first polish off the package, and then dismantle the chip; use the etching of the way layer by layer to take off the chip on the layer of cladding, and then photographed, manually stripped the layout, analyze the circuit, with Spectrum simulation tools for simulation, Ohyeah!
Relying on such barbaric means of growth, the development of the integrated circuit industry from around 90 years, the industry first to master the advanced manufacturing process as the goal of cutting-edge research and development, to obtain the right to import new types of chips; and then through a number of channels to seek the world's most advanced chip foundry settled in China, so there is a Taiwanese Zhang Rujing began in 2000 in Beijing, Yizhuang, engaged in the SMIC (SMIC), 04 years to encourage the development of the integrated circuit industry, and to encourage the development of the industry. 04 years to encourage the development of the IC industry, the major universities to train at least 2000 engineers each year to the IC industry. 07 years when the Xi'an side of Infineon, Qimonda and other IC companies have also developed a red-hot.
I don't know 09 financial crisis, there is no company acquired the international IC industry core technology, but I know is to 2014, in the IC industry development of 25 years, the North Microelectronics Company independently developed 12-inch 28-nanometer plasma silicon etching machine comprehensive through the Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC) production line of the whole process process validation, and get the order. This TMD is the zero breakthrough!
2, the localization of rail transportation equipment
Keeping up with the international community's development is very difficult, China can not be at the low end of the international industrial chain for a long time, in the key technologies and key equipment, moreover, can not be subjected to a long time. China cannot buy a modernization from abroad. (Unless the 1.3 billion people work overtime to farm and textile to engage in OEM processing to support the modern life of 50 million upper-class people)
The field of rail transportation is a standard example. Recall that by 2010, the Development and Reform Commission a *** approved 25 + 10 *** 35 cities 50 subway line construction, the cost of each subway is about 20 billion, of which the electromechanical equipment (locomotives, tracks, shield machines, contact networks, screen doors, automatic ticket sales and so on) at least 8 billion, 50 lines is 400 billion. Only the formation of China's rail transportation equipment research and development manufacturing system, in order to effectively reduce the cost of the subway.
If you buy all imported equipment, the cost of electromechanical equipment at least 50%, and spend so much money, what people get the benefits? International product manufacturers ah! Their gross profit is at least 50%, that's why the product manufacturer's engineers can work 5 days a week, 5 hours a day, more than a month of vacation a year, and go to China are business class + five-star hotels. The product agent spends 5% of the business cost to take away about 8% of the profit, VAT 17% (subway construction is the central and local government investment, VAT is the left hand to the right hand), import tax rebate, customs clearance and declaration of customs and what not, the agent did 400 billion dollars of business, leaving only 30 billion dollars of profit, just directly create jobs for about 3,000 people.
If localization is achieved, how many people will be supported by 400 billion dollars of industrial sales? Anyway, Huawei has 239 billion yuan of sales in 2013, there are 150,000 employees (Huawei's employees are still very high wages), for Huawei to do outsourcing or subcontracting supporting enterprises are countless; 400 billion yuan of mechanical and electrical equipment purchases directly create more than 400,000 people's jobs, I think it is more conservative.
400,000 high-income people's consumption and can drive how much catering and entertainment home appliances automobile housing market?
So, the establishment of a complete industrial system in industry and the localization of key technologies and equipment is the only way to truly **** the same affluence. Otherwise only a handful of people get rich.
Tell a random story about the localization of AFC (Automatic Fare Collection). The protagonist is Shanghai Huahong. Shanghai rail transit line 1, 2 of the AFC all from the United States CUBIC company's products, in September 1998 to complete the commissioning of line 1. March 1999 operation. But all the shortcomings of imports are expensive, high operating costs, confidentiality of key technologies leading to system maintenance and upgrade difficulties, lack of spare parts, senior maintenance staff to fly over from the United States, and the cost of labor hours from the United States from the time of departure to start calculating. So in line 3 bidding, the government asked foreign suppliers to provide localization measures, so by Shanghai Huahong and Spain INDRA company consortium won the bid, in the implementation of the gradual localization of application software, maintenance parts and components of localization.
In fact, at this time the level of Shanghai Huahong is still limited, but can not help the government support - the government believes that Shanghai Huahong initially has the ability to design and manufacture independently, so in the end of 2001, the northern extension of Line 1, AFC bidding, Shanghai Huahong took out the price of 60 million CUBIC, and in fact, in 2004, Shanghai Huahong and Spain, INDRA, a consortium of companies to provide localization measures, so the implementation of application software localization, maintenance parts and components. And actually in 2004 to finish the job, and train a vote of people, high-tech modern, Shanghai Post, Shanghai Huateng and so on the unit and then high-paying a dig - to 2008, the domestic AFC industry is basically no foreign companies have anything.
One line of one hundred million contracts, 50 lines were Shanghai Huateng, Shanghai Huahong, Nanjing Panda, high-tech modern, Founder, ZDNZ these units to split the big head.
And at this time, Shanghai Huahong also with Fudan Microelectronics (you see my first said microelectronics Well!) The company also cooperated with Fudan Microelectronics (you see, I'm the first to say microelectronics!) to provide localized products for the whole system, which also drove the development of microelectronics industry.
The story is awesome, from the introduction of technology to kick off the foreigners, only took less than 8 years, but also trained a large number of practitioners.
3, the localization of equipment in the petrochemical field
The previous two examples of the scale are not big, the real big head here!
Please ask: what industries are needed for basic production in an area of one million people?
Answer: small coal mines, small iron and steel mills, small machinery factories, small fertilizer factories, small cement factories, small power plants, small textile factories, small printing factories, small food factories.
In fact, it was a program put forward in 1970 when the country was formulating its fourth five-year plan, the details of which were that the central government allocated 8 billion yuan in special funds to support the development of five types of industrial projects in various provinces and districts, such as small coal mines, small iron and steel factories, small fertilizer factories, small cement factories and small machinery factories.
The second large-scale introduction of complete sets of technology and equipment was carried out at that time, and 26 projects*** were actually signed with foreign countries, among which those with investment of more than 1 billion yuan were Liaoyang Petrochemical and Chemical Fiber General Factory (2.9 billion yuan), Wuhan Iron and Steel's one-meter-seven rolling mill (2.76 billion yuan), Daqing Fertilizer Factory (Japanese yen loan, exchange rate adjustment, the investment increased to 2.67 billion yuan), Shanghai Petrochemical General Factory (2 billion yuan), Tianjin Petrochemical Fiber Factory (1.35 billion yuan)
Note ah, this is 11.65 billion in 1970, when the official exchange rate is the yuan against the dollar is 2.46 Oh! 4.7 billion U.S. dollars Oh! ! In 1970 the foreign exchange reserves spent only 20 million dollars, until 1975 to have 500 million dollars in foreign exchange reserves!!!! In addition, in 1979, China's money supply of 2.6 billion yuan, GDP of 27.2 billion U.S. dollars (figures are from the network, please have the knowledge of the face)
China's foreign exchange, to introduce ethylene fertilizer units are not enough, but also want to buy what TV?
The 1970s the introduction of 13 sets of large-scale fertilizer plant list:
1, Qilu Second Fertilizer Plant April 1974, completed in July 1976, an investment of 263.03 million yuan;
2, the Sichuan Chemical Plant May 1974, completed in December 1976, an investment of 160.12 million yuan;
3, Luzhou Natural Gas Chemical Plant May 1974, completed in December 1976, an investment of 16.12 million yuan;
4, the Sichuan Chemical Plant, the Sichuan Chemical Plant, the Sichuan Chemical Plant and the Sichuan Chemical Plant. Luzhou Natural Gas Chemical Plant Construction began in April 1974 and was completed in March 1977, with an investment of 206.42 million yuan;
4. Daqing Fertilizer Plant Construction began in May 1974 and was completed in June 1977, with an investment of 2,674.47 million yuan;
5. Cangzhou Fertilizer Plant Construction began in July 1973 and was completed in December 1977, with an investment of 243.12 million yuan;
6.
6, Liaohe Fertilizer Plant Construction began in June 1974 and was completed in December 1977 with an investment of 343.42 million yuan;
7, Yunnan Natural Gas Chemical Plant Construction began in January 1975 and was completed in December 1977 with an investment of 187.59 million yuan.
8, Qixia Mountain Fertilizer Plant Construction began in September 1974 and was completed in October 1978, with an investment of 321.28 million yuan;
9, Anqing Fertilizer Plant Construction began in March 1974 and was completed in December 1978, with an investment of 405.26 million yuan;
10, Chishui River Natural Gas Fertilizer Plant Construction began in January 1976 and was completed in December 1978
11, Dongting Nitrogen Fertilizer Plant Construction began in April 1974 and was completed in July 1979, with an investment of 313.29 million yuan;
12, Hubei Fertilizer Plant Construction began in October 1974 and was completed in August 1979, with an investment of 298.75 million yuan;
13, Guangzhou Fertilizer Plant Construction began in December 1974 and was It was completed in October 1982 with an investment of 507.39 million yuan;
Among the above 13 plants, except for the three plants in Dongzheng, Anqing and Zhijiang, which use naphtha as raw material, the rest use natural gas as raw material.
The main technology importers of the 10 units with natural gas as raw material are the United States and the Netherlands, the ammonia unit adopts the Kellogg production process of the United States, and the urea unit adopts the Stamicarbon carbon dioxide vaporization production process of the Netherlands. Some companies have adopted the ammonia/urea process of Japan's Toyo Engineering Corporation.
One acre of land uses 10 kilograms of fertilizer a year, and 3.9 million tons of fertilizer production equipment has been introduced, which can meet the fertilizer needs of about 260 million people.
Everyone is relying on the introduction of the year's equipment plus technology, draw manpower for research, such as 110,000 tons of ethylene equipment research, 300,000 tons of ethylene equipment research, large fertilizer research, etc., relying on the group of that year's good at learning, learning, research the efforts of the predecessors, bite by bite, nibble down the production line of petrochemical plants, directly or indirectly solve the problem of food.
Don't take it seriously, there is no such basic industrial system, the light of a low-precision precision lathe can ask you to 3 million, high-end embargo, not to mention engage in what propellers, submarines, big airplanes. To the people here, just a lifetime of dealing with the green car.
The first, LCD panel industry.
In 2004, I was a product manager of a state-owned enterprise as a 15inch panel. At that time, I just graduated from graduate school and worked less than two years of rash. The whole team spent 3 months to do the design, a month to do mask to set the material, 2 months to try to do, officially put into production before our estimated cost of 220 U.S. dollars per piece. At that time, the market price was $260. 6 months later, we had about 25% of the world's 15inch market share, and at that time, the market price was a horrible $160, and our cost was $180, which was a huge loss.
We can take a look at BOE's financial report, well basically three years of profit once huh. According to the market economy, this kind of business should be closed? But you do the math, roughly the relationship in 2005, China's panel industry every loss of 1 dollar, China's LCD monitors and TV companies will cost down 20 dollars. That's the power of localization.
Thanks to BOE, tianma, SVA and TCL for their efforts and dedication over the years, without the huge investment of the panel industry countries, there would be no success of the domestic TV industry. The Chinese government's investment in the LCD panel industry is about 100 billion, and in 2014 China's LCD TV production 140 million units, how many years of investment in a few months the TV industry earned back.
The second example is the new energy I'm doing now.
In 2010, we talked to all the gas international giants, including linde, AL, AP, all Fortune 500 level companies about the supply of an alkane gas. Their offer was very close, 45,000 a kilogram, even though we knew that the cost of the supplier behind them was under 25,000. Then we tried to cultivate a domestic supplier in Fujian with a higher cost, 28,000 level I think, and we bought it for 31,000. Then less than a year later, these Fortune 500 came back to us and said sell it to you for 27,000. So according to some free market economy believers, we should ditch the domestic manufacturers and work with the big foreign companies? The hell with that. We know very well that when this domestic one dies, these foreign predators will not hesitate to raise the price to 40,000 or more. By the way, the people we are negotiating with are Chinese buyers from the Chinese subsidiaries of these big international companies.
Another example, in 2013, we acquired a U.S. company that was in debt, and if the Chinese tycoon did not make a move, it would have died a horrible death. Even so, the acquisition was subject to an antitrust investigation by the U.S. Congress, and the acquisition was delayed for three months. And the so-called anti-trust, the process of the U.S. empire legislators really care about, not monopoly, but the relationship between our companies and the Chinese government, as well as the resulting technology military applications.
This company's production technology requires the use of 0.5-millimeter-thick coiled steel plates, and when we localized them and hoped to produce them in China, both the U.S. and Japanese suppliers said that they could not export them to China because, according to Baosteel, this is a strategic material embargoed to China. And 6 months after we and Baosteel reached an agreement for Baosteel to start producing samples of this steel plate, the U.S. empire decisively lifted the embargo on this steel plate to China.
So why industrialization and localization? Because the world from over is not a free market economy, is still the typical law of the jungle. At any time, only you can build it, others and you talk about the free market. When you can't build it, you're faced with either a high price dumping, or a complete embargo.
Of course, if our goal is not to industrialize, but simply to develop the service sector, the goal is to be an exporter of manpower and raw materials plus a dumping ground for high-level products, there is really no need to localize anything.