20 10 development analysis of solar thermal power generation in China
Huidian Market Research Report Network News "I have 2 billion in cash and 20 billion in my account, and I hope to invest in photothermal power generation projects." At the beginning of 20 10, a multinational company engaged in the development of traditional energy sources told people at the Institute of Electrical Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences that it was a leading institution in the research of solar thermal power generation in China.
There are still a lot of huge funds eager to find similar investment channels. Faced with the increasing scarcity of traditional energy and the unshakable monopoly position of central enterprises, new energy has naturally become one of the most ideal exports. Recently, following the investment upsurge of hydropower, wind power, nuclear power and photovoltaic power generation, photothermal power generation has gradually warmed up and entered the vision of investors and strategic decision makers.
10 year 10 On October 20th, the 50 MW trough solar thermal power generation concession demonstration project (hereinafter referred to as 50 MW thermal power project) in Erdos, Inner Mongolia was officially invited for bidding. This is the first commercial solar thermal power generation project in China, with an estimated annual power generation of1.200 million kWh. The industry hopes to use this project to consider domestic R&D technology, explore business models in line with national conditions, and drive market scale development.
The Medium-and Long-Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy promulgated in 2007 pointed out that during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, large-scale demonstration projects of grid-connected solar photovoltaic power stations will be built in Dunhuang, Gansu and Lhasa, Tibet, and demonstration projects of solar thermal power generation will be built in Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Xinjiang. By 2020, the total capacity of solar photovoltaic power plants in China will reach 2,000 MW, and the total capacity of solar thermal power generation will also reach 2,000 MW.
But at present, the progress of photothermal power generation lags far behind that of photovoltaic. "Compared with the photovoltaic electricity price, the photothermal electricity price is still very high. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have always had concerns about the development of solar thermal power generation. " An insider who participated in the feasibility study of Ordos project told the reporter, "After all, renewable energy funds are limited, and decision-makers are more inclined to choose low-cost renewable energy to develop first."
According to the "Measures for the Administration of Renewable Energy Special Fund (Draft)" formulated by the Ministry of Finance in April this year, the fund will be mainly used to subsidize the financial expenses incurred by power grid enterprises in accepting renewable energy power, and its sources are additional income from renewable energy electricity prices and special funds from the Ministry of Finance. According to the current 4% additional amount of renewable energy per kWh, the total fund is about 654.38+02 billion yuan per year.
Because photothermal power generation has no defect of instability and discontinuity of new energy sources such as photovoltaic and wind power, many countries position it as the basic load of electricity in future energy planning. According to the way of heat collection, photothermal power generation can be divided into three types: trough, tower and dish, and trough is the most commercially feasible.
Huang Xiang, chief scientist of the 973 (National Key Basic Research Plan) solar thermal power generation project and vice chairman of China Electric Association, predicted that by 2020, the scale of China's thermal power generation market will reach 22.5 trillion to 30 trillion yuan, and the total thermal power generation will account for 30%-40% of the total annual power generation.
However, there are also pessimists. A number of companies engaged in the manufacture of solar thermal power generation equipment said in an interview that although the thermoelectric market has a good prospect, it is very difficult to scale up, and it is still just a "house on the sand table".
A seven-year delay
The 50 MW thermal power project in Ordos began to be brewed as early as 2003, and it was originally scheduled to be tendered in the first quarter of 20 10. However, the electricity price scheme has been pending, which has led to repeated delays in bidding time.
At the Sino-German Science and Technology Forum held in 2006, the project was officially recognized as a Sino-German cooperation project. In 2007, the preliminary work was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission.
Subsequently, German Sun Millennium Company (hereinafter referred to as Sun Millennium) and Inner Mongolia Green Energy New Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Green Energy) jointly established Inner Mongolia Steep Solar Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Steep), specializing in the feasibility study report and implementation of the project. Among them, green energy accounts for 75% of the shares, and Sun Millennium accounts for 25%.
Xue Jigang, general manager of Green Energy Company, told the reporter that at the beginning of the project, Sun Qiannian planned to operate the project by himself, but according to the relevant regulations of China, the proportion of foreign investment in power cannot exceed 25%. As a result, Sun Millennium found green energy as a partner.
According to the feasibility study report of the project in June 5438+ 10, 2008, the total project cost is about10.80 billion yuan, and the average annual total power generation is about10.20 billion kwh. Based on the 25-year operation period, if the internal rate of return on capital is 8%, the after-tax on-grid tariff needs to reach 2.26 yuan/kWh.
"Compared with foreign electricity prices, we are still low." Xue Jigang explained that even compared with the photovoltaic electricity price approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, photothermal power generation still has great competitive advantages. At that time, the approved electricity prices of Shanghai Chongming Island photovoltaic project and Inner Mongolia Erdos concentrated photovoltaic project were above 4 yuan/kWh.
Unexpectedly, when Step reported the project to the National Development and Reform Commission at the on-grid price of 2.26 yuan/kWh, a financial crisis occurred and the price of photovoltaic modules plummeted. Dunhuang 10 MW solar energy project, the first photovoltaic grid-connected power generation demonstration project in China, won the bid at a price of only 1.09 yuan/kwh.
This sudden change directly led the NDRC to reject Depp's plan. Since then, Step has reduced the electricity price to 1.8 yuan/kWh, but it is still not allowed because the electricity price is too high.
"The difference between the approved electricity price of thermal power and the on-grid electricity price needs the government to pay the bill." Jiang Slav, head of scientific research of Ordos project, said that the price of thermal power in Inner Mongolia is 0.285 yuan/kWh, which is close to 2 yuan/kWh. According to this calculation, the country needs financial subsidies of about 200 million yuan every year, which is 5 billion yuan in 25 years.
People close to the National Energy Administration told reporters that the subsidy for a project can be borne by the government, but once a demonstration is formed, all localities will follow suit and rush headlong into it, and the decision-makers are worried that they will not be able to cope. In addition, after the concession bidding, the price of on-grid photovoltaic dropped again, and the decision-making department intends to follow suit.
On March 25th, 20 10, the National Energy Administration issued the Reply on the Construction of Solar Thermal Power Generation Demonstration Project in Inner Mongolia again, and decided to adopt the concession bidding method to build the project, select the investor through public bidding, and determine the on-grid electricity price, and required the localization rate of power station equipment and components to reach over 60% according to the value.
However, this reply did not allow the Ordos project to start immediately. "The previous price was calculated based on the import price of equipment and parts. Since there are no samples for reference in China, the localization ability needs to be investigated. " Xue Jigang said.
At the same time, the competition in the photovoltaic power generation market is becoming more and more fierce. In August, the second batch of national large-scale photovoltaic power station concession projects was started, and the on-grid electricity prices of 13 projects were all lower than 1 yuan/kwh. The general low price far exceeding expectations embarrassed the NDRC and the National Energy Administration (for details, please refer to 18, issue 20 10, Photoelectric Low Price War).
Affected by this, the National Energy Administration once heard that the bidding for the concession of 50 MW thermal power project was postponed indefinitely.
"At the enterprise level, the photothermal power generation market has been started for a long time, but if there is no commercialization project, enterprises will probably turn around after capturing the government's inaction, and this market will not be cultivated." A solar equipment manufacturer told reporters.
In September, the National Energy Administration held an internal meeting attended by interested investors and related equipment suppliers. One and a half months later, after seven years of preparation, the 50 MW thermal power project finally issued a tender announcement, and the invitation time for the total investor of the project was three months, ending at 65438+February 20. The bid opening time is 20 1 1 1.20, and the construction period is 30 months.
Development and Reform Commission vacillates.
Over the past seven years, the on-grid tariff has been affecting the attitude of the National Development and Reform Commission. It is like a sword hanging over the head of a decision maker. Even though the project has been opened, this concern has not dissipated.
"The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have been very cautious, serious and worried about this project." People close to the NDRC told reporters.
On May 10, at the project meeting of New Energy Industry Research Group, a key consulting and research project for the development of strategic emerging industries in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, photothermal power generation was asked to make a detailed statement as the focus.
The reporter learned that for photothermal power generation, the original intention of the National Development and Reform Commission is to first approve one or two projects to start the market according to the practice of photovoltaic power generation, and then explore the benchmark on-grid tariff through concession bidding to promote the scale development of the industry. This is also the reason why the Ordos project initially went through the approval process.
However, the sudden drop in the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation and the shortage of renewable energy funds put NDRC in a dilemma. The above-mentioned people close to NDRC said that on the one hand, where the electricity price is approved, NDRC has been unable to give a conclusion. There are no demonstration projects for reference in China, and the industrial chain is not mature and complete, which makes the National Development and Reform Commission have neither reference standards nor accurate calculations. "The government doesn't know how much, naturally dare not batch. They don't know if this is reasonable. "
On the other hand, the on-grid price of photovoltaic has dropped significantly, and the role of subsidies supporting photothermal can be doubled. "So I decided to develop photovoltaics first, and then go to photothermal when tariffs can be reduced more. After all, these subsidies will eventually be distributed to users. As a result, the electricity price will be raised, which will also bring a lot of controversy to the NDRC. "
In March, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) put forward the requirements of bidding for concession and 60% localization rate, hoping to reduce the light and heat electricity price.
Some experts pointed out that the construction cost of thermal power plants directly affects the price of thermal power grid connection. If the unit cost per kilowatt is reduced to less than 6,543.8+0,000 yuan, the on-grid price can be reduced to less than 654.38+0 yuan/kWh, and it will gradually approach the current benchmark price of wind power of 0.565.438+0 yuan/kWh.
At one time, NDRC hoped to cooperate with the EU. The reporter learned that in August, Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, and others made a special trip to Spain to inspect the photothermal power generation project after attending the Brussels Energy Conference.
Before and after this, Shi contacted the EU many times, hoping that the EU would strongly support this Sino-German government cooperation project in the form of grants or discount loans, so as to reduce the cost paid by the Chinese side, lower the electricity price and make the project start as soon as possible.
"The EU has not agreed, otherwise it may adopt the method of approving electricity prices." According to informed sources, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) was still making a final effort until half a month before the tender announcement of this project was issued, but it was still inconclusive. "All methods fail before bidding."
The reporter learned that in order to curb the inflated price of light and heat, the National Development and Reform Commission has specially added a "special clause" in the tender-the tender price shall not be higher than the photovoltaic price approved by the state. Among the approved photovoltaic feed-in tariffs, the highest price is 1. 15 yuan/kWh.
This "special clause" originated from an internal coordination meeting organized by the National Energy Administration in September. Seven or eight interested investors and five or six equipment suppliers, including Huadian, China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation, Datang, Huaneng and Guodian, attended the meeting. At the meeting, CGNPC, Datang and Guodian all indicated that the electricity price below 1.65 and 438+05 yuan could be done, while other undecided enterprises did not report on the spot that the price was too low.
Xue Jigang told reporters that according to the inquiry results of various equipment manufacturers, the electricity price around 1.5 yuan/kWh is more suitable, but NDRC still thinks it is too high. "After all, I made an inquiry and didn't talk about the cost after mass production. Maybe there is no problem for big companies to talk about the price of 1. 15 yuan. "
In fact, while worrying about high electricity prices, NDRC is also wary of possible ultra-low electricity prices. The reporter was informed that in order to avoid vicious competition in the bidding process, the technical scheme should be reviewed first, and the price bid should be reviewed after it is qualified. Electricity price accounts for about 70% of the consideration.
The house on the sand table
In order to prepare for the launch at the end of July, this positive signal released by the government cheered the people involved.
Wang Zhifeng, head of the overall team of the 863 Solar Thermal Power Generation Project and a researcher at the Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the 50 MW thermal power generation project will not only arouse the awakening of the thermal power generation industry, but also arouse the awakening of the entire thermal power generation industry chain, including power companies, equipment manufacturers, banks and investors. Thermal power generation is expected to become the next blue ocean for new energy investment.
Many voices think that it is "too hasty", and the development process of new energy industry generally begins with technology research and development, and then enters the commercialization stage after successful experiments and demonstrations.
At present, domestic research and development work is limited. Although the experimental demonstration project is under construction, the results are not yet known. In addition, the state has not issued targeted support policies, which is not enough to support this commercial project with a large installed capacity.
A person in charge of a central enterprise engaged in photothermal research and utilization said in an interview, "Our current independent research and development is a bit cost-free, just for independent intellectual property rights, but the cost has not come down. In terms of commercial operation, there is no standard system and profit model such as standardization, management and maintenance, and a set of chains such as finance, financing, construction, industrial chain system and policy management, and there is no possibility of commercialization. "
It should not be overlooked that the core technologies in the thermoelectric industry chain, such as system integration, heat collecting tubes and condenser, are still in the hands of foreign enterprises. If it cannot be solved, it will seriously hinder the large-scale development of the market, which is also an important reason why the National Development and Reform Commission requires the localization rate of 50 MW thermal power projects.
The investigation results of localization in the early stage of 50 MW thermal power project are not optimistic. In terms of system integration, only two enterprises, China Airport and Huadian Engineering, are currently building complete power generation test systems. Because there is no practical application, it is impossible to prove its integrity, maturity and reliability, which has become a worrying problem.
As for the collector tube, although many companies, such as Nortel Solar Research Institute, Huang Ming Solar, Shendian Weizhen Solar and so on, are developing independently, but at present it is only in the stage of sample output, without engineering verification, and the mass production capacity and quality are unknown.
In the condensing part, the bending accuracy and reflectivity of mirror products are mainly guaranteed by advanced equipment. It is understood that the world's third production line introduced by Zhejiang Daming Glass from abroad is still in the process of transportation. If the installation is completed at the end of the year, it may be listed next year. If it can't be delivered on schedule, no other domestic manufacturer can provide products that meet the requirements of the same technical level abroad.
But so far, foreign companies don't want to transfer their technology to China, even if they use market share exchange. The rapid scale of photovoltaic industry in China began when foreign companies moved all the photovoltaic equipment manufacturing industries to China, but there was no such opportunity in the field of photothermal power generation.
It is reported that Abengoa Solar, the largest Spanish solar company, has been stationed in China for four or five years, and has always wanted to operate the project independently in China, but refused to cooperate with local enterprises in China.
The person in charge of the above-mentioned central enterprises said that the core technology of photothermal power generation was monopolized by large foreign enterprises, with no pollution pressure and rich returns. For example, the profit of collector tubes can reach 200%-300%, and foreign enterprises have no electricity transfer. "We talked about cooperation with large enterprises such as Siemens and Abengoa, and promised to help them get the project in China, but they asked for technical cooperation, but these enterprises were unwilling to change technology for the project."
"No matter who wins the bid, the detailed design can't be done in China, and the installation and maintenance of light fields can't be done in China." An industry insider who did not want to be named told reporters, "I hope that the investors who finally won the bid can join hands with foreign companies, so the chances of success will be greater."
Access of central enterprises
"The country wants to control the electricity price within a certain range, but they don't know much about thermal power generation. A series of problems that they think are trivial can be solved by themselves in specific projects. " Huang Xiang, who participated in the Ordos project all the time, told reporters that he did not agree with the electricity price ceiling 1. 15 yuan/kwh set by the National Development and Reform Commission.
Huang Xiang believes that "for the first or the first few projects, we should not demand too much electricity price. We should not just think about making a particularly low price, but making a good price. We should not just look at the price. "
What's more, the Ordos project, which took many years, has already faced multiple additional costs in its initial stage. It is understood that after several years, the cost of preliminary exploration and scheme consultation of this project has reached 30 million yuan, which needs to be paid by the winning bidder.
In addition, the project is located in barragon Town, Hangjinqi, Ordos, covering an area of about 1.95 square kilometers, and the land cost is about 40-50 million yuan. "This is a piece of land that can develop farmland and pasture, with high price and unreasonable site selection. In fact, there are many dozens of dollars an acre or even free land, which is more suitable for building thermal power stations. "
Photothermal power generation is only applicable to areas where the annual sunshine radiation exceeds 2,000 kWh/m2 and the land slope cannot exceed 3%. The annual water consumption of this project is about 654.38+500,000 cubic meters, which is basically the same as that of thermal power. However, the project is short of water and can only be cooled by air, which may not only lead to a decrease of 65,438+0% in electric energy conversion rate, but also increase the investment cost. It is unreasonable to use the above electricity price to digest.
The strict requirements of the price ceiling may lead to the rejection of private enterprises with weak financial strength, weak financing ability and weak anti-risk ability, and the central enterprises with strong strength and great pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction will once again take the stage collectively. The reporter learned that as of the middle of 165438+ 10, CGNPC, Datang, Guodian, China Energy Conservation and Abengoa had purchased the bidding documents, and central enterprises accounted for 80%.
"Every power generation group is very optimistic about new energy sources." A person in charge of the five major power giants bluntly told reporters, "In order to increase the share of renewable energy, everyone has worked very hard."
At present, the five major power generation groups have their own small-scale solar thermal power generation demonstration projects. Some analysts pointed out that these enterprises may significantly reduce their bid prices by expanding their scale in the future in order to win the 50 MW thermal power project first. The reason is self-evident. The larger the scale of photothermal power generation, the lower the electricity price cost per kWh. The winning project can be used as a part of a larger capacity power station in the future, winning the bid at a low electricity price first, and then allocating the cost to subsequent construction projects.
There are also media reports that major power groups have begun to enclosure in the field of thermal power generation. China's land resources suitable for developing photothermal power generation are limited. "Whoever goes to the project first will be given the land, and everyone will naturally flock to reserve a lot of land for subsequent expansion."
Three years ago, among the five major power generation groups, only Huadian followed the Chinese Academy of Sciences to do demonstration projects. In the past six months, about 3 million kilowatts of thermal power projects have completed project proposals, and several major power giants have privately operated some undisclosed projects. A person from the Turpan Photothermal Power Generation Project of Guodian Group once said that its project is only 100 kW, but the enclosure is several thousand mu, which is precisely for large-scale expansion in the future.
The ultra-low price monopoly of central enterprises that has emerged in the field of photovoltaic power generation seems to be about to be staged in the field of photothermal power generation. In this way, if the low electricity price of thermal power continues, it will not only fail to improve the return on investment and attract more social capital to participate, but also affect the introduction of targeted subsidy policies.
"The government's understanding of solar thermal power projects is not enough, and it is not so familiar with the market prospects." The above-mentioned thermoelectric equipment manufacturers said that if thermoelectric projects want to be promoted stably for a long time, they must have targeted policy support, so that bank financing will follow up accordingly.
There are contradictions at the decision-making level. For example, ultra-white glass is the basic raw material for producing condenser lenses for photothermal power generation, but the glass manufacturing industry has been designated as a key area to eliminate backward production capacity by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the bank's suspension of loans to the glass manufacturing industry will inevitably affect the production of upstream raw materials for photothermal power generation.
On August 20 10, American energy foundation entrusted Shanghai zhongke clean energy technology development center to investigate the solar thermal power generation market in China. The conclusion of the study is that China's support for renewable energy is positively related to its attention. Although the types of support policies are relatively complete, there is a policy phenomenon of following the trend, which is not long-term and stable.
"Today's energy is hot, and policies are rushing to come; Tomorrow, when the energy is hot, the policies here will suddenly disappear and everyone will go to that field. This will prevent investors from seeing stable market returns. " Gong Siyuan, the person in charge of the above research, told the reporter.
Analysis report.