Iraq -
U.S. Withdrawal Does Not Equal Peace
On August 31, 2010, U.S. combat troops withdrew from Iraq. Although the existence of a pro-U.S. regime in Iraq has ensured U.S. strategic interests in the Middle East, the war has left Iraq divided and terrorized, violent and bloody. According to statistics, 2,828 Iraqis died in various types of violence last year***. Along with the withdrawal of American combat troops, the various political forces in Iraq are engaged in a struggle for power and profit. Under these circumstances, the Al-Qaida organization and various armed groups have taken advantage of the situation to continue to cause terrorist and violent incidents. In addition, after the withdrawal of the United States combat troops, the Iraqi security forces and police will take up front-line combat and patrol duties, the quality and capability of which have been widely questioned. In fact, the security situation in Iraq has not substantially improved since September last year, and 661 people have died in various types of violent conflicts, accounting for nearly 23.4% of the death toll last year. In the Iraqi domestic political struggle is difficult to settle down and the Iraqi security forces are difficult to rapidly improve the capacity of the situation, the Iraqi people will still face and endure continued violence and death.
Afghanistan--
U.S. troop surge does not equal Taliban defeat
The withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq is a way of focusing counterterrorism energies and resources more on the war in Afghanistan. at the end of 2009, the Obama administration endorsed a new strategic plan to combat the Taliban, and to that end, it increased the troop strength by 30,000 men. The plan was characterized by a de-emphasis on counter-terrorism and an emphasis on counter-insurgency, i.e., less tracking of Taliban fighters and more efforts to provide security to the local population in order to weaken the Taliban's base of existence. Over the past year, the coalition forces in Afghanistan have launched several rounds of siege operations, which have achieved some results, but their own casualties have also risen sharply. Last year, the coalition forces in Afghanistan *** 711 people were killed in action, the largest number of casualties since the outbreak of the war in Afghanistan in 2001. Last December 16, the United States on the war in Afghanistan, the progress report concluded that the coalition forces have made significant progress, but the war is still "very difficult". The Obama administration continues to insist on the partial withdrawal of U.S. troops from July this year, and the gradual transfer of security responsibilities to the Afghan security forces, ultimately realizing the "Afghan people ruling Afghanistan". Although the Western countries hope to throw away this piece of Afghanistan as soon as possible "hot potato", but the Afghan government can pick their own burden is still a great uncertainty, once the coalition forces began to withdraw in the middle of this year, the Taliban forces are likely to come back.
Pakistan --
The task of combating terrorism remains daunting
Pakistan's security situation improved last year. Government forces killed 5,170 terrorists throughout the year, while 469 of their own were killed in action, and civilian deaths numbered 1,796, all three figures down considerably from 2009. The Pakistani Taliban is now the number one counter-terrorism target of the Pakistani government, and its strength has risen rapidly in recent years, causing an increasing impact on the domestic security situation in Pakistan, and even key places such as the Pakistani army and navy headquarters and the High Court of Justice have all become targets of its attacks. In July last year, the United States announced a $500 million aid package to Pakistan, aimed at helping Pakistan's economic development and easing anti-American sentiments among the Pakistani people. This puts the Pakistani government in a dilemma: if it hits the Taliban hard, it will stir up a wave of domestic opposition. If the Taliban lightly, the United States will be accused of "taking money and not doing anything". This year, Pakistan's terrorist organizations will continue to create a number of terrorist violence, the Pakistani government's counter-terrorism task is still difficult.
Middle East--
Palestinian-Israeli peace talks difficult to get out of the strange circle
Under the pressure and mediation of the United States, the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, which had been suspended for 20 months, restarted with difficulty again in September last year. Although the U.S. said the talks would resolve the issue within a year, in reality, the two sides did not have much confidence in the peace talks, but instead blamed each other before the talks. Historical experience has shown that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is very fragile, and the whole process is full of too many uncertainties. Any one of these negative factors could bring the peace process back to square one. The two sides have too many grievances and each has its own powerful domestic constraints, so it is very difficult for the two sides to get out of the "peace talks-breakdown-conflict-resumption of talks" circle. The possibility of a certain degree of conflict between the two sides this year is extremely high.
Sudan --
Entering a critical moment in history
Sudan's Darfur peace process has made significant progress. On February 23 last year, a special session of the Darfur peace talks was held in Doha, and a ceasefire agreement was signed between the Sudanese government and the opposition Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). on July 10, the leaders of the major political parties in the north and south of the Sudan formally launched talks on the referendum in southern Sudan. on July 14, the leaders of the former Sudanese rebel group, the major political parties in the south, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) said that they would fully implement the Darfur referendum. The Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) said it would participate fully in the mediation between the Government of Sudan and the Darfur rebels.
However, there are still several armed groups fighting each other in Darfur, and there are still variables in achieving lasting peace. Sudan entered a critical moment in its history when a referendum was held on Jan. 9 this year on whether the south should become independent. Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, there is still the possibility of a new armed conflict. The security situation in the Sudan will not be turned around quickly and completely by a referendum.
SOMALIA -
Al-Shabaab is more dangerous than pirates
Somalia is one of the most volatile countries in Africa today, and could well become a future source of terror in Africa.
The danger in Somalia does not really come from Somali pirates, but from Somalia's Al-Shabaab, an armed opposition group with close ties to Al-Qaida. The organization has pledged allegiance to al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden. The organization has pledged allegiance to Al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden, and advocates ruling Somalia in strict accordance with sharia law. The international community's attention to the movement of Al-Shabaab in Somalia has been deepening.
In recent years, Somalia's Al-Shabaab has taken advantage of the civil unrest in Somalia to rapidly expand its power, and in 2009 almost captured the capital, Mogadishu, but was repulsed and still controls most of the country.
Since 2010, in addition to continuing to fight with the Somali government forces, the organization has also extended its terrorist tentacles to the neighboring country of Uganda, and on July 11th, two bombings in the outskirts of Uganda's capital city, Kampala, were caused. The organization has also extended its reach into neighboring Uganda and caused two bombings outside the Ugandan capital Kampala on July 11. In order to cope with the growing threat of terrorism in Somalia, African countries have established a number of counter-terrorism mechanisms at different levels, and the United States has also implemented a number of counter-terrorism regional security plans in Africa, including the Trans-Sahara Counter-Terrorism Initiative (TSCTI) and the East African Countries Initiative (EACI), etc. However, these mechanisms are not yet capable of effectively responding to the Somali crisis. Somalia's al-Shabaab forces are likely to grow further this year and engage in more intense competition with government forces.
Korean Peninsula --
Security pressures high, but outbreak of large-scale conflict unlikely
The Korean Peninsula has one of the highest levels of armed confrontation in the world today, but there has been no outbreak of armed conflict between the north and south of Korea since the end of the Cold War.
In 2010, the Korean Peninsula witnessed the Cheonan incident and the Yonphyong Island shelling, which sharply increased the risk of conflict and even war on the peninsula. But the lack of willingness of the two sides to resume fighting and the strong mediation of the international community, including China, have gradually calmed things down.
With the US, South Korea and Japan laying down preconditions for the resumption of inter-Korean direct talks and the six-party talks, and with the US unwilling to make substantial efforts to normalize US-North Korea relations, North Korea is still likely to make some moves in the future. The security pressure on the peninsula is high, but the possibility of a large-scale conflict is low.
This version of the article is written by the author from the
Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
This year, it is difficult for major armed conflicts to take place globally, and there will be no notable changes in the overall situation. The number of armed conflicts may be basically the same as that of the previous year, and it is more likely that transnational armed conflicts with the participation of several countries and internal armed conflicts will take place. The former include the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the war in Afghanistan, while the latter are mainly concentrated in South Asia, South-East Asia and Africa. The reasons for the occurrence and continuation of conflicts are complex, including separatism, ideology, religion and ethnic tensions. Most of the conflicts have been going on for many years, and the situation is difficult to change in the short term
Iraq -
U.S. Withdrawal Doesn't Equal Peace
On August 31, 2010, U.S. combat troops withdrew from Iraq. Although the existence of a pro-U.S. regime in Iraq has ensured U.S. strategic interests in the Middle East, the war has left Iraq divided and terrorized, violent and bloody. According to statistics, 2,828 Iraqis died in various types of violence last year***. Along with the withdrawal of American combat troops, the various political forces in Iraq are engaged in a struggle for power and profit. Under these circumstances, the Al-Qaida organization and various armed groups have taken advantage of the situation to continue to cause terrorist and violent incidents. In addition, after the withdrawal of the United States combat troops, the Iraqi security forces and police will take up front-line combat and patrol duties, the quality and capability of which have been widely questioned. In fact, the security situation in Iraq has not substantially improved since September last year, and 661 people have died in various types of violent conflicts, accounting for nearly 23.4% of the death toll last year. In the Iraqi domestic political struggle is difficult to settle down and the Iraqi security forces are difficult to rapidly improve the capacity of the situation, the Iraqi people will still face and endure continued violence and death.
Afghanistan--
U.S. troop surge does not equal Taliban defeat
The withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq is a way of concentrating counterterrorism efforts and resources more on the war in Afghanistan. at the end of 2009, the Obama administration approved a new strategic plan to combat the Taliban, and to that end, it increased the troop strength by 30,000 people. The plan was characterized by a de-emphasis on counter-terrorism and an emphasis on counter-insurgency, i.e., less tracking of Taliban fighters and more efforts to provide security to the local population in order to weaken the Taliban's base of existence. Over the past year, the coalition forces in Afghanistan have launched several rounds of siege operations, which have achieved some results, but their own casualties have also risen sharply. Last year, the coalition forces in Afghanistan *** 711 people were killed in action, the largest number of casualties since the outbreak of the war in Afghanistan in 2001. Last December 16, the United States on the war in Afghanistan, the progress report concluded that the coalition forces have made significant progress, but the war is still "very difficult". The Obama administration continues to insist on the partial withdrawal of U.S. troops from July this year, and the gradual transfer of security responsibilities to the Afghan security forces, ultimately realizing the "Afghan people ruling Afghanistan". Although the Western countries hope to throw away this piece of Afghanistan as soon as possible "hot potato", but the Afghan government can pick their own burden is still a great uncertainty, once the coalition forces began to withdraw in the middle of this year, the Taliban forces are likely to come back.
Pakistan --
The task of combating terrorism remains daunting
Pakistan's security situation improved last year. Government forces killed 5,170 terrorists throughout the year, while 469 of their own were killed in action, and civilian deaths numbered 1,796, all three figures down considerably from 2009. The Pakistani Taliban is now the number one counter-terrorism target of the Pakistani government, and its strength has risen rapidly in recent years, causing an increasing impact on the domestic security situation in Pakistan, and even key places such as the Pakistani army and navy headquarters and the High Court of Justice have all become targets of its attacks. In July last year, the United States announced that it would provide a $500 million aid program to Pakistan, aiming to help Pakistan develop its economy and ease anti-American sentiments among Pakistani citizens. This puts the Pakistani government in a dilemma: if it hits the Taliban hard, it will stir up a wave of domestic opposition. If the Taliban lightly, the United States will be accused of "taking money and not doing anything". This year, Pakistan's terrorist organizations will continue to create a number of terrorist violence, the Pakistani government's counter-terrorism task is still difficult.
Middle East--
Palestinian-Israeli peace talks difficult to get out of the strange circle
Under the pressure and mediation of the United States, the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, which had been suspended for 20 months, restarted with difficulty again in September last year. Although the U.S. said the talks would resolve the problem within a year, in reality, the two sides did not have much confidence in the peace talks, but instead blamed each other before the talks. Historical experience has shown that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is very fragile, and the whole process is full of too many uncertainties. Any one of these negative factors could bring the peace process back to square one. The two sides have too many grievances and each has its own powerful domestic constraints, so it is difficult for the two sides to get out of the "peace talks-breakdown-conflict-resumption of talks" circle. The possibility of a certain degree of conflict between the two sides this year is extremely high.
Sudan --
Entering a critical moment in history
Sudan's Darfur peace process has made significant progress. On February 23 last year, a special session of the Darfur peace talks was held in Doha, and a ceasefire agreement was signed between the Sudanese government and the opposition Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). on July 10, the leaders of the major political parties in the north and south of the Sudan formally launched talks on the referendum in southern Sudan. on July 14, the leaders of the former Sudanese rebel group, the major political parties in the south, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) said that they would fully implement the Darfur referendum. The Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) said it would participate fully in the mediation between the Government of Sudan and the Darfur rebels.
However, there are still several armed groups fighting each other in Darfur, and there are still uncertainties in achieving lasting peace. Sudan entered a critical moment in its history when a referendum was held on Jan. 9 this year on whether the south should become independent. Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, there is still the possibility of a new armed conflict. The security situation in the Sudan will not be turned around quickly and completely by a referendum.
SOMALIA -
Al-Shabaab is more dangerous than pirates
Somalia is one of the most volatile countries in Africa today, and could well become a future source of terror in Africa.
The danger in Somalia does not really come from Somali pirates, but from Somalia's Al-Shabaab, an armed opposition group with close ties to Al-Qaida. The organization has pledged allegiance to al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden. The organization has pledged allegiance to Al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden, and advocates ruling Somalia in strict accordance with sharia law. The international community's attention to the movement of Al-Shabaab in Somalia has been deepening.
In recent years, Somalia's Al-Shabaab has taken advantage of the civil unrest in Somalia to rapidly expand its power, and in 2009 almost captured the capital, Mogadishu, but was repulsed and still controls most of the country.
Since 2010, in addition to continuing to fight with the Somali government forces, the organization has also extended its terrorist tentacles to the neighboring country of Uganda, and on July 11th, two bombings in the outskirts of Uganda's capital city, Kampala, were caused. The organization has also extended its reach into neighboring Uganda and caused two bombings outside the Ugandan capital Kampala on July 11. In order to cope with the growing threat of terrorism in Somalia, African countries have established a number of counter-terrorism mechanisms at different levels, and the United States has also implemented a number of counter-terrorism regional security plans in Africa, including the Trans-Sahara Counter-Terrorism Initiative (TSCTI) and the East African Countries Initiative (EACI), etc. However, these mechanisms are not yet capable of effectively responding to the Somali crisis. Somalia's al-Shabaab forces are likely to grow further this year and engage in more intense competition with government forces.
Korean Peninsula --
Security pressures high, but outbreak of large-scale conflict unlikely
The Korean Peninsula has one of the highest levels of armed confrontation in the world today, but there has been no outbreak of armed conflict between the north and south of Korea since the end of the Cold War.
In 2010, the Korean Peninsula witnessed the Cheonan incident and the Yonphyong Island shelling, which sharply increased the risk of conflict and even war on the peninsula. But the lack of willingness of the two sides to resume fighting and the strong mediation of the international community, including China, have gradually calmed things down.
With the US, South Korea and Japan laying down preconditions for the resumption of inter-Korean direct talks and the six-party talks, and with the US unwilling to make substantial efforts to normalize US-North Korea relations, North Korea is still likely to make some moves in the future. The security pressure on the peninsula is high, but the possibility of a large-scale conflict is low.
This version of the article was written by the author from the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences