According to the prevailing calculation method, foreign trade dependence refers to the ratio of a country's total foreign trade to its gross domestic product, which is not only used to measure the degree of a country's economic dependence on the international market, but also reflects the degree of openness of a country's economy at the same time. International experience shows that only from the figures, from the total trade volume on the examination of the level of foreign trade dependence can not really measure the degree of foreign dependence of China's economy, because there are many factors affecting and exaggerating the degree of China's foreign trade dependence. Specifically, China's foreign trade dependence on the high degree of analysis of the reasons are as follows:
Foreign trade structure of the processing trade in a larger proportion of the total amount of import and export of processing trade in 2005 was 690.5 billion U.S. dollars in total imports and exports in the proportion of the total amount of imports and exports rose to 48.6%, accounting for almost half of the total trade. Due to foreign processing only a small amount of fees, there is no excessive value-added, domestic procurement, matching rate is also low, that is, China from other countries to import a large number of raw materials and intermediate products, assembly and then exported to foreign countries. This in and out to be summarized and then divided by the year's GDP, making foreign trade dependence clearly have the ingredients of the inflated.
Domestic industrial structure is dominated by manufacturing, the proportion of tertiary industry is low, is an important reason for the high degree of foreign trade dependence. Generally speaking, due to the lower tradability of the tertiary industry, the higher the proportion of the tertiary industry in the composition of GDP, the lower the degree of foreign trade dependence may be. At present, the proportion of the tertiary industry in the GDP composition of the United States has exceeded 75%, while our country is only about 33%.
The growth rate of foreign trade is significantly higher than the growth rate of GDP. The growth rate of GDP, the denominator, has averaged only about 9% in recent years, but the growth rate of foreign trade imports and exports, the numerator, has averaged more than 30%. When GDP is maintained at a relatively stable growth rate, the higher the growth rate of foreign trade, the faster its relative growth rate, the higher the degree of foreign trade dependence.
Changes in the exchange rate directly affect the level of foreign trade dependence. Overall, the undervaluation of the yuan is another important reason for the increase in China's foreign trade dependence. According to the current exchange rate, China's foreign trade dependence is indeed high. But according to the World Bank according to purchasing power parity estimates, the yuan and the dollar purchasing power ratio of 4:1, according to this calculation, China's foreign trade dependence will be reduced by half, below the world average.
China's high dependence on foreign trade is China's foreign-invested enterprises rely too much on the economic structure of the inevitable reflection. According to the Ministry of Commerce statistics, in 2004, the country's largest export volume of 200 enterprises, 77% of foreign-funded enterprises; import and export volume of the largest 500 enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises accounted for 62%. In terms of the numerator of the ratio of foreign trade dependence, a large part of China's huge foreign trade is actually created by foreign-invested enterprises in China, especially in the export of foreign-invested enterprises is larger than the export of other enterprises, from 2001 to 2004, foreign-invested enterprises accounted for the export of China's total exports of 50.1%, 52.2%, 54.8%, and 57.1% in turn. From the denominator of this ratio, the gross domestic product also includes foreign-invested enterprises in China
contributed part, but because of foreign-invested enterprises is mainly characterized by "big in and big out, both outside", the tendency of foreign trade is much higher than that of other domestic enterprises. It can be seen, foreign-invested enterprises, "big in big out, both ends out" this business behavior, but also to a certain extent, pull up the degree of dependence on foreign trade.
The impact of higher foreign trade dependence on China's economy
In fact, foreign trade dependence is a "double-edged sword", and its increase and change on the one hand, China's more proactive participation in the international economy, to improve China's economic status and influence, on the other hand, also for China's economic development has brought new risks and On the other hand, it also brings new risks and influences to China's economic development. In general, as China's foreign trade continues to grow, the continued growth of foreign trade dependence will bring different degrees of impact on foreign trade and domestic economic development. These effects are mainly:
Increased foreign trade friction
Since the scale of China's exports continues to expand, China's exports have encountered a marked increase in foreign anti-dumping and safeguard measures investigations. During the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, the number of anti-dumping cases filed in China were: 55 cases in 2001, 51 cases in 2002, 47 cases in 2003 and 57 cases in 2004. 2005, China's foreign trade friction has entered the "high incidence" period, and has been subjected to repeated attacks by the United States, the European Union, the European Union, the United States, the European Union, the United States, the United States, the United States and other countries. In 2005, China's foreign trade friction even entered a "high incidence period", and has been repeatedly subjected to anti-dumping investigations by the United States, the European Union, India and other countries and regions. China has become the country that suffers the most anti-dumping investigations in the world. In addition, anti-subsidy, green barriers, technical barriers and other issues have also become some other countries and regions to deal with our domestic
products of the way. It can be seen that the development of China's foreign trade and the increasing dependence on foreign trade has made China's foreign trade has inevitably entered the era of international economic friction.
Impact on national economic security
Energy, mineral resources, certain key equipment and parts and components of the high degree of dependence on imports is easy to make the country's economic lifeblood subject to others. Once the international economy fluctuates, the domestic economy is bound to have some difficulties. At present, China's oil dependence on foreign countries is about 35%, according to expert estimates, by 2020, China's oil dependence on foreign countries will reach 60%, a large part of China's oil supply will rely on international supply. How to effectively reduce China's dependence on foreign countries for important strategic resources is an important problem that we need to pay serious attention to and solve. In addition, at present, China's imports are mainly manufactured goods, of which capital goods and high-tech products occupy a dominant position, which reflects the high dependence of China's domestic industries on international high-tech and capital goods, and the relative lagging behind of China's domestic industries in scientific research and development. With the growing number of imports of important strategic materials, key products
and technologies, the impact of imports on national economic security will be further increased.
Impact on the development of domestic industries
China's high foreign trade dependence is mainly manifested in the export of labor-intensive products on the comparative advantage. Therefore, textile and clothing, footwear, toys and other products have been China's bulk export commodities, but these industries have actually appeared in the situation of supply exceeds demand, and the continuous expansion of this low value-added industries is not conducive to the upgrading of China's domestic industrial structure and increase the difficulty in realizing the goal of improving the competitive advantage of foreign trade. The rising dependence on foreign trade highlights the irrational development of China's industrial structure, the development of tertiary industry is still lagging behind the reality.
Deteriorating terms of trade
China's exports are mainly labor-intensive products, while imports are mainly capital- and technology-intensive products. Generally speaking, the price elasticity of supply and demand is higher for the former and lower for the latter. This asymmetric price elasticity of supply and demand leads to the fact that in the import of capital- and technology-intensive products, China's dependence on imported products is greater than the dependence of other countries on China's supply. Especially in recent years, China's large imports of energy and a variety of resource products, the price elasticity of demand is relatively low, that is to say, regardless of what happens to the international market price changes, China's demand for imports will maintain a certain level of growth, and our country is a large country, once a large number of imports, but also caused by the rise in the international market price, which not only exacerbates China's dependence on overseas products such as energy, but also deteriorate Terms of trade to reduce China's economic welfare.