Producer/analyst: TF Securities Li Lujing.
1. 1. Taking advantage of the spring breeze of new energy, lithium battery equipment is leading in China.
Lithium battery equipment is leading in China.
Founded in 20 14, the company is mainly engaged in research and development, production and sales of intelligent manufacturing equipment, and its products cover lithium batteries, auto parts, precision electronics, security, rail transit and other industries.
While deeply cultivating the lithium battery industry, the company actively develops high-quality customers in auto parts, precision electronics, rail transit, security and other industries to enhance its position in the intelligent manufacturing equipment industry.
The company is one of the leading enterprises in the field of lithium battery manufacturing equipment. The company is one of the few manufacturers in China with the manufacturing capabilities of R&D and power battery cell assembly, battery module assembly and intelligent complete sets of equipment for luggage, among which the overall technology of square power battery cell assembly line is also at the international advanced level.
With the technical advantages, the company has established long-term and stable cooperative relations with well-known manufacturers such as new energy technology, contemporary Ampere technology, BYD, Li Shen, AVIC lithium battery and Xinwangda.
In auto parts, precision electronics, security, rail transit and other industries, the company actively explores high-quality customers and has established stable cooperative relations with well-known enterprises in downstream industries such as Aisin Seiki, Multimatic and Lingyun.
The equipment developed and produced by the company has been exported and applied to the rolling parts factory in Germany, which is a successful case of domestic intelligent equipment entering developed countries.
The product range is gradually enriched and the coverage is constantly broadened.
The company's lithium battery special plane products continue to increase, basically covering all the process plates in the middle and late stages of lithium batteries; The company continues to develop a full range of auto parts products and complete the upgrade of the digital car body workshop.
At the same time, the company's research and development of key technologies has promoted the continuous improvement of key technical indicators, and gradually realized the research and development and production of all products in the fields of precision electronics, security, rail transit, medical care and health.
Figure 2: Development history of the company's products
1.2. Revenue continued to climb, with 202 1H 1 showing outstanding performance.
2016-2021h1,the lithium battery manufacturing equipment business promoted the rapid expansion of the company's revenue/net profit. In 2020, Yuan Heng will realize operating income/net profit10.43 billion10.40 billion, up by 60.87%/50.89% year-on-year. From 20 16 to 2020, the company's operating income grew rapidly, with CAGR+58.08%, mainly due to the rapid growth of lithium battery manufacturing equipment business income. 20 16 to 2020, the net profit attributable to the parent company is CAGR+82.72%.
At the same time, Li 202 1H 1 performed well. 202 1H 1 company operating income/net profit10.47 million/99 million, up 108.45438+0%/998.63% year-on-year.
In the case of rapid income growth, the profit rate decreased slightly relative to the profit growth rate. In 2020, the company's gross profit margin/net interest rate was 38.33%/9.82%, an increase of-1.34/-0.65pct year-on-year.
The company's main business is divided into intelligent manufacturing equipment and accessories and services.
Intelligent manufacturing equipment business includes lithium battery manufacturing equipment, automobile parts manufacturing equipment and manufacturing equipment in other fields; Manufacturing equipment in other fields is mainly new products such as notebook computer assembly line, server assembly workshop and automatic mask production line actively developed by the company. Intelligent manufacturing equipment business may still be the main source of growth for the company.
As the core business of the company's intelligent manufacturing equipment, the lithium battery manufacturing equipment business achieved revenue of165438+89 million yuan in 2020, up by 53 16% year-on-year, accounting for 84.03% of the company's main business. 18-20, the compound annual growth rate of parts and services business is as high as 65. 19%, but the overall volume is small, and the revenue in 2020 will not exceed 5%.
In the short term, we expect that the intelligent manufacturing equipment business may still be the main source of growth for the company. Driven by the rapid growth of intelligent manufacturing equipment business, related accessories, value-added and service businesses are also expected to expand rapidly.
1.3. The company's shareholding structure is stable and its founder has a technical background.
The actual controller * * * holds 5 1.42%, and the equity is relatively concentrated. Zhou indirectly controls 45.57% of the shares of the company through investment, and indirectly controls 3. 17% of the shares of the company through Hongbang investment. His spouse Lu Jiahong directly holds 2.68% of the company's shares, and Zhou and Lu Jiahong jointly hold 5 1.42% of the company's shares, which is the actual controller of the company.
Zhou, with a technical background and rich industry experience, was awarded the leading talent of science and technology entrepreneurship in Guangdong Province on 20 19. The project "Key Technology and Industrialization of Power Battery Core-making Equipment" declared by the main finisher won the Guangdong Science and Technology Progress Award in 20 19. Thanks to the excellent senior management team, the future development of the enterprise can be expected.
1.4. The completion of the fundraising project will further enhance the company's market competitiveness.
After deducting the issuance expenses, the company plans to invest in the industrial robot intelligent equipment production project and the industrial robot intelligent equipment R&D center project to supplement the company's liquidity needs. The total investment of the project is 795 13. 1 1 ten thousand yuan.
The industrial robot intelligent equipment production project is the expansion of the company's existing business capabilities, aiming at expanding the company's production capacity, reducing product costs and enhancing the market competitiveness of the company's products by introducing advanced automated production equipment and systems on the basis of the company's existing production research and development technology.
The industrial robot intelligent equipment research and development center project will make the quality and cost of the company's products more competitive. The research and development of new technology aims at making breakthroughs in laser technology, intelligent control technology and man-machine cooperation technology, and making the quality and cost of the company's products more competitive.
2. 1. electric vehicles: car companies promote the development of electric vehicles, and the demand for lithium batteries continues to rise.
The penetration rate of electric vehicles in car companies has greatly increased. According to our calculation, in 2020, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in major automobile enterprises will be significantly higher than that in 20 19. Represented by Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler, the electrification progress of individual enterprises is relatively slow.
Car companies have started the tide of electrification development, and it is estimated that the demand for lithium batteries will reach more than 800GWH by 2025.
According to the electric vehicle planning of Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Toyota and Hyundai, we predict that the global demand for electric vehicles will reach15.68 million by 2025, and the penetration rate of the automobile market will reach 17% in that year.
The strong demand for electric vehicles is expected to drive the total demand for lithium batteries to about 809GWH, including 747GWH for pure electric vehicles and 62GWH for hybrid vehicles.
2.2. Forklifts and power tools: The demand for lithium batteries is also very strong.
Forklift trucks are another demand for power batteries. The White Paper on the Development of Electric Forklift Industry in China shows that by 2020, the electrification degree of forklifts in China will reach 5 1.27%, and the penetration rate of lithium-ion forklifts will be about 39.30%.
Assuming that the compound growth rate of forklift industry in the next five years is 65,438+00% and the penetration rate of lithium-ion forklift will be increased to 60%, we estimate that the demand for lithium-ion batteries in forklift industry will reach about 37GWH.
The demand for lithium batteries for power tools is growing rapidly.
Power tools show the general trend of cordless+lithium electrification. We predict that the demand for lithium batteries for power tools will reach 17.76GWH by 2025.
2.3. Energy storage: the cost reduction of lithium batteries+subsidies drive the rapid release of market demand for energy storage.
Energy storage subsidy policies have been introduced continuously in various places, which has driven the demand of energy storage market. As more and more regions begin to introduce subsidies for energy storage projects, we believe that the energy storage market has great potential and is expected to become the next important growth level of lithium batteries.
2.4. The market space of power battery is vast, and there is still a big gap in production capacity.
The demand for power lithium batteries is not only driven by electric vehicles, but also driven by construction machinery+power tools+energy storage+two-wheeled vehicles. Assuming the capacity utilization rate is 65%, we predict that the overall demand for power lithium batteries is expected to reach 17 14GWH by 2025.
If lithium battery manufacturers can achieve the capacity utilization rate of 100%, they need114gwh, but battery manufacturers often cannot achieve the capacity utilization rate of 100%. The main reasons for this situation are:
1) It takes a long time for the battery production line to switch between different batteries;
2) Battery manufacturers generally expand production ahead of schedule, so the current year's production capacity does not match the current year's demand 100%, and the general production capacity is too large;
3) A large number of battery production lines are constantly being debugged and updated;
4) The battery industry still attracts new entrants to join the competition, especially European and American manufacturers, and the prisoner's dilemma still exists.
According to the ratio of global head enterprises' production capacity to total lithium battery shipments in recent years, there is still a big gap between the supply side and the demand side.
3. 1.R&D invests in many leading industries and has strong ability to transform scientific and technological achievements.
Company products cover application layer and execution layer. Based on the understanding of downstream industry processes and continuous investment in technology research and development, the company independently develops software and systems, integrates advanced technologies such as sensor technology, machine vision technology, robot technology, intelligent control technology, software technology and laser technology, and customizes and develops intelligent manufacturing solutions for downstream industry customers to help and promote the improvement of intelligent manufacturing level of downstream manufacturing industry.
Figure 9: Product coverage of the company
The proportion of R&D investment is higher than that of industry competitors.
The company focuses on intelligent manufacturing equipment technology research and development, process development, product design and so on. And put R&D accumulation and technological innovation in the first place in enterprise development.
The company's three-layer automatic cold and hot compaction capacity tester and square power battery cell assembly line in the field of lithium batteries are at the international advanced level; The overall technology of automatic assembly testing line for phase shifter is at the domestic advanced level, and some indicators have reached the international advanced level.
The company's R&D model is the same as that of comparable companies in the same industry, and R&D investment accounts for a high proportion of operating income. Compared with the R&D expense ratio of the same industry, it is as follows:
The investment in R&D has achieved results, and the enterprise has a strong technical reserve.
The company has mastered the frontier and core technologies of the industry, including imaging detection, integrated control, intelligent decision-making, laser processing, flexible assembly, digital twinning and other core technologies.
By April of 2002 1 and1,the company had 700 patents. These technologies provide a foundation for the company to apply assembly equipment, assembly equipment, welding equipment and testing equipment in intelligent manufacturing equipment. Scientific and technological achievements are deeply integrated with cross-domain customers in different industries, and the market response is good.
The company's scientific and technological achievements are finally manifested in standardized or personalized automatic complete sets of equipment in different application fields, and its scientific and technological level reflects the advanced production technology in lithium batteries, auto parts and other fields.
At present, Li's scientific and technological achievements involve multiple processes, are rich in in-depth research, have the planning, design and implementation strength of the overall solution, and are deeply integrated with customers in different industries and cross-fields. The company's products have been well reflected in the market and achieved certain economic and social benefits.
3.2. Deeply bind the downstream lithium battery faucet, and the enterprise will develop steadily and continuously.
In the global consumption field of soft-pack lithium batteries, the shipments of new energy technologies continue to account for more than 30% of the global shipments. According to the Japanese B3 report, from 2014 to 2020, the global shipments of lithium batteries for flexible packaging consumption increased by 26.7 10 billion, and the shipments of new energy technologies increased by 930 million in the same period, accounting for more than 35. 16% of the global increase.
The procurement scale of new energy technology and equipment is large, while the business scale of the company is small. The company mainly provides equipment for new energy technologies, and the income of the largest customer accounts for a relatively high proportion. In the field of China Power Lithium Battery, in the past three years, the total installed capacity of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., BYD, Li Shen and AVIC among the top five customers of the company accounted for more than 60%, with a high concentration; The installed capacity of China Power Lithium Battery increased from 56.90Gwh to 64Gwh, an increase of 7. 1Gwh. The installed capacity of these four customers increased by 8Gwh, exceeding the overall growth rate of the industry in the same period.
New energy technology is a leading enterprise in the consumption of lithium batteries, especially soft-package lithium batteries. In the last three years, the shipment volume ranked first in the world, and the market share continued to be above 30%.
According to "20 19 Top 100 Enterprises in China Battery Industry", the operating income of ningde new energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Dongguan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is 28.806 billion yuan and1255.6 billion yuan respectively, totaling 4136.3 billion yuan, making them the largest lithium battery consumers in the list.
Equipment enterprises are deeply bound with the downstream lithium battery faucet and grow together.
Due to the important influence of equipment on the yield of battery products and the customization characteristics of equipment, equipment manufacturers have to go through multiple links and long-term certification, which is costly. Lithium battery manufacturers will not easily change major equipment suppliers.
After long-term problem feedback and refinement improvement, the production equipment has formed an equipment solution under the technical path of downstream battery manufacturers, and has the ability to manufacture and develop more demanding equipment.
The cooperation between the company and new energy technology has a long history and is stable and continuous. With excellent product quality, continuous technical improvement and excellent process indicators, the company has gradually upgraded its position in the new energy technology supply chain from the initial homogenization competition with other equipment suppliers.
The products sold by the company to new energy technology mainly include battery testing equipment and battery assembly equipment. On October 20 18, 165438 10, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with new energy technology and equipment, and the agreement was valid for three years.
As of May, 202 1, 1 1, the company's new energy technology in hand is about19.75 million yuan (including tax). The cooperation between the company and new energy technology is stable and sustainable.
3.3. The capacity utilization rate has steadily increased, and the production and sales rate of core products of lithium batteries has gradually picked up.
The company's product capacity utilization rate has steadily increased and always maintained a high level. The company's products are all customized equipment, and the size, process difficulty and number of parts of different equipment are quite different, so it is impossible to measure the company's capacity utilization rate according to the number of products.
The company's site area and the number of designers are sufficient, and the working hours of the company's own assembly and commissioning personnel do not reflect the company's production capacity, so the utilization rate of assembly and commissioning personnel reflects the company's production capacity utilization rate.
From 20 18 to 2020, the utilization rate of the company's assembly and debugging personnel was 1 18.04%, 126.08% and 124.30% respectively. From 20 18 to 20 19, with the growth of business, the utilization rate of the company's own assembly and debugging personnel has been continuously improved. In 2020, the utilization rate of the company's own assembly and commissioning personnel is the same as that in 20 19.
Lithium battery business is the core business of the company. In recent years, the demand for intelligent manufacturing in downstream industries has been increasing, which is mainly reflected in the rising technical indicators, the development trend of automation to intelligence, and the development of special planes to full-line and digital workshops.
In line with the development trend of the industry, the productivity and flexibility of the company's products have been continuously improved, and with the introduction and change of products in the whole line and digital workshop, the number of single full-line integrated special planes has been increasing.
From 20 18 to 2020, the production and sales rates of the company's lithium battery special plane products are 1 18.26%, 85.06% and 94.30% respectively; The production and sales rates of lithium battery products are 85.7 1%, 50.00% and 142.86% respectively. After technical adjustment and updating iteration, the production and sales rate of this territory gradually recovered.
3.4. Realize cross-domain application and provide professional solutions for multiple downstream industries.
Enterprises in the industry mainly use customized equipment in some production links of a downstream industry, so it is difficult to replicate production in batches across industries. The company has experience in non-standard customization projects in many application fields, and is committed to accumulating standardized technologies that can be applied to different downstream industries, so it has cross-domain application advantages.
The company decomposes the equipment experience in different fields into different process platforms, and gradually precipitates the process platforms into standardized platforms. On the basis of standardized process platform, internal technical modules further form common technologies to realize flexible application of the same technology or module in different downstream fields.
Figure 16: the company's multi-industry solutions
At present, the company has 15 kinds of process platforms. With the increase of application projects in the future, the company will further increase the number of process applications and have more professional advantages in providing solutions for different downstream industries.
3.5. Start a new journey of digital intelligence of lithium batteries with anemones.
Anemone intelligent manufacturing is a set of "digital intelligent full-line solutions" for lithium battery industry based on the company's deep understanding of customers' pain points in technology, manufacturing, quality, cost and management and forward-looking consideration of the direction of intelligent manufacturing. Anemone intelligence consists of "visible wisdom" intelligent equipment and "invisible wisdom" software system.
"Visible Wisdom" is based on equipment automation, which opens up the industrial network design behind it. Through data collection, data analysis, real-time monitoring, intelligent production scheduling and equipment forecasting and maintenance, the digital barrier from manufacturing operation and maintenance to enterprise management can be broken, the rationality, controllability and adaptability of the production process can be improved, the efficient allocation of production resources can be enhanced, and lean production can be realized.
"Invisible wisdom" is based on the Internet platform of the factory, the layout of the factory and the design system of the production line, optimizing the operation process and management strategy, and ensuring the management of R&D and process system.
The long-term development direction and blueprint planning are provided for enterprise management through the interconnection design of man-machine-material-law ring.
Figure 18: schematic diagram of data acquisition in lithium battery factory
The intelligent manufacturing of anemone adopts DIM data direct acquisition mode, which realizes the direct acquisition of field equipment layer data by MES system, breaks the chronic disease of low timeliness and incompleteness, and realizes accurate and high-speed acquisition of field data.
Infiltrate the whole process of lithium battery production, directly integrate the digital software system matched with Li intelligent manufacturing equipment from the bottom of the equipment, collect data according to the technological process of lithium battery production, quickly trace back, find and judge problems, and intelligently recommend the best scheme.
At the same time, the company established the technical standards of interconnected industrial Ethernet and power battery industry information network as the basis of digital transformation, and integrated the data of the group management system and other related systems, so as to set the data transmission direction, upload or release data synchronization mode, synchronization period and other related parameters.
At present, the company's main business can be divided into lithium battery field, automobile field, other fields and corresponding accessories and services. We estimate according to the company's business layout and historical performance:
1) lithium battery manufacturing equipment: the company's lithium battery business can be divided into two parts: consumer lithium batteries and power batteries.
(1) consumer lithium battery: ATL is a major downstream customer of consumer lithium battery. In recent years, the consumption of lithium batteries accounts for more than 70% of the company's total lithium battery business, and the proportion is still rising, mainly because the company's products penetrate into the whole process of lithium battery production, from battery testing to battery manufacturing and battery assembly, and the battery assembly plane has become a brand-new growth point of the company.
(2) Power battery: The downstream customers of the company's power battery business include Li Shen, BYD, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and other head battery factories. According to the above description, the power battery has ushered in a new round of expansion. At present, the company's power battery business is small, and the growth rate is expected to be obvious in the next few years.
Combined with the company's on-hand orders, as of August 25th, the on-hand orders for consumer lithium batteries were 65.438+77 billion yuan (including tax) and the on-hand orders for power lithium batteries were 2.784 billion yuan (including tax). We predict that this business will have a rapid growth rate in 265.438+0-23 years, and the corresponding income will be 265.438+0.77 respectively.
2) Automobile parts manufacturing equipment:
The proportion of this business of the company is relatively small, and the overall business is in a stable situation. The company does not invest much in this business in R&D, and the completion speed of fixed assets investment in automobile manufacturing industry has slowed down in recent years.
It is estimated that in 2 1-23 years, the automobile business will maintain a small growth of 10%, and the corresponding income will be 0.32, 0.35 and 0.39 billion yuan respectively.
3) Accessories and services business:
This business is the value-added income brought by other businesses of the company. Combined with the overall compound growth rate of the company in recent years, it is estimated that the growth rate will be 45% in 2 1-23 years, and the corresponding income will be 0.7 1, 1.04 and 1.50 million yuan respectively.
4) Manufacturing equipment and other businesses in other fields:
In 2020, this business will grow more obviously, mainly because the company has developed new products in precision electronic products (notebook computer assembly line, etc.). ) and medical field (mask machine). As the epidemic is gradually controlled, the company may have a short-term correction.
It is estimated that in 2 1-23 years, the corresponding total income will be 0.9 1, 0.99190,000 yuan respectively. Based on this, it is estimated that the company's operating income in 20021-2023 will be 2.3765438 billion, 4.275 billion and 6.498 billion respectively. The net profit returned to the mother was 223 million, 455 million and 883 million respectively, YOY was 59 10%, 103.67% and 94.09%, and the corresponding PE was 1 19X, 59X and 30X.
According to the company's main products, Pioneer Intelligence, Hangke Technology, He Ying Technology and Ke Rui Technology, both lithium battery equipment companies, are selected as comparable companies. The average PE of comparable company 202 1 is 62.53X
The company's core competitiveness in this industry is valued at 38.06X in 2022. As of September 8, 20021year, the target market value was 33.423 billion yuan, with a rising space of 24.53%, corresponding to the target price of 379.80 yuan.
1) The risk of slowdown or decline in the growth rate of the lithium battery industry.
The company is mainly engaged in R&D, production and sales of intelligent manufacturing equipment, providing high-end equipment and factory automation solutions for lithium batteries, auto parts, precision electronics, security, rail transit and other industries.
The company's main business income mainly comes from the equipment in the lithium battery field, and the realized sales income is 604,654,388+088,900 yuan, 776,566,800 yuan and 654,389,399,700 yuan respectively, accounting for 90,065,438+0%, 87.46% and 87.46% of the main business income respectively.
In the future, if the growth rate of the lithium battery industry slows down or declines, the company will not be able to expand its business in other industries, and the company will have the risk of slowing down or even falling revenue.
2) The risk of high customer concentration.
The sales revenue of the top five customers (including enterprises under the same control) accounted for 93.9 1%, 95.79% and 86.42% respectively, and the company's customer concentration was high, among which the sales revenue of new energy technology to the first customer accounted for 67.39%, 74.44% and 70.28% respectively.
For example, individual or some major customers suffer from reduced market demand and operational difficulties due to industrial policies, industry reshuffle and unexpected events, which adversely affects the normal operation and profitability of the company;
The company's future products can't be recognized by relevant customers continuously, or it can't maintain its advantages in the process of market competition, and the company's operation will be adversely affected.
3) Risk of performance decline.
In the last three years, the company's operating income was 6701602,800 yuan, 888,896,900 yuan and1429,965,200 yuan respectively, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1 19795.20 yuan and 75,654.38 yuan respectively.
In 20 19, the net profit decreased after non-deduction, mainly due to the increase of R&D expenses, followed by the increase of management expenses and sales expenses. In the future, if the company's revenue can't maintain sustained growth, or the increase in expenses continues to be greater than the increase in revenue, it may lead to the risk that the growth rate of the company's operating performance will slow down or even decline.
4) The risk of stock price fluctuation in the short term.
This stock is a sub-new stock, with less circulating share capital, and there is a risk of short-term sharp fluctuations in the stock price.
5) The calculation is subjective and is for reference only.
The report involves a large number of calculations and sensitive calculations, and the results are for reference only.
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