In 2015, Musk came up with a "star chain program" - launching 42,000 satellites to provide Internet access to more than 1 billion people around the world. Now, six years later, this whimsical idea is riding on Musk's usual bad luck, and people are linking it to the next generation of communications technology, 6G, and are eagerly awaiting Musk's "release of a big satellite".
So is 6G really coming? Are Chinese companies ready for it? And is it a good opportunity for investors?
What does 6G look like?
Standing at the point of transition from 4G to 5G, what 6G looks like is more from the imagination at this point.
Looking at the data, 6G is faster, peak data transfer speeds can reach 1Tb per second, 50 times faster than 5G, reliability is 100 times that of 5G, latency is less than 100 microseconds, one-tenth of that of 5G, traffic density can reach 107/Km2 ten times that of 5G, and the spectral efficiency is twice that of 5G ... ...In short, those advantages of 5G that have been taken out and boasted about are all killed in front of 6G.
With high speed, low latency, and high reliability, 6G will accomplish more complex tasks in multiple scenarios, and it will integrate a range of previously disparate technologies more than ever before.
On June 6, China's IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group released the "6G Overall Vision and Potential Key Technologies White Paper," which mentions eight major business application scenarios that will be formed by 6G, including immersive cloud XR, holographic communication, sensory interconnection, intelligent interaction, communication sensing, pervasive intelligence, digital twins, and full-area coverage.
6G, people may have the opportunity, outside the real physical world, to feel another virtual digital twin world, inside and outside the body of the sensor will collect and analyze data to generate a digital twin people and twin world, people are no longer subject to the constraints of space and time, step into the twin world Explore the virtual reality, the shape of the human interaction will also be completely changed, and 6G will allow remote precision surgery, engineering and construction will also become possible.
6G's super power can also be achieved through satellites and ground and underwater base stations *** with the same network, allowing people to complete the air, space, and Haiti as a whole of the signal coverage, so that people in any corner of the universe can be connected to the ultra-fast network.
6G also enables autonomous driving to become a reality, with vehicle-circuit collaboration, edge computing, and low-latency, highly reliable network signals, connecting vehicle sensors to cloud computing, making transportation reliable and efficient as well.
The sci-fi scenarios will all be realized by 6G one by one, and before that several key technologies are the challenges that researchers and developers need to solve.
GG requires higher speed signals, which corresponds to terahertz communication technology; longer power supply, which corresponds to batteries and wireless energy transfer technology; new access mechanisms, which corresponds to cellular-free MIMO technology; the realization of multidomain communication, which corresponds to the integration of satellite, terrestrial, and underwater communication; and higher security and reliability, which corresponds to the development of blockchain distribution. ......
6G, which is still in the hazy imagination, has already made technology powers and technology giants eyeing it. Whoever can solve the key technological problems faster and become the standard-setter of the 6G network will be in control of the technology world in ten years' time.
First movers
So which companies are leading the way in 6G development? And which companies will be pushed into the upcoming 6G new wind mouth?
As with 5G technology, communications equipment vendors are the mainstay of the R&D field.
Huawei has been working on 6G research and development since 2017 - two years before the commercialization of 5G - and ZTE set up a dedicated 6G research team in 2018. OPPO, VIVO, millet and other companies in the first echelon of domestic smart devices have announced 6G research and development plans to the public, and OPPO even announced in 2020 that it would invest 50 billion yuan in the next three years for the research of 6G technology.
Specifically with regard to the supply of key technologies, a number of listed companies have revealed to the public the connection between their own business and 6G.
The first is the research and development of terahertz technology, terahertz waves have a high frequency, short pulse, strong penetration characteristics, so it is believed that can be used as a high-speed broadband communication carrier applied to 6G communications.
Listed companies such as China Communications Ark, SCT Electronics, Daheng Technology, Hengtong Optoelectronics, and Yuanfang Optoelectronics have disclosed to the outside world that their business covers 6G-related services. In supporting the base station Aoshikang is working with customers to develop PCB products, Yihua shares also confirmed that it is working with Huawei, ZTE and other customers to develop new products for high-speed connectors.
Another highly relevant area of competition with 6G is low-orbit satellite technology, and a significant portion of scholars interpret 6G as: "5G + low-orbit satellite". Compared with the high-orbit synchronous orbit satellites, ground-orbit satellites have low cost, low latency, higher reliability, and there is no communication blind spot, which can seamlessly link the global Internet. If the low-orbit satellites eventually complete the integration with the terrestrial Internet, the 80% of the world's land and 95% of the ocean area that can not be covered by the 5G is expected to realize the connecting network.
At present, including the SpaceX star chain program, the world has released more than 25 constellation plans, the number of satellites planned to launch more than 100,000. And according to the analysis of relevant institutions, China will also usher in the peak of low-orbit satellite investment around 2023.
With foreign commercial enterprises leading the satellite R & D is different, China's current low-orbit satellite manufacturing and launch is still dominated by military enterprises, listed companies, there are China Satellite, Beidou Xingtong, China Weitong, aerospace science and technology and satellite technology is closely related. Kangtuo infrared, Hongyuan Electronics, Tian'ao Electronics, Huali Chuangtong and Asia Light Technology is engaged in the production of core semiconductor components.
And in the technology application level, 6G technology are on the entertainment life, medical health, industrial production, etc. will also bring new changes, has been 5G concept of the outbreak of AR / VR applications, remote diagnosis and treatment, the concept of the industrial Internet, is expected to be derived from the 6G era in the form of more products.
Will it really work as expected?
Chinese companies that have embarked on the 6G track one after another need to face a lot of practical difficulties if they want to take the initiative in the future as they wish.
First, the pressure from international competition. As countries around the world have entered the 5G network era, the strategic competition around 6G has begun. The United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea and other countries and regions are the development of 6G technology, to the height of the national strategy. Especially the United States, previously due to strategic decision-making mistakes, the United States in the U.S.-China 5G technology competition fell behind, in the history of the development of communications technology over the past 60 years, is an unprecedented first time. In order to regain its dominant position in the field of technology, the United States has placed heavy bets on 6G technology. Not only in the domestic set Apple, Google, Intel, Cisco, HP and a number of top technology companies to form an alliance to engage in research and development, but also in the international joint a number of technology giants, Huawei and ZTE excluded.
Such a scenario has been staged once in the 5G era.
On September 15, 2020, the U.S. ban on Huawei came into effect, and chip companies that use U.S. technology will not be allowed to supply Huawei without permission. In less than a year, Huawei's cell phone business has been severely weakened. In the first quarter of this year, Huawei shipped 14.9 million units in the Chinese market, down 50 percent year-on-year, and fell to the third largest market share among national brands of cell phones. In reality, consumer enthusiasm is still there, Huawei has no goods to sell. 6G era, Huawei and other Chinese manufacturers will undoubtedly face stronger rivals and a more hostile international competitive environment.
Secondly, there is the issue of supporting infrastructure and hardware popularization.
Due to the short wavelength of 5G and 6G signals and poor efficiency in penetrating walls, the requirement for the number of base stations is much higher than that of 3G and 4G. According to relevant calculations, for 5G signals to reach the coverage area of 4G signals, China as a whole needs roughly 10 million base stations, and as of the beginning of 2021, the number of China's 5G base stations has just exceeded 700,000, which is less than one tenth of the target number.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "5G application "sail" action plan, by 2023, China's 5G equipment penetration rate target: individual user penetration rate of more than 40%, the penetration rate of 5G applications in large industrial enterprises of 35%, compared to the 4G network is already close to 100% penetration, the need for new base stations and new equipment for 5G and 6G networks, and the need for new base stations and new equipment for 5G and 6G networks. The 5G and 6G networks, which require new base stations and new equipment, obviously cannot become absolutely mainstream for quite some time.
Third, 6G implies high costs in both R&D and applications, and it remains to be seen whether it can really be as revolutionary as expected.
Communications technology evolves in roughly decadal generations. The level of communication tends to be revolutionized in the odd-numbered generations, and then upgraded and improved in the even-numbered. If such a law also applies to 5G and 6G, then the 6G era may not necessarily be as magical as people think. At the same time, the density of base stations and the number of low-orbit satellites necessary for 6G is far greater than that of 5G, and cooperation and communication between countries is needed to realize the interconnection of global networks.
The manufacturing costs alone make the rollout of a 6G network astronomical. To the cost of low orbit satellite, for example, China's manufacturing of low orbit satellite, the cost of a single more than 4 million U.S. dollars, and throughout the world, the best cost control of the Star Chain program used by the low orbit satellite, a single also cost 500,000 U.S. dollars. The cost of sending tens of thousands of satellites into the sky is not something that can be easily borne by a single enterprise or even a country. The 6G that will arrive in 2030 will probably be a small-scale experiment at best, when the overall cost of building base stations and personal terminals is factored in.
"Longing for 6G, not necessarily having 6G," said Xu Zhijun, executive director of Huawei, may be the truth.
The content of this article concerning listed companies is the author's personal analysis and judgment based on information publicly disclosed by listed companies in accordance with their legal obligations (including but not limited to temporary announcements, periodic reports, and official interactive platforms, etc.); the information or opinions contained in this article do not constitute any investment or other commercial advice, and Market Value Watch does not assume any responsibility for any actions resulting from the adoption of this article.
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