Let me start with my speculation: the probability is that she was taken by someone else, but how? I guess it could be through the trunk of a car or some other means of transportation.
Let's run through what happened. In the early hours of July 5, Ms. Lai disappeared from her home. The police checked all the surveillance in and around the neighborhood and found no evidence of Ms. Lai entering or leaving the neighborhood.
According to Ms. Lai's husband's recollection, at 0:30 on July 5, Ms. Lai's husband went to the bathroom and found Ms. Lai still asleep in bed. When he woke up at 5:30 a.m., Ms. Lai was gone.
Ms. Lai's husband thought he had something to leave early that day, and did not pay attention. Until the afternoon of the second day, Ms. Lai's husband still did not contact Ms. Lai, which called the police, and then the police access to monitoring the situation.
In addition, according to Ms. Lai's daughter also added a few pieces of information. Such as Ms. Lai disappeared without a cell phone and wallet, wearing only pajamas. Ms. Lai herself is remarried, and the couple's relationship is considered stable.
Above is the general course of events, we extracted such a few useful information:
1. Ms. Lai disappeared in the early morning, and from beginning to end did not appear in any monitoring. 2. Ms. Lai disappeared more than a day before Ms. Lai's husband reported to the police. 3. Ms. Lai's age is not small, this year there are 53.
According to the above several pieces of information, let us analyze it. From the results, Ms. Lai must have disappeared. Either she is dead or she is still alive, we will discuss the two cases separately.
1. Unfortunately, Ms. Lai has met with misfortune.For this case, there are only two places where the misfortune happened - either inside the neighborhood or outside the neighborhood.
Could it have been inside the neighborhood? That scenario has been ruled out. That's because since the alarm was raised, the police have canvassed the entire neighborhood, as well as using police dogs. If Ms. Lai died in the district, according to the weather in Hangzhou now, it would have stunk, and the police dogs would have smelled it.
Could it be outside the neighborhood? This also has to be divided into two cases, one is killed in the district, brought outside the neighborhood. The second is that it was brought outside the neighborhood first and then killed.
But we also said above, the police have used dogs to map the whole neighborhood, really if the death in the neighborhood, it is estimated to have been found out. There is no possibility that it was brought outside the neighborhood and then killed? That relates to how to get out of the neighborhood.
According to the information above, we know that Ms. Lai is already a 53-year-old adult. It's simply impossible to be hijacked out of the neighborhood by someone else who doesn't move.
This also means that Ms. Lai may have cooperated to get out of the neighborhood. But just because Ms. Lai cooperated in getting out of the neighborhood doesn't mean that she was hijacked after she got out of the neighborhood. This also relates to the second possibility we talked about, that Ms. Lai is still alive.
2. Luckily, Ms. Lai is alive and well.I can't help but ask you guys, if it's your wife, go out before dawn, and don't bring your cell phone, don't bring your wallet. Is it normal that she hasn't come back that night, nor the morning of the 2nd day, nor until the afternoon of the 2nd day?
▲Monday is July 6th
Obviously not normal! If you put it on a normal person, you are probably looking for crazy on that night. This also means that in the opinion of Ms. Lai's husband, it is understandable that his wife was lost for a night.
With this, can we assume that Ms. Lai's husband is hiding something? It's not out of the question, and I hope the police can catch this lead and dig deeper.
But in either case, the likelihood of Ms. Lai being in the neighborhood is slim to none. Because the police have already checked the whole neighborhood, even the river inside the neighborhood has been drained, where there is still a place to hide?
This also suggests that there is a high probability that Ms. Lai is out of the neighborhood. This also relates to the fundamentals of the case - how in the world did they get out of the neighborhood? Since Ms. Lai's neighborhood surveillance does not provide full coverage, especially at the stairway locations.
Therefore, it is very likely that Ms. Lai entered the underground garage through the dead end of the stairway, and then left the neighborhood in her car.
Ms. Lai's disappearance may have been a long time in the planning of things, according to the logic of the general public, up and down the stairs of the building are mostly through the elevator. The woman deliberately bypassed the elevator, which is not a composite of the habits of a 53-year-old woman.
And still by way of the car to leave the neighborhood, which requires the cooperation of others, more shows that this is a long-planned thing.
By this point, the general direction is actually clear. Ms. Lai's disappearance is not a strange disappearance, it is very likely to be a long planned runaway. As for the reason for running away, what is the reason? Who assisted him to leave home? It needs to be further investigated.
Finally, I would like to add: some people say that her husband killed Ms. Lai and then pretended to look for her. We ordinary people can think of this scenario, wouldn't the police? So Ms. Lai's husband has long been listed as the first suspect since her disappearance.
But the fact that the police have not arrested her husband even after so much time has passed means that her husband's suspicion has been ruled out.
Probably the most bizarre, strange, and unthinkable disappearance of 2020 is the case of Ms. Lai, who disappeared in Hangzhou in the early hours of July 5th. Ms. Lai is a native of Hangzhou, about 52 years old, physically healthy and mentally normal, but suddenly disappeared in her own home in the middle of the night, simply subverted people's imagination. Generally, disappearances occur outdoors, in the field, in the countryside, a healthy woman disappeared in the middle of the night in her own home, this kind of thing was unheard of before. Where is Ms. Lai now? How did she leave her home, leave the neighborhood without all the surveillance cameras in the neighborhood picking up her image is so strange.
We all know that missing persons cases should be solved as soon as possible, the longer the delay, the fewer the clues, the more difficult it is to solve the case. Ms. Lai has been missing for 15 days, the reason why we can not find valuable clues, it is possible that the direction of investigation is wrong, or by someone's words misled in the wrong direction, delayed a lot of valuable time.
Whose words were misled before? It was her husband. It was her husband who reported the case, her husband who led the way to the security cameras, her husband who led the way to the ditch next to the neighborhood to pump the water, and he appeared to be in a hurry. If he was an innocent man, it was fine. If he's a suspect himself, then there's a good chance that he's taking everyone on a detour and leading them into the ditch.
In fact, Ms. Lai's husband is a suspect, and the biggest suspect. Because that night the missing person to Ms. was with him the whole night, eat dinner together, rest together, the family of three in the same room. The husband of the missing person is also the last witness to see the missing person, he is the most suspected, no one than he has a greater suspicion.
At present, we are puzzled by how the missing person left the house and the neighborhood, because all the cameras in the neighborhood have not found her. It is impossible for her to turn into a bird and fly to the sky like the Monkey King. She couldn't have burrowed into the ground like the Earthbound Sun either.
There are two possibilities for her whereabouts. One is to be hidden somewhere in the district (room, facilities, underground), the second is to be taken to the outside of the district, with a car, with a suitcase, or into a bag, and then thrown out from the neighborhood wall, which, if you do, need to be met by someone outside the neighborhood wall, and then transported away in a car.
If it is murdered, what is the motive of the suspect? Generally speaking, it is for love, for money, for color, for anger. However, we should note that it was early in the morning and everyone was asleep. It would be very difficult for someone from outside to commit the crime, and they would have to meet with the missing person to do so.
The missing person was at home with her husband at the time, and there was basically no chance that someone from the outside would try to commit the crime. Late at night, there is only one person with the missing person who has a chance of committing the crime.
In recent years, there have been cases of husbands murdering their wives. For example, on October 29, 2018, in the pool of a hotel in Phuket, Thailand, 29-year-old Tianjin woman Zhang was found dead, with multiple traumatic injuries, and suffered a beating before drowning to death, may have been in a semi-conscious state. Her husband Zhang Moufan, who was traveling with her, was identified by Thai police as the suspected murderer of his wife. The family of the deceased found that a few months before the crime, Zhang Moufan successively for his wife to buy a dozen insurance, the total amount of coverage is expected to be as high as 30 million yuan, if his wife died, the beneficiary is his own, which is a case of murdering his wife for money.
There is another case, on June 9, 2019, Ms. Wang, a pregnant woman from China's Jiangsu Province, and her husband, Yu Mou, were on a trip to Padang National Park in Thailand's Ubon Province, during which Ms. Wang fell off a cliff and miraculously survived. At first, her husband Yu said that his wife had lost her footing and fell off the cliff, but later, after she received security protection from the Thai police, she confirmed that she had in fact been pushed off the cliff by her husband, and Ms. Wang's husband, Yu, has been detained by the Thai police to this day. Because of the serious injuries, physical medication and other reasons, Ms. Wang's fetus in the abdomen ultimately did not save.
In the above two cases, the economic conditions of these two families are very good, very rich, with multiple houses, fancy cars, living conditions far better than the average working class. However, some people just don't know enough, people's desire is endless.
In this case, what are the family conditions of Ms. Lai in Hangzhou? Although Ms. Lai is 52 years old and works as a cleaning lady in a nearby accounting firm, she is physically healthy, mentally normal, and enjoys her job, in fact, her family conditions are quite good. Some netizens say that Ms. Lai is a local from Hangzhou, has several demolished houses, has a considerable amount of demolition money, and her living conditions are far better than those of the general working class. Ms. Lai's current husband is a foreigner.
In the end, the criminals are trying to make a fortune, or they are trying to have an affair, and we have to wait for the police to further verify this. We all hope that Ms. Lai can come back safely, but I don't know if this kind wish can be realized.
From the amount of information obtained so far, from the cell monitoring the last time Ms. Lai appeared counting, things have been more than ten days, we speculate that his husband is a suspect, family members conspired to kill Ms. Lai deliberately pretending to pump around to find, Ms. Lai and lover elopement and other speculation basically does not hold water, why is it so?
If his husband committed the crime, it must have been a long time in the making. He must have carried out careful planning, where in the neighborhood is the surveillance area, he must have carefully observed and made records, or approached the surveillance room many times, repeated observations. If he killed Ms. Lai in order to obtain immediate benefits from her murder, it would be obvious once he checked Ms. Lai's property and insurance status. In addition, they also have two daughters, the information did not mention whether Ms. Lai is the original or second marriage, whether the child is biological, but from the family's current state of analysis, interviews, actively looking for, etc., the possibility of family members to cooperate in the crime is zero, the husband alone is also unlikely to commit the crime. Because no matter who is responsible for breaking the body, dissolving the body, transferring and hiding the body, it takes time and process. It is impossible not to leave any traces of the above, the police only need to check the social relations of these people, coupled with modern means of detection, will soon come out of the water, not so fast as 20 days, there is no news out, so that we are here to speculate.
If Ms. Lai had a lover, did his husband and daughter not know? Even if they don't know, how do they usually contact each other, are they meeting? The cell phone is not used at all? In the home a little perverse are not? On the night of the incident, even if the lover and the design is well thought out, if his husband was not drugged, but also can not follow their steps step by step coincidence. The police as long as a check cell phone call records or information, a check this day before to the day after the community in and out of the vehicle, will also soon find clues. Also not to almost 20 days without any news.
Some people say it is a disguise, women dressed as men out of the neighborhood, the source of doubtful clothing, receiving personnel, in addition from the physical, gait point in time is also very easy to identify, the police and families will be very easy to identify.
Now there is only one last possibility, that is, the people in the building or lover or perverted man did, come to Ms. 10 in all likelihood has been killed, but the body Hugh is still in the building, has not been transported out.
In any case, a large living person has not seen a person, not seen the body, and is in the modern high-tech means, it is really mind-boggling. But it will never be what cross over, alien captivity, theology and so on. I also hope that my guess is wrong, Ms. Lai is still alive, and I hope that the police will give the answer as soon as possible, so that the truth of the matter will be revealed.
A big living person disappeared 14 days out of nowhere, is alive or dead are not known, the police after a number of rows of investigation surprisingly nothing, but also makes the missing Ms. become more and more confused, netizens are racking their brains a variety of imaginations, but the police solved the case is still pay attention to the fact that the evidence, I believe that the truth will come, will be back to Ms. and her family a justice. But the police have carefully checked the entire building, and even the roof pool has not been spared, but actually did not find any traces of Ms. Lai disappeared without a trace How did she do it, or how did the criminals do it?
Something's wrong: If Ms. Lai has left the building where she lives, her departure is bound to circumvent the elevator and the district's surveillance, which is obviously not the normal behavior of Ms. Lai, because she simply does not have to do so, perhaps behind the scenes, someone has taken Ms. Lai to leave by some means, and that person is how to escape from everyone's sight. The first thing you need to do is to get out of the way of the people.
Faulty three: According to Mr. Xu, the husband of Ms. came to describe, in the morning of July 4 at 12:30 am when he went to the toilet at night also saw Ms. came to lie in bed to sleep, and the day of the morning more than 5:00 a.m. has come to Ms. has disappeared, when Mr. Xu found that Ms. came to the wallet, keys, cell phone did not have to take, and only wearing a sling bag pajamas disappearance of the time, actually disappear within 24 hours. When Mr. Xu found Ms. Lai's wallet, keys, cell phone are not with, and only wearing a hanging pajamas disappeared, actually disappeared within 24 hours did not choose to report to the police, or to Ms. Lai's unit to contact the family, only to know Ms. Lai's disappearance, which is obviously not reasonable.
Faulty four:
Mrs. Come is a gentle person, usually also talk a lot and has not been contradictory with people, basically can be ruled out the possibility of revenge, the family's economic conditions are also more solid, according to Mr. Xu disclosed that the home savings and more than a million, and was placed in two sets of real estate, she did not have to seek their own motives for the disappearance, so far, her disappearance is quite strange. Quite bizarre, let a person feel unimaginable.
Conclusion:Law恢恢恢恢，疏不漏。 Although there are a lot of strange things about Ms. Lai's disappearance, but with the police's continuous in-depth investigation, I believe that in a short time there will be clues to the surface, and the truth will also come, then we will be in the heart of the doubts naturally unraveled, and finally I hope that Ms. Lai will be able to come back safe and sound, and if it really meets with the unfortunate, the criminals must be hard to escape the net, will be subject to legal sanctions. The first time I've seen this, I've seen it in my life.
It is not from the sewers, not to find a trace, so the speculation is not empty.
Comprehensive information reported by various media, a large living person disappeared into thin air, leaving no trace of any suspicion, which is unscientific and hard to believe. First of all, up to 13 days without any news, we have to think in the worst direction, Ms. Lai has been killed. The question then arises, how was the murdered Ms. Lai carried out of the neighborhood, and how could there be no sign of her in the surveillance. There are two ways to completely avoid the cameras, and no matter how carefully you check, you won't be able to see it. The first way is to load the victim into the trunk of the car and abandon it to a place where it is not easy to find.
The second way is that the victim has been disassembled and then parked over the drain to flush it away. For the first possibility, must be one by one to check the vehicles in and out of the district, you can use the cell phone positioning function to track the activities of the owners in and out of the district trajectory, may be able to find out some clues. For the second situation, must go door to door to check the neighborhood households recently water anomalies. To flush away hundreds of pounds of debris, will certainly lose a lot of tap water, and the gap between the daily water use is very set to be very large.
It's been a busy ten days or so, and it's important to break out of the inertia to get to the bottom of this. Of course, we'd rather Ms. Lai suddenly appeared in the netizen's line of sight and told everyone what was going on.
Comprehensive analysis, I reasoned as follows:
1, the missing lady has never left that building;
2, the case past many days, the missing lady has died, and was hidden or destructive dissolution of the body;
3, the murder of the missing lady is that building inside the people, and and the missing lady has an indescribable relationship. This relationship, their families do not know;
4, the murderer wants to kill the missing lady, because the lady caught a great deal of handle threat, this threat, enough to make the murderer's family broke, or a huge lawsuit, or destroy the murderer's life a great future
If it is killed, absolutely is the people in the area, the area there are three target groups, her husband, the residents of the area, the district, the district, and the people in the area, and the people in the district, and the people in the district. The district's residents, the district's security guards, her husband if the murderer assumed the scene, will she strangled neck and died, only so there will be no blood flow, the fastest way to deal with the body, and do not leave traces is buried, buried in where to monitor no trace it? Only the field or the city carefully prepared without monitoring the place, and is early to have prepared the cave, although it sounds difficult, but thoughtful people are able to do, in order to swallow the property, or what hidden feelings is not good to say, but her husband is possible, just possible, there are a lot of couples who fight and scolding is not necessarily under the hand, the past cases, can carefully premeditated to kill his wife, usually show in life Feelings are passing, another is the community security, to Ms. downstairs skulking, in a secluded place was raped and killed, or strangled to death after the rape of the body, because no one heard the sound of crying for help, and then dug a pit in the meadow to bury, because it rained every day for a while, the land is very soft, and also can not see the traces of the turn over, the police dog is also useless, with the neighbors of the community may also be the possibility of the crime, but the feeling of a minuscule amount of, any crime There must be a motive, a lot of rape and murder are temporary, an impulse to do, I feel that the security guard's suspicions are still very large, after all, the monitoring of this item, he is capable of avoiding, by the way, what the sewer flushed away, boiled the body, decomposition, are unlikely to escape the tracking of the police dog, but also unlikely to be able to do without traces, only the most unlikely to be found in the burying, if it is really no clues, a year after or do not know the life and death, then only the police can not be found, if it is really no clues, a year after or do not know the life and death. There are two scenarios here.
The first is to take the initiative to ride in other people's vehicles to leave the neighborhood, the second is to be taken to the car to leave the neighborhood. The only way to avoid surveillance is to lie on the bottom of the back seat or in the trunk.
In the second scenario, the current husband is more likely to commit the crime, followed by an acquaintance who has an early appointment upstairs.
Before I explain my speculation, let's look at what happened.
The last time Ms. Lai appeared in the neighborhood surveillance was the afternoon of July 4, when she was walking back with her youngest daughter, who is 12 years old and was born to her and her current husband.
In the second half of July 4, at 0:30am on the morning of July 5, Mr. Xu, Ms. Lai's husband, got up to go to the bathroom, saw Ms. Lai still sleeping, and found his wife missing at 5:30am.
Mr. Xu said he thought Ms. Lai went out and did not care. It wasn't until July 6, when the family received an inquiry call from Ms. Lai's unit, that they realized something was more fishy.
That's when Mr. Xu went to the police, and said that Ms. Lai disappeared wearing only a camisole, did not have any documents and cell phones. This was more than 40 hours after Ms. Lai's disappearance.
This is what is known about Ms. Lai's disappearance, and please note that these descriptions come from Mr. Xu. There is an important point in time here, namely what Mr. Xu was doing on the 5th.
July 5 is a Sunday, Ms. Lai should not work, wearing pajamas disappeared during the day and night, Mr. Xu should care at this time, why not take the initiative to go to the police?
After the unit called, Mr. Xu felt strange, the implication is that he thought Ms. Lai has been wearing pajamas at work, and 5 Sunday is also working.
The move didn't seem necessary, and the other direction that Ms. Lai's youngest daughter might have taken was to give useful information about that night, that mother and daughter had been out together before the disappearance.
Typically, disappearances are related to money and love. Ms. Lai whether there is also a factor in this regard? According to the neighborhood neighborhood, Ms. Lai is a return home, the family for the reorganization.
At present, the district house is Ms. Lai's, and recently she got two suites, that is to say, Ms. Lai now **** three housing, living conditions are still relatively superior.
Ms. Lai also has an older daughter, who was raised by her ex-husband and rarely comes to her side. Is it possible that these three houses could have been a trigger for Ms. Lai's disappearance, probably yes.
The beneficiaries of Ms. Lai's disappearance are generally her spouse, Mr. Hsu, and her children. Is it possible that there was a disagreement between the husband and wife over the division of the property, and thus Mr. Hsu caused Ms. Lai to disappear.
To successfully avoid surveillance, you can only go to the underground garage to take a car to leave, and this car can not be their own. The method of avoiding surveillance by utilizing a surveillance dead zone is not very realistic.
Unless you're a regular surveillance watcher, the likelihood of success for others is extremely low.
The second scenario is that Ms. Lai is trapped in love. The two sides agree to meet at a time, and Ms. Lai may still have a cell phone, and the two end up leaving the neighborhood in a car.
This possibility seems unlikely, Ms. Lai is 53 years old, the chances of leaving home for love is not great, and her living conditions are not bad, there is no need to leave with others.
It is very likely that acquaintances from the same building will meet, and the possibility of Ms. Lai's encounter in this case cannot be ruled out. The acquaintance made Ms. Lai disappear after achieving a certain goal.
Mr. Xu, the husband of Ms. Lai suspect can not be ruled out, the focus should be in and out of the district vehicles, underground garages and hallways should also focus on the investigation, there are also monitoring the blind spot of the grass.
In addition, Ms. Xu's youngest daughter may be a breakthrough, what happened that night, and even before Ms. Xu had no unusual performance, not just listen to Mr. Xu's words.
Ladies missing almost half a month, this thing may be planning a long time, to Ms. self-directed possibility of very low, the process in the end how to wait for the police conclusion.
If her husband said that the time period, the possibility of her going out so late is almost zero, the young people may be, the older ones are basically impossible to go out so late, so late to go out what? The young man went out so late to eat a late night snack is also said to be the past. The first time I saw this was when I was a young man, and I was a young woman.
Or she got up and drove herself out of the basement from the building without video surveillance, this possibility is also very low, why should she have? She is not mentally ill, the news mentioned it, she has to go why not take anything with her, not even a cell phone? This possibility is also ruled out, the likelihood of her running away on her own accord is almost zero. If she was actively running away, she might have taken her cell phone and other things with her... walking in a sling?
At the end of the day, the police were in a state of shock.
In the middle of the night, strangers knocked on the door, and she opened it, this possibility is almost none, in the middle of the night knocking on the door, unless they are familiar with the person, who will ask who knocked on the door, do not know certainly will not open the door, and will be very afraid, so this possibility is basically none.
In the middle of the night, acquaintances knocked on the door, she went to open the door, and then take away or killed, the same building or acquaintances, acquaintances to pick her up in the middle of the night should not be harmful to her, the possibility of very small, and should bring a cell phone to change clothes and so on. The likelihood of being victimized is to end up in conflict. If this is the possibility, then, cell phone calls on the chat records should be able to find traces, it is impossible not by phone, they do not worry about knocking on the door her husband found? Of course there is a possibility that they will use a code word that her husband does not understand. But a long acquaintance relationship, there will certainly be phone or other network contact.
If it's not her husband talking about that time period, it's her husband lying, so why would he lie? Then isn't he the most suspicious?
Who is lying?
The streets and alleys, elevator doors everywhere in the eyes of heaven at the moment, a living person inexplicably disappeared? Surprised? Unexplained. But we have to be clear that monitoring is not everything, it will also have a blind spot, there are places that can not be covered. Sometimes surveillance is just like that, perfectly avoiding the angle you want, but, in the end, it's always a good idea to look carefully for clues.
A few years ago, the winter night, a more than fifty-year-old neighborhood security guards, three or four o'clock after the night patrol, neither returned to the security guard post, and did not go home, the phone is also turned off. During the shift, people are missing, how to explain to the family? Unit leaders, speed report.
Check the video data, we saw that night he was patrolling around the neighborhood, flashlight wandering. Then went to a backstreet cul-de-sac, and finally disappeared completely in the surveillance range. No further images of him returning were found. So in the vicinity of his disappearance, every sinkhole, every large midden, yard wall ...... everyone carefully looking for a whole, but there is no valuable clues.
The following year in May and June, there back to the road met the missing man's sister. "Little sister, my brother body found. But it was in a cellar well a few hundred meters from where he disappeared. We've recognized that it was indeed him, and he was still wearing his cotton overcoat, that is, his human form could no longer be seen. He still had half a bottle of wine in his coat pocket."
Some of the incredible seemingly bizarre cases, the big white, not so complicated.
Hangzhou to sister's husband, the memory of time is very sensitive, can accurately report their own 0:30 minutes to the toilet, but also know the daughter-in-law to go out to wear clothes, shoes, the general man seems to be not too much in this regard on the right? If you sleep in a daze, you will still remember the time accurately? Daughter-in-law has all sorts of abnormal behavior, but he thought she wore pajamas, do not bring a cell phone to work? Do you believe that? I don't believe it.