On March 22nd, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) published the "Investigation on China's Trade Behavior in Clause 30 1", and concluded that the actions, policies and practices of the China administration concerning technology transfer, intellectual property rights and innovation were "unreasonable or discriminatory, which brought burdens or restrictions to American business". On March 23rd, in retaliation for the US tariff increase on steel and aluminum products, the administrative department of China published a list of US products with a tariff increase value of US$ 3 billion.
On April 4th, based on the conclusion of the 30 1 report, the United States trade representative announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on 1333 China goods with a total value of $50 billion on July 6th. On April 4th, China announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on 106 American goods worth $50 billion, including soybeans and Boeing aircraft.
On April 5, Trump asked USTR to consider imposing tariffs on China goods worth $654.38 billion. On April 5th, China submitted a WTO consultation request to the United States on the "232 measures" for importing steel and aluminum products from the United States, and formally started the WTO dispute settlement procedure. On the same day, China also proposed to hold WTO consultations on the 30 1 measure.
On April 18, the United States indicated that it had agreed to negotiate with China on tax measures under the dispute settlement mechanism.
On April 16, the Bureau of Industrial Security (BIS) of the US Department of Commerce announced the imposition of sanctions on ZTE.
On May 2, the American delegation arrived in Beijing. In the first negotiation between China and the United States, the United States implemented Trump's "crazy strategy" and overcharged China. Its specific requirements are mainly:
(1) From June 20 18, the trade deficit with the United States will be reduced by at least 1000 billion US dollars every 12 months. By the end of 2020, the trade deficit with the United States will be reduced by at least $200 billion compared with the end of 20 18.
(2) Immediately cancel the subsidies and other government support in the field of 10 high-tech manufacturing defined in Made in China 2025.
(3) To lift the investment restrictions on foreign companies operating in China, including the equity ceiling of local joint ventures of foreign companies in China; Before July, 2065438 1, the improved national "negative list" of foreign investment was released (the so-called "negative list" refers to the industrial fields that are completely closed or conditionally open to foreign investment, and all economic fields not mentioned in this list are open to foreign investment). Within 90 days after the publication of the list, the United States will verify the unfair investment restrictions that still exist in the United States. After receiving the list of questions from the United States, China will actively lift these restrictions according to the timetable agreed by China and the United States.
(4) Before 20 1 9 65438+101,China stopped certain policies and practices (compulsory technology transfer, joint venture requirements, etc. ) related to intellectual property rights.
(5) Before 2019 65438+1kloc-0/,China revoked the provisions in the Regulations on the Administration of Technology Import and Export and the Regulations on the Implementation of the Law on Chinese-foreign Joint Ventures, which were recognized by the United States in the WTO negotiations, and revised the above regulations according to the requirements of the United States.
(6) China withdrew its request for consultation with the World Trade Organization before July 20 18.
(7) China shall not take any form of retaliation against any measures taken by the United States based on the case investigated in 30 1, and shall not take any retaliatory action.
(8) Agree to immediately stop the network, economic espionage, counterfeiting and piracy activities against American technology and intellectual property rights, and make a quarterly evaluation of the progress of implementing the above measures; If China fails to fulfill its promise, the United States can impose tariff penalties; Agree to abide by US export control laws.
(9) Do not oppose, challenge or retaliate against the restrictions imposed by the United States on China's investment in sensitive areas of technology and national security in the United States.
(1 0) Before July 20201,China will reduce the tariffs on all products in non-critical sectors to the level of similar products in the United States. China recognizes that the United States may impose restrictions or tariffs on the import of products in key areas, including products related to Made in China 2025.
(1 1) If China fails to fulfill this agreement, the United States will levy taxes on China's imports and take other appropriate measures, and China promises not to take retaliatory measures.
The China delegation's response to the United States' wild speculations was mild, but firm:
(1) China will reduce tariffs on automobiles and other products imported from the United States and import a large number of goods and services from the United States, provided that the United States takes the following follow-up actions: First, lift the ban on high-tech exports to China, especially the export restrictions on integrated circuit products; The second is to open US government procurement to China IT products; The third is to resume China's export of cooked poultry meat to the United States before May 3 1 and May 201,and so on.
(2) Increase bilateral trade in services through the following measures: the two sides set up a working group on trade in services; Open service industries (medical care, pension, architectural design, environmental protection, etc.). ) Foreign investment in Hainan Free Trade Zone; Pilot cross-border service trade in 15 area; Expand China's import of American films.
(3) Strengthen intellectual property cooperation with the United States, but China's joint venture and share ratio policy under its WTO accession agreement should not be regarded as "compulsory technology transfer".
(4) Revise the American restrictions on ZTE to ensure the global supply chain of the semiconductor industry.
(5) Require the United States to stop using "substitute countries" as the benchmark for anti-dumping investigations on China products (in other words, it is actually to recognize China's market economy status under the WTO).
(6) Terminate the investigation of intellectual property rights in China under Article 30 1 and cancel any tariff plan under the investigation; Promise not to launch any investigation on Article 30 1 in China in the future.
The final result of the negotiations is unknown, but it can be guessed that the China delegation rejected the unreasonable demands of the United States, but made necessary concessions to avoid a trade war. The communique of the talks said: "The two sides fully exchanged views on expanding US exports to China, bilateral service trade, two-way investment, protecting intellectual property rights, and solving tariff and non-tariff measures, and reached some understandings in some areas."
15 May to 19 May, Liu He led a delegation to the United States for the second round of negotiations. The agreements reached include taking effective measures to significantly reduce the trade deficit between the United States and China, and China will substantially increase the purchase of goods and services from the United States, and meaningfully increase the export of agricultural products and energy from the United States. The two sides discussed the expansion of trade in manufacturing products and services and agreed to create favorable conditions for reaching an understanding in the above areas. China will promote the revision of relevant laws and regulations, including the patent law. The two sides agreed to encourage two-way investment, strive to create a level playing field for business, and continue to maintain high-level communication. According to foreign sources, China rejected the US demand for China to reduce its trade deficit by 200 billion US dollars, but agreed to increase the import of energy and agricultural products, with the import volume approaching 70 billion US dollars. China and the United States have not solved the so-called "intellectual property theft" problem. China rejected American demands for China to make more substantial changes in four areas: state-owned enterprise reform, industrial subsidies, compulsory technology transfer and overcapacity.
On May 20th, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the Sino-US trade war had been "armistice".
On May 25th, US President Trump said that ZTE would be allowed to resume business after achieving "a high level of security, reorganizing the management and board of directors, purchasing American parts and paying a fine of $654.38+0.3 billion".
On May 29th, the White House issued a statement saying that specific measures to restrict trade with China will be announced on June 15. China's Ministry of Commerce immediately pointed out that this statement clearly violated the understanding reached by China and the United States in Washington not long ago.
From May 30th to June 2nd, China and the United States held the third round of negotiations. US Secretary of Commerce Ross and China Deputy Prime Minister Liu He did not issue a joint statement after two days of discussion, and the US delegation returned home without making any comments. Xinhua said in a brief statement that Ross and Liu He had made "concrete progress", but did not elaborate. However, Xinhua also warned that if the United States introduced trade sanctions, including tariff increases, all the economic and trade achievements reached through negotiations between the two sides would not take effect.
On June 15, the US government announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on China's imports on July 6 as originally planned. A few minutes later, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that it would introduce "the same scale and the same strength" tax measures to the United States, and all the economic and trade achievements reached by the two sides through consultation would be invalid at the same time.
16 On June 6, in response to the decision of the United States 15, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, China issued an announcement to impose a 25% tariff on 659 imported goods originating in the United States. Since July 6 this year, tariffs have been imposed on 545 commodities such as agricultural products, automobiles and aquatic products in the United States; Impose tariffs on American chemicals, medical devices, energy products and other commodities 1 14, and the implementation time will be notified separately.
18 In June, Trump announced a tariff of 10% on $200 billion of China goods; And threatened that if China countered, the United States would impose additional tariffs on another $200 billion of China goods.
On June 19, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of China made a speech on the White House's statement on June 18. If the United States loses its rationality and makes a list, China will have to take comprehensive measures of "combining quantity with quality" and make a strong counter-measure.
Strictly speaking, the Sino-US trade war has not really started. From 2065438+March 8, 2008, Trump announced to impose tariffs of 25% and 10% on steel and aluminum products respectively, to the third Sino-US trade negotiation with Vice Premier Liu He led by US Secretary of Commerce Ross, all that happened between them was just a pre-war confrontation. Only when the United States takes protectionist measures such as increasing tariffs on China and China takes retaliatory measures can the Sino-US trade war really start. China is still doing its best to avoid a trade war without winners. The United States doesn't necessarily want a trade war between China and the United States, but it tries to extract the maximum benefit from China by threatening a trade war. Because China's exports are highly dependent on the American market, China may lose more in the trade war, which is exactly what the United States has nothing to fear. However, the United States is not completely fearless about "killing one thousand enemies and losing eight hundred." Fight or not? If so, to what extent? The two governments must constantly reason to decide their best strategy. The United States hopes to achieve "defeat the enemy without fighting", while China hopes to avoid a trade war with minimal losses.
After three rounds of talks, the Sino-US trade war once showed signs of truce. However, on June 15, Trump ignored the previous understanding and insisted on announcing the plan to impose tariffs on China's $50 billion products on April 4. On June 15 (a few minutes after the announcement of the United States), China had to announce the introduction of tax measures of "the same scale and intensity" to the United States, and all the economic and trade achievements reached by the two sides through consultation were invalidated at the same time. Things have developed to this point, and the Sino-US trade war is basically inevitable.
There are three reasons why the United States wants to fight a trade war with China: First, China has maintained a large trade surplus with the United States for a long time; Second, China does not abide by WTO commitments; Third, China obtained American technology through improper means. Within the US government, due to different interests or perceptions, the emphasis on the above three points is also different. For example, Trump emphasized the US trade deficit with China in the early stage, while Navarro and Wright Heze always emphasized the so-called "structural" problems, such as China stealing American technology by improper means.
China announced the full opening of manufacturing industry and accelerated the opening of service industries in the fields of finance, telecommunications, medical care and old-age care. China has also been in a deficit position in service trade, and so has the United States. China's opening up in these fields will also bring new opportunities to all countries in the world. This kind of opening is a win-win opportunity. On the one hand, China consumers get better products and services at low cost, on the other hand, foreign investors get new opportunities to share the dividends of China's economic growth. China's related industries will also enhance their capabilities in the open competition. Politicians of the two countries need to shoulder their responsibilities and provide more convenience and possibilities for entrepreneurs of the two countries with a global and open mind.