(1) A stronger material and technological base. West Germany occupied the major part of the pre-war German territory and the most economically developed areas, with a large number of skilled labor and a strong scientific and technological force. Although it was severely damaged during the war, industrial production was quickly restored to its pre-war level because of its good original foundation. In addition, in the early post-war period, the wage level was low and military expenditure was small, which, together with the aid from the United States, provided funds and technology for economic development.
(2) A longer-term policy of economic development was formulated and large and long-term investments were made. Development plans were formulated according to the country's situation, with different development priorities at different times; investment also increased after the war, and investment priorities were systematically shifted according to the different priorities of each development period.
(3) Emphasize the development of science and technology and education, and widely adopt new technological achievements. West Germany that do not raise the level of science and technology, there is no modernization requirements, therefore attaches great importance to the development of science and technology, scientific research and the development of science and technology, education, the proportion of funds is higher; at the same time, as far as possible, the introduction and extensive use of new technological achievements, and to promote the continuous updating of production equipment and rapid increase in labor productivity. (4) Vigorously attracting foreign capital and developing foreign trade. After the war, the import of cheap raw materials and fuels and the export of high-priced manufactured goods not only promoted the rapid development of the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany, but also gained a lot of profits. Therefore, West Germany attached great importance to the development of foreign trade. Exported industrial products play an important role in industrial production, and about one-third of industrial employment is export work.
(5) Certain aspects of improvement were carried out. In order to ease domestic conflicts and develop production, the West German government and business owners also implemented certain reformist measures, such as the widespread implementation of the social welfare system, increasing workers' wages and benefits, and the participation of workers in a certain degree of enterprise management, etc., which played a certain role in stabilizing the society and increasing labor productivity.
But since the 1970s, due to the shrinking of the domestic market, the country and the whole of the capitalist economic crisis has continued to occur, the development of West Germany's economy slowed down markedly, 1970-80, the average annual growth rate of the gross national product fell to 2.8 percent.
May 8, 1945, the defeat and surrender of Nazi Germany, by the United States, Britain, France and the Soviet Union **** management, after the split into East and West Germany. At this time, the people's livelihood in Germany, production stagnation, the economy is completely unable to meet the normal needs of national life, completely shortage and control of the economy. To June 21, 1948, the western occupation of the monetary reform as a symbol, Germany made full use of the cold war caused by the East-West competition atmosphere, in the Marshall Plan assistance and other initiation, by virtue of the high quality of human capital, to overcome the split between the two Germany brought about by the industrial and regional structural rupture in a very short period of time to restore the operation of the national economy and the development of the national economy, to reach and exceed the pre-war level.
Throughout the 1950s to 1966, 1967, Germany's average annual GDP growth rate of nearly 8%, active private consumption, machinery and equipment, such as strong investment in fixed assets, rapid growth in exports, nearly full employment (unemployment rate fell to 0.7%), into the famous "economic miracle" era. This is mainly due to the global economy recovery demand, as well as the Korean War order as a symbol of external demand for German exports.
At this time, the belief in market forces and free competition, and the rejection of monopoly, coupled with a focus on social justice and equilibrium, became the dominant ideology of economic development, and influenced the direction of the government's administration. It is no exaggeration to say that the dominant economic slogan of the Adenauer and Erhard governments, which belonged to the right-wing party CDU/CSU in the early post-war period, was "growth, growth, growth.
In 1966-1967, when Germany experienced its first post-war crisis of overproduction and a relatively rare 0.7% negative growth in the national economy, the government led by Erhard, the "father of the economic miracle," collapsed, giving way to the Kurt Kissinger grand coalition government, which was ruled by the right, the center, and the left ****. Coalition government, which marked the end of the post-war economic recovery and the unilateral high-speed economic growth that had so far been high, with only slight cyclical ups and downs. Since then, the German economy has entered a phase of growth that requires an emphasis on macro-balancing and overall coordination. How to prevent recession and macroeconomic cyclical ups and downs and frequent fluctuations has become a topic of widespread concern, and the related regulation of the economic cycle and business sentiment of the boom policy is on the agenda.
Economic policy thinking also appeared a more distinctive shift, the emergence of the German post-war history of the more rare, Keynesian-led government use of fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate the economy to run the overall regulatory policy, the representative of the then Minister of Economy, Karl Schiller. The German-style social market economic model with neoliberalism as its main theme added the new Keynesian element of total government control, and the government's pursuit of macroeconomic goals shifted from growth to a stable equilibrium.
In the meantime, the pressure of the appreciation of the Mark became a hot topic of discussion. Due to public, especially business and industry concerns about the appreciation of the mark harming German exports, Kissinger's cabinet opposed to the appreciation of the advocates of Finance Minister Josef Strauss, overriding the Minister of Economy Schiller and the central bank opinion, made the decision of the mark does not appreciate. This move put the coalition government under tremendous domestic and foreign pressure. Soon after, with the fall of that government in 1969, the federal government made the decision to go along with the appreciation.
With the wealth effect of economic growth, the enlightenment of social market economic theory, the emphasis on social security in the Rhineland model, and the competitive pressure of the Cold War between the East and the West, the demand for social justice and the expansion of social welfare entitlements increased, and the left-wing Social Democrat Brandt in 1969 and the Schmidt government in 1974 came to power. The left-wing governments introduced economic policies such as expanding government expenditures, guaranteeing social justice and strengthening welfare protection. The Bismarckian model of social insurance, which was financed by equal contributions from employers and employees and equalized benefits, was not only restored, but also expanded as never before. An all-encompassing social welfare system, mainly based on compulsory social insurance (including old-age pension, medical care, work injury, unemployment insurance, etc.) and including social assistance and social allowances, was gradually formed, and Germany became a social welfare state. However, the rigidity of the high welfare state is increasingly visible, making its financial sustainability a challenge, and laying the groundwork for the future drag on the overall economic development.
Coping with stagflation
In the 1970s, the German economy was hit by strong external shocks, notably the weakening of the US dollar, the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system, and two oil crises. The German economy was forced to bid farewell to the era of high growth and near full employment, and entered a period of economic stagnation, unemployment and high inflation "stagflation".
The German government deregulated the exchange rate of the mark, the implementation of free floating, the influx of large amounts of capital to make the mark appreciation, inflationary pressure is clearly highlighted. Enhanced bargaining position of the labor side in the labor pay negotiation to increase the wage increase requirements contributed to inflation; inflation rate from 2.1% in 1969 rose sharply to 7% in 1974; the appreciation of the mark and the high price of oil so that many industry orders fell, the start of the workforce, coupled with the 1971-1973 "rationalization process" accelerated technological progress.
In response to inflation, the Brandt government and the central bank introduced initiatives such as eliminating tax breaks, increasing fuel taxes, and raising the discount rate to squeeze government spending, but to no avail. The Schmidt government changed course and launched a boom promotion plan to resurrect aggregate demand: balancing and supporting the federal government to expand investment through loans, subsidizing private investment, specifically formulating investment plans to promote the construction industry, transportation, and environmental protection and energy, reforming the income tax system, lowering taxes on the middle and lower classes, and raising welfare subsidies such as childcare allowances; its economic policy hovered between Keynesian (expanding government demand) and supply-directed Its economic policies hover between Keynesian (expanding government demand) and supply-driven (cutting taxes to enliven investment, consumption, and promote economic growth and employment); and at the same time, it strengthens international economic cooperation, hoping to use the establishment of the European Monetary System (EMS) cooperation to attenuate the impact of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, stabilize the exchange rate, and build a stable external economic environment.
However, due to the persistent crisis caused by the people's low desire to consume, steel, automobile, machine manufacturing, construction and other industries with outstanding structural problems, as well as the developed countries are in the same crisis caused by the lack of exports, the above measures not only failed to solve the stagflation and unemployment in Germany, but also led to a huge increase in the debt of the public ****, so that the overall adjustment policy to the failure.
In the 1980s, low economic growth and rising unemployment (exceeding 2 million) and public **** debt plagued Germany, prompting the right-wing Kohl government, which came to power in 1982, to return to the old path of liberalism and the use of market forces, and to prioritize the solution to the problem of unemployment and social security. The slogan of its economic and social policy was "freedom, dynamism and self-responsibility", emphasizing that the Government should return to its original task and "retreat from excessive demands on the State and the social security system", and that society and the Government should only provide much-needed social assistance and security. Through the social security field of open source (increase employer, employee contribution rate), cutting back on expenditure (reduce social security benefits), the implementation of control of government spending, not to raise new debt and other initiatives to control the growth of public **** debt and consolidation of fiscal policy has begun to show results; through tax cuts to activate business investment and private demand, increase business profits, the goal of lifting economic growth basically achieved, and accordingly (even coupled with the encouragement of early retirement) to create The initiative to create jobs in this way (even coupled with the encouragement of early retirement) but little effect; monetary policy to resist the United States demanded the implementation of expansionary monetary and growth policy pressure, adhere to the control of inflation, the defense of the mark against the stability of the domestic currency, in particular, rejected the 1987 U.S. forced excessive appreciation of the mark, thereby jeopardizing the unreasonable demands of Germany's exports.
Breaking the vicious circle
1990s, the reunification of the two Germany, the impact of globalization, aging constitutes a serious challenge to the German economy, society and even the Rheinland model, not only low growth (less than 2%), high unemployment (up to nearly 4 million or so) has always been plagued by this stage of the German society, and the "German Disease" syndrome is exceptionally serious.
The unification of the two Germanys is undoubtedly a great blessing for the German nation, but the short-lived unity of the boom in the early 1990s flickered. In order to transform the economic system and rebuild the infrastructure and social security system in the East, including the *** with the revitalization of the East and the Consolidated Fund, all levels of government transfers to the East to the mid-1990s more than a trillion marks, dragging down the western economy. In order to raise funds and curb inflation, the German government had to raise the dominant interest rate for more than 10 consecutive times, leading to a large inflow of volatile capital, the European currency body in the pound and the lira and so on also suffered the impact.
Three feet of ice, not a day's cold. The weakness of the German economy is mainly due to a series of structural reasons such as the welfare system, and the burden of the reunification of the two Germanys and other temporary events combined effect. The overprotective social welfare system pushed up the cost of production, resulting in "high welfare under low growth - high taxes - high debt - high costs --The vicious circle of "low growth with high welfare - high taxes - high debt - high costs - low investment - low growth" was formed. From the early 1970s to the end of the 1990s, Germany's per capita welfare expenditure increased by more than 5.3 times, which became a drag on economic growth; too much protection of sunset industries in the industrial structure in the 1970s and 1980s and conservative lagging of research and development of the information industry, etc., which made it lack of leading and leading industries that are rich in growth; lack of flexibility in the corporate governance system and profit-oriented incentive mechanism, which made the microscopic lack of vigor; excessive protection of dismissal and excessive high cost of investment; and the lack of flexibility in the corporate governance system and profit-oriented incentive mechanism, which made the microscopic lack of vigor. The lack of flexibility in the corporate governance system and profit-oriented incentives have led to a lack of micro-energy; excessive dismissal protection and high unemployment benefits have led to the rigidity of the labor market, and the unemployment rate has been difficult to reduce.
In 1998, in the face of rising unemployment, the Kohl government was replaced by the Social Democrat Gerhard Schr?der government. As the right-wing leader of a left-wing party, Schr?der's economic policy ideas were compatible with both left and right thinking: on the one hand, he insisted on stimulating investment and consumer demand through tax cuts to energize the economy. On the other hand, in the field of social security, as with his predecessor, he advocates personal responsibility while trying to maintain the original treatment, not raising social security contributions, and turning to eco-taxes to fill the gaps and advocate environmental protection in order to reflect his left-wing color.
Looking at the various stages of Germany's post-war economic development, despite the many problems, it has been a success in terms of overall economic and social development, ranking among the top in the world. One of the outstanding features is to adhere to the "capitalism with a conscience", that is, the market economic system as the basic framework to market competition as the core, give full play to the "invisible hand" incentives and micro-promotion, regulation; at the same time, the government and the community moderate At the same time, the government and society intervene moderately to overcome "market failure". In particular, it emphasizes the "Magic Quadrilateral" goal of full employment, balance of payments, moderate economic growth and stable inflation as the optimal criterion, and pursues the overall intervention and regulation of the idea of stable, balanced and sustainable development; and the great importance it attaches to the rational use of energy and environmental protection shows that its economic guiding ideology has already reached the realm of pursuing harmony in many latitudes. The rational use of energy and environmental protection are highly valued, indicating that its economic guiding ideology has reached the realm of pursuing harmony in many latitudes.
(The author is the executive deputy director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University, and a director of the Chinese Society for World Economics and the German Studies Association)