Three years, nucleic acid test points gradually more than public toilets can be found everywhere. Doing nucleic acid into the "renewal" of the same demand, behind this, nucleic acid testing business listed companies have to disclose more than billions of revenue, a number of enterprises successful IPO.
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But when everything suddenly ended, in the outside world thought that behind the profiteering, the entire nucleic acid testing industry seems to have left only the "a patch of chicken feathers". An investment banker told the interface news reporter, although the community **** knowledge is that the concept of nucleic acid testing enterprises in the past three years earned "pots full of money". But the industry has an opposite *** knowledge. In fact, nucleic acid testing business performance problems, especially high accounts receivable problems, will be concentrated in 2023.
The explosion of a cold industry
The demand for new crown nucleic acid testing was born overnight. It was initially envisioned as simple - find every virus.
At the beginning of the 2020s, it wasn't easy to get a nucleic acid test - a person could only get a nucleic acid test if they had a fever or other symptoms and visited a fever clinic. Due to the lack of supply, nucleic acid testing once became the initial "problem" of Wuhan epidemic prevention and control.
But by the summer of 2021, nucleic acid testing had permeated people's lives. From large-scale testing to normalization of all staff testing, to "15-minute nucleic acid circle". But there's a vague sense of this permeation, its sudden appearance in life and rightfully becoming a part of it.
According to data from the National New Coronavirus Nucleic Acid Testing Information Platform, as of May 11, 2022, there are 13,000 healthcare institutions and 153,000 technicians nationwide*** that provide new coronavirus nucleic acid testing services, with a total testing capacity of nearly 57 million tubes per day.
Nucleic acid test belongs to the in vitro diagnostic industry. IVD can be divided into biochemical diagnostics, immune diagnostics, molecular diagnostics from the technical route. Nucleic acid test belongs to the molecular diagnostic technology. In fact, before the epidemic, molecular diagnostics is a complex and little presence of technology.
"Before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the industry basically believes that molecular diagnostics is a high-cost and difficult to promote the technology, a long time in the state can not be profitable, and do not know where its prospects." A primary market investment company sources told interface news reporter.
But after the sudden outbreak of the new crown epidemic, molecular diagnostics ushered in unprecedented application development opportunities. Under the increasing demand of "should be examined as much as possible", the whole industry upstream and downstream market grows dramatically.
The upstream of nucleic acid testing industry chain is mainly for antigen, antibody, enzyme and coenzyme, polymer plastic consumables manufacturers and diagnostic instruments and other manufacturers; the midstream for the sample collection and preservation of reagent manufacturers, nucleic acid extraction reagent manufacturers and reagent manufacturers; the downstream of the terminal for the hospital, the third-party testing organizations, third-party laboratories and so on. Among them, the upstream reagent raw materials and testing equipment are still dominated by overseas giants such as Roche, Siemens, Abbott, Illumina, etc., and the domestic camp is only dominated by a few enterprises such as Novozymes, Fipon Biologicals, and Huada Zhizao. Domestic nucleic acid testing companies are still mainly focused on midstream reagent production and downstream testing.
According to the A-share listed companies in the third quarter of 2022 financial reports. 67 nucleic acid testing probable companies *** realized revenue of 251.6 billion yuan, net profit of 72.8 billion yuan.
Of these, Dean Diagnostics and Gold Medica represent the status quo of third-party laboratories of offline sampling and testing organizations.From 2019 to the first three quarters of 2022, Dean Diagnostics realized revenue of 8.453 billion yuan, 10.649 billion yuan, 13.082 billion yuan, and 15.629 billion yuan, respectively; and realized net profit of 347 million yuan, 803 million yuan, 1.163 billion yuan, respectively and 2.428 billion yuan. During the same period, Goldcorp achieved revenues of $5.269 billion, $8.244 billion, $11.943 billion and $12.208 billion, respectively; and net profits of $402 million, $1.510 billion, $2.220 billion and $2.448 billion, respectively.
It can be seen that although nucleic acid testing has greatly improved the revenue of sampling and testing organizations, but the actual profit is not high.
Compared with sampling and testing, midstream reagent producers are obviously more profitable. For example, in the first three quarters from 2019 to 2022, Mind Biological realized revenues of 181 million yuan, 959 million yuan, 2.830 billion yuan and 7.470 billion yuan, respectively; and realized net profits of 41.5258 million yuan, 469 million yuan, 1.413 billion yuan and 3.838 billion yuan, respectively. Wanfu Bio realized revenue of 2.072 billion yuan, 2.810 billion yuan, 3.361 billion yuan and 4.696 billion yuan respectively; and net profit of 387 million yuan, 634 million yuan, 634 million yuan and 1.240 billion yuan respectively. Kemper Bio achieved revenues of $729 million, $1.354 billion, $2.673 billion and $4.259 billion, respectively; and net profits of $147 million, $363 million, $852 million and $1.488 billion, respectively.
One of the few companies involved in both upstream equipment, midstream reagents and downstream testing is Daan Genetics, which will realize revenues of 1.098 billion yuan, 5.341 billion yuan, 7.664 billion yuan, and 9.335 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2019 to 2022; and net profits of 92.1818 million yuan, 2.449 billion yuan, 3.618 billion yuan, and 4.911 billion yuan, respectively. billion and 4.911 billion yuan.
Testing organizations can not collect money
But with the normalization of nucleic acid testing came to a screeching halt, announced around the "non-necessary not nucleic acid", some investment bankers analysts believe that some nucleic acid testing companies will be overloaded because of the 2022 will be lost in the first two years of the money earned back.
She believes that from the perspective of the secondary market, the performance growth gives the nucleic acid testing concept companies the opportunity to speculate on the stock price. Antibodies, enzymes and coenzymes, polymer plastic consumables manufacturers and diagnostic instruments, etc. and sample collection and preservation of reagents, nucleic acid extraction reagents and reagent production, such as the production of the middle and upper reaches of the manufacturers did earn money, but located in the downstream of the third-party testing laboratories days may not be so good.
As the industry's upstream main nucleic acid reagent raw materials Fipen Biological, 2019 to 2021, the gross margin of the main business were 92.81%, 94.02%, 88.43%; in the middle reaches of the enterprise, D'an gene in 2021 sales of new crown nucleic acid testing kits of the gross margin is also still up to 88%; but in downstream enterprises, the gold domain medicine in 2021, the third-party medical diagnostic services gross margin was only 47.2%.
In fact, nucleic acid testing is an unprofitable and laborious business for a portion of third-party testing laboratory companies located downstream. In fact, the profitability of the downstream is proportional to the amount of business scale. Because the new crown testing reagents in the country has long been included in the collection of procurement, profit margins are extremely limited, only the industry's leading companies have the ability to make money.
The aforementioned investment banker analysis, many do nucleic acid testing third-party testing laboratory enterprise threshold is not high, as long as you can get the qualification to operate, but the test volume is difficult to break through, can not form a scale effect to make money.
What's more, even the industry's large-scale third-party testing laboratory enterprises are now facing the risk of excessive growth in accounts receivable, which may be subjected to large impairment charges. A shares, for example, several third-party testing laboratories listed companies have seen a super-substantial increase in the proportion of accounts receivable.
As of the first three quarters of 2021, Goldcorp Medical realized revenue of 12.208 billion yuan, of which accounts receivable amounted to 7.433 billion yuan, accounting for 60.89% of operating income, up 66.65% year-on-year; Dean Diagnostics realized revenue of 15.63 billion yuan, of which accounts receivable amounted to 10.754 billion yuan, accounting for 68.8% of operating income, up 76.75% year-on-year.
In contrast, the middle and upper reaches of the enterprise is basically no payback pressure, often accounts to the middle and upper reaches of the enterprise before shipping to the downstream.
Under the pressure of payment back, there have been nucleic acid testing companies and the purchase of services in court. Beijing Municipal Higher People's Court announced on November 29th civil ruling shows that Beijing Main Medical Laboratory Co., Ltd. sued the people's government of Yongding Town, Mentougou District, Beijing and Beijing Mentougou District Maternity and Child Health Hospital, requesting that the other party should pay the test fee to Main in accordance with the standard of 180 yuan per person price.
And the volume of smaller nucleic acid test kiosks have also begun to have low-priced transfers from Baidu love procurement, idle fish and other platforms found that some nucleic acid kiosks business even hit the three or five thousand yuan, or even a few hundred dollars of the "floor price" resale,
A number of listed companies of the concept of nucleic acid testing, said that not only the face of price The problem of decline, but also face the risk of business shrinkage, will return to the business before the epidemic normalization.
As Lanwei Medical said in this regard, "the business will not have a big impact, the company in the epidemic of other testing business is doing very well, will strengthen in addition to nucleic acid testing this business." Daan gene in an interview with surging news said, "this year's business will not be affected, this impact will be next year, but also depends on the adjustment of specific policies." Huada Gene, on the other hand, said, "nucleic acid testing is not the direction of our development, the business will return to the state before the epidemic, this year has begun to adjust, like expanding overseas business and so on."
And in fact, there are companies that have long begun to plan for a way back.2022 In November, Daan genes multiple testing reagents to reduce the price of nearly seventy percent, to open the market price war in the era of the post-New Crown, Shengxiang Biological is a succession of acquisitions, to a number of directions to expand the business.