The reporter found out that at the beginning of the year, there were about ten cities that publicly announced the implementation of one city, one policy pilot, including Fuzhou, Xiamen, Changsha, Hangzhou, Jinan, Ningbo and Wuhan. The latest information shows that more cities will implement this policy in the future, and the "one city, one policy" for real estate regulation is expected to be widely promoted.
So what exactly is "one city, one policy"? What is the difference between this kind of real estate regulation and control thinking and before? At the moment when the overall sales of the property market are relatively stable, what impact will this move have on the local property market?
Local pilot projects have been expanded.
Liu Hongyu, director of Tsinghua University Real Estate Research Institute, recently wrote in the People's Forum that "one city, one policy" is an important strategy to implement "policy by city and classified guidance" and an "upgraded version".
He said that cities are different in economic development, urbanization level, land resources, population size and mobility, regional economic status and influence, and the characteristics of the real estate market in different cities will also be very different. However, China has a vast territory, and the development of the eastern, western, coastal inland, first-,second-,third-and fourth-tier cities is very different, which determines that the real estate market in China is quite different among cities. Obviously, it is unscientific to measure every city by the same standard.
Differences in the local property market can also be directly reflected in the data. The reporter learned from the local statistical departments that in the first three quarters of this year, the property market sales in most parts of the country were relatively stable, but there were also some places with large fluctuations and polarization between hot and cold.
For example, the housing sales area in Hainan Province in the first three quarters was 5,849,500 square meters, down 48.6% year-on-year; Housing sales reached 92.892 billion yuan, down 44.6% year-on-year. In the same period, the sales area of commercial housing in Beijing was 5.849 million square meters, up 43.7% year-on-year, of which the residential sales area was 495 1 10,000 square meters, up 62.2% year-on-year.
This difference between hot and cold in the real estate market also requires local governments to provide different policies to deal with it.
Liu Hongyu said that "one city, one policy" can be understood as a new control strategy of the central government, and it can also be understood as a long-term mechanism work plan for the stable and healthy development of the urban real estate market formulated by the local government under the guidance of the central government's "policy based on the city and classified guidance" in combination with local conditions. This is a local solution, and each city is unique.
"After the future plan is formed and announced, it will become a public commitment of local governments to the central and local people, and it will also lay the foundation for local governments to realize the transformation from passive regulation to active regulation." Liu Hongyu said.
The general direction of "one city, one policy" has been set. Since the beginning of this year, the pilot project of "one city, one policy" has been continuously expanded, and various localities have been constantly moving in real estate regulation and control. According to institutional statistics, in the first nine months of this year, the total number of real estate regulation and control in China exceeded 400 times, setting a new historical record.
For example, Wang Yuzhi, director of the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Shandong Province, said in an interview with the media recently that Shandong will firmly hold the bottom line of real estate market regulation. Accelerate the construction of the real estate market monitoring system and further rectify and standardize the market order. Guide Jinan and Qingdao to implement the plan of "one city, one policy" steadily, and organize other cities to study and formulate "one city, one policy" in due course.
As early as March 3 this year, the Shandong Provincial People's Government issued "Several Opinions on Promoting the Effective Implementation of the" Six Stability "Work". Regarding real estate, the document mentioned that Jinan and Qingdao should scientifically formulate the implementation plan of "one city, one policy" and implement the responsibility system for urban real estate regulation.
Xiang Yongdan, director of the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Zhejiang Province, also revealed in an interview with the media recently that the formulation of "one city, one policy" in Zhejiang Province 1 1 districts and cities should be fully completed this year. At present, Zhejiang Province has established a monitoring system for key real estate enterprises, and 86 large real estate development enterprises (headquarters) in the province have been included in the monitoring scope. Together with the Ali team, they developed the real estate core business information system to strengthen market analysis and monitoring.
On June 5438+ 10 this year, Xiang Yongdan also said that Zhejiang Province will earnestly implement the main responsibility of the city government, scientifically formulate and strictly implement long-term mechanisms and policies and measures in accordance with the requirements of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations". 20 19 Hangzhou and Ningbo will study and formulate the "one city, one policy" plan, and other cities will also do a good job in formulating the plan.
According to the data, the real estate market in Zhejiang Province remained stable in 20 18. The sales of newly-built commercial houses reached 97.55 million square meters, and the development investment in Zhejiang Province reached 994.5 billion yuan, a record high for the third consecutive year.
The latest statements of the housing and construction departments in Shandong and Zhejiang show that the local "one city, one policy" pilot will be further expanded on the basis of the beginning of the year.
In addition, Zhao Xinqun, director of the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Anhui Province, also said that the province adheres to the principle of "one city, one policy", closely focuses on the control objectives of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations, tamps down the main responsibility of cities, establishes and improves the scientific monitoring system, and makes efforts to adjust the supply structure of commercial housing and support the demand for self-occupied and improved housing.
And the recent measures to attract talents introduced by some cities mean loosening the purchase restriction in disguise? Are they going to "rob people" or "sell houses"?
In this regard, Zhuge's report on finding a house believes that the major aspects of the current property market regulation have not changed. For cities with overheating or obvious price increases, there will still be corresponding overweight measures, and it is difficult to have a comprehensive loosening. Even if Nanjing, Tianjin, Sanya and other cities introduce targeted measures to liberalize talent restrictions, it is not difficult to see that they are either limited to remote areas or only targeted at specific groups, which is in line with the fine-tuning of "one city, one policy" and cannot effectively support the rise in housing prices. On the contrary,
The central government has the means of evaluation.
While local governments are promoting the "one city, one policy" of real estate regulation and control, the central government has not let go, but plans to establish a real estate market monitoring and early warning system, real-time monitoring and regular evaluation of the housing market in various cities, and establish an evaluation, assessment and accountability mechanism for regulation and control.
Housing online signing and filing is an important part of the national real estate market monitoring and early warning system.
Online housing registration has multiple purposes. First, it can prevent one room from selling more. Second, it can enable relevant departments to master the transaction information of houses and provide data basis for judging the trend of the real estate market.
Liu Hongyu believes that because China has not conducted a housing census for a long time, there is a general lack of information on housing stock and use in various places. Although some cities have estimated by using information such as water and electricity, housing property registration information or sampling survey, the error is generally large, which can not meet the needs of accurate housing development planning.
Under the background that the central government has promoted the long-term mechanism of real estate regulation and control in recent years, the nationwide networking of housing online signing and filing information can provide strong support for the long-term management mechanism of "one city, one policy" and lay the foundation for establishing a new regulation and control mechanism of daily monitoring, monthly analysis, quarterly evaluation and annual assessment of the real estate market.
On March 6th, Vice Premier The Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and Vice Premier the State Council inspected the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and pointed out that it is necessary to establish a scientific monitoring system to ensure timely, accurate and full coverage of data, accelerate the construction of a national real estate market monitoring system based on big data, and provide technical support for analyzing and judging the real estate market situation and implementing effective regulation.
The reporter was previously informed that promoting the networking of housing network signing and filing is a key task of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to promote the regulation of the property market this year, and 150 key cities across the country have been included in this work. Up to now, the online housing registration systems in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Chongqing have been networked nationwide. The purpose of this work is to find out the basic situation of housing in key cities in China 150, which is expected to provide first-hand basic materials for implementing "one city, one policy" and formulating and implementing precise real estate control measures.
The networking of information can provide direct data for monitoring at the central level, and then provide decision-making basis for assessing local and even accountability.
Relevant cases have been reflected. In April this year, according to the requirements of monthly analysis, quarterly evaluation and annual assessment determined by the long-term real estate mechanism scheme, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development gave early warning tips to six cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices in the first quarter of 20 19.
One month later, in May, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued an early warning to Foshan, Suzhou, Dalian and Nanning, four cities where the price index of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing increased greatly.
Xiang Li, head of market research department of Savills North China, said that although "one city, one policy" is being implemented in real estate regulation, allowing local governments to fine-tune policies according to actual conditions, it must also conform to the general direction of the central government. Once it does not meet the overall goal of the central government, the possibility of being stopped is still very high.
Liu Hongyu also said that the "one city, one policy" of each pilot city in the future will definitely need to adjust and optimize the policies currently being implemented. Breaking the mindset of "one city, one policy" means relaxing regulation and leaving necessary policy adjustment space on the basis of maintaining policy continuity and stability; Second, we should fully communicate before the introduction of the policy, and publicize and interpret it in time after the introduction to avoid over-interpretation or even misunderstanding of the policy.