Let's look at the scale change first. From the scale of 90 billion in the middle of last year to more than 50 billion now, let's look at the performance of the fund in the past year. The decline in the past year is about 30%, so we judge that a large number of people here still choose to cut their meat and leave. From the comment area, we can also see that countless investors are disappointed with this top fund manager.
As can be seen from the whole asset allocation structure of the fund, Zhang Kun's style of play is still pure equity allocation, holding it for a long time, waiting for the market to continue to grow and return. Some cash should be reserved to cope with the daily fluctuation of fund subscription and redemption. In terms of operation methods, Zhang Kun has never changed, and when the market comes, he may become a top-notch player again.
In terms of position performance, it is still dominated by liquor, and some industries such as medicine, finance and Internet have been deployed, and almost all of them have bought leading enterprises. From the perspective of liquor transfer, we think that he is not actively transferring positions, but passively reducing positions due to the limitation of the maximum allocation ratio of a single fund and the redemption pressure of some funds. The positions of $ Kweichow Moutai (SH6005 19)$ Yanghe and $ LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD (SZ000568)$ Wuliangye (SZ000858)$ of the four major wine enterprises are all close to the top allocation, which is close to the highest allocation 10%. In terms of liquor, we think there are three main factors that affect the overall performance: 1. But now the social zero data is depressed and the consumer demand is declining, which makes the funds lose confidence in the sustainable growth of many liquor companies. After all, the valuations we have given to liquor companies in recent years are the valuations of growth companies. 2. It is the promulgation of the "Prohibition Order". Although we haven't seen the official statement, there is no smoke without fire. It is estimated that many people will exercise restraint now. 3. Some time ago, northbound funds were sold at no cost, and the number one A-share leader also fell sharply in a short period of time, which also led to insufficient market confidence in the entire liquor industry.
In addition, we saw the allocation of Hong Kong stocks to increase their positions. Even though the overall capital scale was greatly reduced, we bought Tencent against the trend. Looking back on the past year, we can see that Zhang Kun has actually been buying Tencent, from 1865438+ 10,000 shares in the last quarter to 20 million shares today. Of course, after entering the fourth quarter, Tencent once again ushered in a key attack, which also brought this position to the fund? Loss.
In terms of banking stocks, China Merchants Bank's position has not changed, but due to the real estate crisis, financial concessions and other factors, the entire banking sector has lost confidence in its future. Even China Merchants Bank, the best retailer, cannot be independent of the market. In addition, China Merchants Bank is currently facing a crisis. How to adjust the internal future, whether the future development direction of the enterprise can continue, and how to face the strong challengers of the retail sector such as Ping An Bank will all be issues that China Merchants Bank needs to consider.
Finally, we found that Zhang Kun had cleared the position of Hikvision. In fact, we guessed it before the fund released its quarterly report. In sharp contrast to Zhang Kun, another market mogul, Feng Liu, chose to bet his reputation on Hikvision. Both of them are big names, and everyone has his own judgment on the future growth of the enterprise. As for who is right and who is wrong, Zhang Kun is always right at present, and it will take time to give us an answer in the future.
In a word, our interpretation of Mr. Zhang Kun has never changed. His style is like this. Jimin chose Yifangda blue chip to go to liquor. If the liquor industry is not good, there will definitely be many restrictions on the fund. In addition, such a large scale also makes it difficult for E Fund Blue Chip to easily adjust its position. Any slight change will be monitored by the market and cause panic, which is also the reason why this ship is difficult to turn around. If everyone thinks that these industries can continue to grow in the medium and long term, we think that now is the bottom time point for long-term allocation, and when the market improves, it will become the top flow again.
So there is no bottom.