Zhu Min: Housing renewal consumption needs new policies to encourage and support.
Looking forward to China's economy in 2023, Zhu Min, vice chairman of China International Economic Exchange Center and former vice president of the International Monetary Fund, believes that China's macroeconomic policy management needs to pay more and more attention to total demand management. Consumption and real estate are the two major gaps that lead to lower-than-expected economic growth this year. Next, we should expand residents' consumption and give priority to restoring and expanding consumption. At the same time, support housing and improve consumption.
Zhu Min said that the real estate sales data dropped significantly this year, and the real estate development investment data dropped by about 10% this year or the same period last year. The real estate industry can usually contribute 1 percentage point to GDP growth. At present, the real estate industry has not only failed to make contributions, but also dragged down economic growth.
Zhu Min believes that the problem of supporting housing to improve consumption is mainly consumption rather than supply. It is estimated that there will be about 6.5 million newlyweds this year. If each couple buys a new house of 100 square meter, there will be more than 600 million square meters, but at present, the total supply has reached 1 year, and the total supply is greater than the total demand, and the remaining demand lies in housing renewal. The consumption of housing renewal needs the encouragement and support of new policies to boost residents' confidence, especially the support for the second suite.
"We can't think that with the injection of liquidity, the real estate industry has stabilized the housing supply and will naturally rebound next year. Because the structure of its total demand and total supply is unbalanced, we still have to use policies. " Zhu Min said.
Ni Pengfei: China real estate should strive to achieve a "rebound soft landing"
At present, the situation of the real estate market is more severe, so it is common sense to take measures to stabilize the market. Ni Pengfei, director of the Urban and Competitiveness Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that China real estate should strive to achieve a "bouncing soft landing", conform to the development trend of landing gear shift transformation, offset the inertia of rapid decline in the market opportunity period, and prevent and resolve risks. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen policies to reverse the market opportunity period.
Ni Pengfei said that China real estate should strive to achieve a "leaping soft landing", and he put forward six suggestions:
1, cushioning the impact is a condition. We must prevent and slow down the influence of external uncertainty by accelerating economic recovery, increasing income and expanding employment.
2. "Baojiaolou" is the key point. It is necessary to speed up the solution of the "three arrows" obstruction, and establish a real estate rescue fund in combination with the construction of a new housing financing model for equity investment in enterprises and projects in danger or difficulty.
Dealing with debts is an important task. It is necessary to explore the establishment of a real estate guiding fund guided by the government, guide social participation, speed up strategic mergers and acquisitions, debt restructuring and asset revitalization, reshape and shrink the balance sheet of enterprises, and build a new model for enterprise development.
4. Expanding demand is the foundation. It is necessary to relax the conditions for buying houses and reduce the cost of buying houses. Improve the housing security system, and encourage state-owned enterprises or high-quality private enterprises to purchase affordable rental housing and * * * property housing for enterprises out of difficulties.
5. Stabilizing house prices is the key. Falling house prices will help reduce the cost of living and business, but it should be gradually digested. If the price drops too fast, some temporary control measures can be taken.
6. Reversing expectations is the guarantee. Do a good job in guiding public opinion, give play to the role of wind vane in first-and second-tier cities, let first-and second-tier cities pick up, reduce land supply in third-and fourth-tier cities and below, and gradually digest inventory.
Qin Hong: The development, profit, financing and target mode of housing enterprises should be transformed.
In the process of seeking a new development model, it is the only way for real estate enterprises to "live" and cross the cycle. Qin Hong, a senior researcher at the National Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China, director of the Urban Renewal Research Center and former director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that in the new stage of development, there are five changes in the transformation of real estate enterprises:
First, housing enterprises still need to optimize their development models. The demand scale of China real estate market is still huge, with both rigid demand and improving demand. Housing enterprises should optimize the development model according to the demand, such as improving the quality of product supply for housing enterprises according to the improved demand.
Second, housing enterprises should explore light asset business. The model developed in the past will reduce the sales cycle in the future. The strategy of light assets such as agent construction and service can be used as a new source model for housing enterprises to make profits, especially in recent years, the agent construction market has grown rapidly.
Third, housing enterprises should develop stock business, that is, urban renewal. In the future, China's urban development will change from urban expansion and extensive development in the past to focusing on internal high-quality development, so the transformation of housing enterprises should be combined with urban development transformation, and the important combination point is urban renewal.
Fourth, housing enterprises should explore growth-oriented business. In many developed countries, real estate enterprises are operating and managing assets, but the scale of assets operation and management of real estate enterprises in China is still very small.
Fifth, housing enterprises should seize policy opportunities. Seize policy opportunities such as rental housing demand and incremental expansion of infrastructure REITs.
In Qin Hong's view, housing enterprises need to transform from development, profitability, financing and target mode to a new development model: the development model is transformed from "three highs" to the integration of development, operation and service; The profit model changes from simple incremental development to stock renewal; The financing mode has changed from high debt to diversified stock bonds; The target mode of real estate enterprises has changed from pursuing scale and speed expansion to improving brand and quality.