From the beginning of July, the stock market began to move quickly, and all kinds of funds rushed into the market, which led to the rapid rise of the stock index, reaching a somewhat crazy level. Subsequently, the China Banking Regulatory Commission voiced its firm attitude to investigate and supervise illegal funds. With the flight of illegal funds, some of the main funds also followed suit, resulting in a large decline in the market. The market once panicked. By last Friday, the market began to stabilize and close the cross star, and the volume of transactions decreased, showing a wait-and-see state. Judging from the trend of Monday and Tuesday, the market is in a consolidation state after the plunge.
Personally, I think the stock market will continue to be bullish in the future, but it will be more stable and healthy. On July 16, the State Council released the data of China's GDP growth rate of 3.2% in the second quarter, which dropped from negative 6.8% to 3.2%. It can be seen that China's economy began to recover with remarkable results. Countries around the world spoke highly of China's GDP growth rate of 3.2%, saying that China's economic growth gave them hope and confidence to restart the economy. It is said that the stock market is a barometer of the economy, which is ahead of the economy. Under the background of China's current economic development, the stock market should not bear, so I think the bull market is still going on.
Recently, the A-share market has fluctuated greatly, leaving many investors at a loss. Will the market become a slow bull after the ups and downs, or will the bull market end from now on?
In my opinion, the real bull market will not be completed in a day, nor in a day, nor in a week, nor in a quarter.
In fact, the bull market of A shares did not start from now, but from the beginning of last year. After a long period of repeated shocks, it has begun to regain its upward trend. At present, the overall upward trend is obvious, and there will be adjustments during the period, but the bull market is not over.
In this volatile market, it is often difficult for many retail investors to make a profit, because their chips are easily washed away by bookmakers, and after the stock price rises, they feel that the investment is not worthwhile. In the end, I can only watch the index rise and miss the best investment period.
I said more than a year ago that A shares are in the historical process of de-retailing, and it will be more and more difficult for retail investors to make money in the future, so investors should change their investment ideas, change short-term investment into long-term investment, and change investment into institutional investment.
If you really have a very strong professional investment ability, can grasp the market dynamics, and have enough time to analyze and study the stock market, that is to say, you are a professional investor, you can maintain your own investment characteristics.
If you are just an ordinary investor, with neither professional knowledge nor rich practical experience, and even some basic indicators and terms are not clear, I just heard that investing in the stock market can make money, I don't think it is suitable for stock investment at all. It is better to entrust the funds to professional investors and make a fixed investment in the fund.
It is too early to say that the bull market is over! Don't change your point of view as soon as possible because of the mid-term shock adjustment of the stock market, and you may miss many subsequent markets. Looking at the market trend of the stock market, we should still divide it into short-term, middle-line and long-term, and look for answers from different time dimensions. This kind of thinking should be clear.
In the short to medium term, the stock market does have pressure. On the one hand, what is disclosed now is the semi-annual report in July and August, and this year is very special. In the first half of the year, although the domestic COVID-19 epidemic was well controlled, all walks of life did not fully recover, and some sectors and companies increased greatly, even divorced from their own fundamentals. The existence of this situation is also easy to fall immediately when the market is loose. Not only the stocks in this direction have the demand for callback, but also some poorly managed stocks have the demand for callback. If some stocks in the stock market fall, resulting in an empty atmosphere, if there is negative news, it will easily lead to a concentrated stampede and panic decline in the stock market. There is short-term pressure on the stock market at this stage.
So, in the medium and long term? Is it a mad cow or a slow cow after the plunge, or is the bull market over? Personally, it is not the time to judge whether the bull market is over, but what needs more attention is what opportunities there are in the stock market. How can I put it? If we analyze today's decline, although more than 90% of the stocks in the two cities have dropped significantly, the basic situation of the decline is different. The higher the valuation, the greater the decline, and the lower the valuation, the smaller the decline. Why is this happening? It is because in recent years, the decline of some low-valued sectors is limited, and the decline is naturally relatively small. Another situation is that some high-quality companies with a direction in the stock market are "killed by mistake". Some companies with better-than-expected second-quarter performance forecasts fell along with reasonable valuations. There is "manslaughter" in this situation.
So it is not important to care about the bull market now. It is important to find out what opportunities the stock market has lost because of the decline.
I'm glad to talk about your question, Ma Lao's views on the late A-share market! Let's be clear, this round of slow cattle has started, and the initial shock is inevitable, but in the medium and long term, it is a slow cattle pattern, and mad cattle will not appear again.
What I'm talking about is why the old horse said it was a slow bull market in the later period. Let's talk about it first Why have A shares been short bulls and long bears for 30 years? As investors know, domestic A-shares are highly cyclical. In the past 30 years, the alternating growth of bulls and bears is often the reason why many investors have suffered huge losses in the bull market. The reason for this trend is that at an economic forum, Huang Hongyuan, chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, publicly stated that retail investors are the main reason for the ups and downs of the market. I don't know how this conclusion was reached. Domestic insurance funds, securities currencies and public institutions, represented by long-term investment, all violated the original intention of long-term investment and frantically reduced their holdings when the market entered a rising period. Now, I don't know what to think.
The retail A-share market is the initial feature of any country's capital market, because the defects of imperfect system and immature investors in the initial stage of the capital market are the reasons for the rapid rise and fall of the market to a certain extent, while the reasons for the rapid rise and fall of the domestic market are in addition to the system of excessive issuance of new shares, which just makes the fund pool unbearable. Stock trading is a form of investment, while the domestic market has changed its nature and financing is too investment. In addition, although the top management has been advocating the protection of small and medium-sized investors, the result is only nine Niu Yi hairs. It can be seen from the punishment of fraud of listed companies that investors have not risen to an important position. These are just one or two reasons, and I won't elaborate on the others here.
The phenomenon of domestic A-shares mentioned above has been short and long in previous rounds of bull market, but the nature of this round of bull market should still be qualitatively different from previous rounds. Personally optimistic about the late domestic A-share market.
The foundation of the initial bull market has been formed. Only when the market gradually unfolds and says "mad cow" or "slow cow", we must first confirm whether the bull market has started now. Lao Ma believes that the bear market has now entered the early stage of the bull market, and the later stage is the spread of the bull market. Let's look at some pictures.
In 2006, it broke through the long-term downward trend and started a bull market.
20 14 broke through the long-term downward trend and started a bull market.
Now A shares have once again broken through the long-term downward trend, and bull market conditions have been formed.
The above are the starting characteristics of the basic typical bull market, and they are all breakthroughs in the long-term downward trend. This breakthrough shows that the downward trend has been reversed, so the conditions for a bull market have been met, but at the end of the bull market, bears are characterized by more shocks, but the shocks are gaining momentum.
From the above technical point of view, and from the fundamental and market situation, a round of epidemic at the beginning of the year completely plunged the global economy into a quagmire, and countries frantically released water to stimulate the economy. Domestically, after three rounds of RRR interest rate cuts, several reverse repurchase and medium-term loan interest rate cuts, countries have released more than one trillion yuan. Yesterday, the European Central Bank formulated more than 7 trillion yuan of economic stimulus policies, and the United States is formulating another 1 trillion yuan of economic stimulus policies. Easily, the capital market is expected to come out of a wave of market. Global water release, judging from the valuation of domestic A-shares, gave international capital investment conditions when it was at a low level for a long time, and now domestic liberalization of foreign investment is gradually increasing. Since last year, let's look at the inflow of funds from the north.
From the beginning of 20 19 to the present, the net inflow of funds from the north is nearly one trillion yuan. Judging from the trend line, the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect has been opened, and the capital has been in the trend of increasing its holdings of A shares for a long time, which reflects the attitude of foreign capital towards A shares. As far as the current valuation of A shares is concerned, it can be said that it has great advantages. You can question the capital of the north. In fact, this part of capital lies not in its quantity, but in an attitude. Different from domestic capital, foreign capital is more about identifying value, and the continuous inflow of foreign capital also recognizes the value of A shares. Coupled with technological breakthroughs, it can basically be judged that a bull market has been formed.
Why doesn't China have the background of the first two typical bull markets? In 2007, the global asset bubble was the reason, and the excessive issuance of US dollars led to overheating of the economy, including a large number of domestic currencies at that time. The excess of this currency, abundant bank funds, accelerated credit, and the inflow of funds into real estate and stock markets accelerated the formation of bubbles. The credit crisis in the United States in 2008 was the fuse, and the bursting of the bubble was a chicken feather. 20 15 is a pure leverage bull market, and the end of the bull market is also the end of the state's strict investigation of leverage. In this bull market, the early domestic high-level officials curbed the appropriateness of leverage and monetary easing. In addition, it can be seen from the repeated statements made by domestic high-level officials that the capital market has received unprecedented attention, and now China needs a stable market to make the IPO go on normally. It can be said that Slow Cow makes it easier for management to finish what they want to do.
Therefore, in summary, the probability of this round of bull market "slow cattle" trend is greater.
Traceable point of view: after the plunge, the bull market is not over yet, but it is not a crazy cow. After finishing, the A-share market is still a mad cow pattern.
Before answering this question, we must make clear the definitions of mad cow and slow cow. The slow bull recognized by most investors is equivalent to a long-term rise, while in the strict sense, the slow bull is the steady rise of the stock market with the steady advancement of economic fundamentals.
For the cognition of mad cow, investors define it as the stage of rising too fast and too fast, but there is no clear quantitative definition for the stage of rising too fast and too fast, just a feeling of investors.
Therefore, the A-share market has never been artificially divided into slow cattle and mad cattle. From the long period of 30 years, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 95.79 in the 1990s to 3320 at present, and the bottom kept rising, which is a classic slow bull market.
1, the historical data shows the rising time.
From 1992.4.23 to 1992.5.25, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 255.50% in 22 trading days;
From1992.1.20 to 1993.2. 16, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 279% in 60 trading days;
From 1994.7.29 to 1994.9. 12, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 200% in 32 trading days.
From 1996.2.7 to 1996.8.9, SSE 122 trading days rose by 67.39%;
From 1999. 12.29 to 200 1 1.6.6, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 65% in 338 trading days;
From August 9, 2006 to July 7, 2007 10.65438, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 28 1.90% in 288 trading days.
From 2008. 1 1.6 to July 29, 2009, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 179 trading days rose by 85.53%;
From 20 14. 10.29 to 2015.6.1,SSE 15438+053 trading days rose1/kloc-0.
From 20 19. 1.4 to 20 19.4.2, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 29% in 58 trading days;
As can be seen from the above data, the intermediate market and the big bull market worthy of participation in the history of A shares were completed in a short time. In other words, slow cattle is just a good wish.
Looking at it from another angle, wind statistics show that among more than 3,800 A-share listed companies, the annual increase of 90% stocks will basically be completed within 15 to 25 trading days, and the rest of the time will fluctuate sideways. Since individual stocks are linear, it is logically unreasonable to expect the index to rise slowly and steadily.
2. Why is slow cattle a luxury?
The stock market is the allocation place of social production factors, and only rapid flow can play the role of resource allocation.
Capital is much smarter than us. It knows that those companies and fields are profitable and will adjust themselves. If we think that the intervention is expected to be slow, it is against the laws of nature.
More importantly, the stock market, the mirror of human nature, reflects the ugly side of human nature. People naturally like to get rich quickly, which has never changed since human existence.
Besides, under the background of materialistic desire and anxiety, who doesn't want to realize financial freedom quickly and then change the trajectory of life?
3. The adjustment of the market last week was just a correction of the increase since July 1, and it was a violent dish washing by the organization, not a slow conversion of mad cows, because even mad cows have time to rest.
To sum up, the bull market is not over, and the mad cow will continue!
The bull market is not over, but it has slowed down. The current bull market is very different from the previous bull market. 1, the cycle of this bull market will be longer; This bull market is a structural bull market. If we understand the current bull market in the past, it is easy to have the problem of stepping on the air.
After the previous plunge, the mad cow became a slow cow. Since the bull market is not over, why should we say that this bull market is very different from the previous bull market? Moreover, most investors in this bull market may not make much money, and they will miss big opportunities in the process of always wondering whether it is a bull market.
First, the cycle of this bull market will be longer. In the past, the bull market ended in two or three years, and every time it started, it ushered in a bear market of three or five years. But this bull market will change, and its rising cycle will be longer, because this bull market has ushered in the reform stage during the period of its start. This stage of reform includes attracting medium and long-term funds to enter the market, changing the structure of market investors, increasing the proportion of funds invested in the stock market in the medium and long term, and making the market slow and bull market go longer.
Secondly, various systems to improve the stock market are under construction, and the ecological environment of the stock market is constantly changing. In this case, a relatively long-term and lasting bull market can be created.
In the past, the bull market came and went quickly, mainly because the speculative atmosphere in the market was too strong. Now the market is changing from speculation to investment. Obviously, the bull market in the later period of the stock market is not over, and it will go on for a long time.
Second, the structural bull market, artificial bull market. Every time it goes crazy, it is negative interest. This is because the market needs slow cattle, not crazy cattle, which has a bit of an artificial bull market. However, in order to avoid systemic risks in the stock market and prevent the stock market from becoming a speculative market again, this process of suppressing crazy cattle into slow cattle through negative interest rates has not changed the outcome of the bull market.
With the implementation of the GEM registration system and other policies, in fact, the structural bull market has come, and there are more and more stocks in the later period. It will not be an all-round bull market, but a bull market with market fluctuation as the core. This cycle will be very long.
However, the emergence of this bull market, not all stocks have opportunities, but the stock market where opportunities and risks coexist, and the bull market will also lose money.
In short, the bull market is not over yet. The bull market cycle will be very long. This bull market is not a comprehensive bull market, but a structural bull market with many opportunities and high risks. It's time to test investors' investment ability. If we still think that low price is gold and small market value is a big opportunity, then we will suffer.
Cows are more likely to slow down. The price-earnings ratio of the main board market is not high. All term stocks are still in the market. Many people are worried that the index will fall below 3000 points. This kind of worry is completely unnecessary.
Although defensive stocks have risen a lot in the early stage. But compared with cyclical stocks, its weight will be much lower. The impact on the market is limited.
Review several major cycle industry sectors. Few people hold high positions. If there is a serious shortage of institutions for this position. Basically, it hasn't been delivered yet These chips will be taken away by other institutions.
Netizens who are now short positions. You can try to do more. There is really no need to worry that the market will fall. Judging from the past history. The summer of highly defensive stocks will not cause any heavy blow to the bull market.
If cyclical stocks peak at a high level, they will fall back. It was the most dangerous time. At present, the situation is just the opposite Cyclical stocks are all on the floor. There is no safer place than now.
Now the global currency is loose. Most of the money flows into the stock market and commodity market. Pushing up the stock market is an inevitable result. Every country cares about the stock market. The A-share market is favorable frequently. The only drawback is that the top management doesn't want the stock market to rise too fast. Therefore, as soon as the stock market accelerated in the early stage, some institutions reduced their positions on rallies.
However, this lightening will not affect the continued development of the bull market at all. All economic indicators are improving. Foreign financial markets and bond markets are relatively stable. It won't have any effect on one share. The market outlook can be assured to do more.
Tell the truth, tell the truth, no nonsense, no rhetoric. Let's say something that everyone can understand today.
This question is in place, and it is also the most concerned issue of 65.438+0.7 billion retail investors at present. After all, whether the stock market is a bull market or the end of the bull market is directly related to the pockets of retail investors. If the bull market continues, it will definitely be full of pots. If the bull market is over, it must be deeply quilted.
At present, there are two clear concepts in the A-share market, that is, in 2020, the stock market will usher in a bull market of 1.0, and a bull market of 2.0 will soon be ushered in.
We can see that due to the epidemic, the stock market opened lower in 2020 and ushered in a decent rebound. Most investors earned more than 50%.
However, the rapid decline drowned this wave of rebound and quickly fell below the previous low. Many investors complain that the bear market is not over yet.
However, when retail investors were afraid, the bull market 1.0 ushered in a wave of rebound. On July 3, the mayor said that the bull market 1.0 was over and the market was about to usher in a wave of correction.
As a result, there was a week of decline. During this week's decline, funds from the north continued to flow out, and the market hot money bosses sold their stocks one after another.
On Monday, the president reminded investors that Bull Market 2.0 was coming, and hoped that investors could prepare for a new bull market.
Looking back at the last bull market on June 17, the president said that investors could enter Man Cang to operate, and most investors' income doubled, but a few investors still became bystanders.
Is the bull market over? In fact, the year before last, we made it very clear that the bull market of 1.0 was over, but the bull market of 2.0 has come slowly under the callback.
By this time, most investors, like the questioner, have been at a loss about the current stock market and don't know whether the stock will fall or rebound.
This is the key reason why 65.438+0.7 billion retail investors do not make money in the stock market. They can't figure out the core of the market cycle and can't grasp the hot spots in the current market.
Judging from the current trend, the bull market has ushered in 2.0. In the last two days, we can see the net inflow of funds northward.
The trading of major hot money is becoming more and more frequent, indicating that hot money will start to adjust positions in the short term and prepare to lay out the bull market 2.0 in the medium and long term.
The medium and long-term market of Bull Market 2.0 is fiercer and faster than that of Bull Market 1.0. If retail investors can't catch the last bus, they will miss the strongest bull market in 10 years.
But most investors still invest in stocks by getting all kinds of gossip and explanations from so-called analysts. Earn 100 when you earn, and lose 1000 when you lose.
On the whole, the ups and downs of the market are driven by funds, such as the continuous purchase of hot money and the continuous inflow of funds from the north, and the layout of private equity funds in Public Offering of Fund.
Most investors only use various indicators to analyze stocks, so it is difficult for retail investors to make profits even if the market rises from 3000 to 30000, which requires investors to change their inherent thinking.
The bull market should continue.
First, many bull markets rise slowly and fall sharply. Especially in the early days of the bull market, the confidence in holding shares is not sufficient. Often hesitate to rise and fall relatively quickly.
Second, the market has been in a long-term downturn. Many companies have low valuations and good dividend yields. Thanks to the low interest rate environment, there is a strong support for the valuation level of the whole market, and there is a potential demand for valuation repair.
Third, the system has changed, the funds have also changed, and economic expectations will be reflected in the stock market. At present, at least the future is optimistic, and it is estimated that the market will continue to rise.