Author Wang Han (Managing Director and Chief Economist of Industrial Securities) Zhuo Hong (Senior Macroeconomic Analyst of Industrial Securities) Li Daiyao (Macroeconomic Researcher of Industrial Securities)
In March, the number of non-farm employees in the United States increased by 910.6 million after seasonal adjustment, far exceeding market expectations; The unemployment rate is 6%, which is the same as expected.
We believe that the non-agricultural growth of the United States in March far exceeded expectations, and the recovery of the service industry entered the "fast lane". In March, the US job market continued to recover rapidly, and non-agricultural employment increased by 910.6 million, the highest value for seven consecutive months. The rapid decline of the epidemic has stimulated the rapid growth of employment in the service industry, with the number of employees in hotels, leisure and education leading, with 280,000 and 65,438+10,000 respectively. The construction industry benefited from the booming real estate market and the weakening of the influence of cold weather, and the employment increased by 654.38+065.438+ 10,000 people, which was equally bright. In addition, the rapid repair of the service industry has rapidly improved the employment situation of people with low academic qualifications. The unemployment rate of people with high school education or below decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 8.2%, which was significantly lower than the peak period of 2 1%.
Although the hourly wage has declined slightly, it is caused by the return of low-income groups. The average hourly wage in March decreased by 0. 1% month-on-month. In terms of industries, wages in construction, education and health industries, which are in the forefront of employment recovery, have all declined, and the return of low-income people may have caused a certain degree of drag on hourly wages. However, the number of employees and hourly wages in the hotel and leisure industry kept rising month-on-month, indicating that the employment market in the service industry still showed a trend of both supply and demand.
It is expected that there will still be a large "pit-filling" space for employment in the service industry in the near future, and the strong recovery is expected to continue. Judging from the recovery gap, the recovery gap of American service industry is still large. Compared with February 2020, the leisure hotel industry still has a recovery gap of 18.5%, corresponding to about 3130,000 people. This part of employment demand is directly related to residents' going out activities. High-frequency data show that the recent economic activities in the United States are still picking up rapidly, pointing to the employment recovery in the service industry or will continue to maintain a high slope.
Strong non-agricultural stimulus to the US bond interest rate and the US dollar index rose, and high-valued assets were still under pressure. After the release of non-agricultural data in March, the yield of US 10-year treasury bonds rose by 4 bp to 1.72%, 5-year treasury bonds rose by 7 bp to 0.98%, and the US dollar index rose by 0.2% to 93. 1. It is expected that in the future, the interest rate of US bonds will still have room to rise, and the fundamental pattern of "strong US and weak Europe" may support the US dollar index to continue to rise. Therefore, the high-value technology stocks and commodity markets of US stocks may continue to be under pressure.
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