The benign interaction between virtual capital and real capital. On the one hand, the healthy development of real capital will promote the healthy development of virtual capital. The creation and value multiplication of physical capital is the foundation of the existence and development of virtual capital. The healthier the development of physical capital, the more the value created and realized will multiply, the more solid the foundation for the existence and development of virtual capital will be, and the healthy development of virtual capital will be guaranteed. On the other hand, the healthy development of virtual capital will in turn promote the healthy development of physical capital. Virtual capital with convenient liquidity is the orientation to promote the efficient and rational allocation of physical capital and guide the flow of physical capital to the place where it can add the most value. The healthier the development of virtual capital, the more convenient its liquidity is to guide the rational allocation of physical capital, thus promoting the healthy development of physical capital. For example, in the United States in the 1990s, on the one hand, its physical capital successfully realized the strategic transformation with intangible knowledge capital as the core, and its value-added ability was greatly enhanced, thus supporting the healthy development of its virtual capital. On the other hand, the healthy development of virtual capital in the United States, in turn, successfully attracts and guides real capital to the place where the value can increase exponentially-knowledge capital, thus promoting the strategic transformation of the United States with knowledge capital as the core. In 1990s, the benign interaction between American fictitious capital and real capital promoted the prosperity of the whole social economy.
The vicious interaction between virtual capital and real capital. On the one hand, the abnormal development of real capital will hinder the development of virtual capital. The more abnormal the development of real capital is, the less the value increment it creates and realizes, and sometimes even negative, so that the foundation for the existence and development of virtual capital will become smaller and smaller, and its development will naturally be hindered. On the other hand, the abnormal development of virtual capital will in turn hinder the development of physical capital. Fictitious capital with abnormal liquidity is the forerunner of invalid and abnormal allocation of physical capital. It leads real capital to places where it can't effectively increase its value, but it is most likely to grab excess profits-super monopoly capital, speculative unproductive capital, etc. The more abnormal the development of virtual capital, the more convenient its liquidity can guide the real capital to flow to places where it can not effectively increase its value, thus hindering the development of real capital. For example, in the East Asian economies in the middle and late 1990s, on the one hand, their real capital is low in knowledge, unreasonable in structure and uneconomical in scale, and the value proliferation of real capital is greatly reduced, sometimes even negative, thus the foundation for the existence and development of their virtual capital is getting smaller and smaller, and finally the development of their virtual capital is seriously hindered. On the other hand, the abnormal development of its virtual capital in turn leads to the ineffective allocation of real capital, thus hindering the development of real capital. The vicious interaction between virtual capital and real capital in East Asian economies in the middle and late 1990s finally led to the East Asian economic crisis.
2. The quantitative relationship between virtual capital and real capital.
Because virtual capital and real capital are two different aspects of the same capital, they should be equal in quantity stipulation at the initial moment, but once they are produced, the situation has changed substantially, and virtual capital and real capital have their own special development laws in quantity stipulation. In other words, they have become commodities, and the prices of these commodities have a unique movement and determination method. (2) Because the development speed of virtual capital is much faster than that of real capital, the proportion of stock and flow of real capital in the total social capital shows a relatively decreasing trend. When the ratio of virtual capital to real capital is within a certain range, the normal change of either party will cause the normal change of the other party. When their quantitative proportional relationship exceeds a certain range, the change of any one of them will cause disastrous changes of the other. The quantitative relationship between virtual capital and real capital is an important tool to adjust the total social capital. Because of the controllability and maneuverability of primary traditional virtual capital, people usually regard it as an instrumental variable to adjust the total social capital, so the quantitative relationship between virtual capital and real capital is transformed into the quantitative relationship between real capital and primary traditional virtual capital. Regarding the quantitative relationship between virtual capital and real capital, we use the simplified total supply and demand analysis method to make a concrete analysis:
The total supply and demand relationship of real capital is well known. Its total supply is directly proportional to the price, its total demand is inversely proportional to the price, and the price is negatively related to the price elasticity of total supply and total demand. The total supply and demand of virtual capital is very special, which is different from the total supply and demand of real capital. Its total supply is proportional to the price, and its total demand is also proportional to the price. The higher the price, the smaller the price elasticity of its total supply and total demand. On the contrary, its price elasticity is greater. In practice, it is characterized by the special phenomena of quantity and energy lag, price surge, price drop and quantity and energy drop when the price plummets (Figure 65438+).
In figure 1, for the convenience of analysis, we assume that the prices of virtual capital and real capital at key points are the same in quantity but different in units. According to the difference between the quantity of virtual capital and real capital and the total supply and demand relationship, we divide the quantity relationship between virtual capital and real capital into the following four categories:
First of all, the quantitative relationship between virtual capital and real capital is sunspot. This quantitative relationship is reflected in the area of AQ 1Q 1' a', which shows that the ratio of virtual capital to real capital is less than the minimum normal critical value of 0Q 1'/0Q 1 (sunspot trap). As a result of the interaction between the total supply and demand of virtual capital and real capital in this area, the whole social capital has shrunk seriously and the social wealth has depreciated abnormally, just like a celestial body. The formation mechanism is as follows: the development of real capital is seriously hindered-its total demand D'D curve moves to the lower left-its total supply S 'curve moves to the lower right-its value shrinks rapidly-its profitability drops sharply until it goes bankrupt at a loss-its total demand D'd curve moves to the lower left-its total supply S 'curve moves to the lower left-its value shrinks rapidly-the development of real capital. Being blocked ... The final result is that the total capital of the whole society, especially virtual capital, will shrink rapidly, thus forming a capital sunspot, which will lead to a sunspot economy or economic crisis. For example, according to the data of IFC1July, 1999, during the period of 1996- 1997, Thailand's real GDP (an indicator to measure the actual capital transformation) experienced a sharp negative growth (-20.6%), and its stock market and foreign exchange market (an indicator to measure the primary traditional virtual capital transformation) shrank. Obviously, during the period of 1996- 1997, there was an interactive relationship between the virtual capital and the real capital in Southeast Asian countries. This quantitative relationship is a huge retrogression and disaster for the total capital of the whole society, but this situation will not last long. After the disaster, the expectations of various economic entities tend to be stable, and the supply and demand of virtual capital and physical capital began to increase, and the proportion began to recover. When this ratio exceeds the minimum normal critical value of 0Q 1'/0Q 1 (sunspot trap), the quantitative relationship between virtual and real capital changes qualitatively.
Secondly, the quantitative relationship between virtual capital and real capital is stagnant. This quantitative relationship is reflected in BQ2Q2' b' area except AQ 1Q 1' a', which shows that the ratio of virtual capital to real capital is greater than the lowest normal critical value OQ 1'/OQ 1 but less than the average normal critical value 0Q2'/0Q2, and the virtual capital in this area. Its formation mechanism is as follows: the rise and fall of real capital stagnates-its D'D curve moves slowly (lower right or upper left)-its S 'curve moves slowly-its value changes slightly-its profitability changes slowly-its D'd curve moves slowly-its value changes slightly-the rise and fall of virtual capital stagnates-the rise and fall of real capital. For example, during the period of 1993- 1994, the real growth rate of Mexico's GDP was -2.6%, and its stock market value actually shrank by 4. 1% (source as above). Obviously, during the period of 1993- 1994, there was an interactive and stagnant quantitative relationship between virtual capital and real capital in Mexico. This quantitative relationship will not last long. After a period of stagnation, the expectations of various economic entities tend to be optimistic, and the supply and demand of virtual capital and physical capital have increased, and the proportion has gradually increased. When this ratio exceeds the average normal critical value of 0Q2'/0Q2, the quantitative relationship between virtual capital and real capital becomes an expanded quantitative relationship.
Third, the quantitative relationship between virtual capital and real capital expansion. This quantitative relationship is reflected in CQ3C‘Q3' Q3' area, except bq2q 2‘b' b'. Its characteristic is that the ratio of virtual capital to real capital is greater than the average normal critical value of 0Q2'/0Q2 but less than the highest normal critical value of 0Q3'/0Q3. The interaction between the total supply and demand of virtual capital and real capital in this region will lead to the moderate expansion of the whole social capital and the rapid proliferation of social wealth, so it is called the quantitative relationship of expansion. On the one hand, the effective expansion of real capital will lead to the corresponding expansion of virtual capital. The effective expansion of real capital will lead to a corresponding increase in its value proliferation, which in turn will lead people to be optimistic about the expected return of virtual capital in the future, and people's positive expectations for the future will directly lead to the corresponding expansion of virtual capital. On the other hand, the effective expansion of virtual capital will in turn lead to the corresponding expansion of real capital. The effective expansion of virtual capital will lead to positive changes in the distribution structure of value proliferation (profit rate structure, exchange rate structure, interest rate structure and stock price structure, etc.). ), which will lead to an increase in the availability and liquidity of real capital, and then the real capital will expand accordingly. The formation mechanism is as follows: real capital expands healthily-its D'D curve moves to the upper left-its S 'curve moves correspondingly-its value rises normally-its profitability increases correspondingly-its D'd curve moves to the upper right-its S curve moves correspondingly-its virtual capital expands healthily-its real capital expands healthily ... The final result is to give the whole society. For example, during the period of 1990- 1996, the average real growth rate of American GDP was about 2%, its average real growth rate of profits and taxes was about 6%, and its average real growth rate of stock market value was about 18%. Obviously, during the period of 1990- 1996, there was a quantitative relationship between the virtual capital and the real capital in the United States. This quantitative relationship is an ideal relationship for the total capital of the whole society, but this situation will not last long. After a period of expansion, the expectations of various economic entities will be more optimistic, and the supply and demand of virtual capital and physical capital will further increase, and the proportion will further increase. When this ratio exceeds the highest normal critical value of 0Q3'/0Q3, the quantity relationship between virtual capital and real capital will become a bubble quantity relationship.
Fourth, the quantitative relationship between virtual and real capital bubbles. This quantitative relationship is reflected in the DQ4Q4' d' area except CQ3C' Q3', which shows that the ratio of virtual capital to real capital is greater than the highest normal critical value OQ3'/OQ3 but less than the bubble burst critical value 0Q4'/OQ4. The interaction between the total supply and demand of virtual capital and real capital in this respect will lead to the extraordinary expansion of the whole social capital and the extraordinary proliferation of social wealth, just like the soap bubble phenomenon in life, so it is called it. Its formation mechanism is as follows: the dynamic expansion of real capital-its D'D curve moves to the upper left and becomes horizontal-its S 'curve moves to the vertical correspondingly-its value expands abnormally-its profitability increases falsely correspondingly-its D'd curve moves to the upper right and becomes vertical correspondingly-its value expands abnormally-its real capital expands abnormally ... During the period of 1986- 1989, the real growth rate of Japan's GDP was 2.9%, 4.9%, 6.0% and 4.6% respectively, and its Zhengdong share price index rose from 1986 to 1989. Obviously, during the period of 1986- 1989, there was an interactive bubble-type quantitative relationship between Japanese virtual capital and real capital. This quantitative relationship is the most intoxicating and dangerous relationship for the whole society. All economic entities are blindly optimistic, the demand for virtual and real capital is far greater than its supply, and the total amount of capital, especially virtual capital, is rising wildly, but the good times are not long. When the ratio of virtual capital to real capital exceeds the critical value of bubble bursting OQ4'/OQ4, the capital bubble will burst suddenly, and the relationship between virtual capital and real capital will enter the next round.
3. The relationship between virtual capital and real capital supervision
According to the previous qualitative and quantitative analysis, we can see that the quantitative relationship between different types of virtual capital and real capital brings completely different development results, among which the expanded quantitative relationship is the most ideal quantitative relationship needed to develop the economy. The CQ3C' Q3' region except BQ2Q2' b' in the figure is the ideal region for the operation of virtual capital and real capital, and it is also the best target region for the regulation of virtual capital and real capital. In view of the fact that virtual capital and real capital are located in different business areas, the regulatory authorities can take corresponding regulatory measures for comprehensive supervision to achieve the required regulatory objectives. When virtual and real capital runs in the sunspot area of AQ 1Q 1' a' or the stagnant area of BQ2Q2' b' except AQ 1Q 1' a', the regulatory authorities can adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to push up the ratio of virtual and real capital to make it enter the regulatory target area. When virtual capital and real capital operate in the expansion area other than CQ3C' Q3' except BQ2Q2' b, the regulatory authorities can adopt a balanced fiscal policy and monetary policy to keep the reasonable ratio of virtual capital and real capital within the regulatory target area. When virtual capital and real capital operate in the DQ4Q4' D' bubble area except CQ3C' Q3', the regulatory authorities can adopt a tight fiscal and monetary policy, reduce the ratio of virtual capital and real capital, and make them enter the regulatory target area.