The pig industry is also experiencing great changes in benefits and long-term low profits.
However, at present, the breeding level among large-scale pig farms is uneven, the management ability is quite different, and the cost control ability is not the same.
At present, when the pig market is in a downturn, the price of pigs around 7 yuan has directly caused many large-scale pig farms to fall into losses, but what worries pig farmers is that the number of sows and pigs in the industry is still at a high level, which means that the supply side of the pig market will be sufficient in 2023. Faced with this situation, how should pig farmers respond? How to accurately grasp the rhythm and trend and make a profit? How does the mass production mode favored by large-scale pig farms improve the operation quality and efficiency of pig farms? These problems are closely related to pig farmers' money bags.
In order to find the answers to these questions, on February 15, the webcast conference "Great Changes in Large-scale Pig Farms and Breakthroughs in Cross-cycle Management in the New Period" hosted by Ningbo Sansheng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. was successfully held.
Mr. Wang Zhong, a marketing expert in animal husbandry industry, an expert in pig market analysis and chief consultant of Mouyi Consulting, and Dr. Wang Yanchun, a senior technical expert in Ningbo Sansheng, shared and discussed topics such as "the logic and response of the new cycle" and "the impact of batch mode management on human efficiency". Teacher Wang Zhong said when sharing that there may be two peaks in the pig price market in 2023, and pig farmers should seize the opportunity.
The entire live broadcast attracted more than 20,000 people to watch online. This article takes you back to the wonderful views of experts.
Q 1: In recent years, China's pig industry has ushered in rapid development, especially the rapid growth in scale, but behind the rapid development, there are also many inefficient behaviors and deficiencies.
What are the main problems in large-scale pig farms?
Dr. Wang Yanchun: Let's talk about this topic in terms of batches.
In fact, at present, many pig farms, including some large or medium-sized pig farms, mainly think that mass production mode is the biggest advantage in biological safety and sow reproductive performance.
But in fact, through our calculation and some cases of group farms, we will find that the greater benefit of mass production mode is reflected in the fattening link, which is the real benefit amplifier of mass production mode.
Including precise nutrition, daily weight gain, health level and so on.
If the whole process of batch production is pulled from the breeding end to the seed conservation end and then to the fattening end, batch production can quickly supplement the number of pig farms, improve the slaughter level and reduce the cost under high market conditions.
Dr. Wang Yanchun, a senior technical expert of Ningbo Sansheng.
Teacher Wang Zhong: In the past few years, because the pig industry in China has ushered in rapid development, many enterprises have also expanded very quickly. The problem mainly lies in three aspects:
First, the thinking of many enterprises is problematic.
Especially many enterprises that used to make feed and now come to raise pigs.
We will find that when he enters the field of raising pigs, pigs can't be raised well because making feed is different from raising pigs. Furthermore, these feed enterprises should get into deeper trouble.
Second, when an enterprise grows bigger, there will be many levels and departments, which involves the issue of coordination. If we can't change and get through the problem of coordination, it will cause inefficiency.
Third, it is the issue of execution.
For many large enterprises, the pig farm management manuals used by everyone are basically the same, but why are some costs as high as 9 yuan, while others are only about 7.7 yuan? The gap between them has a great relationship with team execution.
Take the prevention and control of non-plague as an example. From the non-plague invasion of 20 18 to today, we can see that some large enterprises are very good at preventing non-plague, while some enterprises still have frequent problems today. Why? Not a way to prevent illegal behavior, but execution!
Wang Zhong, a marketing expert in animal husbandry industry, an expert in pig market analysis, and the chief consultant of Mouyi Consulting.
Q2: With the advent of the era of large-scale pig breeding, what hardware or software support does a large-scale pig farm need to prepare to meet this era?
Dr. Wang Yanchun: First, in terms of software.
Many top-level groups, such as Muyuan and Wen's, have been well reflected in the intelligence of pig farms.
However, there are still many large pig farms, such as 1 1,000 pig farms with less than 20,000 pigs, which face many barriers in building digital software.
We often say that "building the future with numbers" is to help pig farm managers improve their management level through a more sophisticated, scientific and comprehensive pig data software.
Help front-line personnel to collect better data from the implementation of the first line of pig farms, and reflect the changes in pig farm production performance through effective data analysis, which will eventually land on management and profit improvement.
Second, the talent bottleneck.
Pig raising is a high-tech industry, such as breeding, precise nutrition, disease and health management, which requires very high talents.
Therefore, we should keep up with and supervise the training and implementation of personnel.
Third, the level of managers.
We found that no matter what kind of enterprises, there are always well-managed and poorly managed. The management level determines the management ability of an enterprise, as well as its profit and loss.
All these determine the software and hardware upgrade of large-scale pig farms in the future.
Teacher Wang Zhong: In the past, managing a pig farm well relied on experience, but now it depends on data. Today, I see that all successful enterprises have realized "online", that is to say, all the data of all production links in pig farms are "real-time online" and cannot be changed manually. In this case, we can clearly understand the achievements of pig farm production and the problems behind it.
Another piece of hardware is also important for pig farms. Now many pig farms are facing the problem of employing and retaining people. Some hardware devices can replace some manpower.
It is understood that Muyuan pig farm has more than 6.5438+0.5 million smart devices online every day, which is very extensive.
Therefore, "real-time online software" and "intelligent hardware" are the two best preparations for large-scale pig farms to cope with the arrival of the large-scale era.
Q3: In terms of "cost reduction", what other aspects can scale pig farms break through?
Dr Wang Yanchun: We often talk about "reducing costs and increasing efficiency", which is a false proposition. Our logical point should be to improve the profit acquisition space through profit management, rather than blindly pursuing low cost.
Taking mass production as an example, our production managers can't always measure the input and output of mass production by the result of a breeding end, but should comprehensively measure the cost of comprehensive management, the improvement of human efficiency and pig efficiency, and the improvement of a certain production index at the seed conservation end and the fattening end.
For example, the increase of the index of non-productive days will completely cover our medical expenses, so we should look at this problem from another angle.
Teacher Wang Zhong: In the past, raising pigs was good and reducing costs was nothing more than planting, feeding, raising, managing and preventing. Now there is another environmental factor in raising pigs.
Pig enterprises with relatively low cost must be relatively advanced in breeding, such as Muyuan, Wenshi and Tianbang. The second is feed.
Feed accounts for a large part of the cost of farming. Take Muyuan as an example. The consumption of soybean meal in feed used in Mu Yuan is only about 3%, which greatly reduces its cost. Therefore, the cost of weaned piglets per mu is around 320 yuan, which is the value of reducing feed cost.
Q4: Group farming and disease management are important profit items in pig farm management. Only by doing these two things well can we get twice the result with half the effort. What are the plans for managing these two aspects?
Dr Wang Yanchun: Take sows as an example in the future. If we can do a good job in breeding, breeding and precise nutrition of reserve pigs, it will contribute greatly to the operating profit of the whole pig farm.
For example, batch estrus synchronization, each reserve pig entering the herd one day in advance, can achieve the standard of cost saving 15~20 yuan. If the scale is large, this piece of profit is considerable.
Another example is disease management. We found that the big week batch (35 days batch) can realize all-in and all-out of the delivery room. Even if there are medium and large-scale diseases such as blue ear disease and diarrhea in the pig farm, mass production can at least help the pig farm reduce the loss of more than 1/3, and also reduce the impact of diseases on the pig farm.
Q5: Some people say that our pig industry is very large now, and the group pig farms are even bigger. For example, they are all industrialized, intelligent and expanding in scale. In this environment, where should the business strategy direction of group farms/large-scale farms be tilted in 2023 so as not to be eliminated?
Teacher Wang Zhong: The first one is "counter-cyclical" operation, which is very important.
In other words, we reserve production capacity when the cycle is low, which will save costs, and release production capacity when the market is good, which will maximize benefits; The second is "flexibility". In recent years, many enterprises have been completely turned upside down.
Mu Yuan has done a good job in this respect. Anything can be sold as long as it can reduce business risks and improve business efficiency. For example, if the price of piglets is good, piglets can be sold, and if piglets lose money, they can continue to fatten and adjust their business strategies at any time.
Q6: According to their years of experience and cognition, what do you think is the healthiest management mode or production mode for a medium-sized pig farm?
Dr Wang Yanchun: The healthiest business model is the most suitable production model. Every enterprise is different. It mainly depends on whether the pursuit of pig farms is to make employees more comfortable, to make pigs healthier or to maximize profits, so this cannot be generalized.
Teacher Wang Zhong: Personally, medium-sized pig farms should go out of their own way, not only as flexible as retail investors, but also out of their own business model. Medium-sized pig farms can't do industrial chain like pig enterprises, but they can do "value chain".
Based on the integration of its own value, or being "integrated" by others, it can cooperate with some downstream enterprises to make a value chain.
Another way out is to create an "ecological circle". Whether it is cooperative farming or shareholding, it is much lighter than doing it yourself. Through the way of "value chain" and "ecological circle", medium-sized pig farms can find their own business model.
Q7: At the beginning of 2023, the trend of pig price is not optimistic, and the majority of farmers also want to know whether there is a good opportunity to raise pigs in 2023.
Teacher Wang Zhong: The pig price situation in 2023 can be described as "cautious optimism".
Why be cautious? Because the production capacity of the pig industry has not been transformed, it will take some time to bottom out.
Why be optimistic? Two aspects, one is that the epidemic has passed and consumption is recovering, which is fundamental.
Second, the top management very much hopes to stabilize the pig price in a reasonable range, so that pig farmers will not lose money and consumers will not eat expensive meat. Therefore, for this goal, the National Development and Reform Commission will have many control measures.
At the same time, there will be many secondary fattening in 2023, so it is called cautious optimism. Since cautious optimism means that there is still a chance to make money in 2023.
In 2023, the pig price may go out of a "W" shape, that is, there will be two peaks, which is actually an opportunity to make money. In 2023, the time for real profit will be shorter, but there will still be a good high point. Everyone should seize the opportunity as much as possible, do a good job in production and reduce costs.
Zhu haoduo Com host
In addition, Mr. Wang Zhong and Dr. Wang Yanchun shared their themes respectively.
Teacher Wang Zhong mentioned in the theme sharing of "Logic and Response of the New Cycle" that the pig cycle has always existed, but some people have grasped the cycle and some have failed it. Now a new cycle has arrived. This cycle has the characteristics that large enterprises are relatively more rational, the increase and decrease of production capacity are smaller and faster, the cycle amplitude is gradually reduced and the cycle duration is shorter. Under this cyclical feature, pig enterprises should plan their own production capacity and make plans for increase or decrease.
Teacher Wang Zhong believes that because the production capacity has not gone down, the mood of farmers is still controlling the rhythm of slaughter, so the pig price market in 2023 will still not be calm, and there will be two peaks with high probability.
Dr. Wang Yanchun said in the theme sharing of "Management and Case of Human Effect Batch Mode" that the current pig industry is facing difficulties such as high production cost, difficulty in recruiting people, difficulty in retaining people, and rising proportion of labor cost in breeding cost. In view of these problems, batch production mode can effectively improve the happiness index and work efficiency of pig farm employees and reduce labor costs.
The implementation of batch mode is helpful to optimize posts, increase work proficiency, specialize in specialized personnel and subdivide work, which is conducive to the cultivation of talents in enterprises.
At the same time, Wang Bo also stressed that large quantities have more advantages in labor efficiency than small quantities.
The online meeting lasted for 2 hours, and the difficulties and coping strategies faced by large-scale pig farms in the new cycle were deeply analyzed, which has practical guiding significance for pig farmers' production plan in 2023.